My take on the market

[Shasha80]

Well if it is for those people that have sold the peak, they really don't have to panic when the price of bitcoin goes $30k or lower. They've made significant profit and selling x2 when the price of bitcoin heads down to that price. It's known that the whales have always been making a lot of profit every cycle of the market and as a small investor and trader, we should think about how we're going to deal with the current situation and this may take long and be patient.

The problem is that many people are still late in making decisions, for example when the price of bitcoin goes up even to New ATH, they still want to keep going up again and even some time ago $100 was still a hot topic.
and when bitcoin plummeted as it is now, they were reluctant and too late to use it to buy them instead selling their assets.
this happens very often and not even just for one or two people but a lot of people

What you say is the reality that is happening today, many people make the wrong decisions. When the price of Bitcoin rises above $60k,
many people choose to hold Bitcoin over selling it. Then when the price of Bitcoin is currently experiencing a decline, many people panic
and sell the Bitcoin they have,  so the price of Bitcoin is falling even more. I always say that it is very important to learn Bitcoin first,
before finally deciding to invest in Bitcoin. So that many people understand how to make the right decisions, so at least understand
how Bitcoin works. For now people who have experienced losses, don't think about leaving the crypto world, the losses we experience
are lessons for us. We can start again from scratch to re-invest in crypto, especially now that the price of Bitcoin is very low,
we can start to enter the market now. Remember never to panic if the price of Bitcoin falls, as long as we don't sell it, we haven't suffered a loss.

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[Questat]

Panic selling happens in every drop occurs...
Panic selling happens during ATH (not to miss the chance)...
Buying and selling are still in the race. We can neither change this scenario as people had only take the look at the current trend, not for the future. Some people will say "I Will Hold" but later on, I'd sell them because I am worried that it drops more. This is how volatility influences people's mindset and it often changes depending on the situation.

[passwordnow]

Well if it is for those people that have sold the peak, they really don't have to panic when the price of bitcoin goes $30k or lower. They've made significant profit and selling x2 when the price of bitcoin heads down to that price. It's known that the whales have always been making a lot of profit every cycle of the market and as a small investor and trader, we should think about how we're going to deal with the current situation and this may take long and be patient.

The problem is that many people are still late in making decisions, for example when the price of bitcoin goes up even to New ATH, they still want to keep going up again and even some time ago $100 was still a hot topic.
and when bitcoin plummeted as it is now, they were reluctant and too late to use it to buy them instead selling their assets.
this happens very often and not even just for one or two people but a lot of people

Who doesn't want to see bitcoin going up further? All of us do but that's where the greed starts and based on experiences, we know that when it's already at its peak, we should start taking our profits and avoid being picky and greedy because we're aware that the dump is about to start soon. And we're all right with that because after bitcoin hit the last ATH, it has basically started to dump.

[pieppiep]

Good read, I'm one of the holders and this is also my stand point this time.

A year ago people were happy to see 30k, now they panic at 35k.

Honestly, I'm one of those who has sold earlier and that's why I think that I'm still cool with whatever is happening in the market. It's like a cycle or it actually is. We're close again to another Chinese new year and usually when it comes, the market is really bleeding. Who knows? The whales from China or wherever they are co-celebrating and cashing out money from the market for their another "prosperous" upcoming new year.

Hopefully, those people already sell their bitcoin when the price is at $69k

I think they do not have to panic seeing this situation. They can wait until the price back to $34k and start buying. Or they will not purchase anything if they are still afraid to enter the market.

Yes, we are close to Chinese New Year so we can expect that the market can be more bleed from this. Or those whales already prepare their money to buy at a low price and celebrate it by posting on their social media

But one thing that we should know is that the whales are already making a big profit from the peak and now, they are waiting for the best moment to accumulate more bitcoin from some of their profit.

Well if it is for those people that have sold the peak, they really don't have to panic when the price of bitcoin goes $30k or lower. They've made significant profit and selling x2 when the price of bitcoin heads down to that price. It's known that the whales have always been making a lot of profit every cycle of the market and as a small investor and trader, we should think about how we're going to deal with the current situation and this may take long and be patient.

There is only patience we can do in the current situations and stay calm down to prevent panic. Luckily, the price now is increased and back to $36k. I guess we can still hope that it will still increase this week and no matter if the increase is not happening fast, as long as the price can increase step by step, that will still be worth it for us.

By the way, congratulations to people who bought bitcoin at $33k-$34k yesterday because they are making a nice profit now. I speculate the price will still be up and down for the rest of this month so if you can use it for your benefit, you will make a good profit at the end of this month. It is up to you

[Poker Player]

I believe that in addition to the normal panic that many retail investors feel in situations like this, there is the disillusionment that the many bullish price predictions for the past year have failed, and by far. Remember S2F, the supercycle theory etc. So, if we are in a general market downturn and we add that, it is easy to understand a massive sell-off by retail investors, who tend to do the opposite of what should be done.

The reflection of the OP is quite good, what happens is that it will have little influence on these retail investors, who are driven by emotions rather than by reason.

[passwordnow]

Well if it is for those people that have sold the peak, they really don't have to panic when the price of bitcoin goes $30k or lower. They've made significant profit and selling x2 when the price of bitcoin heads down to that price. It's known that the whales have always been making a lot of profit every cycle of the market and as a small investor and trader, we should think about how we're going to deal with the current situation and this may take long and be patient.

There is only patience we can do in the current situations and stay calm down to prevent panic. Luckily, the price now is increased and back to $36k. I guess we can still hope that it will still increase this week and no matter if the increase is not happening fast, as long as the price can increase step by step, that will still be worth it for us.

By the way, congratulations to people who bought bitcoin at $33k-$34k yesterday because they are making a nice profit now. I speculate the price will still be up and down for the rest of this month so if you can use it for your benefit, you will make a good profit at the end of this month. It is up to you

$36k as it is and it's a good sign that after going low to $33k we have seen it bounce back with another $3k that quick. This is what I like with bitcoin. It bounces back quickly although the drop has been too heavy and a lot has been reduced to the former price.
Still, this is giving hope to the newer ones who have lessened their hope due to the fluctuations. But again, they shouldn't worry about such movements because that's the nature of bitcoin and they should be accustomed to it.

[TheUltraElite]

During the rise from 30k to all time high, I did assume the market to to drop back to 34k and test the support levels because it was crossed in a short period of time and I was in the belief that the support level had not developed much there. However a few months and the price continued above 50k and I assumed that I might have been wrong and support levels did become strong there.

I was eventually shown that my first assumption was correct, just that it was never tested till this month when prices dropped and the 35k support level was tested. I still consider the 30k mark to be the safer buying option or even lower if we see that. This is not the time to sell, do that again when bitcoin crosses beyond 50k.

Right now, just wait for lower prices to buy in.

[sheenshane]

buy the dip not the hype

dont listen to people that talk about fear, they have a one-sided view.
hype 'fear of missing out'
dip 'hoarders fear'

rational minds though
hype=buyers wait for correction
dip=buyers reward

hype=sellers reward
dip=sellers hoard time

Basically, this should what investors do and avoid not panicking and selling during the dip, I tend to agree with this idea.  When there's a dip, buyers would be the right time to enter the market and sellers should hoard their assets until the hype will come.  We know that there's no infinite growth of Bitcoin price or let's say the entire crypto market, corrections always occur at any time.  It always fluctuates creates a wave position that might up and down and when people listen to the FUD, it's expecting that the market will continue going down.

I believe that the market will not go down beyond $30k, for short traders who bought Bitcoin at the dip for sure they're happy to see their profit now while the earlier investors still hoarding their assets.

[Emitdama]

You're probably thinking that if everything is fine then what caused it to crash and why 30k again? There's so many people who feel fooled by media and youtubers. It was supposed to be at 100k, right?
There's so many factors that influence the price that it's impossible to predict the exact value and time. There's external and internal factors, with internals being the number of users, nodes, network upgrades, hash power, difficulty, number of transactions. External factors are things like the stock market, the attitude of various governments, pandemics, wars and so on.

I love this your write up, you took your time to come up with it. What I have learnt from this write up majorly is that we are having a global 'bad market' it not just about crypto but also stock markets. Every other aspects is for newbies who are yet to experience bitcoin in cycle of four years, because if they have believe me they will not be panicking and talk more of panic selling. I think life is about learning and growing, certainly they will learn from this one and perhaps do better in the future when the market goes bearish.

[Hypnosis00]

I believe that the market will not go down beyond $30k, for short traders who bought Bitcoin at the dip for sure they're happy to see their profit now while the earlier investors still hoarding their assets.

Perhaps, it was a happy moment to see that Bitcoin is going back to high again. I thought it drops more as it reaches $33k, it looks like it wasn't the time for the market to be at that bearish season, I think not this year.
I guess some people are celebrating right now seeing growth on their portfolio, I'm on it...

So my take on the market is that we can't predict the trend, nor are we able to see what happens next but instead, it remains unpredictable no matter what we do (TA's, chart reading, etc...)

[coolcoinz]

During the rise from 30k to all time high, I did assume the market to to drop back to 34k and test the support levels because it was crossed in a short period of time and I was in the belief that the support level had not developed much there. However a few months and the price continued above 50k and I assumed that I might have been wrong and support levels did become strong there.

I was eventually shown that my first assumption was correct, just that it was never tested till this month when prices dropped and the 35k support level was tested. I still consider the 30k mark to be the safer buying option or even lower if we see that. This is not the time to sell, do that again when bitcoin crosses beyond 50k.

Right now, just wait for lower prices to buy in.

According to the logarithmic regression band that some traders use to calculate future highs and lows the average price of Bitcoin right now is ~32k USD The lows of the band are at 19k.
Historically the lows of this band were always the lowest point to which Bitcoin was falling in a prolonged bear market and it often returned to and above the middle range.

I remember reading a thread some time last year where people were asking if Bitcoin will ever fall below 50k. Funny how in a bull market people tend to be unreasonable in one way and in bear the other.

I love this your write up, you took your time to come up with it. What I have learnt from this write up majorly is that we are having a global 'bad market' it not just about crypto but also stock markets. Every other aspects is for newbies who are yet to experience bitcoin in cycle of four years, because if they have believe me they will not be panicking and talk more of panic selling. I think life is about learning and growing, certainly they will learn from this one and perhaps do better in the future when the market goes bearish.

Thanks. Good luck with your investments.

Basically, this should what investors do and avoid not panicking and selling during the dip, I tend to agree with this idea.  When there's a dip, buyers would be the right time to enter the market and sellers should hoard their assets until the hype will come.  We know that there's no infinite growth of Bitcoin price or let's say the entire crypto market, corrections always occur at any time.  It always fluctuates creates a wave position that might up and down and when people listen to the FUD, it's expecting that the market will continue going down.

I believe that the market will not go down beyond $30k, for short traders who bought Bitcoin at the dip for sure they're happy to see their profit now while the earlier investors still hoarding their assets.

Selling in a downtrend isn't that bad as long as you do it early on. Unfortunately people tend to hold it off and every subsequent drop is like torture to them. When you put money on the line you need a plan. People should ask themselves if they can afford -50%. If not, they should set a stop loss or exit the market with a small profit in a bull market and be done with it. Worst thing you can do is invest money you can't live without, see it drop 50%, accept defeat and sell and then feel like shit for years.

[amishmanish]

So the fall has really just mirrored the stock falls due to rumors of Fed rate hikes. This may not just be the only reason as the actual fall is too great to explain this (40-50%). The geopolitical situation has definitely amplified this. Till the uncertainty recedes, we will continue to see falls. Yet, no matter what happens, the facts don't change that Bitcoin is still being considered by nation states and institutions. There have been worst falls earlier and this is also the best time to what some call "buidling".

So instead of panicking, the newbies who are stressed for their losses should really just hold onto their crypto, if they can and try to explore the space more for opportunities.

This isn't the time to care about price if you are in crypto for the long term. This is the time when you find your crypto niche and be ready for the revival.

--snip--
When the average guy hears all this doom and gloom in the news and finds out some of his friends lost their jobs, he goes to the bank and withdraws money. Inflation incites investing and spending, high interest rates and pandemic lockdowns work pretty much like news about a coming war and make people think of hoarding money.
Unfortunately, bitcoin is still seen as a volatile asset and instead of digital gold. We can joke that for it to be digital gold it would have to be losing 2% a year, like gold, but people will be people, most of them will never own a new car or be free of debt.

I always get confused about the economics behind this. Yet, the doom and gloom resulting in crashes can hardly be caused by the average retail investor trying to sell off his investments. I guess most people would like to jump out of risky investments but they don't react on the news; they react after the market itself has reacted. And the markets react due to the moves from BIG players.

I think if it was purely upto retail buyers, they could hardly care to selloff Bitcoin on the back of news about inflation. Yet, the selloffs by professionals is what leads to the panic. I assume that the average guy is as average as me. In that case, he mostly just prays for things to go back up, diamond handing his coins down to whatever comes, LOL.

[pieppiep]

Well if it is for those people that have sold the peak, they really don't have to panic when the price of bitcoin goes $30k or lower. They've made significant profit and selling x2 when the price of bitcoin heads down to that price. It's known that the whales have always been making a lot of profit every cycle of the market and as a small investor and trader, we should think about how we're going to deal with the current situation and this may take long and be patient.

There is only patience we can do in the current situations and stay calm down to prevent panic. Luckily, the price now is increased and back to $36k. I guess we can still hope that it will still increase this week and no matter if the increase is not happening fast, as long as the price can increase step by step, that will still be worth it for us.

By the way, congratulations to people who bought bitcoin at $33k-$34k yesterday because they are making a nice profit now. I speculate the price will still be up and down for the rest of this month so if you can use it for your benefit, you will make a good profit at the end of this month. It is up to you

$36k as it is and it's a good sign that after going low to $33k we have seen it bounce back with another $3k that quick. This is what I like with bitcoin. It bounces back quickly although the drop has been too heavy and a lot has been reduced to the former price.
Still, this is giving hope to the newer ones who have lessened their hope due to the fluctuations. But again, they shouldn't worry about such movements because that's the nature of bitcoin and they should be accustomed to it.

Finally, the price is back to $37k and the sign to rise is there so hopefully, the price will be back to $38k. Yes, the price can bounce back, although the price is not moving fast to the high price but we should gladly see this moment because we can profit from the coins. Bitcoin seems to have the power to lift the price to hope that it will be a good week for us. They should not worry about the fluctuations because they are part of the crypto price movements and we should try to benefit from that.

[coolcoinz]

Finally, the price is back to $37k and the sign to rise is there so hopefully, the price will be back to $38k. Yes, the price can bounce back, although the price is not moving fast to the high price but we should gladly see this moment because we can profit from the coins. Bitcoin seems to have the power to lift the price to hope that it will be a good week for us. They should not worry about the fluctuations because they are part of the crypto price movements and we should try to benefit from that.

You want it - you got it.


I'm pretty sure we need more time to break 40k, but with Bitcoin anything is possible. S&P 500 got a little bounce yesterday but is still much lower than it was 5 days ago. Nasdaq again lower today than it was on the 20th... This Bitcoin move is fueled purely by Bitcoin itself. It can be amplified or quashed by the stocks in the coming weeks. 

[passwordnow]

$36k as it is and it's a good sign that after going low to $33k we have seen it bounce back with another $3k that quick. This is what I like with bitcoin. It bounces back quickly although the drop has been too heavy and a lot has been reduced to the former price.
Still, this is giving hope to the newer ones who have lessened their hope due to the fluctuations. But again, they shouldn't worry about such movements because that's the nature of bitcoin and they should be accustomed to it.

Finally, the price is back to $37k and the sign to rise is there so hopefully, the price will be back to $38k. Yes, the price can bounce back, although the price is not moving fast to the high price but we should gladly see this moment because we can profit from the coins. Bitcoin seems to have the power to lift the price to hope that it will be a good week for us. They should not worry about the fluctuations because they are part of the crypto price movements and we should try to benefit from that.

Yes and also saw it hit $38k. You don't think it's fast but I think that it was, the price have moved fast but as usual, there will be some pauses that has to happen.
Like what happened after it has hit $38k, I thought that it will going to continue moving up to $39k but there's a delay somehow. But just as the usual thing for bitcoin, we don't know what's next for it and maybe a rapid move from $37k to $39k and $40k.

[BITCOIN4X]

Yes and also saw it hit $38k. You don't think it's fast but I think that it was, the price have moved fast but as usual, there will be some pauses that has to happen.
Like what happened after it has hit $38k, I thought that it will going to continue moving up to $39k but there's a delay somehow. But just as the usual thing for bitcoin, we don't know what's next for it and maybe a rapid move from $37k to $39k and $40k.

We might say things like this are becoming commonplace in the bitcoin market, but it's always possible to see them differently than before. It is important to see bitcoin recover after the market corrected since last year.

I have seen the price start to rise after experiencing a correction in the last few days. Now the bitcoin price has reached $38K, but it is still quite vulnerable to a decline. We can still expect the bitcoin price to rise above $40K by the end of January, but of course that's not guaranteed. Anyone who wants to buy must weigh the risks, also have to make their own analysis.

[taufik123]

Yes and also saw it hit $38k. You don't think it's fast but I think that it was, the price have moved fast but as usual, there will be some pauses that has to happen.
Like what happened after it has hit $38k, I thought that it will going to continue moving up to $39k but there's a delay somehow. But just as the usual thing for bitcoin, we don't know what's next for it and maybe a rapid move from $37k to $39k and $40k.

even the current price has reached the price of $33k and that's lower than the price you said. If the price continues to fall and the price may enter the $20k area. the market is bearish. the possibility of a rebound to the $40k area remains but certainly not that fast. Bitcoin was also faced with the FED's decision to raise interest rates.

[Darker45]

Will there ever be a time when people will set aside their emotions and stick to reason in their investments? Or perhaps, to those who are selling during the dip or are selling out of fear and panic, are you overinvested? That's probably the reason why you are severely affected with the correction. If a dip or a bear season, which is a normal occurrence in any market, gives you a sleepless night, perhaps you are investing more than you can afford to lose. Or is it simply a case of low risk tolerance? Or perhaps you simply don't belong to the Bitcoin market.

[virasog]

Well if it is for those people that have sold the peak, they really don't have to panic when the price of bitcoin goes $30k or lower. They've made significant profit and selling x2 when the price of bitcoin heads down to that price. It's known that the whales have always been making a lot of profit every cycle of the market and as a small investor and trader, we should think about how we're going to deal with the current situation and this may take long and be patient.

The problem is that many people are still late in making decisions, for example when the price of bitcoin goes up even to New ATH, they still want to keep going up again and even some time ago $100 was still a hot topic.
and when bitcoin plummeted as it is now, they were reluctant and too late to use it to buy them instead selling their assets.
this happens very often and not even just for one or two people but a lot of people

What you say is the reality that is happening today, many people make the wrong decisions. When the price of Bitcoin rises above $60k,
many people choose to hold Bitcoin over selling it. Then when the price of Bitcoin is currently experiencing a decline, many people panic
and sell the Bitcoin they have,  so the price of Bitcoin is falling even more. I always say that it is very important to learn Bitcoin first,
before finally deciding to invest in Bitcoin. So that many people understand how to make the right decisions, so at least understand
how Bitcoin works. For now people who have experienced losses, don't think about leaving the crypto world, the losses we experience
are lessons for us. We can start again from scratch to re-invest in crypto, especially now that the price of Bitcoin is very low,
we can start to enter the market now. Remember never to panic if the price of Bitcoin falls, as long as we don't sell it, we haven't suffered a loss.

Actually, no one is able to exactly predict the market and it is behaving opposite of expectations. The best thing we can do is to stay of this market for some time and let the market decide where it wants to go. Last two days, bitcoin moved from 33k to 39K but today again we are back to 35K. Unless, we see the clear direction of the market, it is better to hold our investment and do not take wrong decisions.

If you have money (USDT), you can buy some good altcoins in spot only. Do not do future trading in current market situations.

[pushups44]

I am open to hearing a bullish case on cryptocurrencies, though I respectfully disagree. I think the four-year cycles are still operating and that the reason why certain metrics are off this time is not just a change in some fundamental forces, but also the maturity of the market that will bring about less meteoric bull markets (though still significant compared to more mature industries).

We also have looming Fed rate hikes, which I think can overpower the positive sentiment that might otherwise exist. On the other hand, if we are in a bear market, it stands to reason that it may not be as extreme as previous ones due to the maturity and growth of the industry.