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Author Topic: Last time $3 was "the manipulator"... what now?  (Read 3915 times)
dancupid
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December 07, 2011, 03:06:14 PM
 #21

I think someone is manipulating the manipulator

It's an odd thing to do with the price clearly moving up - he can't want the price to move too low as he has at least 10,000btc that presumably he want's to make a tidy profit on. Perhaps he's just buying up as many bitcoins below $3.05 before he removes the 'wall' (can you even have a selling wall? - seems bizarre to me)
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December 07, 2011, 03:07:15 PM
 #22

I like how many market specialists are on this forum. And when price goes in different direction than they expected, they are speaking about "manipulator". Just because they cannot understand that market will do whatever it want, not what they think it should.

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December 07, 2011, 03:12:23 PM
 #23

I like how many market specialists are on this forum. And when price goes in different direction than they expected, they are speaking about "manipulator". Just because they cannot understand that market will do whatever it want, not what they think it should.

It's still interesting to watch though - there is a notion that somehow bitcoin is the people's currency. But actually it's controlled by whoever has the most money (just like everything else)
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December 07, 2011, 03:20:15 PM
 #24

Yes, of course. Bitcoin is pure capitalism. Money vote.

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December 07, 2011, 03:36:04 PM
 #25

If you ask me, it's someone who wants out before it crashes again.  I just wonder if its someone who wants out, or if they are selling to rebuy later. 

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December 07, 2011, 04:19:54 PM
 #26

BadBear, I think so, too. Somebody crashed the market because was affraid of market crash.

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December 07, 2011, 06:45:31 PM
 #27

A week or two ago when Bitcoin went up to the $3 mark, many here said it was "artificially caused" by the massive "fake" bid wall of "the manipulator." Well, that bid wall wasn't fake - it was filled.

But here we are at $3 again... so what's the excuse this time?

There's nothing fake about it.  Someone's using a very real bid wall to artificially shove the market around.  The motive is still unclear.

the motive is one thing that is pretty clear to me: get rich quick

could you post one of your order book history graphics again? maybe some explanations too, they are kinda had to read.

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Revalin
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December 07, 2011, 11:57:46 PM
 #28

the motive is one thing that is pretty clear to me: get rich quick

That's not certain.  It could be some millionaire who wants to stabilize value to bolster confidence in the currency.

Even if you assume it's to get rich quick, "How" is the big question.  The strategy isn't obvious to me.

Quote
could you post one of your order book history graphics again? maybe some explanations too, they are kinda had to read.

Sure, here's most of November, 30m resolution from $1.00-$4.00, ticks every $0.50:



I don't have time to analyze it, but let me know if you want any detail charts.

Unfortunately MtGox screwed their SSL cert when the big clock ran out and my script quit getting data.  So I don't have anything for December yet.  It's fixed now, but if anyone else happens to have a copy of the data from 12/1 through 12/7 I'll import it and make some charts.

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December 08, 2011, 12:02:38 AM
 #29

the motive is one thing that is pretty clear to me: get rich quick

That's not certain.  It could be some millionaire who wants to stabilize value to bolster confidence in the currency.

Even if you assume it's to get rich quick, "How" is the big question.  The strategy isn't obvious to me.

Quote
could you post one of your order book history graphics again? maybe some explanations too, they are kinda had to read.

Sure, here's most of November, 30m resolution from $1.00-$4.00, ticks every $0.50:



I don't have time to analyze it, but let me know if you want any detail charts.

Unfortunately MtGox screwed their SSL cert on 11/22.  It's fixed now, but if anyone else happens to have a copy of the data from 11/22 through 12/7 I'll import it and make some charts.


      War is God's way of teaching Americans geography.  --Ambrose Bierce
Bitcoin is the Devil's way of teaching geeks economics.  --Revalin 165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g
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December 08, 2011, 01:30:09 AM
 #30

Bid 2.25 5799.83
Bid 2.3 3963.66
Bid 2.35 1568.29
Bid 2.4 5524.51
Bid 2.45 1715.29
Bid 2.5 13825.13
Bid 2.55 10921.5
Bid 2.6 7953.12
Bid 2.65 9357.33
Bid 2.7 5274.7
Bid 2.75 3038.33
Bid 2.8 4581.92
Bid 2.85 3018.22
Bid 2.9 4825.08
Bid 2.95 4761.29


Guys, manipulator is still in. This is the basic bid walls the manipulator uses without his massive bid wall. I think he knows that putting a massive bid wall just allows someone who wants to dump coins use it as an opportunity to dump them without pushing the market down that much.

You can see that he usually puts about 4,000 to 5,000 bitcoin mini bidwalls when trying to push up the price.

When the manipulator pulls out, the bid walls are usually like 300-1000 in size. I had many posts showing exactly when the manipulator pulls out, and how it looks before and after.

Please look at my post here some months back before the manipulator went into the market. Look how weak demand is.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=47185.msg578698#msg578698

Bid 2.3  290.33
Bid 2.35 767.66
Bid 2.4  371.09
Bid 2.45 92.54
Bid 2.5  4134.71
Bid 2.55 455.03
Bid 2.6  564.83
Bid 2.65 2143.07
Bid 2.7  1357.9
Bid 2.75 1758.15
Bid 2.8  2524.34
Bid 2.85 135.71
Bid 2.9  858.04
Bid 2.95 104.64
Bid 3  8770.97
 

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December 08, 2011, 04:23:03 AM
 #31

I think the bid/ask wall activity is by a well-funded (and heavy-handed, with big balls) aggressive type of market maker.  Having a large portion of the funds in a market doesn't make one a manipulator.  Bid activity may be automated, that is fine.  Its still real.

Wash trading, on the other hand, is manipulation.

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December 08, 2011, 08:00:57 AM
 #32

I don't do that.

phelix
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December 08, 2011, 06:41:41 PM
 #33

the motive is one thing that is pretty clear to me: get rich quick

That's not certain.  It could be some millionaire who wants to stabilize value to bolster confidence in the currency.

Even if you assume it's to get rich quick, "How" is the big question.  The strategy isn't obvious to me.

Quote
could you post one of your order book history graphics again? maybe some explanations too, they are kinda had to read.

Sure, here's most of November, 30m resolution from $1.00-$4.00, ticks every $0.50:

[...]


thanks for the chart.

It could be a group of very early adopters. Stabilize bitcoin and get rich goes hand in hand for them.

Strategy? From looking at the chart it might work like this:

1) slowly and secretly buy coins
2) put in very visible big bid wall
3) wait for price to rise because of bid wall
4) sell previously bought coins
5) take away bid wall
(4 & 5 make price drop)
repeat





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Vandroiy
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December 09, 2011, 12:30:11 AM
 #34

It's still interesting to watch though - there is a notion that somehow bitcoin is the people's currency. But actually it's controlled by whoever has the most money (just like everything else)

This is overstating it. With a lot of coins/dollars, one can push the market for a moment, yes. But even more than for others, there's no easy way out for someone moving a lot of funds, and a wrong decision will be extremely expensive.

That's why I like Bitcoin. It's controlled by nobody; one can only try to act in a sane way. There's no magical loophole for rich people such as bribing officials or using special laws with difficult requirements.

So, I strongly disagree. Bitcoin is NOT just like everything else.
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December 09, 2011, 01:55:23 PM
 #35

guys, I'm no trading genius, but if there is a "manipulator" that makes moves that are so obvious, how come nobody takes advantage of it and piggy backs the "manipulator"?
trogdorjw73
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December 09, 2011, 02:27:58 PM
 #36

guys, I'm no trading genius, but if there is a "manipulator" that makes moves that are so obvious, how come nobody takes advantage of it and piggy backs the "manipulator"?
I think some of us [raises hand] are trying to do just that, but it takes patience. You can't really be a day trader and piggy back the manipulator.

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December 09, 2011, 02:56:05 PM
 #37

how come nobody takes advantage of it and piggy backs the "manipulator"?

The moves we see aren't straightforward profit strategies.  He may be:

a) making counter-moves that we can't see (small but frequent sales, or quick sniping of others' large limit orders);
b) playing a long game, building up market sentiment until he can sell off hard into it;
c) playing a long game, building up public trust in Bitcoin until he can achieve his real goals elsewhere;
d) speculating;
e) an idiot;
f) several or all of the above.

Market-making, arbitrage, technical trading, etc, all still work fine regardless of what he's up to.  The only group that has a stake in what he's doing are the speculators, which is why this is on the Speculation board.  If they can figure out his motive or strategy for the moves in (a), they can make money by leading.  If he's smart and greedy (a + b), he can make lots of obvious moves now to train them, then subtly change strategies right when they think they have it figured out and take their money.  If he's smart and altruistic (a + c), they can make some money while furthering his goals.  If they bet on (d), they only make money if they're right AND he's right; it's better to speculate based on your own research.  If it's (e), everyone loses.

Following blindly without understanding the strategy and knowing how to make the less obvious moves will just make you (d + e).

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Bitcoin is the Devil's way of teaching geeks economics.  --Revalin 165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g
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December 09, 2011, 10:26:58 PM
 #38

I've seen a) performed by his/a bot.  There was a constant bid of 147BTC appearing and disappearing at a regular interval.  The bot throws it up to trigger other bots or people to sell into it and immediately pulls out.
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December 10, 2011, 01:04:42 AM
 #39

Somebody just snatched up all the coins at $3.
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December 10, 2011, 01:13:47 AM
 #40

Somebody just snatched up all the coins at $3.

Saw it live! Grin
Time to take a ride on the space elevator.

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