drays
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2520
Merit: 1073
|
|
May 10, 2022, 03:35:12 PM Last edit: May 10, 2022, 06:58:09 PM by drays |
|
@xxxx123abcxxxx: do you see any valid EW count where APR-2021 (or NOV 2021) could be the top of the PRIMARY[5] wave? If it does exist, do you think it is less probable than the count you are considering currently?
Thank you for your time and input.
|
... this space is not for rent ...
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
"The nature of Bitcoin is such that once version 0.1 was released, the
core design was set in stone for the rest of its lifetime." -- Satoshi
|
|
|
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
|
|
|
|
Marrianadmii
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 12
Merit: 0
|
|
May 10, 2022, 06:18:26 PM |
|
What's the point of changing the chart everyday? Last post says Uptrend starts from $42k and now this post says the price to come to 0.618 i.e. $25k. This ain't Elliot if you changing it every month lol.
If you check Bitcoin chart on CME there is a huge gap to be filled between 24/25k. So going down very quickly I mean a scam wick to that level then back up again to start the uptrend
|
|
|
|
xxxx123abcxxxx (OP)
|
|
May 10, 2022, 06:59:21 PM |
|
@xxxx123abcxxxx: do you see a viable EW count where APR-2021 (or NOV 2021) could be considered the top of the PRIMARY[5] wave? If it does exist, do you think it is less probable than the count you are considering currently?
Thanks for your input.
The doomsday Elliott Wave count may begin to be considered if BTC declines below $25K and/or if GBTC declines below $17.40...
|
|
|
|
Marrianadmii
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 12
Merit: 0
|
|
May 10, 2022, 09:39:21 PM |
|
I would like you to analyze the total crypto marketcap better than looking only at btc. If you check the Total cap chart it's so obvious that the first wave starts in 2015 at around 4 billions and for this reason the end of the first cycle wave 1 will end around 2026 with market cap around 33 trillions. Sorry I can't post charts to show you
|
|
|
|
xxxx123abcxxxx (OP)
|
|
May 10, 2022, 10:22:17 PM Last edit: May 10, 2022, 10:35:20 PM by xxxx123abcxxxx |
|
I would like you to analyze the total crypto marketcap better than looking only at btc. If you check the Total cap chart it's so obvious that the first wave starts in 2015 at around 4 billions and for this reason the end of the first cycle wave 1 will end around 2026 with market cap around 33 trillions. Sorry I can't post charts to show you
Actually, the Total Crypto Marketcap chart may suggest the doomsday Elliott Wave count. The final fifth wave (JUN-2021 to NOV-2021) clearly unfolded in a 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive structure which isn't so apparent or present on BTC/GBTC charts... Total Crypto Marketcap: https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2022/05/20220510-total.png
|
|
|
|
josegines
|
|
May 12, 2022, 03:38:50 PM |
|
@xxxx123abcxxxx: do you see a viable EW count where APR-2021 (or NOV 2021) could be considered the top of the PRIMARY[5] wave? If it does exist, do you think it is less probable than the count you are considering currently?
Thanks for your input.
The doomsday Elliott Wave count may begin to be considered if BTC declines below $25K and/or if GBTC declines below $17.40... [ why do you draw CICLE II for $1700, when in another post you talked about -90%, what is +7000$? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5379463.msg58906541#msg58906541
|
|
|
|
xxxx123abcxxxx (OP)
|
|
May 12, 2022, 04:00:14 PM |
|
In the Elliott Wave model, a complete market cycle sees a higher degree Wave-2 retrace back to the prior lower degree Wave-4, see here: https://i.ibb.co/7bsCnph/ew.pngIn regards to Bitcoin, the prior degree Wave-4 is PRIMARY[4] low around $3100. Also, the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the entire cycle is around $1680.
|
|
|
|
CookieFactory
Member
Offline
Activity: 118
Merit: 19
|
|
May 16, 2022, 05:04:17 PM |
|
Seems like this week will be an inflection point in traditional markets and as it were, transitively for Bitcoin. I personally believe there will be a trend reversal and am targeting 4200 (+/- 50) on the S&P by EOD Friday. Let's see.
|
|
|
|
xxxx123abcxxxx (OP)
|
|
May 16, 2022, 05:16:09 PM |
|
Seems like this week will be an inflection point in traditional markets and as it were, transitively for Bitcoin. I personally believe there will be a trend reversal and am targeting 4200 (+/- 50) on the S&P by EOD Friday. Let's see.
Yes, it does appear that the equity indices may have bottomed; latest Elliott Wave counts here: https://12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com/2022/05/14/2022-may-14/
|
|
|
|
CookieFactory
Member
Offline
Activity: 118
Merit: 19
|
|
May 16, 2022, 09:07:34 PM |
|
Seems like this week will be an inflection point in traditional markets and as it were, transitively for Bitcoin. I personally believe there will be a trend reversal and am targeting 4200 (+/- 50) on the S&P by EOD Friday. Let's see.
Yes, it does appear that the equity indices may have bottomed; latest Elliott Wave counts here: https://12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com/2022/05/14/2022-may-14/ Ah interesting indeed. My (wholly unscientific) pulse on investor sentiment and expectations are that some ~45% believe we'll see a bear market rally (aka dead cat bounce / bull trap) followed by new lows, 45% think we're going directly to new lows, and ~10% expect a trend reversal eventually onto new highs. From your EW count it seems you are part of this 3rd (highly contrarian) group - is that accurate?
|
|
|
|
xxxx123abcxxxx (OP)
|
|
May 16, 2022, 09:37:24 PM |
|
Ah interesting indeed.
My (wholly unscientific) pulse on investor sentiment and expectations are that some ~45% believe we'll see a bear market rally (aka dead cat bounce / bull trap) followed by new lows, 45% think we're going directly to new lows, and ~10% expect a trend reversal eventually onto new highs. From your EW count it seems you are part of this 3rd (highly contrarian) group - is that accurate?
Yes correct, currently expecting the equity indices to resume the bull market and head towards all-time highs by the US elections in Nov, perhaps sooner. Will revise and reconsider expectations if the S&P500 declines to 3500 zone.
|
|
|
|
MinMan
|
|
May 19, 2022, 08:58:52 AM |
|
Thankfully it didn't reach that 25k levels, nor anything under as far as I have seen anywhere. I know it is not a terrible deal if it reached there, but it is certainly not ideal to be there neither. Which is why I do not think that all those "doomsday" scenarios will not happen.
We already see a shot back above 30k very easily, didn't take long to do that, and I am not guessing anything marginal will happen neither, it will be quite boring to be fair. It will just slowly go back to 40k from here, or at least that's what I hope. With all the movements in the last days, with the prices hitting back to great levels, what does elliot wave say about the future?
|
|
|
|
xxxx123abcxxxx (OP)
|
|
May 19, 2022, 10:31:58 AM |
|
Thankfully it didn't reach that 25k levels, nor anything under as far as I have seen anywhere. I know it is not a terrible deal if it reached there, but it is certainly not ideal to be there neither. Which is why I do not think that all those "doomsday" scenarios will not happen.
We already see a shot back above 30k very easily, didn't take long to do that, and I am not guessing anything marginal will happen neither, it will be quite boring to be fair. It will just slowly go back to 40k from here, or at least that's what I hope. With all the movements in the last days, with the prices hitting back to great levels, what does elliot wave say about the future?
The current short-term expectation is the market may have already bottomed around $30K, or may revisit the $30K zone again as a double-bottom, or decline further to $28K or $25K zones. Sub $25K starts to require a reassessment of the entire long-term roadmap. The most optimistic short-term Elliott Wave count at the moment would be as follows: https://i.ibb.co/4fRzPHJ/btc.png
|
|
|
|
|
|
CookieFactory
Member
Offline
Activity: 118
Merit: 19
|
|
June 02, 2022, 07:47:07 PM |
|
Very interesting outlook on gold. Curious if you have a corresponding fundamentals thesis or is this strictly based on wave counts? Thanks.
|
|
|
|
xxxx123abcxxxx (OP)
|
|
June 02, 2022, 09:03:39 PM Last edit: June 02, 2022, 09:30:40 PM by xxxx123abcxxxx Merited by TheBeardedBaby (2) |
|
Very interesting outlook on gold. Curious if you have a corresponding fundamentals thesis or is this strictly based on wave counts? Thanks.
Gold is strongly influenced by monetary policy... 1970-1980: USA abandoned gold standard, 1970s Great Inflation driven by a large increase in money supply, the first real gold secular bull market of the 20th century, equities bear market. 1980-2000: Period of increasing interest rates, decrease in money supply, equities bull market, gold secular bear market. 2000-2022: Dotcom Crash, 9/11, Great Financial Crises, COVID-19. Period of decreasing interest rates and QE, increase in money supply, equities bear market, gold secular bull market. 2022-20XX: Period of increasing interest rates and QT, decrease in money supply, equities bull market, gold secular bear market. Elliott Wave... 1980-2000: 'Zigzag' structure bear market 2011-20XX: 'Flat' structure bear market
|
|
|
|
SoniBTC
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 6
Merit: 0
|
|
June 14, 2022, 12:57:16 PM |
|
the authors of these charts note waves and cycles, as if a person has the same length of arms and legs, think about it
just read it again
|
|
|
|
josegines
|
|
June 16, 2022, 10:56:23 AM |
|
Simply in May-June a cycle appears (281 days), which can be maximum or minimum. But cycles change. Sorry for the off topic. Just a little update. Finally it was Bottom, impossible to know if the next one, marked within a year, will be ATH or not.
|
|
|
|
xxxx123abcxxxx (OP)
|
|
June 16, 2022, 11:10:40 AM |
|
Bitcoin upcoming Fibonacci-derived support zones...
|
|
|
|
|