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Author Topic: Luck and the market trend.  (Read 129 times)
Markinzo (OP)
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April 29, 2022, 05:44:54 PM
 #1

Market trend as we do know is basically about the comprehensive movement in direction to which the price of an asset in a market is heading.

Now, when it comes to a market does the concept of hindsight bias work on the market based on determined absolutism? Even as the price most times does not always move in direction of the trend.

Cause certain persons feel persuaded within themselves that they could make an exact predictions towards about the outcome of a market before it takes place.

Perhaps, based on certain instruments, data's of analysis within their reach.

The discussion here is this. What's the clarity or visibility of this concept on a scale of 1-10 ? looking at how dip, fluctuating and complex the market is which makes it very difficult to have a precision of the market these days.

Or could it be that such person(s) just run into constant luck at most, in addition to data's within their reach
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April 29, 2022, 10:05:50 PM
Merited by KingsDen (2), Rruchi man (1)
 #2

Are you sure this is the right board for this discussion, talking about the market, analysis and making predictions on price change or trends, you might want to move the thread to trading discussion or something.

Mean while, there is no way any one no matter how professional you might be can be accurate on predicting the trend or direction of the market and always get it right. Trading has got nothing to do with luck and foresight. Foresight gives me the impression of a trader who doesn't do nothing but just jumps on a trade where ever he or she met it and hope for the best.

With trading having nothing to do with luck, you might either loose or make some wins. All the instruments and sentiments are right there before you've just got to know how to apply them but still, the market could disregard all signs and follow a direct path.

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April 29, 2022, 10:12:00 PM
 #3

You can analyse trends, but that's only comparing to what trends were like before it, so its not exactly fool proof, and not exactly reliable. So, while predictions can be made, there's still a little bit of luck involved, and some risk. I think most people would coin it as "calculated risk". Investors on the stock market have shown that they can somewhat accurately predict within a certain margin of what's going to happen, and Bitcoin isn't massively different.

There will be trends, and there will be margins to predict in. However, Bitcoin is a little different to traditional investment stocks, since it's a new currency, and not only a new currency, but a cryptocurrency which doesn't exactly have much history to base predictions on.

Personally, I don't listen to what other people have to say via predictions. I look at Bitcoin, take a look at what it provides differently to our current money system, e.g freedom to be in control of your own money, and not having to rely on a third party for that, and then base my optimism on that. Its genuinely checked out so far.

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April 29, 2022, 11:50:56 PM
 #4

In cryptocurrency trading, people do not care about accurate prediction of the price, for example, there is no difference between 43k and 40k, although 3 thousand dollars may mean a lot, but there is a difference between 43 thousand and 45 thousand.
What I'm trying to say is that they look for support and resistance points to determine price trends.

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April 30, 2022, 03:13:27 AM
 #5

The point is that what we call "trends" doesn't exist, they are patterns that we make for ourselves to better understand reality..

I am always amazed how trend analysis is often abstracted from what can happen in the real world. If a war starts, or there is a ban on miners in China, or a simple statement from the Fed chairman, they set the direction of the market much more than predicting how a line is going to follow based on how those lines have behaved so far.

Although I know that there are people who use pattern analysis and make money with it, statistically they are very few.

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April 30, 2022, 04:07:44 AM
 #6

I think this thread is in the wrong board, because things like this which has do with trading should be channel to "trading & discussion" where you stand the chance to be given first class information from top experience traders on the forum.
But all that been said,...
Trading, actually in cryptocurrency is very lucrative and at the same time risky, since the market is very volatile which can successfully make a man a millionaire within minutes and at the same time, turn a millionaire into losing all his investment still within that few minutes. So it is a two-way thing, but however, with the right information, knowledge and most importantly the right tools, you can safely manage the risk and still make the best out of the market with some good profits. Because there are specific tools built to help a trader to analyze the market in making the right choice just as "tradingview", "coinmarketcap" and many others that provide available data for a trader.

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April 30, 2022, 04:58:04 AM
 #7

Maybe 70% luck and 30% technical patterns. No one could ever predict more than a high accuracy using all the data. Sometime fundamental affect the supposedly movement of such coin or token based on technical parameters and we see this already happened multiple times. Foe example, dogecoin have been seen down trend on technical and suddenly an Elon musk news came in and boom it changes it destiny to go down instead a short pump incoming happened and technical path will reset again to a new one which could be bearish or bullish.

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April 30, 2022, 05:22:34 AM
 #8

Not really sure what you are trying to drive up, but crypto trading is not the same as gambling though wherein you have the element of luck to win.

You really need to understand and analyze how the market works so that you can predict ahead what will be the next movement. And you technical analysis enters the picture, yes, it's not a perfect and exact but at least there is tools that can help you in your trading.

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April 30, 2022, 09:03:31 AM
 #9

Or could it be that such person(s) just run into constant luck at most, in addition to data's within their reach
Sometimes it is this.
The market is seriously unpredictable even with backed data within their hands, we'll never know what's the next crypto to be pumped by the whales.
And having that said, if you're lucky enough to have that token being on your position before the pump then that concludes you to be lucky. But if you've based that with evidence and proof that it's going to pump later on, you're the man then.

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April 30, 2022, 09:09:45 AM
 #10

The discussion here is this. What's the clarity or visibility of this concept on a scale of 1-10 ? looking at how dip, fluctuating and complex the market is which makes it very difficult to have a precision of the market these days.

Or could it be that such person(s) just run into constant luck at most, in addition to data's within their reach

Maybe you could rephrase your question because I wasn't sure where you were going with it.

I think no one can accurately predict market movements all the time, so we've seen stocks rise and fall and we've seen different asset classes outperform or underperform at different times. So it's very hard to predict any of that. And I think in a lot of ways the more we get into a liquidity or quantitative environment, the more difficult that is because you do have a lot of factors that you can't control. Sure, some traders make a lot of money when you have the right position, but you also lose a lot of money when you are wrong.

That's the irony of this whole thing, there is no way to, I think, be successful as a trader all the time, because there are so many factors that we don't really control. But that being said, we are still learning and finding out what works and what doesn't and I think one of the big drivers of how volatile this market is right now is because so many traders are trying to time the market.
 

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April 30, 2022, 02:03:36 PM
 #11

The Bitcoin market is generally unpredictable. So whenever a prediction based on a technical analysis turned out right, there must be a certain amount of luck involved. Of course, this is not how many traders look at it. There's a respected trader in my country who believes that everything could be seen on the charts. Personally, though, I think the chart would help you make sense of the current price but does not really tell you much about the future price, although, of course, it somehow guides you. At the very least, charting would give basis to your orders, that your calls are not simply blind guesses.

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May 07, 2022, 10:36:53 PM
 #12

One chance of a luck can change someone's life for good ,Luck goes really well with having full knowledge of the market, it makes the luck easier ,while lack of market knowledge ,The chances of luck is slim .
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May 07, 2022, 11:01:53 PM
 #13

Market trend as we do know is basically about the comprehensive movement in direction to which the price of an asset in a market is heading.

Now, when it comes to a market does the concept of hindsight bias work on the market based on determined absolutism? Even as the price most times does not always move in direction of the trend.

Cause certain persons feel persuaded within themselves that they could make an exact predictions towards about the outcome of a market before it takes place.

Perhaps, based on certain instruments, data's of analysis within their reach.

The discussion here is this. What's the clarity or visibility of this concept on a scale of 1-10 ? looking at how dip, fluctuating and complex the market is which makes it very difficult to have a precision of the market these days.

Or could it be that such person(s) just run into constant luck at most, in addition to data's within their reach
Although luck does play a big role in trading (arguably), but doing your own research with some technical analysis thrown in there for good measure can sometimes gives you somewhat accurate prediction about the direction of the market anf therefore turn your portfolio green.
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May 07, 2022, 11:25:43 PM
 #14

Market trend as we do know is basically about the comprehensive movement in direction to which the price of an asset in a market is heading.

Now, when it comes to a market does the concept of hindsight bias work on the market based on determined absolutism?
Yes, but it depends on the next decision after the hindsight happened and this is the reason why it's important to always go for crypto that has the community support.

Even as the price most times does not always move in direction of the trend.
It's not possible for the market not to move in the direction of its trend because they both work together but if you're talking about analysis. they are just an act of guessing the market's next trend.

Cause certain persons feel persuaded within themselves that they could make an exact predictions towards about the outcome of a market before it takes place.
When it comes to crypto market prediction there's no expert somewhere because prediction will never guarantee good results until hindsight. but it is nice to understand the crypto market and the coin you choose to invest in.

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May 07, 2022, 11:40:19 PM
 #15

The price goes down by a lot when someone decides to sell, and similarly it goes up when someone decides to buy. No amount of line drawing will tell you when exactly that will happen. Plus there's a factor of fundamentals - the market reacts to various events in the world, and you rarely can predict them. This is why short-term trading is indeed close to gambling. And this is why long-term investing is safer and more profitable.

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May 08, 2022, 01:33:21 AM
 #16

Maybe 70% luck and 30% technical patterns. No one could ever predict more than a high accuracy using all the data. Sometime fundamental affect the supposedly movement of such coin or token based on technical parameters and we see this already happened multiple times. Foe example, dogecoin have been seen down trend on technical and suddenly an Elon musk news came in and boom it changes it destiny to go down instead a short pump incoming happened and technical path will reset again to a new one which could be bearish or bullish.


 Grin Grin yes i do aggree with this even you have robot trading with AI trained no one can 100% predict maybe the have accuracy 80-90% especially crypto is very volatile the market open 24/7 and we can took example of doge too when mr elon says doge and boom 1 long green candle showed up

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