Fake Deals...

[JoschK]

Since a couple of months now, I observe the BitCoin-rate at Mt.Gox quite close - together with Bid- and Ask-Volume and so on.
My conclusion growing in the recent 2 Month is: Somebody (who ever?) performs a considerable part of Mt.Gox-Volume obviously
as fake-deals - as it seems almost impossible to make profits proceeding in this way.

A Fake-Deal in my eyes is for example, if the SAME person or organization is selling und buying BTC at the same time. It seems simply
impossible to me to believe, that there are "normal investors" selling 5 or 10% of an usual Mt.Gox-per-Day-Volume in 3 Minutes for prices
far below the current rating (or sometimes of course: above also...).

According to my individual tracks of some - usuallly quite decisive - parameter for "normal" market-behaviour, there's left just one
conclusion, if phenomena against any imaginable constellation of desire to make profit occur.

I' appreciate to read what other *real* BitCoiners think about that?

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[JoschK]

It's a remarkably fast and adaptive market that many intelligent people are exploiting individually for profit (or loss).

It's a total coinspiracy like most trades on exchanges are.

I have no doubt that it's somewhere between the two. But won't this discussion be low on facts and high on speculation? Licks of a tootsie roll pop.

Of course it's almost impossible to prove these "fake deals" i'm talking about, as an observer cannot retrieve information about current trading parties.
However - fake-deals might expose some specific phenomena in observable exchange data, which could be detected by an observer.

A possible benefit from such a hypothetical "fake-alarm": if alerted ppl stop trading for some time for instance - manipulating parties
could experience less profit or even some loss, whereas others prevent losses by avoiding their traps.

[WinterParker]

Do you mean having fake walls to mess with pricing ?

[JoschK]

It's a remarkably fast and adaptive market that many intelligent people are exploiting individually for profit (or loss).

It's a total coinspiracy like most trades on exchanges are.

I have no doubt that it's somewhere between the two. But won't this discussion be low on facts and high on speculation? Licks of a tootsie roll pop.

...reality inbetween and they are by far worse, than I even thought off.

However - I managed to get my little money out of gox, before it imploded - just because I took my uncomfortable feeling seriously.

Beyond that - the gox-experience emphasizes, how vitally cryptocoins depend on secure exchange mechanisms. I think it should be one major goal for future development / design of coins to introduce some integral exchange-functionality.
As the 1st Generation of cryptocoins took over functionalities formely performed by bank institutions, now a 2nd Generation might be needed, which at least provide some safeguard for thier vital exchange functionalities.