What do you think the effects of soaring prices and fiat depreciation is on BTC?

[TimeTeller]

My idea is that there can be money devaluation which is normal right from when fiat was created in a way to help the economy, even all the world are experiencing fiat devaluation as a result of Covid-19, even the war between Ukraine and Russia may contribute more to this which can take years.

But what is still getting me confused is that we do not know what will be bitcoin all-time-low from 2020 to 2024 would be, if the price of bitcoin is decreasing, it will be more profitable for people that buy at the lower price (but waiting can be a way someone can miss the next bull run).

In long term speculation, if someone can hold bitcoin for long, like for 2, 3 or more years, buying during this time will not be a bad idea at all, but there can still be more downturn. With $69000 all-time-high, bitcoin has reduced in price to $39000, if someone buy bitcoin now and hold it for long and if he is not panic during downturn, but smiles and waiting for bull run, certainly bitcoin will reach all-time-high and this will be an hedge against inflation.

+1 , the devaluation will always there no matter what , that is the nature of money itself.

Just like the inflation, that's why bitcoin invented.
Isn't it as a money revolution as well as an inflation hedge, no? People will always run into bitcoin from now on when they looking for a safe haven from such uncertainity of depreciation / inflation.

Maybe not all, but a lot of them will notice the crypto market as possible alternative to invest their assets.
Some will still stick to tangible assets like precious gems, real-estate assets.
We can't expect everyone to get involved with crypto because some of them have no idea how to transact with crypto.
Though some will try their hands on crypto because of what they are reading from the news, which can drive more adoption.

[Scripture]

My idea is that there can be money devaluation which is normal right from when fiat was created in a way to help the economy, even all the world are experiencing fiat devaluation as a result of Covid-19, even the war between Ukraine and Russia may contribute more to this which can take years.

But what is still getting me confused is that we do not know what will be bitcoin all-time-low from 2020 to 2024 would be, if the price of bitcoin is decreasing, it will be more profitable for people that buy at the lower price (but waiting can be a way someone can miss the next bull run).

In long term speculation, if someone can hold bitcoin for long, like for 2, 3 or more years, buying during this time will not be a bad idea at all, but there can still be more downturn. With $69000 all-time-high, bitcoin has reduced in price to $39000, if someone buy bitcoin now and hold it for long and if he is not panic during downturn, but smiles and waiting for bull run, certainly bitcoin will reach all-time-high and this will be an hedge against inflation.

+1 , the devaluation will always there no matter what , that is the nature of money itself.

Just like the inflation, that's why bitcoin invented.
Isn't it as a money revolution as well as an inflation hedge, no? People will always run into bitcoin from now on when they looking for a safe haven from such uncertainity of depreciation / inflation.

Bitcoin should not be tagged as safe haven since the price is very volatile and no assurance for the future price of Bitcoin. The value of money will always devaluate because of the cost of living and since some of our resources are limited as well especially on a 3rd world country, there’s a higher possibility for the big inflation as the war continues. Bitcoin should stay as what it is, and should not fall to any centralized system, the planning of US regulations are alarming for me.

[GreatArkansas]

(....)
How much do you think bitcoin price is going to rise this year because of all this economical drama?

For me short-term - mid-term, I am expecting a crypto market winter where the price of Bitcoin or other altcoins will be in sideways, I am not expecting again a huge dump just like what happened for the past few years. With all events like this, especially the inflation, Bitcoin is the key for it, and most people for sure starting to seek some solution for what we are experiencing now and they will start to look at Bitcoin and they start to learn why Bitcoin is one of the solutions of fiat depreciation.

[lizarder]

~
the evidence can be seen from various existing media sources, as I said before, the effect of war tensions between the two countries is indeed there, but the effect is not that big, in the past two days bitcoin has gone up a little better, although it finally returned down, if this is broadly linked to the case, should bitcoin have been at its lowest price since the start of the war, I understand that?

Yeah, the effects haven't been that big so far but the price fluctuations and fear in the energy market was also never this high. As I said this price rise affects everything, oil, etc. are not just some some random assets in some market, they affect everything.

P.S. It seems like two Saudi oil facilities were hit again yesterday during all these price rises although there is a heavy media silence looming over it or it is being heavily censored. Oil market doesn't seem to have felt the fear yet.

for the issue of fluctuations and fears in the energy market may have an impact on this case, because oil is a much needed energy source for now, when this happens and gets worse, maybe there crypto in general will be affected more, but this will take time, and I think in the future if this case of tension escalates and crypto is not affected more, then the achievement of new ATH specifically for bitcoin will be even more likely

[affandi]

On one hand we have the decreasing oil supply that is shooting the oil price up to the moon, that in turn has been increasing the fuel prices up to record highs, that in turn will increase cost of transport that affects cost of everything else from groceries to rent.
We also have the conflicts in major oil rich regions (Russia and Arab countries) that is threatening to escalate and cut off more oil from global supply increasing it to over $200.

On the other hand we have the inflation thanks to money printing spree that governments had over the past couple of years and don't seem to want to slow down. Which means price of everything is rising even more while fiat value keeps dumping.

In my experience when fiat is dumping people will look for a way to keep their purchase power or at least part of it. That is achieved by investment. I believe bitcoin has become a viable investment for many because of its deflationary nature and the fact that it has been performing excellently all these years.

To be honest, currently investors are still hedging to safer investment assets such as Gold and Silver because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and that has also made world oil prices rise drastically.

I think that currently investors are not very interested in bitcoin because the volatility is quite high and the Fed will increase interest rates, because it makes Bitcoin's purchasing power decrease and it also makes investors more careful to put their money into certain assets.

How much do you think bitcoin price is going to rise this year because of all this economical drama?

I can't expect much for the price of bitcoin in 2022 because a lot of drama is not over yet.

[pooya87]

This is your problem, always your hate for the western world pushes to analyze situations in a way to arrive at the conclusion you want not at the obvious one.

Where did you get that from?!
I don't even see the world as East/West even though I use those terms because that's the language people understand.

The Arab nations tried to play this game and force the US in a corner, ended up with the US becoming the biggest oil producer,

The "Arab nations" are, as US officials put it, milking cows that have always done what they were ordered by US. In fact some people refer to them as US 51st states since they are already colonized.

Any way back to topic...

You could look at the price chart and then look the rush of investors selling bread and MRE for BTC.

I have no idea why you think inflation (something we have had ever since modern society was created and paper money was created) means going hungry or having to choose between bread and investment

Again, analysing facts in such a way to arrive to your already established conclusion is NOT analysing, is wishful thinking!

That may be but you haven't given me any reason to believe otherwise!

For me short-term - mid-term, I am expecting a crypto market winter where the price of Bitcoin or other altcoins will be in sideways, I am not expecting again a huge dump just like what happened for the past few years. With all events like this, especially the inflation, Bitcoin is the key for it, and most people for sure starting to seek some solution for what we are experiencing now and they will start to look at Bitcoin and they start to learn why Bitcoin is one of the solutions of fiat depreciation.

In a way this is also my conclusion. By all logic and history I expected bigger rises or at least the beginning of them in March but when I look at the market sentiment, the manipulation and the ups and downs of past 4 months I can only expect more sideways while market participants remain undecided.
What I'm intently watching is the events I mentioned in OP and their effects on bitcoin price.

To be honest, currently investors are still hedging to safer investment assets such as Gold and Silver because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and that has also made world oil prices rise drastically.

There is no denying that, my point is that investors have a "basket" that contains multiple assets. In the past years bitcoin has been part of that basket, specially since bitcoin market has never followed any other markets.

[Lucius]

In my experience when fiat is dumping people will look for a way to keep their purchase power or at least part of it. That is achieved by investment. I believe bitcoin has become a viable investment for many because of its deflationary nature and the fact that it has been performing excellently all these years.

I would agree with this thinking that people have an understanding of what Bitcoin really is and how it can help them become more financially independent, but I don't think there is a global awareness of that at the moment. If we take into account that according to some estimates there are at least 100 million people in the world who invest in cryptocurrencies (meaning not exclusively in Bitcoin), and even if we double that number to 200 million - globally very few people are willing to invest in Bitcoin.

In times of inflation and wars, people have been very careful with their money so far, I wonder if it is the same now or they will start to think differently.

How much do you think bitcoin price is going to rise this year because of all this economical drama?

The beginning of the year was not promising in that regard, but it seems to me that we should not expect any spectacular things in terms of price in the current conditions. I think it's good that the price stays stable in the range of $35k to $45k, and that upper limit so far shows very high resilience. It is difficult to say what will happen with the war and how drastic the inflation will be, and the price of Bitcoin will depend a lot on it.

[el kaka22]

All of those things (transport, groceries, rent, oil, etc etc) caused the fiat to be less valuable and that is correct. However since it became less valuable, people needed more of it to pay for their stuff. This resulted with nothing great for us, not bad but not great neither.

The main reason is that the amount of people who bought bitcoins to store their value ended up being a little bit equal to the people who needed to cash out so they can pay for stuff. This is not exactly 1 to 1 ratio but at the same time the difference is not staggering which is why I believe that there wasn't really that much of a difference between the two that caused the price to go big in any direction.

[usekevin]

On one hand we have the decreasing oil supply that is shooting the oil price up to the moon, that in turn has been increasing the fuel prices up to record highs, that in turn will increase cost of transport that affects cost of everything else from groceries to rent.
We also have the conflicts in major oil rich regions (Russia and Arab countries) that is threatening to escalate and cut off more oil from global supply increasing it to over $200.

On the other hand we have the inflation thanks to money printing spree that governments had over the past couple of years and don't seem to want to slow down. Which means price of everything is rising even more while fiat value keeps dumping.

Now after the war involvement of Russia against Ukraine had influence the oil price more.When the oil price boost up, surely in turn increase the price for the transport.Transport price which further include the variation in the commodity price.The commodities like fruits, vegetables and food grains.

In my experience when fiat is dumping people will look for a way to keep their purchase power or at least part of it. That is achieved by investment. I believe bitcoin has become a viable investment for many because of its deflationary nature and the fact that it has been performing excellently all these years.

How much do you think bitcoin price is going to rise this year because of all this economical drama?

Now the price of bitcoin and other altcoin was not volatile.So this is best time to inverse your money for the long term for good benefits. The price of bitcoin gonna increase double of current value after the Inflation dramas.

[buwaytress]

All of those things (transport, groceries, rent, oil, etc etc) caused the fiat to be less valuable and that is correct. However since it became less valuable, people needed more of it to pay for their stuff. This resulted with nothing great for us, not bad but not great neither.

The point I keep saying from before. Think even in 2020 when economists were predicting a recession to rival or even outstrip the Great Depression, leading to all the talk about Bitcoin rising like a phoenix, I couldn't see it. Yes, it "rose" from the ashes of the great banking collapse a decade ago, but when bills go up and food becomes dearer, people are going to be selling their gold, Bitcoin, dig into their savings, cut down on DCA. Hungry mouths are loud. The first victims are regular Joes and their modest BTC holdings.

[davis196]

The current oil shortage is artificially created by the western sanctions imposed over Russian.
There might be a short term oil shortage in the western world(despite the fact that the western countries have some oil reserves).This will pump the oil prices in the western world.On the other hand,Russian oil price are dropping,because Russia cannot sell it's oil to the west and China cannot fully replace the western oil buyers.The war will end some day and Russia has to sell the oil to the west.
Long story short,I don't expect the oil prices to hit 200 USD.
All the "Bitcoin price will go up,because money printers go brrr..." mantras sound really compelling,but this simply isn't happening in the recent weeks.Perhaps the BTC traders are too scared of the war in Ukraine and all that BS about World War 3/nuclear war and a new great depression.The fear will continue to dominate the BTC market,so no fiat money printers can pump the BTC price right now.

[pooya87]

because Russia cannot sell it's oil to the west

If by West you mean US then Russia wasn't really exporting that much oil to US in first place for this sanction to have a big effect. The rest of the "West" haven't sanctioned Russian oil as far as I know and they are still buying it.
In fact almost all sanctions against Russia have been silly so far like banning Russian cats and stuff like that.

[Lucius]

If by West you mean US then Russia wasn't really exporting that much oil to US in first place for this sanction to have a big effect. The rest of the "West" haven't sanctioned Russian oil as far as I know and they are still buying it.

The Russians boast that they sell quite enough gas and oil despite the sanctions, and how could it not be when the whole EU depends on their gas, and China, with which they do business normally, can easily buy everything that others do not want.

In fact almost all sanctions against Russia have been silly so far like banning Russian cats and stuff like that.

Sanctions have no effect in the short term, and some analysts say it would take years for Russia to feel them in the right way. Russians are finding holes everywhere, so despite the ban on passenger planes, they continue to fly across the EU using the so-called "Serbian backdoor", which has not imposed sanctions on Russia. What does the EU say about the behavior of a country negotiating EU accession? Nothing, they pretend not to be aware of how someone is undermining their sanctions, if they can be called sanctions at all.

[GeorgeJohn]

How much do you think bitcoin price is going to rise this year because of all this economical drama?

We all know that environmental issues affects economy and the same is applicable to the Bitcoin, so from my observation and the looks of bitcoin fluctuations this period, it's seems that Bitcoin regulations starting early this year is showing categorically that Bitcoin is in Flux, saying a particular stages of bitcoin increment and Bitcoin acceleration will get to a specific point in price is just like assumptions, because since 2022 Bitcoin has not done well in price like last year regulations or increase in price, so I'm expecting Bitcoin to get nice increase by next year

[Kelvinid]

My opinion in this is it won't affect much on Bitcoin but if we talk about it in the global market, there we can see shooting prices in all goods and most particularly in oil prices. I see it going worse if the war continues and more people suffer the impact of the conflicts.

But on the crypto side, Bitcoin prices remain calm and growing. Even the war still going on and there is fiat money devaluation, crypto investors will find their way to invest. We don't have to worry about the situation, this can actually be resolved so I believe that investing in Bitcoin is still safe.

[stompix]

Any way back to topic...

The topic was about the imaginary $200 for the barrel of oil that will bankrupt Europe, in case you've forgotten your first phrase of the starting topic.
And I've already shown you the two scenarios that in theory cold boost the price there as well as why they will fail, a thing that you miraculously again avoided, since it doesn't fit your we're all doom and Iran is a global superpower scenario!

Btw, what happened to the oil price lately?

I have no idea why you think inflation (something we have had ever since modern society was created and paper money was created) means going hungry or having to choose between bread and investment

You're underestimating the poverty levels in the world always and you forget that bitcoin as much as you hate it is a commodity that is basically traded in dollars.
For a guy that lives with 30000 rubles and managed to put aide 8 000 inflation at 20% will munch 5000 of them and the exchange rate will further drop his investments from $130 to $20. Now, do this for somebody who only managed to put 5% aside, they will not be able to invest, they will have to sell to survive.
With everything that is basic for living everywhere in the world the amount of money people afford to invest is going down the drain while the amount of money they have to pull from under the sofa is growing. Common, use logic!

That may be but you haven't given me any reason to believe otherwise!

Do I honestly have to put a printscreen for the bitcoin price chart since the first jump in inflation in the US in Europe?
The first jump happened in February 2021 and the second in November...how did the price fare from February 2021?
Where is that buying power-driven by millions seeking refuge from inflation?

[FanEagle]

The current oil shortage is artificially created by the western sanctions imposed over Russian.
There might be a short term oil shortage in the western world(despite the fact that the western countries have some oil reserves).This will pump the oil prices in the western world.On the other hand,Russian oil price are dropping,because Russia cannot sell it's oil to the west and China cannot fully replace the western oil buyers.The war will end some day and Russia has to sell the oil to the west.
Long story short,I don't expect the oil prices to hit 200 USD.
All the "Bitcoin price will go up,because money printers go brrr..." mantras sound really compelling,but this simply isn't happening in the recent weeks.Perhaps the BTC traders are too scared of the war in Ukraine and all that BS about World War 3/nuclear war and a new great depression.The fear will continue to dominate the BTC market,so no fiat money printers can pump the BTC price right now.

Even if somehow it hits 200 bucks, which I believe it will not and it is already dropping under 100 very fast (104 last I checked) from all the way at 120+, I still think that it will be recovered before the war ends.

I mean USA already found another supplier, and west will find it as well, and china won't be able to buy all oils from Russia, all of these will end up with a better result in the short term as well as long term as well. This is why I believe that we are in a situation where things are looking better. I mean it is not as good as we want, but it is definitely not going to stand like this for too long.

[Wind_FURY]

How much do you think bitcoin price is going to rise this year because of all this economical drama?

Bitcoin might not surge like it did during 2020 and 2021 because the bear cycle might be starting. But ZOOM OUT, it might actually give us plebs another golden opportunity to buy near the 200-weekly SMA, which Bitcoin has been crashing through during bear cycles. That's the only DIP I like.

[FanEagle]

How much do you think bitcoin price is going to rise this year because of all this economical drama?

Bitcoin might not surge like it did during 2020 and 2021 because the bear cycle might be starting. But ZOOM OUT, it might actually give us plebs another golden opportunity to buy near the 200-weekly SMA, which Bitcoin has been crashing through during bear cycles. That's the only DIP I like.

This was what I was thinking when we first reached 64k and then dropped during the summer period, but then in October it reached 68k again. So, we already had a 50% drop and then another 2x or more in a single year. Which made me question if we are in the bear market cycle of the market right now or could that change constantly?

I am not saying that it will change, I mean it could surely change and go to 60k+ too, but could stay here for another year as well and wait for the next halving. Hopefully we would be more like 2021 where we would go up without waiting for the halving, that would be a lot better to be involved instead of waiting for the next halving.

[pooya87]

The topic was about the imaginary $200 for the barrel of oil that will bankrupt Europe, in case you've forgotten your first phrase of the starting topic.

The main topic is effects of "soaring prices and fiat depreciation is on bitcoin price". The part about $200 per oil barrel is mentioning some possibilities that are discussed among analysts. I didn't think a detail would mislead some readers to focus on that part and ignore the topic.

Btw, what happened to the oil price lately?

A lot of interesting things actually. But only if you are not zoomed in one short term volatility.
[I'm not an oil market analyst so these are just my thoughts.]
The recent events proved once again that there is a concerning level of oil (gas, etc) shortage in the world otherwise those who kept threatening Russian sanctions would have moved ahead and actually sanctioned Russia's energy exports.
The global spare oil production capacity has also been shrinking that is going to continue being a contributor to increasing oil prices.

Regardless of the recent short term volatility the oil price has been rising for a long time. It was about $20 mid 2020 and kept on rising in the past 2 years and it was about $90 before Russian invasion even began (reminder: long term). Interestingly this 350% rise is something that some people don't want to see.

The recent short term volatility is not so different from what we see (maybe in an exaggerated way) in bitcoin. The emotional market behavior doesn't define the overall trend.
For example the jump was the emotional response to a couple of events one of which was Russian invasion and the media's super coverage. Similarly the panic sell is the emotional response to a couple of events including the Russian negotiation and the news about UK buying 2 of their spies from Iran for half a billion dollar that signals possibility of Iran's oil coming back to European markets.

With everything that is basic for living everywhere in the world the amount of money people afford to invest is going down the drain while the amount of money they have to pull from under the sofa is growing. Common, use logic!

I respect your opinion but as I explained my observation of inflations is different. I have always seen enough number of people investing their fiat into certain assets that actually increases their price.

The first jump happened in February 2021 and the second in November...how did the price fare from February 2021?

LONG TERM price from February 2021 to April went up and reached a new ATH. The 16% drop in last week of February is irrelevant since risen costs of everything didn't go back to normal after that week whereas bitcoin price kept rising for about 3 months.
The fact that your theory doesn't work for the February case, you can't use it for November either even though price hasn't gone back up yet.