Inflation hitting a 25yr old record | Predictions for the future

[Fortify]

The increasing inflation is currently soaring across the globe, leading to excessive price increases in most goods, in fuel and energy. To make matters worse fuel and energy costs are not included in inflation's index, thus, a 5-6 or 7% increase, is actually a lot worse than anticipated.

In particular, Greece is now facing a 6.2% rise in inflation, compared to January 2021, the largest ever recorded since 1997, compared to 5.1% in December. Increases are now spreading across the spectrum of the economy and not just energy, as it was a while ago, thus reducing disposable income and reducing inflation not to an economic issue but to a wider social issue.

According to ELSTAT data, the goods with the largest increase compared to January 2021 are:

Natural gas with an increase of 154.8%
Heating Oil with an increase of 36%,
Electricity with 56.7%,
Fuels with 21.6%,
Lamb and goat with 17.6%,
Olive oil with 15.4% and
potatoes with 12.3%.
Fresh vegetables 14.4%
 
The situation is about to get worse, with depressing predictions of it surpassing 7%-8% in the upcoming March. How are we dealing with such a situation? It feels like a battle against an invisible enemy. Our available income is shrinking, what is the best way to tackle inflation? The most common answer I've seen is to invest, rather than save, but how exactly do you invest? Since when is buying cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, tackling inflation, since it can also face periods that it's losing value.

Is it going to get any better, and how soon is that going to be, if prices ever recover. Personally, I highly doubt it that the situation is going to get any better within 2022.

Unless supply chains start to unwind this inflation mess and get back to stability in a couple years, this is going to create a spiral affect that governments all around the world will struggle to control. People are going to start asking for higher wage increases to keep up, which pushes costs up further throughout the supply chain and causes further rises. Eventually central banks, who have avoided taking a responsible approach for many years, will be forced to put up interest rates substantially, which will cause mortgage costs to rise and eventually people will not be able to afford to remortgage and some may lose their homes. This might be caused by a bit of a spending spree after Covid but unless it calms down it could cause the next economic bust.

[1713946575]

1713946575

[1713946575]

1713946575

[1713946575]

1713946575

[1713946575]

1713946575

[Captain Corporate]

 It is really not about inflation being so high that bothers me the most, it is being global and destructive and unpreventable that bothers me the most. I mean sure inflation happens time to time, for example my nation had a hoooorible case of it during early 90's as well. But that doesn't mean that we couldn't stop it, it wasn't like soms systemic problem, it was a problem by the idiotic governments movements and then it was fixed eventually and we got better for a while, like for nearly two decades. Nowadays though, we are living the same thing, this time it is global, and this time it is a bit systemic. Thats the scary part, like there is no way to stop this, it will keep on going unless something changes. Rich are getting so rich that we are talking about 300+ billion dollars whereas the richest person had like 50-60 billion dollars only 10 years ago, and this is just one person, we had 10+ people with 100+ billion dollar valuation. Meanwhile workers are getting so little that, people who are 20-30 year old stopped working for a while, for real they had anti-work movement and quite in masses and USA had a whole shortage crisis. So all in all I would have to say that unless the system changes a bit, we are going to keep on living this problem for a long time and inflation will keep on rising.

[Lucius]

Some may remember all those discussions about all that money that some governments have literally thrown into the system to keep it afloat. I think it was quite realistic to expect that sooner or later someone will have to pay for it, and I think that is exactly what is happening now.

My government has announced that it will help citizens and the economy by reducing VAT, freezing fuel prices, and limiting increases in gas and electricity prices, and one-time cash benefits to retirees. The only thing strange about that is the date, they chose April 1 as the date when all these measures come into force.

When it comes to how to deal with inflation, I think everyone needs to be aware that they can't save on the basics, but we can save on what we don't really need (alcohol, cigarettes, gambling, less driving, and more use of public transport...). Maybe someone will say that this is not enough, but we have to start from something and try to survive, even with the help of Bitcoin that we have bought or earned in the past years.

[Ultegra134]

Some may remember all those discussions about all that money that some governments have literally thrown into the system to keep it afloat. I think it was quite realistic to expect that sooner or later someone will have to pay for it, and I think that is exactly what is happening now.

My government has announced that it will help citizens and the economy by reducing VAT, freezing fuel prices, and limiting increases in gas and electricity prices, and one-time cash benefits to retirees. The only thing strange about that is the date, they chose April 1 as the date when all these measures come into force.

When it comes to how to deal with inflation, I think everyone needs to be aware that they can't save on the basics, but we can save on what we don't really need (alcohol, cigarettes, gambling, less driving, and more use of public transport...). Maybe someone will say that this is not enough, but we have to start from something and try to survive, even with the help of Bitcoin that we have bought or earned in the past years.

It would happen eventually, it was a bubble waiting to burst. In a country with financial prosperity, the government can take measures against inflation, some of which are reducing VAT and taxation on fuel and electricity, like you've already mentioned.

The political party, Diem25, of Yanis Varoufakis suggested to reduce the VAT to 15%, reduce taxation in fuel and electricity, along with some other measures I can't recall, and couldn't find the related article. However, it was quickly turned down.

I was generally cautious when going to the supermarket, purchasing cheaper off-brands, but still, the condition is a pain in the ass, you can't avoid it.

[Lucius]

It would happen eventually, it was a bubble waiting to burst. In a country with financial prosperity, the government can take measures against inflation, some of which are reducing VAT and taxation on fuel and electricity, like you've already mentioned.

I do not think that I live in such a country, but all these announced measures have something to do with some EU funds - although it is only a kind of mitigation of everything that inevitably has to happen, and far from being a solution. I should be happy that the price of electricity will increase by only 25% in 2 months, and the price of gas by about 20%, not to mention everything else that will inevitably become more expensive.

I was generally cautious when going to the supermarket, purchasing cheaper off-brands, but still, the condition is a pain in the ass, you can't avoid it.

Some brands are definitely cheaper, but their quality is often questionable, so it's hard to balance between price and quality. I often buy products that are 25% to 50% cheaper than regular prices, all because they are approaching the expiration date - snacks, chocolates, nuts, and even meat can be obtained at very good prices.

If you have the opportunity to plant a small garden, it is definitely worth producing home-grown vegetables such as tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, peas, carrots that you can use until late autumn fresh - and then also store them for the winter.

[Vatimins]

     Times are difficult right now and will just get even worse as time goes by. This is the case regardless of where you are residing in this world. Inflation is a frightening and invincible enemy that we can never eradicate. The best thing a person could do is invest on assets that are safe from inflation or at least won't be affected that much. Crypto currencies are good along with gold, real estate and more. You get my point. The world is bound to go into oblivion, I pity the coming generations. Had the people before us cared enough, they never would've abused this world that we live in. What is left for us to di is only to slow down the process, saving the world is now kind of impossible.

[Ultegra134]

It would happen eventually, it was a bubble waiting to burst. In a country with financial prosperity, the government can take measures against inflation, some of which are reducing VAT and taxation on fuel and electricity, like you've already mentioned.

I do not think that I live in such a country, but all these announced measures have something to do with some EU funds - although it is only a kind of mitigation of everything that inevitably has to happen, and far from being a solution. I should be happy that the price of electricity will increase by only 25% in 2 months, and the price of gas by about 20%, not to mention everything else that will inevitably become more expensive.

I was generally cautious when going to the supermarket, purchasing cheaper off-brands, but still, the condition is a pain in the ass, you can't avoid it.

Some brands are definitely cheaper, but their quality is often questionable, so it's hard to balance between price and quality. I often buy products that are 25% to 50% cheaper than regular prices, all because they are approaching the expiration date - snacks, chocolates, nuts, and even meat can be obtained at very good prices.

If you have the opportunity to plant a small garden, it is definitely worth producing home-grown vegetables such as tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, peas, carrots that you can use until late autumn fresh - and then also store them for the winter.

Where are you from, if you don't mind me asking? It was quickly denied here, after a few political parties suggested it. I highly doubt it that it will occur here, unless the European Union says so.

I've noticed many similarities between off-brands and premium brands in the supermarket, for instance, the supermarket brand has the exact same packaging with Nutella and coincidentally, it's also made it Italy. Anyway, you can get away with buying off-brands in the majority of products, however, quality is definitely not the same, you get what you pay for.

[paxmao]

There are three possible scenarios for most of the rich world going forward:
Stagflation: Inflation without growth. An offer shock (see commodities prices) including energy causes inflation, interest rates are raised and then growth collapses.
Hyperinflation: Same, but interest rates are not raised to protect zombie companies and the mortgages market and inflation becomes rampant.
Controlled inflation: Inflation corrects once the world trade resumes its due course. Interest rates go back to ultra-low and our zombified economy goes on until next COVID without any structural reform.

[AicecreaME]

It's not going to get better or get back to what we've used to see. Once the price especially for fuel and other energy commodities rises, it's hard to pull it back. That's the reality that has been happening all of these years.

Good for those countries that have been researching and making renewable energy as a source as they might feel a little or not feel that much with the global economy's inflation and issue that's being tackled from country to country.

The solutions are what you've said, anything that you can hedge against the inflation like bitcoin, real estate, gold, income-generating asset. You invest on them. Don't forget that when crisis happens and you're affected by a possible war, cash is still needed.

Your first statement speaks volumes. I've noticed that over the years too. The moment the raw materials and even the commodities, processed goods, and services offered have increased in value, it would be very difficult to make it lower again or to at least bring it back to its original price. Most often than not, they retain their prices and no longer roll back prices because of inflation. And if ever they would opt to do so, what happens is the goods you'll get are lesser than before, which is also called shrinkflation. The businesses would retain their prices but would lower the quality of the product which is a terrible thing as well if they won't increase their prices.

In the oil industry, it's really much harder to make the prices affordable because most resources they use are non-renewable which means that as time goes by, there will be only a few left which means low supply and bigger demand that could really lead to an increase in prices. Those first-world countries are really on the advantaged side because they have the means to research and make products that are sustainable and cost-efficient that would be very beneficial on the country, their citizens, as well as the planet. I hope more countries would have the same initiative. After all, anyone can start small.

Inflation is inevitable. In fact, it is normal in an economy. What's not normal is the speed of increase of inflation which the government fails to control. As a result, the citizens, most particularly the middle and lower bracket of the society are most affected. So, it's really much better to invest in those things that are lesser prone to inflation such as crypto and real-estate. Still, anyone should do their own research before investing to be able to secure their future. 

[Lucius]

Where are you from, if you don't mind me asking? It was quickly denied here, after a few political parties suggested it. I highly doubt it that it will occur here, unless the European Union says so.

Just hover with your pointer on the globe icon in my profile and you will get that info

I think that these are funds that EU members received as an aid in the pandemic, and part of that will be used to alleviate inflation. Of course, if politicians don’t steal a good chunk of that money before it gets into the right hands. These days, my country is shaken by an affair in which the Minister of Enterprise and Crafts was arrested for allocating funds without a tender, and even the Deputy Prime Minister and many other state officials are involved.

Nothing new in a country where the former prime minister is in prison and the ruling party is condemned as a criminal organization, so one rightly wonders why more than 400 000 people have left the country in the past 10 years. When I look at the big picture, there are worse things than inflation that have been going on for decades.

[stompix]

I was generally cautious when going to the supermarket, purchasing cheaper off-brands, but still, the condition is a pain in the ass, you can't avoid it.

Some brands are definitely cheaper, but their quality is often questionable, so it's hard to balance between price and quality. I often buy products that are 25% to 50% cheaper than regular prices, all because they are approaching the expiration date - snacks, chocolates, nuts, and even meat can be obtained at very good prices.

I've noticed many similarities between off-brands and premium brands in the supermarket, for instance, the supermarket brand has the exact same packaging with Nutella and coincidentally, it's also made it Italy. Anyway, you can get away with buying off-brands in the majority of products, however, quality is definitely not the same, you get what you pay for.

Hihi, exactly, you get what you pay for, and in some cases, it's not about the manufacturer is about the requirements the supermarket or the brand asks for.
I can tell you this for sure as the factory that we have some contracts for meat delivery is manufacturing both for Lild and for their own brand, of course, both the recipe and the price is different but the main ingredients come from the same source. Oh, in this case, both their bratwurst sucks but, that's another story. 

The problem with chain store brands is that they don't have one huge factory with the same standards and suppliers they usually have tens of small companies that produce a few gods for them under the same label, in some cases it turns out to be good in some cases it's garbage, no matter how strict you are there will always be differences between and when it comes to food a difference means you've wasted money and it gets thrown away.

I think that these are funds that EU members received as an aid in the pandemic, and part of that will be used to alleviate inflation. Of course, if politicians don’t steal a good chunk of that money before it gets into the right hands. These days, my country is shaken by an affair in which the Minister of Enterprise and Crafts was arrested for allocating funds without a tender, and even the Deputy Prime Minister and many other state officials are involved.

That's why the aid should be targeted directly by bringing down taxes rather than throwing money away which will never reach the ones that are needed.
Rather than declaring a random cap on prices which we all know it's going to end badly as it never worked ever the government could work with the manufacturers and resellers directly and get rid of surplus taxes there, making a deal by waiving for some of the tax on the difference they've sold their products for.
So if they drop the prices they will get the reduced taxation by a quota, incentivizing them to drop the prices to sell more while keeping the same profits.

If you just throw money at poeple, poeple will have more to spend driving prices up, who will be stupid to lower prices when poeple have more money?
If you drop VAT they will keep the same prices, the consumer wills till see 1E, for him it doesn't matter before 20 cents were VAT and now 10 cents are VAT.
 

[kaya11]

The situation is about to get worse, with depressing predictions of it surpassing 7%-8% in the upcoming March. How are we dealing with such a situation? It feels like a battle against an invisible enemy. Our available income is shrinking, what is the best way to tackle inflation? The most common answer I've seen is to invest, rather than save, but how exactly do you invest? Since when is buying cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, tackling inflation, since it can also face periods that it's losing value.

Is it going to get any better, and how soon is that going to be, if prices ever recover. Personally, I highly doubt it that the situation is going to get any better within 2022.

I believe changes rely on ourselves, your are right on the investing part, but I chose to invest the money on lands to grow crops. My father is an agriculturists and we grow some of our food since last year. Vegetables and spices that are easy to grow, it is a very big leap to cover some of our daily needs.
I read and watch, articles or farming videos to increase my knowledge. We must be ready to be self sufficient, inflation is getting worst and our saving method is never getting us any better. Others should try it too, start small in the back yard of none you could farm on pots or make a small bed for your plants, it is also fun.

[Ultegra134]

I think that these are funds that EU members received as an aid in the pandemic, and part of that will be used to alleviate inflation. Of course, if politicians don’t steal a good chunk of that money before it gets into the right hands. These days, my country is shaken by an affair in which the Minister of Enterprise and Crafts was arrested for allocating funds without a tender, and even the Deputy Prime Minister and many other state officials are involved.

That's why the aid should be targeted directly by bringing down taxes rather than throwing money away which will never reach the ones that are needed.
Rather than declaring a random cap on prices which we all know it's going to end badly as it never worked ever the government could work with the manufacturers and resellers directly and get rid of surplus taxes there, making a deal by waiving for some of the tax on the difference they've sold their products for.
So if they drop the prices they will get the reduced taxation by a quota, incentivizing them to drop the prices to sell more while keeping the same profits.

If you just throw money at poeple, poeple will have more to spend driving prices up, who will be stupid to lower prices when poeple have more money?
If you drop VAT they will keep the same prices, the consumer wills till see 1E, for him it doesn't matter before 20 cents were VAT and now 10 cents are VAT.
 

An immediate living allowance is now being planned by the Greek government, in order to assist households. It's been said that the allowance will be up to 100 euros, for grocery shopping. While it's certainly assisting those who can benefit from it, it's only a temporary measure, on top of that, the amount to be distributed is quite insignificant for a family.

The best solution would be to lower the VAT, in products and fuel, even temporarily, till the situation normalizes.

Edit: Fixed some quotes.

[Ultegra134]

A little update, after the announcement of March inflation in Greece, from the Hellenic Statistical Authority. Greece's inflation in March surpassed 8.9%, the highest since 1995. On top of that, the average price for fuel is 2€/liter for petrol and €1.70/liter for diesel, while we're having one of the most expensive electricity in Europe.

[kryptqnick]

I've lived in a country with a rather unstable fiat, so I got used to high inflation. Yes, it's generally not good for the economy, sure. But a 6.2% is no reason to be alarmed and is actually something barely noticeable! It's even pretty close to the target inflation of 5%. Inflation is bad and seriously noticeable either when a person barely makes the ends meet as is, so even, say, a 10% difference means that this person now can't afford something this person really needs, or when inflation is so huge it's impossible not to notice it (like in Russia right now, with many prices for products rising very significantly, according to Russian YouTube videos).

[Ultegra134]

I've lived in a country with a rather unstable fiat, so I got used to high inflation. Yes, it's generally not good for the economy, sure. But a 6.2% is no reason to be alarmed and is actually something barely noticeable! It's even pretty close to the target inflation of 5%. Inflation is bad and seriously noticeable either when a person barely makes the ends meet as is, so even, say, a 10% difference means that this person now can't afford something this person really needs, or when inflation is so huge it's impossible not to notice it (like in Russia right now, with many prices for products rising very significantly, according to Russian YouTube videos).

As I've mentioned before, it's at 8.9%, which is way too noticeable, that means that most every-day goods have rose in price an average of 8%, which might not seem much at first, but if you consider that each item you purchase is way pricier than it was last year, the difference on a monthly or yearly basis is quite significant.

What's worse, is that in those inflation figures, electricity and fueling costs are not taken into account, while inflation is expected to rise even further the following months.

[adaseb]

Yes and this is why many markets like crypto are struggling to make new ATHs and many medium type of stocks. Inflation is very high and central banks need to control it by raising rates. They need to raise rates so there is less demand for goods and in return the prices will go down.

One example of this is to suppress the prices of real estate. They will weed out many buyers because payments will be higher and as a result they will make prices stop rising and maybe drop in certain markets.

[Lucius]

A little update, after the announcement of March inflation in Greece, from the Hellenic Statistical Authority. Greece's inflation in March surpassed 8.9%, the highest since 1995. On top of that, the average price for fuel is 2€/liter for petrol and €1.70/liter for diesel, while we're having one of the most expensive electricity in Europe.

I will not say that there is anything in the fact that Greece is in a position to pay dearly for all the help it received to get out of bankruptcy, but it seems to me that your hands are quite tied and that you are at the mercy of Brussels and the European Central Bank. I will not say that it is better in my country because we are somewhere in the middle when it comes to inflation and data for February, but since we have our own currency, some things are still easier to implement than being in the eurozone.

Some other countries are even more disadvantaged with double-digit inflation rates - Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia are examples that there can always be worse. Given that all three countries have decided to stop importing Russian oil and gas, it remains to be seen how this will affect inflation in the coming months.


Source

[Ultegra134]

Yes and this is why many markets like crypto are struggling to make new ATHs and many medium type of stocks. Inflation is very high and central banks need to control it by raising rates. They need to raise rates so there is less demand for goods and in return the prices will go down.

One example of this is to suppress the prices of real estate. They will weed out many buyers because payments will be higher and as a result they will make prices stop rising and maybe drop in certain markets.

Certainly, the market has been awful the past few weeks, my DeFi investment is going downhill, like the rest of the market, showing little to no recovery for days.

A little update, after the announcement of March inflation in Greece, from the Hellenic Statistical Authority. Greece's inflation in March surpassed 8.9%, the highest since 1995. On top of that, the average price for fuel is 2€/liter for petrol and €1.70/liter for diesel, while we're having one of the most expensive electricity in Europe.

I will not say that there is anything in the fact that Greece is in a position to pay dearly for all the help it received to get out of bankruptcy, but it seems to me that your hands are quite tied and that you are at the mercy of Brussels and the European Central Bank. I will not say that it is better in my country because we are somewhere in the middle when it comes to inflation and data for February, but since we have our own currency, some things are still easier to implement than being in the eurozone.

Some other countries are even more disadvantaged with double-digit inflation rates - Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia are examples that there can always be worse. Given that all three countries have decided to stop importing Russian oil and gas, it remains to be seen how this will affect inflation in the coming months.

I don't expect to ever fully pay off the debt we own, things were going quite better before Covid-19 hit though, now we're at rock bottom again, at least we're not alone now. Definitely, there are countries with worse figures, however, it's pretty hard to compare who's in the worse position, unless we take into account living costs and minimum wage, something which is severely low here, compared to other countries.

P.S I was to visit Croatia next week but couldn't find affordable tickets from my area (I live on an island), I really hope I could visit next time, Zadar and all the Adriatic islands are extraordinary.

[Lucius]

I don't expect to ever fully pay off the debt we own, things were going quite better before Covid-19 hit though, now we're at rock bottom again, at least we're not alone now.

The time when governments tried to help the economy and ordinary people with various measures is over, now they will try to charge us with interest, and they have two good excuses, inflation and war. It is not easy for ordinary people, but for those who knew that this time will come sooner or later, it is still easier to reconcile that we have to adjust - I have experience with much worse things than inflation, so I can accept such challenges perhaps easier than others.

P.S I was to visit Croatia next week but couldn't find affordable tickets from my area (I live on an island), I really hope I could visit next time, Zadar and all the Adriatic islands are extraordinary.

I hope you enjoy your visit, especially at this time of year when it is not too hot - and I hope it will be nice weather, because yesterday was a very stormy day with strong winds and rain along the entire coast. The good thing is that all measures against covid have been removed, masks are needed only in pharmacies, hospitals, and nursing homes. I would buy you a beer, but unfortunately, I am currently located far from the coast.