2022 Elliott Wave

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I’m doubtful the prices predicted by the OP can happen in 2022 but wow, if we get even close to the prices mentioned some of us will be very rich. Like I said, I’m doubtful but would love to be wrong. I think this bull cycoe is over & we have to wait until after the next halving to see over $100,000.

[1713852844]

1713852844

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

I’m doubtful the prices predicted by the OP can happen in 2022 but wow, if we get even close to the prices mentioned some of us will be very rich. Like I said, I’m doubtful but would love to be wrong. I think this bull cycoe is over & we have to wait until after the next halving to see over $100,000.

The Elliott Wave model and projections are indicative of price & structure, not time.

As stated, here are initial Fibonacci-based projection target zones for PRIMARY[5] wave; i.e. where the bull market could end, using BLX:BNC pricing...

Code:

$136,152 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.786%
$219,866 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.886%
$379,693 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 1.000%

[ImThour]

I’m doubtful the prices predicted by the OP can happen in 2022 but wow, if we get even close to the prices mentioned some of us will be very rich. Like I said, I’m doubtful but would love to be wrong. I think this bull cycoe is over & we have to wait until after the next halving to see over $100,000.

This is exactly what I am predicting to happen. We won't see us crossing $100k before the next halving.
My current analysis:

Halving 1:
8300% Up after First Halving - Took 335 Days
80% Down in 426 days

Halving 2:
2300% Up after Second Halving - Took 487 Days
75% Down in 396 days

Halving 3:
570% Up after Third Halving - Took 487 Days
Prediction: 70% Down in 426 days

[coolcoinz]

If you count from the bull market lows, every consecutive cycle was longer.
In the model above, if you count from the halving, the first cycle doesn't follow the pattern, you can clearly see that it was much shorter than the second one. There's completely no reason to estimate that if the first bottom was -75% and the second -70 the next one will be again lower by 5% it's a very far fetched prediction, pretty much like throwing the dice twice and scoring 6 on the first throw, 5 on the second, and putting the next bet on 4, because it's beginning to look like a pattern.

While I agree that counting bars from the day of halving can give you some idea of what might happen next, expecting every correction to be at -5%, just because it happened once is completely random.

[josegines]

I imagine that we will not know that this [c] is over until the market rebounds and exceeds a certain level, which confirms that this wave is over.

Or do you see any new signs of where this [c] might end?
>30000
30000
<30000

As for time, the end of PRIMARY [5] could be May-June/22?




On the other hand, what are the chances of seeing this triangle?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2022/01/20220110-btcusd-1.png

I imagine that we will not know that this [c] is over until the market rebounds and exceeds a certain level, which confirms that this wave is over.

Or do you see any new signs of where this [c] might end?
>30000
30000
<30000

As for time, the end of PRIMARY [5] could be May-June/22?

https://i.imgur.com/ECJMQ15.jpg


On the other hand, what are the chances of seeing this triangle?

https://i.imgur.com/1dt2dpV.jpg

Yes, a Triangle is possible, as described here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5379463.msg58964069#msg58964069

However, five impulsive waves up to new all-time highs would eliminate the Triangle scenario.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

[josegines]

didn't think it was right that (b) could be above MINOR B

In other words, it seems clear that the maximum was point (b) and from there the corrective wave would begin.

Is it totally ruled out that this rise in recent days is a wave D and there is still a last wave E to end the correction?
The low of January 24 was not accompanied by a large volume of capitulation, which could indicate that either it is not the definitive low, or we are in that great triangle that we have commented on.

It's been almost a month since we've seen you update, we already missed you.

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2022/01/20220110-btcusd-1.png

I imagine that we will not know that this [c] is over until the market rebounds and exceeds a certain level, which confirms that this wave is over.

Or do you see any new signs of where this [c] might end?
>30000
30000
<30000

As for time, the end of PRIMARY [5] could be May-June/22?

https://i.imgur.com/ECJMQ15.jpg


On the other hand, what are the chances of seeing this triangle?

https://i.imgur.com/1dt2dpV.jpg

Yes, a Triangle is possible, as described here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5379463.msg58964069#msg58964069

However, five impulsive waves up to new all-time highs would eliminate the Triangle scenario.

That's right, thanks for reminding me.

Since wave-B exceeded the high of wave-A (i.e. an Irregular B-wave), albeit very trivially; here are the potential wave-4 pullback scenarios to consider, in order of elimination...

1. If wave-C fails to decline to the wave-A low, then either
    i. a bullish Running Flat; or,
    ii. a bullish Ascending Triangle.

2. If wave-C declines to the wave-A low, then a bullish Regular Flat.

3. If wave-C exceeds the wave-A low, then either
    i. a bullish Expanded Flat; or,
    ii. a bullish Expanding Triangle.

Flat: https://i.ibb.co/C0NFQPD/EW-Flat.png
Triangle: https://i.ibb.co/0y0ZZff/EW-Triangle.jpg

Scenario 2 is the median of all scenarios, and hence is depicted on the charts for now.

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

didn't think it was right that (b) could be above MINOR B

In other words, it seems clear that the maximum was point (b) and from there the corrective wave would begin.

Is it totally ruled out that this rise in recent days is a wave D and there is still a last wave E to end the correction?
The low of January 24 was not accompanied by a large volume of capitulation, which could indicate that either it is not the definitive low, or we are in that great triangle that we have commented on.

It's been almost a month since we've seen you update, we already missed you.

Technically speaking, a wave-D of a possible Triangle cannot be ruled-out unless new all-time highs occur.

Consider the following timescales...

    PRIMARY[5]→INTERMEDIATE(2) pullback was 261 days.
    PRIMARY[5]→INTERMEDIATE(4) pullback was 285 days (if now complete).

    PRIMARY[4] pullback was 364 days.

Would not expect PRIMARY[5]→INTERMEDIATE(4) pullback to last longer than PRIMARY[4] pullback, and so must complete by mid-April 2022 if its a Triangle —fairly tight timelines and so a Triangle is probably unlikely.
 
There was no potential trend change in Bitcoin over the last month, so had nothing to update..!  
 

[josegines]

Considering the flat pattern, I was referring to this, a new low, accompanied by a large volume of capitulation, probably below $30k. The idea is that we could then go looking for a new ATH, after we've cleared out a few longs.

3. If wave-C exceeds the wave-A low, then either
    i. a bullish Expanded Flat; or,
    ii. a bullish Expanding Triangle.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Considering the flat pattern, I was referring to this, a new low, accompanied by a large volume of capitulation, probably below $30k. The idea is that we could then go looking for a new ATH, after we've cleared out a few longs.

3. If wave-C exceeds the wave-A low, then either
    i. a bullish Expanded Flat; or,
    ii. a bullish Expanding Triangle.

https://i.imgur.com/rIR0Img.jpg

This scenario comes into play if price drops to the 03-FEB-2022 low, before five impulsive waves occur. At this moment, three/four waves appear: https://i.ibb.co/dJzmYJx/btcusd.png

[josegines]

which Elliot's theory allows this?
I have always thought that the origin of a correction was necessarily the highest of all.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

which Elliot's theory allows this?
I have always thought that the origin of a correction was necessarily the highest of all.

https://i.imgur.com/alplQMS.jpg

It's an irregular B-wave. The topping process in 2021 created two irregular B-waves:
https://i.ibb.co/vckfGsv/b-wave.png

Waves can truncate or be irregular, and hence create orthodox or unorthodox tops and bottoms, see page 31:
https://www.investmenttheory.org/uploads/3/4/8/2/34825752/elliott-wave-principle.pdf

The entire structure; i.e. a short wave-A, an irregular wave-B, and long wave-C, is known as an Elongated Flat:
https://blog.hycmlab.com/elliott-waves-other-flat-patterns/

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

[ImThour]

Rule of Elliot Wave: the third wave cannot be shorter than wave one, three, and five.
In this case, 3rd is shorter than 5th.

What do you say?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Rule of Elliot Wave: the third wave cannot be shorter than wave one, three, and five.
In this case, 3rd is shorter than 5th.

What do you say?

Rule: Wave 3 can't be the shortest in terms of points; therefore...

—if Wave 1 is the largest, then Wave 3 must be larger than Wave 5; or,
—if Wave 5 is the largest, then Wave 3 must be larger than Wave 1.


 

[drays]

Rule: Wave 3 can't be the shortest in terms of points; therefore...
 

"in terms of points" means "in terms of of percentage gain", right? So suppose the time is not a factor here. Do I understand it correctly?

One other question, if you don't mind...
https://elliottwaveplus.com/guide-2-wave-notes-an-outline-of-the-wave-principle/ says regarding extension of impulsive waves:

Extension:  in impulses, usually just one of waves 1, 3 or 5 extend.  Wave 3 is the most likely to extend.  Rarely, both 3 and 5 extend.  Extensions can occur within extensions. For instance 3 of 3.  Sometimes, at the end of an impulse in which one of the waves extended, there are 9 total waves, and it is difficult to determine which wave extended.  There also can be extensions within extensions.  5 in extension manifests itself as 9, 13, 17, etc.  3 in extension can appear as a 7, 11, 15, etc.  If neither wave 1 or 3 is extended, expect wave 5 to extend, especially if volume is greater in the 5th than the 3rd.

I am unsure here - was any of the major waves extended up to this point (wave 1 or 3)?

Thanks for your time and for sharing your knowledge.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Rule: Wave 3 can't be the shortest in terms of points; therefore...
 

"in terms of points" means "in terms of of percentage gain", right? So suppose the time is not a factor here. Do I understand it correctly?

One other question, if you don't mind...
https://elliottwaveplus.com/guide-2-wave-notes-an-outline-of-the-wave-principle/ says regarding extension of impulsive waves:

Extension:  in impulses, usually just one of waves 1, 3 or 5 extend.  Wave 3 is the most likely to extend.  Rarely, both 3 and 5 extend.  Extensions can occur within extensions. For instance 3 of 3.  Sometimes, at the end of an impulse in which one of the waves extended, there are 9 total waves, and it is difficult to determine which wave extended.  There also can be extensions within extensions.  5 in extension manifests itself as 9, 13, 17, etc.  3 in extension can appear as a 7, 11, 15, etc.  If neither wave 1 or 3 is extended, expect wave 5 to extend, especially if volume is greater in the 5th than the 3rd.

I am unsure here - was any of the major waves extended up to this point (wave 1 or 3)?

Thanks for your time and for sharing your knowledge.

Waves are measured in number of points, not percentages. These are two very different measurements. On log charts, percentages can actually be larger than points. However, the waves are measured in terms of points.

Code:

PRIMARY[1] (2010-2013)
    INTERMEDIATE(1) extended and subdivided into MINOR degree waves.
    INTERMEDIATE(3) extended and subdivided into MINOR degree waves.
    INTERMEDIATE(5) did not extend and subdivide.

PRIMARY[3] (2015-2018)
    INTERMEDIATE(1) did not extend and subdivide.
    INTERMEDIATE(3) extended and subdivided into MINOR degree waves, which in turn, extended and subdivided into MINUTE degree waves.
    INTERMEDIATE(5) did not extend and subdivide.

PRIMARY[5] (2018-?)
    INTERMEDIATE(1) did not extend and subdivide.
    INTERMEDIATE(3) extended and subdivided into MINOR degree waves, which in turn, extended and subdivided into MINUTE degree waves.
    INTERMEDIATE(5) is currently undetermined.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

[josegines]

..

ATH in 2023?