Prediction: Low was $34K or will be ~$25K

[thecodebear]

I think we've already seen the bottom at $32.9k.
On-chain metrics say we're heading into a bull run. Only reason price has been going down since November is people freaking out about thinking there will be a bear market and China getting out of the market and people freaking out about external economic things.

The short termers are selling while the long termers have been massively accumulating. I think the longer prices stabilize in the mid-to-high $30k's the more the skittish panicky short termers are going to feel comfortable getting back into the market, and just a small shift in that sentiment creates a floor and an uptrend and it all just cascades from there. And then at some point there's a massive supply shock because the long term holders have been buying up a lot of what the short termers have been selling to them on the cheap. The short termers come back in and BOOM, there's no more supply and price starts flying. We might still have a few weeks or even a month or two of ranging if people keep freaking out about external economic conditions (everyone seems afraid of the Fed raising interest rates in March even though that has absolutely no effect on Bitcoin).

So yeah ~$33k was the bottom, either ranging in $30k's or back into the $40k's in Feb, maybe by March that incoming supply shock hits and we're back to new ATHs by May.

[aruldaroy]

Let us remember that be it the bull or bear, 1 BTC remain 1 BTC. Although, it will be better to buy during onset of bull run after the market has significantly fallen.

And I don’t see $28-30K being the low hold. It’ll be like the $6K from 2018.

You are the second person that have posted about $6000 price low recently, but is this possible? I do not think it will be possible. Bitcoin is never fallen below $10000 again. I had an analysis for my prediction.

When $30K breaks… everyone will want to buy at $20K.

With what you are implying, the price of bitcoin will significantly fall if the $30000 support is broken. I do not believe this, even if the $30000 support is broken, it will still be a long journey to fall below $20000. I mean it will be an event of buying and selling even if its price go below $30000.

What I can never believe is for bitcoin price to ever go below $10000 ever again.

I also can't believe that bitcoin drops to $1000 again because I think it's pretty much impossible.
And I also wouldn't believe that the price of bitcoin would fall to $20000
Because now bitcoin has strengthened 1.15% so that the bitcoin price is still at $38,143.24 and bitcoin tends to stay around the $37000 level.
And this may be a sign that bitcoin will rebound and encourage investors to buy crypto again.

[Poker Player]

What I can never believe is for bitcoin price to ever go below $10000 ever again.

I also can't believe that bitcoin drops to $1000 again because I think it's pretty much impossible.
And I also wouldn't believe that the price of bitcoin would fall to $20000
Because now bitcoin has strengthened 1.15% so that the bitcoin price is still at $38,143.24 and bitcoin tends to stay around the $37000 level.
And this may be a sign that bitcoin will rebound and encourage investors to buy crypto again.

I understand that it is a typo. He has talked about $10K, not $1K. I believe that if we have a bearish scenario the most key point would be $20K. Never in the previous cycles did the price go below the ath of the previous cycle. Breaking that barrier downward seems to me could trigger a real panic. But I highly doubt we will get to those levels, the $25K that the OP mentions already seems very low to me.

[Gozie51]

Remember… market does what the least amount participants expect.

Everyone didn’t buy at $34K because $30K was a better buy.
Everyone wants to buy at $30K instead of $34K
When $30K breaks… everyone will want to buy at $20K.
Since everyone wants to buy at $20K it’ll most likely never reach that area.

So bottom is $34K or $25K give or take a K or so.

This looks fun to see as people lose and some in profit while hodling. The uncertainty in the market is what the circle is all about. It is all about prediction and looked through with the charts. Of course if any is certain about next price stop, that will make it boring . The trend is the majority sentiment, so determining that is the challenge. Bitcoin during the weekend was a little volatile trading down but pushing up gradually, I don't know if we have yet left the bear or if price will get back to $34k or $33k .

[Fundamentals Of]

I don't share this view. Bitcoin will probably not go down lower than $30,000 anymore. Even if what you're saying is true, Bitcoin's price will probably just maintain its flight $30,000 or above.

If everyone didn't buy at $34,000 because $30,000 was a better buy, then $30,000 will be a strong support. So if there is a strong demand in $30,000, why would this support be breaking and the price to fall down even more to $25,000? If there is indeed a certain level of greed in $30,000, it will become a platform for its bounce.

[wavessurfing]

I don't share this view. Bitcoin will probably not go down lower than $30,000 anymore. Even if what you're saying is true, Bitcoin's price will probably just maintain its flight $30,000 or above.

If everyone didn't buy at $34,000 because $30,000 was a better buy, then $30,000 will be a strong support. So if there is a strong demand in $30,000, why would this support be breaking and the price to fall down even more to $25,000? If there is indeed a certain level of greed in $30,000, it will become a platform for its bounce.

exactly, these onchain data announce a rebound.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5383586

[dothebeats]

Makes sense for me. Even I am guilty of thinking that a $4.30 piece of meat is a better buy than a $4.99 one, albeit the latter showing more quality and freshness compared to the former. People like to skimp on things thinking that they'll get better value when they paid less, but that's not always the case. Oftentimes, this mindset makes people miss buying opportunities, and regret not buying when the opportunity presented itself.

[Wexnident]

I'd wait for the $30k wall honestly before doing anything. If, and only if, we ever do go below $30k, the path downward wouldn't be that fast imo, it'd still take some time for the market to go below even if it is going to go below $20k. Honestly, I even doubt if it was going to go below that level, I reckon we can experience people buying in at $25k levels already, which could quickly pump up the price. As for it going below $10k, I hardly doubt that. It might take forever for it to recover if the market ever goes below that level.

[buwaytress]

I think we've already seen the bottom at $32.9k.
On-chain metrics say we're heading into a bull run. Only reason price has been going down since November is people freaking out about thinking there will be a bear market and China getting out of the market and people freaking out about external economic things.

The short termers are selling while the long termers have been massively accumulating. I think the longer prices stabilize in the mid-to-high $30k's the more the skittish panicky short termers are going to feel comfortable getting back into the market, and just a small shift in that sentiment creates a floor and an uptrend and it all just cascades from there. And then at some point there's a massive supply shock because the long term holders have been buying up a lot of what the short termers have been selling to them on the cheap. The short termers come back in and BOOM, there's no more supply and price starts flying. We might still have a few weeks or even a month or two of ranging if people keep freaking out about external economic conditions (everyone seems afraid of the Fed raising interest rates in March even though that has absolutely no effect on Bitcoin).

So yeah ~$33k was the bottom, either ranging in $30k's or back into the $40k's in Feb, maybe by March that incoming supply shock hits and we're back to new ATHs by May.

Not confident enough myself to bet on a bull run extending past the one year cycle we've been getting used to, but will hardly complain if this turns out to be true. External economics will always be something we're forced to deal with (most of us anyway) and that will at the very least put our Bitcoin personal targets on the back burner. I do agree Fed rate on its own doesn't affect Bitcoin but the same institutional plugging out of risky assets will also plug out of Bitcoin.

P.S. Just noticed your signature. Thoughts on Substack?

[electronicash]

Makes sense for me. Even I am guilty of thinking that a $4.30 piece of meat is a better buy than a $4.99 one, albeit the latter showing more quality and freshness compared to the former. People like to skimp on things thinking that they'll get better value when they paid less, but that's not always the case. Oftentimes, this mindset makes people miss buying opportunities, and regret not buying when the opportunity presented itself.

another cause for fomo. when everyone thought the dip is not over and they chase to buy at higher price because suddely it bounces all the way.  traders who expect 25k will be left stunned how wrong the prediction is and eventually come up that a whale manipulated the market seeing themselves a victim of a bear trap.

ohwell predicting is lot harder than just hodling.

[STT]

Anyone who wants to buy long term should already have been buying at these prices in the 30's.  It doesnt matter so much if we do go into the 20's, it would be good to keep open the option to buy there also but the price isnt dictating success or really doing much more then altering sentiment and some profits or losses for speculators who will always sell no matter what anyway.   
   Theres a good chance we have seen the low for the year however I'd tend to agree we seem like it will take a few months before BTC seriously shakes off the gloom and clouds overhead; it will accumulate.   Overall I dont think anyone whose aware how low BTC was previously (its not ancient history) that trading here remains a positive longer term, boring for the hype traders but also required work and volume to install some stability in price action.
   I never thought 100k would be good before performing repairs to the base of price action like we are, it is a good thing in the end imo.

[el kaka22]

I don't share this view. Bitcoin will probably not go down lower than $30,000 anymore. Even if what you're saying is true, Bitcoin's price will probably just maintain its flight $30,000 or above.

If everyone didn't buy at $34,000 because $30,000 was a better buy, then $30,000 will be a strong support. So if there is a strong demand in $30,000, why would this support be breaking and the price to fall down even more to $25,000? If there is indeed a certain level of greed in $30,000, it will become a platform for its bounce.

Supports are broken all the time, I am not saying this because I believe it will go under 30k, I agree with you that it will probably not go under 30k ever again, not now, not in the future, it will never go under that level ever again if you ask me. However, strong support is not the reason for it, I have been here for around 8-9 years now and I can tell you easily that I have seen plenty of strong supports broken and price going lower.

This doesn't mean that it will happen right away and right now but it is just a situation where it "could" potentially happen. This means that we need to find another reason for it to not go under. I personally believe that institutional investors wouldn't allow it to go down that much and lose billions, that was my reasoning.

[Vaskiy]

I'd wait for the $30k wall honestly before doing anything. If, and only if, we ever do go below $30k, the path downward wouldn't be that fast imo, it'd still take some time for the market to go below even if it is going to go below $20k. Honestly, I even doubt if it was going to go below that level, I reckon we can experience people buying in at $25k levels already, which could quickly pump up the price. As for it going below $10k, I hardly doubt that. It might take forever for it to recover if the market ever goes below that level.

Below $10k is not gonna happen, and once after the previous bull market of 2017 there were similar predictions. To the expectation the market didn't respond, so we can make predictions as well as calculations connected with the previous market trend and ongoing market progress. The rest happens upon its own, and in such manner for long term holders buying at the price around $35k is really good pick. This seems to be the time for the technically skilled traders to make good profit, as there is large scale fluctuation happening often.

[7788bitcoin]

~
The rest happens upon its own, and in such manner for long term holders buying at the price around $35k is really good pick. This seems to be the time for the technically skilled traders to make good profit, as there is large scale fluctuation happening often.

If the plan is to enter the market for the long term then he can wait to see the market direction. I doubt $35k is a good pick if your base argument is based on the past market conditions after the rally. If that is the situation, the market will go well below $30k and for anyone looking to hold the coins for the long term, they can wait rather than jumping into a market which is looking for directions.

[Fundamentals Of]

I don't share this view. Bitcoin will probably not go down lower than $30,000 anymore. Even if what you're saying is true, Bitcoin's price will probably just maintain its flight $30,000 or above.

If everyone didn't buy at $34,000 because $30,000 was a better buy, then $30,000 will be a strong support. So if there is a strong demand in $30,000, why would this support be breaking and the price to fall down even more to $25,000? If there is indeed a certain level of greed in $30,000, it will become a platform for its bounce.

Supports are broken all the time, I am not saying this because I believe it will go under 30k, I agree with you that it will probably not go under 30k ever again, not now, not in the future, it will never go under that level ever again if you ask me. However, strong support is not the reason for it, I have been here for around 8-9 years now and I can tell you easily that I have seen plenty of strong supports broken and price going lower.

This doesn't mean that it will happen right away and right now but it is just a situation where it "could" potentially happen. This means that we need to find another reason for it to not go under. I personally believe that institutional investors wouldn't allow it to go down that much and lose billions, that was my reasoning.

I was just reacting to your logic.

Of course I believe that Bitcoin's price is still highly unpredictable. Strong supports don't mean the price fall will stop there. They're simply support. They may or may not withstand a strong sell pressure. There are a lot of people who are highly invested in Bitcoin, institutional investors included, and they will never wish for the price to fall below their price of acquisition. However, as we know that there are millions of Bitcoin which were acquired much much cheaper than $20,000, there is still reason for the price to fall below that.

[traderethereum]

~
The rest happens upon its own, and in such manner for long term holders buying at the price around $35k is really good pick. This seems to be the time for the technically skilled traders to make good profit, as there is large scale fluctuation happening often.

If the plan is to enter the market for the long term then he can wait to see the market direction. I doubt $35k is a good pick if your base argument is based on the past market conditions after the rally. If that is the situation, the market will go well below $30k and for anyone looking to hold the coins for the long term, they can wait rather than jumping into a market which is looking for directions.

If the market can be below $30k again, that will be a good time to buy back as the price will increase in the long term to give him the chance to make a big profit.
If the situation is still like this and more support comes to bitcoin, the price can still increase and we can not buy at a low price instead, we buy at the current price.
From yesterday, the price seems to move good and can go back to the $38k level so people who bought at $35k surely make a nice profit now.
The price is now still up and down and gives us a chance to buy low and sell high so we need to use that to our advantage to make a profit.

[adaseb]

The reason why I don’t see $30K holding but something such as $25K holding is due to the liquidity theory. Right now everybody that got scared already sold, so there is less to buy for the whales.

If they bring price down to $30K, they know that everyone wants to buy at $30K. There will be a lot of retail buying at that price. And if the whales can break the $30K, then everyone that bought at $30K and those who bought higher will most likely sell out of fear. Creating sell liquidity which will be absorbed by the whales.

[StreakW]

The price of bitcoin is still experiencing a decline in price, which makes the movement erratic. From the price drop, it can be concluded that Bitcoin still doesn't have full control over the bull rally. Therefore it is possible that the price of bitcoin has the potential to drop to the $30k level but not to the $25k level.

[rby]

The price of bitcoin is still experiencing a decline in price, which makes the movement erratic. From the price drop, it can be concluded that Bitcoin still doesn't have full control over the bull rally. Therefore it is possible that the price of bitcoin has the potential to drop to the $30k level but not to the $25k level.

By this time people are supposed to know where bitcoin will form resistance but it is difficult this time to determine it. The market is unpredictable, I know $25k is still possible to attain. But this is time for buy, we cannot actually determine where it's going to no matter how careful we are.

[adaseb]

Today on CNBC there was a bit about Bitcoin. It was mostly bearish, they posted a chart with the trend line resistance we are all talking about and they are predicting a drop to $20K maybe even as low as $10K.

Now whenever anyone like CNBC, makes these predictions usually the complete opposite happens. You guys know that Jim Cramer guy, most of his predictions are bad. He said to buy Netflix before earnings and tanked 25%, and I think he also told people to buy Facebook and it also tanked. There are too many bearish people right now so there is a good chance it won’t go lower than $33K.