Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia?

[Synchronice]

Let's keep in mind some important facts from the very beginning:
1. 45% of Russia's federal budget in 2021 came from oil and natural gas revenues
2. 49% of Russia's crude oil and condensate exports went to European OECD nations.
3. Supplies from Russia account for about 40% of the EU's natural gas imports
4. just under three-quarters of all Russian natural gas exports went to European countries in 2021

I hate when everyone talks about how is Europe, especially Germany going to replace the dependence on Russian gas? Wait, 20 centuries have passed without Russian gas and European countries still managed to not only survive but become the most amazing countries with the highest quality of life.


How the fuck is Russia going to replace the European market?
Russia has two options:
1. China - After Saudi Arabia, Russia is the second-largest gas & oil supplier for China.
2. India - Right now Russia accounts for 2% of Indian oil import after Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Russia will try to increase its oil and gas export in China & India but we should also don't forget some details:
1. The reason why I underlined Saudi Arabia is that they are one of the largest suppliers in these countries and probably they won't let Russia to easily take over them.
2. China and India probably sees that good relationship with West is better for them and they may see that Russia isn't a country that loves freedom.
3. China may use this as an advantage and milk Russia like a cow, good for China but not for Russia.


Europe & USA have a huge advantage over Russia, this is the education. Where do people go dream to study? In Russia, no! In the USA, UK, Germany, Canada, France, Ireland, Switzerland and other countries? Hell yes! Were top scientists from Russia? Hell no! But from western countries - hell yes.


The fact is the fact - war has one advantage, it always accelerates things up. In this war, we don't need to focus on military equipment but on our weak sides, everyone sees how bad military equipment Russia has compared to the western countries. Don't you think that after all the innovations that come from the USA and Europe, can't we significantly lessen the demand on gas and oil if the situation really requires that from us as soon as possible?

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[stompix]

How the fuck is Russia going to replace the European market?
Russia has two options:
1. China - After Saudi Arabia, Russia is the second-largest gas & oil supplier for China.

Before anyone even starts thinking of it, here is an article from the South China Morning Post, the arm of the English language propaganda of the CCP
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3172028/russian-gas-sales-china-will-not-make-loss-european-markets

Short story:

Russia exported 16.5 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas to China in 2021 via pipelines and in the form of liquefied natural gas.
However, Russia is exporting about 170 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas to the European markets every year and the prices for the two buyers are “dramatically different”, according to Mitrova. When the line is in operation by 2026, the annual supply of pipeline natural gas from Russia to China will rise to 48 bcm, nearly five times the 2021 figure.

Russia can only sell 10% of the gas it sells to Europe to China, there are not enough pipelines, and even the ones in construction expected to be finished 4 years from now will only have 1/3 of the capacity.
As for selling gas to India, good luck, there is no such thing even in construction.

As for oil, it doesn't even matter, all that Europe has to do is outbid others, let's see who can afford gas at 3 euros, the EU or Africa or South Asia.

[Synchronice]

As for oil, it doesn't even matter, all that Europe has to do is outbid others, let's see who can afford gas at 3 euros, the EU or Africa or South Asia.

That's what I am saying. China will milk them like a cow. Russia has made its economy hugely dependent on Gas & oil and if they make another mistake and make their gas sells dependent on China, it's a double loss. China may open roads for Russia but that's where they will be milked. Either way, Russia will have to sell it very cheap, and their income will be lower while resources for China will be cheap. Win for China, loss for Russia.

And India? It's a poor country too that won't be able to offer them the prices that Europeans were paying.

Also, there is one thing: Who wants to strengthen the relationship with Russia but destroy with Western countries? Anyone sees the logical reasons why would someone do that and commit suicide? This war was a very wrong move, Putin probably thought that he would conquer Donbas and Lugansk and the West would close its eyes as they did on Georgia (2008) and Crimea (2014). But he failed, failed very hard.

[Ozero]

The countries of the European Union have already had their own programs of phasing out the consumption of oil and gas as energy carriers, which harm the ecology of the world and accelerate climate change on the planet on a global scale. Russia's aggression against Ukraine is just really accelerating this process. It will not be in a decade, but much faster. Some states are not ready right now to abandon Russian oil and gas, and therefore they are looking for and finding an alternative to Russia. It will be hard for Europe, but devastating for the Russian economy. The aggressor, and such a cruel and insane one, must be punished.
To supply gas to China, it is necessary to build a gas pipeline, which will cost at least one hundred billion dollars and several years for this. Russia no longer has money or time.
India does not consume oil and gas in the volumes necessary for Russia. Therefore, Russia will lose in any case.

[Upgrade00]

I hate when everyone talks about how is Europe, especially Germany going to replace the dependence on Russian gas?

Everyone, in this case includes the German Leaders as well as other leaders of EU Nations.
The process to reduce or eliminate dependency on Russian oil has definitely started in many states and others including the U.S have outrightly banned imports.
The level of dependency greatly affects how quickly Nations can act in this case.

And of course, if (or rather when) Russia loses the EU market, it would greatly affect it's exports as that is their largest market for oil and gas.

Also, there is one thing: Who wants to strengthen the relationship with Russia but destroy with Western countries?

Most countries would not
China cod risk it, as majority of the world are heavily dependent on them, more so than Russia and as such they would not expect as stri k sanctions from the rest of the world.

[Findingnemo]

So if 50% of gas from Russia goes to the EU and they are consuming 40% which means if they completely stops gas from Russia either the price of gas will hike upto 40 to 50% or EU countries has to stop the transportation right? Russia may sell their oil to China and India but EU is going to buy from where?

[Leviathan.007]

Recently I see many people talking about suspension of any trade with Russia including banning the Russian gas to support Ukraine and the Ukrainian people, this case seems very good in the first place especially if they really can somehow damage the economy of Russia because a big part of the Russian foreign trades related to gas deal with Europe because they are the greatest supplier of Europe, but the thing is even if they ban the Russian gas, still Russians can keep selling the gas by using some countries as a proxy, also there are some other countries they are friend with Russia and they will not ban the Russian gas for sure.

[Freeesta]

Let's keep in mind some important facts from the very beginning:
1. 45% of Russia's federal budget in 2021 came from oil and natural gas revenues
2. 49% of Russia's crude oil and condensate exports went to European OECD nations.
3. Supplies from Russia account for about 40% of the EU's natural gas imports
4. just under three-quarters of all Russian natural gas exports went to European countries in 2021

I hate when everyone talks about how is Europe, especially Germany going to replace the dependence on Russian gas? Wait, 20 centuries have passed without Russian gas and European countries still managed to not only survive but become the most amazing countries with the highest quality of life.


How the fuck is Russia going to replace the European market?
Russia has two options:
1. China - After Saudi Arabia, Russia is the second-largest gas & oil supplier for China.
2. India - Right now Russia accounts for 2% of Indian oil import after Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Russia will try to increase its oil and gas export in China & India but we should also don't forget some details:
1. The reason why I underlined Saudi Arabia is that they are one of the largest suppliers in these countries and probably they won't let Russia to easily take over them.
2. China and India probably sees that good relationship with West is better for them and they may see that Russia isn't a country that loves freedom.
3. China may use this as an advantage and milk Russia like a cow, good for China but not for Russia.


Europe & USA have a huge advantage over Russia, this is the education. Where do people go dream to study? In Russia, no! In the USA, UK, Germany, Canada, France, Ireland, Switzerland and other countries? Hell yes! Were top scientists from Russia? Hell no! But from western countries - hell yes.


The fact is the fact - war has one advantage, it always accelerates things up. In this war, we don't need to focus on military equipment but on our weak sides, everyone sees how bad military equipment Russia has compared to the western countries. Don't you think that after all the innovations that come from the USA and Europe, can't we significantly lessen the demand on gas and oil if the situation really requires that from us as soon as possible?

What is this collection of incomprehensible information. Where did you get it from? Oil, gas, weapons all piled up in one heap

[Lucius]

I just read the other day that the EU has increased imports of Russian oil despite the fact that it only strengthens Russia's war machine. Some estimates say that the EU pays about $1 billion a day to Russia for oil and gas, and as things stand, nothing much will change until next winter, and most likely in the coming years. Russia is too big a player in the oil and gas market, and the EU is too dependent on the same oil and gas despite all the empty stories about how it will become independent very soon - maybe they will find huge gas and oil deposits below Berlin or Paris

Trade will continue, regardless of war, political squabbles and false promises of alternatives that do not really exist. Moral responsibility will never be ahead of the political existence that all European politicians are fighting for.

Most notably, the EU buys 2.2 million barrels of oil and 1.2 million barrels of petroleum product from Russia every day (IEA 2022). According to press reports, much of Russia’s hard currency revenue is now being spent on re-equipping the Russian military and preparing for the next offensive.

There is also an unseemly and morally appalling scramble by some European and Asian countries to increase their purchases of Russian oil. According to publicly available data, as shown in Figure 1, some nations that claim to be fully in support of Ukrainians appear to have significantly increased their purchases of Russian oil since the invasion.

[so98nn]

How the fuck is Russia going to replace the European market?
Russia has two options:
1. China - After Saudi Arabia, Russia is the second-largest gas & oil supplier for China.

Before anyone even starts thinking of it, here is an article from the South China Morning Post, the arm of the English language propaganda of the CCP
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3172028/russian-gas-sales-china-will-not-make-loss-european-markets

Short story:

Russia exported 16.5 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas to China in 2021 via pipelines and in the form of liquefied natural gas.
However, Russia is exporting about 170 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas to the European markets every year and the prices for the two buyers are “dramatically different”, according to Mitrova. When the line is in operation by 2026, the annual supply of pipeline natural gas from Russia to China will rise to 48 bcm, nearly five times the 2021 figure.

Russia can only sell 10% of the gas it sells to Europe to China, there are not enough pipelines, and even the ones in construction expected to be finished 4 years from now will only have 1/3 of the capacity.
As for selling gas to India, good luck, there is no such thing even in construction.

As for oil, it doesn't even matter, all that Europe has to do is outbid others, let's see who can afford gas at 3 euros, the EU or Africa or South Asia.

India already received its supply of gas before war from the Russian Gas company named Gazprom. There isn’t requirement of pipelines always as you might be imagining in between Russia-China.

The trade was for LNG that is Liquefied Natural Gas contained in the Barrels. The shipment was already delivered in last October 2021.

Not only that, they also made long 20 years of contract.

Source:
India receives first direct shipment of Russian LNG under long term contract

[bittraffic]

So if 50% of gas from Russia goes to the EU and they are consuming 40% which means if they completely stops gas from Russia either the price of gas will hike upto 40 to 50% or EU countries has to stop the transportation right? Russia may sell their oil to China and India but EU is going to buy from where?

EU will buy from US which US is also buying from Russia according to their news. Seem not logical really. Saudi is producing less deliberately breaching the required OPEC agreement.

Its only math that needs to be observed though. Russia is giving discounted price for countries buying gas and oil to them using rubles. So why would EU countries take that opportunity?  Russian Gas ban is not solving anything realistically. It just clouded the judgement of government officials because of their hate but India and China will keep the economy of Russia going.

[aoluain]

How the fuck is Russia going to replace the European market?
Russia has two options:
1. China - After Saudi Arabia, Russia is the second-largest gas & oil supplier for China.

Before anyone even starts thinking of it, here is an article from the South China Morning Post, the arm of the English language propaganda of the CCP
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3172028/russian-gas-sales-china-will-not-make-loss-european-markets

Short story:

Russia exported 16.5 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas to China in 2021 via pipelines and in the form of liquefied natural gas.
However, Russia is exporting about 170 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas to the European markets every year and the prices for the two buyers are “dramatically different”, according to Mitrova. When the line is in operation by 2026, the annual supply of pipeline natural gas from Russia to China will rise to 48 bcm, nearly five times the 2021 figure.

Russia can only sell 10% of the gas it sells to Europe to China, there are not enough pipelines, and even the ones in construction expected to be finished 4 years from now will only have 1/3 of the capacity.
As for selling gas to India, good luck, there is no such thing even in construction.

As for oil, it doesn't even matter, all that Europe has to do is outbid others, let's see who can afford gas at 3 euros, the EU or Africa or South Asia.

So its all about infrastructure, which can only hold a certain capacity. This probably
goes for Europe also, is the infrastructure with suitable capacity in place to increase
supply from alternative sources?

A Russian gas ban wont be good for either Russia or Europe. Europe has pledged to
wean its self from Russian gas but I suspect it will be a gradual process

[mindrust]

The Russians can live a low profile life because that’s how they lived for years. It wouldn’t bother them that much. The Europeans however have been living in luxury for a long time. If they can’t replace the Russian gas and they probably won’t, it may start civil unrests in the European countries. I don’t see Russia losing anything here tbh.

Maybe they won’t be able to purchase the newest iPhones or European made cars but they won’t die of hunger that’s for sure.

On the other hand, if Germany can’t find an alternative to the Russian gas, the impact on their industry will be devastating. France will probably not get affected that much because they mostly rely on nuclear power.

[Fortify]

Let's keep in mind some important facts from the very beginning:
1. 45% of Russia's federal budget in 2021 came from oil and natural gas revenues
2. 49% of Russia's crude oil and condensate exports went to European OECD nations.
3. Supplies from Russia account for about 40% of the EU's natural gas imports
4. just under three-quarters of all Russian natural gas exports went to European countries in 2021

I hate when everyone talks about how is Europe, especially Germany going to replace the dependence on Russian gas? Wait, 20 centuries have passed without Russian gas and European countries still managed to not only survive but become the most amazing countries with the highest quality of life.


How the fuck is Russia going to replace the European market?
Russia has two options:
1. China - After Saudi Arabia, Russia is the second-largest gas & oil supplier for China.
2. India - Right now Russia accounts for 2% of Indian oil import after Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Russia will try to increase its oil and gas export in China & India but we should also don't forget some details:
1. The reason why I underlined Saudi Arabia is that they are one of the largest suppliers in these countries and probably they won't let Russia to easily take over them.
2. China and India probably sees that good relationship with West is better for them and they may see that Russia isn't a country that loves freedom.
3. China may use this as an advantage and milk Russia like a cow, good for China but not for Russia.


Europe & USA have a huge advantage over Russia, this is the education. Where do people go dream to study? In Russia, no! In the USA, UK, Germany, Canada, France, Ireland, Switzerland and other countries? Hell yes! Were top scientists from Russia? Hell no! But from western countries - hell yes.


The fact is the fact - war has one advantage, it always accelerates things up. In this war, we don't need to focus on military equipment but on our weak sides, everyone sees how bad military equipment Russia has compared to the western countries. Don't you think that after all the innovations that come from the USA and Europe, can't we significantly lessen the demand on gas and oil if the situation really requires that from us as soon as possible?

It works both ways. Russia started this non-nonsensical war and would make far more money from continuing to sell Oil & Gas to Europe in the future than any other potential partners like you suggest. It's nice to pretend that Russia can easily flip a switch to divert supplies to India and China, but it simply isn't true in the short term. A vast majority of Russia's pipelines, probably 90% exist on routes into Europe and it will require years of building new pipelines if they want to send it anywhere else. China has a couple pipelines but they are tiny in comparison, and India can only receive such supplies by sea right now. The faster Europe breaks off Russian oil and gas the better quite frankly, because Putin has shown he is an unstable partner who has plunged the world into another war and who can never be trusted again. It will take time, but ultimately the Russian economy will be the loser, the average Russian will become poorer and Europe will find cleaner energy sources.

[wagmi]

Yes, Europe should do a gas ban from Russia to support Ukraine defending freedom and self-determination as a country.
Ukraine is not Putin's business he don't has any based takes because Ukraine is a different country.
You can't simply start a war against your neighbour country, kill people and do war crimes like Putin does.
Putin needs to be punished very harshly.

I'm from Germany, so I have a good encouragement for support.
Ukraine gets destroyed from Putin and we should not do business for russian gas.
It's a conflict very bad for Europe in Ukraine, it's almost in middle Europe. Lviv (Lemberg) has been a german city once in 1800.

[Findingnemo]

So if 50% of gas from Russia goes to the EU and they are consuming 40% which means if they completely stops gas from Russia either the price of gas will hike upto 40 to 50% or EU countries has to stop the transportation right? Russia may sell their oil to China and India but EU is going to buy from where?

EU will buy from US which US is also buying from Russia according to their news. Seem not logical really. Saudi is producing less deliberately breaching the required OPEC agreement.

Its only math that needs to be observed though. Russia is giving discounted price for countries buying gas and oil to them using rubles. So why would EU countries take that opportunity?  Russian Gas ban is not solving anything realistically. It just clouded the judgement of government officials because of their hate but India and China will keep the economy of Russia going.

Discounted price for the friendly countries basically the countries which supported or being neutral towards Russia's decision and also they can pay in their own fist itself but EU has to pay in ruble and also higher price than what China js actually paying for them which itself shows that who is in commanding position.

[DrBeer]

...

Firstly, thanks to the author for the good, transparent, understandable information on the actual problem!
Secondly, I will add a little
- China and India. Russia is trying to pass them off as "friends of Russia", although this is not true, this is an attempt to create the appearance of support. In reality, both India and China are very tough "partners". And if they see that Russia now simply has nowhere to go with its gas and oil, then of course they will help! But in a very peculiar way - they will buy oil and gas, but at the price they want, and on the conditions that they will deliver to Russia, but not vice versa! India and China put conditions on Russia, and only for their own benefit, and with special cynicism they underestimate the price! So for Russia this is a decision from the field - "breathe before death"

- EU and hydrocarbon supplies. Russia's participation in the EU market is 40% of the gas share. Those. Already, 60% of gas from other suppliers is supplied to the EU through other channels. Those. already 1.5 times more supplied by other suppliers. At the same time, not a single supplier will refuse to take or replace the Russian share, in such a STABLE, well-PAID market, with good constant DEMAND. And this means - as soon as Russia "stumbles" or is forced to retreat, others will immediately take its place. No, I understand that infrastructure issues, technological and others. In 3-5 years, new pipelines, terminals for liquefied gas, etc. will be built. And while Russia will struggle with internal problems and will be increasingly isolated from the outside world, there will be a quiet replacement. And in 10-15 years, no one will remember such a supplier....

[Rikafip]

Trade will continue, regardless of war, political squabbles and false promises of alternatives that do not really exist.

Just business as usual, seen many times before. American companies were selling oil to Germany during WW2, our generals were making fortune by selling oil to Serbs during our war etc.

The Russians can live a low profile life because that’s how they lived for years. It wouldn’t bother them that much. The Europeans however have been living in luxury for a long time. If they can’t replace the Russian gas and they probably won’t, it may start civil unrests in the European countries. I don’t see Russia losing anything here tbh.

I was just about to write something like this when I saw your reply, and that's the thing that many in Western Europe don't understand, that Russian people are way more used to hardships than an average person in the west. Sure, those oligarchs will suffer but they can't overthrown Putin. That's why I think that all these sanctions won't do absolutely anything to persuade Putin to stop the war in Ukraine as we are not talking about some country where you have free elections so you can easily remove the government when you think that they are not doing the good job but essentially dictatorship where you go to prison if you say a bad thing about the war/president.

[Ozero]

Trade will continue, regardless of war, political squabbles and false promises of alternatives that do not really exist.

Just business as usual, seen many times before. American companies were selling oil to Germany during WW2, our generals were making fortune by selling oil to Serbs during our war etc.

The Russians can live a low profile life because that’s how they lived for years. It wouldn’t bother them that much. The Europeans however have been living in luxury for a long time. If they can’t replace the Russian gas and they probably won’t, it may start civil unrests in the European countries. I don’t see Russia losing anything here tbh.

I was just about to write something like this when I saw your reply, and that's the thing that many in Western Europe don't understand, that Russian people are way more used to hardships than an average person in the west. Sure, those oligarchs will suffer but they can't overthrown Putin. That's why I think that all these sanctions won't do absolutely anything to persuade Putin to stop the war in Ukraine as we are not talking about some country where you have free elections so you can easily remove the government when you think that they are not doing the good job but essentially dictatorship where you go to prison if you say a bad thing about the war/president.

Well, if the people of Russia like to live in poverty, it was still weak poverty. The main difficulties are ahead of them and they can no longer be avoided. Putin lives his own life and he almost doesn't give a damn about the population of Russia. Judging by the recent decisions he has made regarding Ukraine, he is not all right mentally. The Russians will suffer greatly from this in the next few decades.

 As for the effectiveness of the sanctions, it will need to be looked at at least by the end of this year. By then, everything will be revealed. Including the consequences for Russia of the war of conquest in Ukraine.

Don't worry about Europe. There will be some time limits. But this is nothing compared to what awaits Russia in the near future. If Russia still remains as such ...

[laredo7mm]

European countries still managed to not only survive but become the most amazing countries with the highest quality of life.

Yes, they managed the highest quality of life by sucking other country's wealth not by farming and selling oil and gas. In the colonial age, European countries steal an enormous amount of wealth from Asia and Africa, and many countries still facing that's consequences.

The Russians can live a low profile life because that’s how they lived for years. It wouldn’t bother them that much. The Europeans however have been living in luxury for a long time. If they can’t replace the Russian gas and they probably won’t, it may start civil unrests in the European countries. I don’t see Russia losing anything here tbh.

Maybe they won’t be able to purchase the newest iPhones or European made cars but they won’t die of hunger that’s for sure.

On the other hand, if Germany can’t find an alternative to the Russian gas, the impact on their industry will be devastating. France will probably not get affected that much because they mostly rely on nuclear power.

Russia was devastated by the Mongols, Napoleon, Hitler, and many more. This country has been raised from ashes many times so it's clear they have a strong mindset of people. Russia's economy was already in bad shape pre-Ukraine war so I think they don't have anything to lose here. Also for a product below market price always have a buyer. If European doesn't want to buy Russian oil and gas other countries will at a discount rate.