Bitcoin 2018 vs 2022

[ImThour]

EDIT: Idea got well executed. Price reached $20,830.   

Bitcoin 2018 vs 2022:

In this chart, you can clearly see how Bitcoin fell almost 40% on every sell signal on MACD.

As you can see on the left, 2018 had 3 signals from ATH, 2 Sells and 1 Buy.
Something similar has happened now with Bitcoin: 3 Signals, 2 Sells and 1 Buy.

I am expecting another 40% drop in the price and will call that bottom of the cycle.
Let's see how it executes in upcoming weeks.

[BitcoinHodler]

I am expecting another 40% drop in the price and will call that bottom of the cycle.

last year people drew charts comparing bitcoin in 2017 with bitcoin in 2021 and expected price to reach all kinds of high prices all above $100k.
it didn't happen.

what i'm trying to say is that history does not repeat. and these two charts don't really have that much in common either.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I think firstly, we all need to concede that we are in a bear market now. Anybody still hanging on to the hope we hit $100,000 or more THIS year is a deluded moon boi. We will hit $100,000 & much higher, just not this year. As somebody who’s been through multiple bull & bear markets, what we are seeing now is expected. I think you’re right OP,  we will go lower. My prediction is something like $25,000 as the absolute bottom of this cycle. $69,420 was the top, which was not a blow off top. We can predict something like $25,000 as a bottom then as no blow off top = presumably no 80% crash from $69,420.

Happy dip buying

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

I think firstly, we all need to concede that we are in a bear market now. Anybody still hanging on to the hope we hit $100,000 or more THIS year is a deluded moon boi. We will hit $100,000 & much higher, just not this year. As somebody who’s been through multiple bull & bear markets, what we are seeing now is expected. I think you’re right OP,  we will go lower. My prediction is something like $25,000 as the absolute bottom of this cycle. $69,420 was the top, which was not a blow off top. We can predict something like $25,000 as a bottom then as no blow off top = presumably no 80% crash from $69,420.

Happy dip buying

Yeah, me as well or at least a couple of months ago thinks that we are in a bear market already. I don't want to argue with others who think that we can bounce back to $40k-$50k before the end of the year because for me it's not going to happen.

So it's better to preach buying the dip right now, maybe we can see $25k or even our previous ath of $20k in 2017 that could be the absolute bottom for me.

[Nivia1st]

if you look at it, it's like 2018 but I think it's more accurate like last year's chart. last year in the same month the price fell to 30,000 due to news about the ban on mining in china. and right now the crypto market is crashing because of the FED and war news. crashes occur because of bad news, and after the impact of the news wears off, prices start to rise again. I think this year will also be the same, if the impact of all the negative news subsides the price will rise again.

[Kemarit]

if you look at it, it's like 2018 but I think it's more accurate like last year's chart. last year in the same month the price fell to 30,000 due to news about the ban on mining in china. and right now the crypto market is crashing because of the FED and war news. crashes occur because of bad news, and after the impact of the news wears off, prices start to rise again. I think this year will also be the same, if the impact of all the negative news subsides the price will rise again.

But you have to realized that there is a pattern between the two, of course it could rise again, but the question is when since we are in a bear market already.

And I do agree that the FED rate hike and the war news have a huge impact in the price and this could have a long term effect specially if the war continues late this year. So it's going to be very difficult for the price to have a good bounce this 2022.

[BitcoinHodler]

But you have to realized that there is a pattern between the two, of course it could rise again, but the question is when since we are in a bear market already.

it has never been possible to predict when a downtrend is going to stop.

[ImThour]

what i'm trying to say is that history does not repeat. and these two charts don't really have that much in common either.

You surely need to go through my charts here at https://www.tradingview.com/u/ImThour/ to see if 2018 and 2022 are common or not. I bet, it is.
I am not interested to post details here or prove it.

[BitcoinHodler]

to see if 2018 and 2022 are common or not. I bet, it is.

i don't think you read my post so i say again: 2017 and 2021 were also looking identical at the time yet the peak didn't form.

price is falling, and it may fall a lot more but it will not be because of repetition of some pattern. it is all about the current ongoing crisis in the world in energy and food that gets worse every day. as long as that crisis is ongoing and people are panic selling, we continue seeing a bear market and as soon as the crisis ends or panic sell stops things will reverse.

we had the same in 2020 when a virus crisis started and people started panic selling and it only ended as soon as the panic sell ended before the crisis even began to end!

[cabron]

40% dip which $25K may not be the very bottom of it scares the moon bois for sure. I'm wondering what other indicators have OP been using that provides same signal besides the MACD?

It took a year from $20K in 2018 to dip to its bottom in 2019 on $3k. This month of May is also a year since its $62K peak. I'm just thinking maybe the cycle will change this time as it hasn't break that $30K support. That may be the signal to wait before turning the coins to stablecoin.

[stomachgrowls]

40% dip which $25K may not be the very bottom of it scares the moon bois for sure. I'm wondering what other indicators have OP been using that provides same signal besides the MACD?

It took a year from $20K in 2018 to dip to its bottom in 2019 on $3k. This month of May is also a year since its $62K peak. I'm just thinking maybe the cycle will change this time as it hasn't break that $30K support. That may be the signal to wait before turning the coins to stablecoin.

Questions would really boggled up our mind considering that we could really make out some patterns basing on previous high and lows but it's true that the price is really still tanking in 30k+ price but still not an assured thing since everything could really make out some breakout of support which is something  very plausible on this market.

Whether these indicators could really be that precise or not(always) then let's just be prepared and make ourselves ready on getting in on that possible bottom or you do make yourself ready to catch on.

[uneng]

The 2022 market is much more mature than it was in 2018. Right now there are more investors (especially institutional ones), more traders, more merchants, more social promoters, more gamblers... All these factors contribute for raising the support level of bitcoin, so we can expect smoother and smoother corrections along the time. 40% looks too much considering those currently market conditions.

So far bitcoin has dropped about 14% since the last stable price in the 39,000$'s range. Next days must be decisive.

However, things can get really bad for bitcoin once US Federal Reserve increases interest rates again (it's expected). On that case I believe a sharp correction could happen leading bitcoin to the mentioned 40% decline in price, although it's a real chaotic possibility, worst of the cases.

[hatshepsut93]

40% drop right now would put Bitcoin at $20,000. That's the top of the previous cycle. Bitcoin never fell to the price level of the top of the previous cycle. Of course there's a first time for everything, but purely from the long-term trend, it is unlikely. The bottom of this cycle should be much higher than $20,000 - somewhere at $27-29,000. Maybe it will briefly touch $25,000 if there's some foreseen event that could cause such panic.

[serjent05]

I am expecting another 40% drop in the price and will call that bottom of the cycle.

last year people drew charts comparing bitcoin in 2017 with bitcoin in 2021 and expected price to reach all kinds of high prices all above $100k.
it didn't happen.

Predictions and TA is always shamed by the BTC market.

what i'm trying to say is that history does not repeat. and these two charts don't really have that much in common either.

The cycle repeats itself but of course in a different pattern.  Whether history repeats or not depends on the subject being presented.  , In the case of Bitcoin market cycle history it does repeat several times now.

40% drop right now would put Bitcoin at $20,000.

Would be a great Bitcoin sale price of the year if that happens

That's the top of the previous cycle. Bitcoin never fell to the price level of the top of the previous cycle. Of course there's a first time for everything, but purely from the long-term trend, it is unlikely. The bottom of this cycle should be much higher than $20,000 - somewhere at $27-29,000. Maybe it will briefly touch $25,000 if there's some foreseen event that could cause such panic.

It is too early to tell where the bottom of this bear market is since the Bitcoin price is greatly affected by the upcoming events and prediction is easily nullified if there is a piece of strong news or events that can have a great impact on the Bitcoin demand.

Whether these indicators could really be that precise or not(always) then let's just be prepared and make ourselves ready on getting in on that possible bottom or you do make yourself ready to catch on.

Best to accumulate Bitcoin  when many holders is panic selling.

[STT]

it has never been possible to predict when a downtrend is going to stop.

Its not possible in an absolute way but you can determine when there is a strong trend and when volume is lacking for example.   If we repeatedly attempt but fail to pass a point it can be surmised as a reason to consider we might be encountering a point where the market might turn.   The 2018 low came year end into a time of holidays and possibly reduced volume in that time, price can go anywhere but the quality of trading action varies.   Right now price is near to the year low, it cant be said to be everything but its worth noting how we react to the recent low prices.

[Scripture]

But you have to realized that there is a pattern between the two, of course it could rise again, but the question is when since we are in a bear market already.

it has never been possible to predict when a downtrend is going to stop.

Though looking at the comparison, there's a higher chance that 2022 will form the same chart trend and that could be the best sign to know the bottom but of course its not guaranteed and hundred percent sure. I just confirmed that the history will repeat itself because of this chart, I'll stay put for now while waiting for the bottom price, the market will rise again for sure and for you to enjoy that better to buy during bear market.

[adaseb]

There were a lot of indicator that pointed bearish that year, it wasn’t only the MACD. What was brutal about 2018 is that most people were bullish. Many were expecting November 2018 to be the month where crypto will take off since it was usually a bullish month and the complete opposite happened.

Right now I don’t think anyone is bullish at $33K, so most likely it won’t break like everybody expects. However i the real battle will be when we get to the $28k area in a few months. If that breaks most likely the previous ATH will get tested.

[Fundamentals Of]

I am expecting another 40% drop in the price and will call that bottom of the cycle.
Let's see how it executes in upcoming weeks.

40%? Is that expectation more likely to happen? Or is it simply because small portions of the chart are suggesting so? If Bitcoin is expected to lose 40% more of the price right, the price would still nosedive until lower than $20,000. To me, that's too low and this current bear market might not really pull us back to that price level. Or I hope so. But things are not looking good right now. Supports are broken as if they're the softest of all. So anything could happen. Let's see.

[Biodom]

Sorry, all of the predictions above may happen, indeed, which then would makes bitcoin just an oscillator (if at or below 20K happens).
It would violate ALL prior history, and would make this asset a stochastic one (random walk), diminishing it's future to a large degree.
I would dare to say that IF below 20K happens, then above 100K would NEVER happen.
The world would just move on to new things.

So, ladies and gents...buy..buy buy somewhere between 20K and current 33.7K or say bye-bye to it as an investment.
jmho

[Paul Pogba]

If we compare bitcoin 2018 and 2022 we see almost the same trend, namely the price drops significantly after reaching ATH, of course there is still a lot of time to see if 2022 will repeat 2018, but I hope it doesn't happen again.