Russia can evade sanction through cryptocurrencies

[stepwilli]

Some people have said that centralized exchanges that are not in Russia can’t be forced by the Russian government to freeze the account of their citizens. I don’t really know much about this; that if centralized exchange is not in a particular country that it can’t be controlled or willed to do as the government pleases.

But, one thing I do know for sure is that a decentralized exchange is always the best to use. When people are making use of peer to peer exchanges, there is no way that the government would be able to control them or even control their asset and freeze it.

[doomloop]

Even from Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao himself saying that cryptocurrencies won’t help evade sanctions.  

But from my own perspective, Russia can possibly evade sanctions if they turn towards full decentralization or exchanges refusing to ban Russians from using their respective platforms. Like for instance, mandating all businesses to accept crypto payments by using non-custodial wallets.

No matter what CZ says, it needs to be noted that CZ denied blocking Russian accounts from Binance through a rightful decision. So not sure why he thinks that cryptos can't help Russia evade the sanctions.

Russia can certainly try this. But considering the global sentiment is against Russia right at this moment, it may not be beneficial for them. Their internal economy can be supported by cryptos but the global trade won't go through crypto route.

The logic is that, if Russians want to hold wealth in another currency, it would be difficult, if it is all about just paying someone in another nation, then they could do it. The difference is that, if you want to pay me, someone who is not Russian, you can and Russia will be losing money there, whereas they will get something from me.

But, if you are a Russian wealthy person, then you can't just use crypto to take it out and turn it into another fiat. You can't just buy bitcoin with ruble, then turn that bitcoin into dollar and put that dollar into your bank account. Bank will notify the government and government will freeze your account and your money would be gone.

[Despairo]

But, one thing I do know for sure is that a decentralized exchange is always the best to use. When people are making use of peer to peer exchanges, there is no way that the government would be able to control them or even control their asset and freeze it.

Not all peer to peer exchanges is decentralized exchange, take a look with LocalBitcoins and Luno, it's peer to peer but still custodial platform. The exchange will know which IP you used and if they ask your KYC, you don't have any choice and let know you're Russian citizens. They may freeze your asset either on their platform or after you convert to Ruble. The real decentralized exchange is Bisq, hodlhodl, and Localcryptos.

[Etranger]

The logic is that, if Russians want to hold wealth in another currency, it would be difficult, if it is all about just paying someone in another nation, then they could do it. The difference is that, if you want to pay me, someone who is not Russian, you can and Russia will be losing money there, whereas they will get something from me.

But, if you are a Russian wealthy person, then you can't just use crypto to take it out and turn it into another fiat. You can't just buy bitcoin with ruble, then turn that bitcoin into dollar and put that dollar into your bank account. Bank will notify the government and government will freeze your account and your money would be gone.

And it's not just about that. Even if this could be done with less difficulty, it is still the path of a minority of the Russian population. It will not save the country from sanctions, although it may save some people. Russia is a country that exploits natural resources. It is vital for them to sell them. Without this permission, they will default. And even if there are not enough rational reasons for this and there are certain ways to circumvent the bans, the panic that has already gripped the population will end the case.

[Lubang Bawah]

Cryptocurrencies that are free and no one controls it make anyone not worry about receiving money, and the Russian government, which has legalized cryptocurrencies, of course understands that they can be subject to sanctions so that the presence of cryptocurrencies can avoid sanctions completely.

[DrBeer]

They can evade sanctions if they use gold, yuan or some other local currency too. The thing is, they won't be doing any trades with the countries that sanction them anyways so It doesn't matter what they use. Let's say Russia is trading with China. Does it matter if they use crypto or Yuans? Both countries see each other as allies... If you think the US companies will do business with Russia and evade the sanctions I think that's a very big problem for the US.

Hmm ... And tell me HOW? For example, the day before yesterday sanctions were introduced prohibiting transactions with Russian gold. Who can buy it? China. But China will buy it at the price it sets itself. Russia has no choice and Russia cannot put pressure on China, because. itself is essentially an appendage of China!
Yuan or, for example, North Korean won - well, ok. And what do they buy for yuan or won? China will most likely raise prices in yuan (already deliveries to Russia are coming with a 30-40% price increase), or set prices in dollars, which evaporate catastrophically in Russia. What will any local currency give them if they need Western products and technologies?

[LUCKMCFLY]

That's not how sanctions work.
Let's imagine the sanction on Russian gas/oil. If Europe is starving for gas and aren't allowed to buy it from Russia they will not buy it from Russia. Cryptocurrencies don't even come in! Similarly if the starving European countries decided they have no other choice to buy Russian gas they will buy it again there is no cryptocurrencies involved!
That's the same with anything else that was sanctioned.

And now Russia has finally stopped shipping gas to Europe, which makes European countries finally constrained by gas consumption for factory needs. It turns out that the impact of sanctions against Russia was actually retaliated by stopping gas exports, we know Russia is the largest gas producer in the world and even Francis is the country that buys gas the most from Russia, now he appeals to its citizens not to panic and will immediately take alternative actions using coal. Closing each other's economic gaps has an impact on the instability of other countries. And one thing, non-block countries like me are experiencing the impact of the invasion which is almost a few days where we live the internet is completely down.

It is that this is a consequence of the answers that Russia obviously had to give, but what is most impressive of all is Biden's actions with respect to Oil, he sent a special high command commission in the USA to speak with Maduro in Venezuela, then in the NYT it appears that they recognize Maduro as president, when they assumed that Guaidó was president, then they reach agreements such as Venezuela reopening operations with the USA for oil, and in turn they send oil specialists to help steal more than Venezuela, then Biden comes out saying that he does not want more Russian oil, I think this is a function that nobody expected, what other scenarios will Biden take to get out of trouble?

[Captain Corporate]

 Sometimes when you are fighting against a bigger threat, you leave all the politics aside and deal with what hand you are dealt with. If Russia wants to play ball, Biden is ready to play ball. This is a refreshing sight to see after last president ended up licking Putins boots. Russia has always been the enemy of the USA and last president liked their dictator so much because he wanted to be like him. This is why it is obvious that Biden taking a stance that matters to many americans. Russia can't just attack on Ukraine, get sanctions because of their killings, and then assume that cutting of gas would be fine to make europe take a step back. All of europe will eventually find a resolution, maybe today, maybe in a month, maybe in a few years who knows, but we all know that from this day forward, nobody will want to do business with Russia and be ready to get "independent from Russia" even after sanctions are over.

[DrBeer]

......
It is that this is a consequence of the answers that Russia obviously had to give, but what is most impressive of all is Biden's actions with respect to Oil, he sent a special high command commission in the USA to speak with Maduro in Venezuela, then in the NYT it appears that they recognize Maduro as president, when they assumed that Guaidó was president, then they reach agreements such as Venezuela reopening operations with the USA for oil, and in turn they send oil specialists to help steal more than Venezuela, then Biden comes out saying that he does not want more Russian oil, I think this is a function that nobody expected, what other scenarios will Biden take to get out of trouble?

In general, the problem of sagging oil supplies seems to have been solved ...

Venezuela will sell oil to the United States.
Caracas intends to increase oil production in 2022 to 2-3 million barrels per day and sell it in the United States.
"Venezuela is open to investment, oil and gas production, oil and gas stability around the world, including the United States. We are ready to sell US oil and gas, we must not politicize economic issues," said Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). President Nicolas Maduro.
Nothing personal, just business

[MCVXYZ]

The Russia's central bank wanted cryptocurrencies to be banned in its country but the Russian president, Vladimir Putin said bitcoin mining and other crypto mining will be beneficial for Russia. Some people at that time have been supectimg this could be a move by the Russia's president that he is planning to invade Ukraine which will result to sanctions, thinking cryptocurrencies would be a means to evade sanctions and make it economically less effective.

Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov demand crypto exchanges to freeze all Russian accounts so that the sanction can be effective, but most exchanges did not support this. I read few days ago that cryptocurrencies may not help in Russia sanction but FinCEN concluded that Russia can attempt to use cryptocurrencies to evade sanctions.

FinCEN Provides Financial Institutions with Red Flags on Potential Russian Sanctions Evasion Attempts

What is your take? What role can cryptocurrencies play in helping Russia sanctions evasion and to what extent can this be?

Its hard to answer, They will try everything to avoid sanctions including cryptocurrencies, but as of now in USA as FinCEN said, they haven't seen widespread evasion of sanctions using cryptocurrency and as I know it takes time for authorities to study how can they prevent  potential Russian sanctions evasion and they will study this from time to time.

[Wind_FURY]

They can evade sanctions if they use gold, yuan or some other local currency too. The thing is, they won't be doing any trades with the countries that sanction them anyways so It doesn't matter what they use. Let's say Russia is trading with China. Does it matter if they use crypto or Yuans? Both countries see each other as allies... If you think the US companies will do business with Russia and evade the sanctions I think that's a very big problem for the US.

Sending and getting the Gold to evade sanctions will be risky because of issues with portability. Using Yuan, and other fiat currencies will only strengthen that government's political influence over you. Plus it requires trust over centralized entry, and exit points which could censor you. If only if someone invented a protocol that's open, permissionless and neutral.

[Obito]

The addresses that's sending large amounts of money are going to be investigated and if was proven to be used as a means to fund the war effort, I'm sure that people that has the power and influence are going to make sure that the Russian government won't be able to do that.

[Tony116]

......
It is that this is a consequence of the answers that Russia obviously had to give, but what is most impressive of all is Biden's actions with respect to Oil, he sent a special high command commission in the USA to speak with Maduro in Venezuela, then in the NYT it appears that they recognize Maduro as president, when they assumed that Guaidó was president, then they reach agreements such as Venezuela reopening operations with the USA for oil, and in turn they send oil specialists to help steal more than Venezuela, then Biden comes out saying that he does not want more Russian oil, I think this is a function that nobody expected, what other scenarios will Biden take to get out of trouble?

In general, the problem of sagging oil supplies seems to have been solved ...

Venezuela will sell oil to the United States.
Caracas intends to increase oil production in 2022 to 2-3 million barrels per day and sell it in the United States.
"Venezuela is open to investment, oil and gas production, oil and gas stability around the world, including the United States. We are ready to sell US oil and gas, we must not politicize economic issues," said Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). President Nicolas Maduro.
Nothing personal, just business

US is considering lifting sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry, Maduro has also announced an increase in oil production to replace Russian supplies.
But this is difficult to do in the short term, given the heavy impact of years-long US sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry, which has been abandoned. Experts estimate it will take several years and cost billions of dollars to help Venezuela's oil industry recover.

[goldkingcoiner]

I think you people are severly underestimating the gigantic funds that an entire country like Russia has. Bitcoin has nowhere the market cap to compensate for that. Russia investing state funds into Bitcoin is nothing like El Salvador investing their state peanuts. We are talking about amounts in the trillions. Can you imagine the volatility? Any active investor would use the chance of Bitcoin going from 40k to 4 million to sell for profit and then Russias Bitcoins would drop in value. The Russian state is not going to do that...

The idea itself is possible. But only if half of the entire world aka every second country in the world was already hodling Bitcoin. And even then, Russia would have second thoughts because even then Bitcoin would be too volatile.

[Mauser]

What is your take? What role can cryptocurrencies play in helping Russia sanctions evasion and to what extent can this be?

I hope it's not the case, because if Western countries see that crypto currencies circumvent all the sanctions than we could face direct bans on cryptos even if we had nothing to do with the Russian sanctions. It would shed a bad light on cryptos again.
Also I think that cryptos are no real alternative for the swift system to save Russian banks. Most of the bank subsidiaries in Europe deal in Euros, so they still would need to aquire large amounts of foreign currencies, just against cryptos and not the ruble. And then there are the large amounts of western companies who are leaving the Russian market. Which is having a big impact, a lot of employees are losing there jobs. I am not sure if cryptos could help here, because if it comes public that one of the major companies circumventes the sanctions it could become a PR debacle and ruin the public image.

[Reid]

That is not how it works. Actually, United States and Ukraine stretched it to cryptocurrencies and that includes exchange based on Russia.
Just like McDonald's they want them to pull out their businesses there or it will be a bigger problem for them in the future. They are watching and even Coinbase and Binance are being talked about their Russian users to be blocked.
War is way different today. Not that I like it but you can sit in your room with a computer and internet and be part of it.

[kryptqnick]

The Russia's central bank wanted cryptocurrencies to be banned in its country but the Russian president, Vladimir Putin said bitcoin mining and other crypto mining will be beneficial for Russia. Some people at that time have been supectimg this could be a move by the Russia's president that he is planning to invade Ukraine which will result to sanctions, thinking cryptocurrencies would be a means to evade sanctions and make it economically less effective.

Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov demand crypto exchanges to freeze all Russian accounts so that the sanction can be effective, but most exchanges did not support this. I read few days ago that cryptocurrencies may not help in Russia sanction but FinCEN concluded that Russia can attempt to use cryptocurrencies to evade sanctions.

FinCEN Provides Financial Institutions with Red Flags on Potential Russian Sanctions Evasion Attempts

What is your take? What role can cryptocurrencies play in helping Russia sanctions evasion and to what extent can this be?

While big crypto exchanges aren't going to block all Russian accounts because, the way Binance explained it, they're not sure if it's legal to do that (and they're probably right that it's not), they are restricting those accounts that can be linked to government or belonging to people who are under sanctions. But I agree that avoiding these restrictions on a small-scale is possible (if the amounts of money are not big enough to raise concerns and there's a bunch of people involved). Putting large funds into or pulling them out of Bitcoin can prove much harder. Also, there isn't much to sell for Bitcoin when reserved funds are frozen and many assets are frozen as well, not to mention that it seems to me Putin doesn't want to abandon ruble and is thus unlikely to approve transferring what's left of Russia's budget into something like Bitcoin. So it's all good.

[Quidat]

The addresses that's sending large amounts of money are going to be investigated and if was proven to be used as a means to fund the war effort, I'm sure that people that has the power and influence are going to make sure that the Russian government won't be able to do that.

For now this is the only thing on which Bitcoin or crypto could really play on on which transactions would be truly anonymous but speaking on evasion on sanctions then it is possible but still be hard
considering that there are situations which do really needed up for those typical transactions and transfers which needing those typical behavior.
Lots of sanctions had been applied against them but doesnt seem that they are been affected that much.

[STT]

That would be quite a humiliating U-turn to make and quite pathetic even by Putin's standards, I dont believe it especially.   The plan of Russia and all the elite who rule over the population will be to avoid sanctions via gold which is a far larger market, longer established and also in demand by several trading partners.   The middle east values gold and also Asia especially China who are a massive potential customer and until a few years back had no gold at all in their reserves so they want Russia to trade that gold to them and also the oil.
  BTC really doesnt figure in all of this, the citizens will be aided I'd hope as they of course suffer the most from the poor actions of government like every country pretty much.

[CaVO32]

That would be quite a humiliating U-turn to make and quite pathetic even by Putin's standards, I dont believe it especially.   The plan of Russia and all the elite who rule over the population will be to avoid sanctions via gold which is a far larger market, longer established and also in demand by several trading partners.   The middle east values gold and also Asia especially China who are a massive potential customer and until a few years back had no gold at all in their reserves so they want Russia to trade that gold to them and also the oil.
  BTC really doesnt figure in all of this, the citizens will be aided I'd hope as they of course suffer the most from the poor actions of government like every country pretty much.

I am also with you here. Bitcoin or any other crypto won't be their first alternative choice here but rather other assets like gold. Remember, China banned crypto miners already. So how can they trade crypto with China? So possibly one of the first alternatives is via convert their money to Chinese Yuan or buy gold. Bitcoin as well as crypto may be part of the alternatives but I don't think it would be their main option. They need to consider the other countries that may possibly accept their trade.