i think we can say that if lotteries use variants of the bingo cage system (they blow air into the balls and let one ball come through a tube at a time) if it's good enough for handing out 500 million dollars to someone that can pick the winning balls then i think it's good enough to secure my bitcoin or whatever crypto i'm trying to store.
And do you have a high grade, thoroughly tested, independently audited, state or national level lottery machine in your house? Or do you have some kids toy you bought for 20 bucks? They are not comparable.
like radioactive decay being random. can you prove that? do you demand proof of it before you would accept it? probably not. in fact, you can't prove it. all you can do is say based on observations so far it seems to....
That's pretty much how all of science works. We have mountains of data from hundreds of years of global study that says that radioactive decay is random. How much data do you have on your little bingo machine at home?
This is again my point. I don't want entropy I
think is random. I want entropy which has been
proven to be random.
I would think the mechanical bingo method is good enough if you do a 24 word key.
There we go again. "I would think". What you are proposing may well be safe enough, but we don't
know that. And the amount of time and complexity required to exclude bias from a bingo machine is out of reach of the average Joe.
No one can perfectly determine the bias on a bingo machine.
First weigh every ball
Second do dozens of diameter and circumference measurements.
If you do this put the balls in and rotate machine for a minute the very act of rotation will alter the balls at they hit each other and even if they were not bias at the beginning of the roll they will be be the end of the roll.
What you are missing is that the bias created by rotating the machine and bouncing the balls would be random.
What you are missing is 2 machines 32 balls in machine one always change their bias with each and every roll
What you are missing is second machine with 64 balls changes the bias a tiny bit with every section.
compound an unknown bias which changes with every roll by 24 + 24 rolls it is random actually more random then is measurable by any mechanical means.
It is perfectly random" No it is randomly random. Nuff said
as I won't be able to convince you that buying a pair of 100 usd dollar bingo machines is pretty much mechanical perfection
with 2 givens just weigh the balls and measure the circumference of them.
If the balls are within 0.001 grams and 0.001mm my guess is it is far better than any other method.
Obviously if a ball is too big it may never be picked very easy to see if the balls are far too big or too small. Simply have a few precise holes
say
1 and 1/64 inch
1 inch
63/64 inch
31/32 inch
see at what point the ball fits if they are within 1/64 of an inch the bias won't do much.
if they should weigh 10 grams allow 9.99 to 10.01 grams
those would not greatly alter the bias.
who cares if it is not random but has an unknown bias to:
pick abandon 1001 out of 2,048,000 picks
pick zoo 999 out of 2,048,000 picks
the reality is no one will spin the machines enough to get a true number and the next spin can alter the math as the balls get worn.
so math would say it is not provable that it is random. which is what you are doing.
I agree it it not provable. In fact it is unlikely to be truly random, but it is not predictable via measuring techniques that we have.
so first word you got was a 1/2047 as predicted be a being with magical skill
second word you got was a 1/2048
third word you got was a 1/2049
fourth word you got was a 1/2047
so 24 words all picked and all very likely to be in the range of 1/2000 to 1/2100
vs a perfect 1/2048 pretty much is good enough in this world as it is cheap and easy to do.
vs dice which are easy to load
vs coins which are easy to load
vs random generators which are very hard to program truly random.
just saying if I need to make a list of 24 words for storing 1 million bucks.
I would prefer that I used the 2 bingo machines to pick the 24 words.
