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Author Topic: Before the next big rise, I just wanted to get my two cents in  (Read 5622 times)
trogdorjw73
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December 09, 2011, 03:53:41 PM
 #41

A silent tip for the rational types: The sentimental bulls have declared victory, this is a great time to short.

That's also a sentiment - all we have is sentiment. There's nothing rational here (otherwise we'd all do the rational thing if we knew what it was)
The rational thing for me is to play some Batman: Arkham City for a bit. Wheee!   Grin

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dancupid
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December 09, 2011, 04:00:01 PM
 #42

A silent tip for the rational types: The sentimental bulls have declared victory, this is a great time to short.

That's also a sentiment - all we have is sentiment. There's nothing rational here (otherwise we'd all do the rational thing if we knew what it was)
The rational thing for me is to play some Batman: Arkham City for a bit. Wheee!   Grin

I prefer the irrational - I play Minecraft - I'm not sure why, or even the point.
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December 09, 2011, 04:04:09 PM
 #43

No it's just the observation that we haven't had higher highs for a time now plus the weekend is coming up.

The statement about 'declaring victory' may be a bit provocative but each time one specific group was screaming the loudest we were heading for the opposite direction. That was the case when we did hit 2 and people were trumpeting for 1.X and I think the same thing will be the case now.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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December 09, 2011, 04:07:16 PM
 #44


The statement about 'declaring victory' may be a bit provocative but each time one specific group was screaming the loudest we were heading for the opposite direction.

You're pretty loud.
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December 09, 2011, 04:10:17 PM
 #45

Reverse psychology eh?  Cheesy

(I for one would be fine if prices would stay in the 2.X range for a long time, and you're right this probably will not happen... but I can still hope)

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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December 09, 2011, 04:26:17 PM
 #46

Reverse psychology eh?  Cheesy

(I for one would be fine if prices would stay in the 2.X range for a long time, and you're right this probably will not happen... but I can still hope)

the problem is that markets are irrational.  this is a direct result of the CB's creating moral hazard via pumping of fiat.  they literally WANT us to speculate to drive risk assets higher.  thats all they have at this point and its going to work.  otherwise watch your USD's devalue.  the pendulum swung up to 32, down to 2, and now...
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December 09, 2011, 05:02:16 PM
 #47

the problem is that markets are irrational.  this is a direct result of the CB's creating moral hazard via pumping of fiat.  they literally WANT us to speculate to drive risk assets higher.  thats all they have at this point and its going to work.  otherwise watch your USD's devalue.  the pendulum swung up to 32, down to 2, and now...

This is why the Bitcoin market may be the most rational one on the planet at the moment. Yes, it is affected by capital flows from contemporary markets, but it reacts the way a free and open market would - overall, market participants learn and adopt mostly reasonable practices (nothing is perfectly efficient or rational).

The size of the market and the stock to flow ratio are the major factors to consider for the long-term. As the stock to flow ratio increases, fluctuations should stabilize without external flow as there will be reduced incentive for miners to dump newly-found coins. Any external flow (USD->BTC, etc) will cause exchange rate price movements, but larger pools of wealth tend to leave increasing traces of themselves in the smaller ones, just like fiat->gold - it's a gradual transition.

I would say general adoption of Bitcoin could easily bring the BTC/USD rate to the mid $60s along a gradual rise within four years (assuming no further QE... ha!). However, I doubt things will be very gradual. It's more likely than not there will be more exogenous shocks that cause volatile foreign exchange prices.
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December 11, 2011, 06:23:36 PM
 #48

the weekend is coming up.

Here we are in the weekend!  Wink

(BFL)^2 < 0
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December 12, 2011, 01:36:43 AM
 #49

the weekend is coming up.

Here we are in the weekend!  Wink


 Omg, Omg, what's happening?!  *looks for the panic sell buy ZOMG button*

If you're not excited by the idea of being an early adopter 'now', then you should come back in three or four years and either tell us "Told you it'd never work!" or join what should, by then, be a much more stable and easier-to-use system. - GA
It is being worked on by smart people. -DamienBlack
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January 07, 2012, 03:06:28 AM
 #50

It is now one month later and I was correct, it is evident among the community that $2/coin will never be seen again and it is becoming increasingly apparent that even $3/coin is unlikely. The price has risen big especially in the last couple of days and I was accurate about this being the case within a month.

If there are any large financial institutions reading this that would like to hire me on retainer I can be reached via email. I am in the process of providing technical Bitcoin support and ROI estimation for two smaller investors, but I would be willing to work exclusively with you if you desired. Thanks for your consideration.

OrganofCorti's Neighbourhood Pool Watch - The most informative website on blockchain health
StewartJ
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January 07, 2012, 04:28:18 AM
 #51

I like this post, its a very reasoned argument.

The idea of promoting Bitcoins to everyone is a good one. In my own way through these forums, through buying/selling on the BTC exchanges, investing in my shares of a BTC Mining Company (TyGrr), and telling everyone I know about this currency, it helps develop this currency just a little more and helps Bitcoin grow in stature as a serious alternative/compliment to fiat currency.

But it's hard to fathom the concept of asking Bitcoin users to be involved in governmental acceptance of Bitcoin.

This crypto-currency was designed to avoid government oversight: decentralized, anonymous, unregulated.  These are not exactly government-friendly attributes... especially now, in light of our government's paranoia of "home-made" currencies and the Patriot Act with monitoring of all financial transactions and the signing of NDAA unlawful detention bill by Obama and Congress.

My 2 BTCs

SJ
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January 07, 2012, 11:42:07 AM
 #52

It is now one month later and I was correct, it is evident among the community that $2/coin will never be seen again and it is becoming increasingly apparent that even $3/coin is unlikely. The price has risen big especially in the last couple of days and I was accurate about this being the case within a month.

Yup, good call.

If there are any large financial institutions reading this that would like to hire me on retainer I can be reached via email.

Yea same here.  Any mid to large financial institutions can reach me via email or via PM.  Also, will accept BTC on retainer or for consultation.

College of Bucking Bulls Knowledge
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