HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 16th June 2026.

Trump announced that the US and Iran will sign a peace agreement on Friday.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

A major week for central banks and the global currency markets is underway as five central banks release their interest rate decisions. These include the Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Federal Reserve, Swiss National Bank, and Bank of England. So far, the Bank of Japan and Reserve Bank of Australia have made their interest rate decisions public, but the most influential decision will come from the Federal Reserve.

The best-performing currencies of the past week have been the Australian Dollar and Swiss Franc. The Australian Dollar has been the best performing currency of 2026 so far, but the performance of multiple currencies will depend largely on the Federal Reserve and the US Dollar.

Japanese Yen - BOJ Hike Takes Rates to a 31-Year High

The Bank of Japan adjusted its policy rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, the highest since 1995. However, the Japanese Yen’s first reaction was to slightly decline, and any gains since have been minimal. As interest rate hikes are known to support the currency, why has the Japanese Yen not seen significant gains?


HFM - USDJPY 30-Minute Chart

The interest rate hike was widely expected and fully priced into the market. As a result, there was little need for further buying after the bank adjusted rates. In addition, the US Dollar was the best-performing currency during this morning’s Asian session and yesterday’s US session. Investors still expect Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh to maintain a hawkish stance. Bond yields also remain 20% above their 12-month average.

For the Japanese Yen to gain momentum, the BOJ will need to give a strong indication of more rate hikes. So far, most analysts believe the Bank of Japan may hike on one more occasion this year. However, even with a further hike, the Yen may need a more neutral Fed in order to maintain momentum in its favour.

Harumi Taguchi, principal economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said ‘I believe the BOJ stance remains unchanged in that it will continue to implement gradual rate hikes roughly every six months. Another rate hike within the year is also possible.’

In terms of technical analysis, the price is at a neutral level, with the currency pair trading at the 200-bar moving average on the 5-minute chart. In addition to this, the price is trading in the middle of the day’s high and low. For a sell signal to materialise, traders will be looking for the price to fall below 160.140. At this level, the price will form a crossover, move away from the 200-bar SMA, and regain 65% of the previous bullish wave. For this reason, sell signals can strengthen at this point for the USD/JPY.

Australian Dollar - The RBA Keeps Rates Unchanged

The Australian Dollar is declining against all currencies as the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged and agreed that unemployment is higher than expected. Some comments from the RBA governor were deemed hawkish, but investors focused on certain comments on the economy. Indeed, economic and employment data in recent weeks have deteriorated. However, the governor was also clear that she believes inflation will remain high.

According to the RBA, there are signs that consumer spending growth is slowing as expected, while housing market momentum has weakened, with prices falling in some capital cities. The unemployment rate rose more than expected in April, although other labour market indicators remain relatively resilient.

Similar to the Japanese Yen, the performance of the AUD will also depend largely on the US Dollar. However, the AUD remains the best-performing currency of the year, even ahead of the US Dollar. Therefore, investors should be cautious of quick bullish impulse waves in favour of the AUD.


HFM - AUDUSD 30-Minute Chart

Federal Reserve - US Dollar Hold Onto Gains

Despite facing fundamental pressure from the US-Iran peace deal and lower oil prices, the US Dollar Index proved resilient. After recovering the losses caused by the negative price gap, the currency continued to strengthen and moved even higher.

The market is not expecting any adjustments to interest rates tomorrow, but is treating Kevin Warsh with caution. Despite the changes in market conditions, bond yields remain high, and markets continue to price in at least one interest rate hike this year. For this reason, the US Dollar holds onto its gains, but the easing tensions in the Middle East can pressure the safe-haven currency.

Markets will expect major volatility during the press conference of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh. Of particular interest to investors is whether he believes rates will rise in the coming months.

Key Takeaway:

* The Federal Reserve remains the main market focus. While several central banks are announcing rate decisions, investors are primarily watching the new Fed Chair for guidance on future rate hikes.
* The Bank of Japan raised rates to their highest level since 1995. However, the Yen saw limited gains as the move was already priced in and a strong Dollar offset the impact.
* The Australian Dollar remains the year’s strongest currency despite RBA caution. The RBA kept rates unchanged and highlighted softer economic conditions, but persistent inflation continues to support the currency.
* US Dollar strength continues despite easing geopolitical risks. High bond yields and expectations of at least one Fed rate hike this year are helping the Dollar hold onto its gains. However, tomorrow’s Federal Reserve press conference will be key for this.\

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 17th June 2026.

New Fed Chairman in Focus: Stocks Decline and Gold Loses Momentum.


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A The NASDAQ saw a significant decline on Tuesday, largely due to profit-taking from stocks that had seen significant increases in the previous days. All global indices fell on Tuesday as investors took a cautious approach to the new Federal Reserve chairman. However, the NASDAQ came under significantly higher pressure.

Furthermore, the US Dollar is declining largely due to the lower demand for safe-haven assets and lower oil prices. Crude oil has now fallen to $75 per barrel, the lowest since 5 March. Gold has also lost momentum despite the price of the Dollar retracing lower. The main price drivers for the US Dollar and Gold will be tonight’s press conference from the Federal Reserve.

The NASDAQ Comes Under Profit-Taking Pressure

Analysts note that the stocks that drove the NASDAQ lower on Tuesday were primarily NVIDIA, Broadcom, Micron Technology, and Intel. These are stocks that had seen significant gains in the previous days. For this reason, investors believe the decline is also due to profit-taking after quick significant quick gains.

In addition to this, investors are also taking a cautious approach to the Federal Reserve’s press conference. The US Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision tonight at 18:00 GMT. Kevin Warsh will chair the meeting and hold his first press conference as chairman.


HFM - NASDAQ 30-Minute Chart

Markets widely expect interest rates to remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Investors will instead focus on the press conference and updated economic projections for clues on the future policy path. Kevin Warsh does not favour forward guidance, which sets him apart from his predecessor. Some analysts believe that, despite his hawkish policy stance, a reduced emphasis on forward guidance could benefit the stock market.

Previously, Mr Warsh has told the market he is looking to reform the Fed. Investors will be interested to hear what this means for Fed policy. If the Fed opts to stop its QE programme, the stock market could come under pressure, particularly as the Dollar increases again.

The NASDAQ remains in an overall uptrend, but the next major move is likely to depend on the Federal Reserve meeting. A hawkish tone from Kevin Warsh could pressure growth stocks and extend the current pullback. A neutral or dovish tone could help the index retest its recent highs. However, in terms of technical analysis, the NASDAQ is regaining bullish momentum and obtaining further buy signals as the price corrects.

Gold Does Not Maintain Bullish Momentum

Gold has traded mostly sideways over the past 24 hours, holding near a one-week high around the $4,330-$4,370 area. Momentum remains cautiously positive after Monday’s rebound, but the recovery is not fully confirmed while prices stay below the key 200-day moving average, which is acting as resistance near $4,446.

A key concern for technical analysts is that Gold has not been able to maintain bullish momentum while the US Dollar has continued to decline. This can be seen as a key signal that Gold may again decline or remain within a new price range between $4,000 and $4,350.

The short-term bias remains neutral-to-slightly bullish as long as gold holds above the recent support zone around $4,300–$4,320. A break above $4,446 could strengthen the bullish outlook, while a move back below $4,300 may signal renewed selling pressure. A hawkish Fed can pressure Gold, in a very similar way to the stock market.


HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart

Key Takeaway:

* The NASDAQ fell as investors took profits in semiconductor stocks following strong gains earlier in the week.
* Investors await Kevin Warsh’s first Fed press conference for clues on future monetary policy and reforms.
* The US Dollar weakened as oil prices fell and demand for safe-haven assets eased.
* Gold struggled to maintain momentum despite a weaker Dollar, raising concerns over further upside potential.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 18th June 2026.

US Dollar Surges as Fed Chair Warsh Signals Higher Rates and Tough Inflation Stance.


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A relatively hawkish Federal Reserve chairman saw the US Dollar Index witness new bullish momentum. The US Dollar Index rose more than 1% and is now pressuring the key resistance level at 100.40. If this level is broken, the currency will trade at its highest in more than 12 months.

The new Federal Reserve chairman’s press conference is the reason for yesterday’s volatility. During Kevin Warsh’s press conference, the stock market was quick to decline, as were Gold and oil. The main winner from the press conference is the US Dollar, which continues to be the best-performing currency of the day.

Kevin Warsh Press Conference

Analysts were unsure what to expect from Kevin Warsh, as it is well-known that he does not support guidance nor give too much information to journalists. However, the new Chairman did not shy away from affirming how he believes the Federal Reserve should work. It is clear from the market’s reaction and comments from analysts that this was significantly more hawkish than previous expectations.

Chairman Warsh strongly emphasised the Fed’s commitment to returning inflation to the 2% target. Analysts were clear to pick up on that the chairman’s statements were definite and did not leave room for a slow progress towards the target or any leeway. In addition to this, during the press conference, the chairman made no reference to supporting the economy. Nor did Mr Warsh reassure economists that he will ensure employment remains stable while bringing inflation down.

Many are now questioning whether the Fed now has one target, inflation, and not employment. This is unlikely, however, many agree that the Fed will be willing for employment to take a slight hit while bringing inflation down to the 2% target. For this reason, the market views the comments as particularly hawkish.

After this meeting, markets shifted toward pricing a much higher probability of rates staying elevated or even rising further. There is now a high probability of rate hikes in 2026, with the Chicago exchange predicting a 32% chance of a rate hike in July. This is significantly higher than the 8% possibility from before the press conference. In addition to this, there is a 33% chance of two interest rate hikes in 2026, up from 14%.

The Chairman was very clear in stating that the FOMC all agreed that the Fed will not provide forward guidance or submit dots. For this reason, investors can expect more volatility during the Fed’s rate decisions compared to the past 10 years.

Lastly, Kevin Warsh reiterated his concerns about the Federal Reserve’s large bond holdings. He also confirmed that the central bank's balance sheet will be reviewed as part of its broader reform efforts. While no immediate policy changes were announced, the review could influence how the Fed manages its assets in the future. Analysts expect this to support the Dollar by limiting supply.

USDCAD - Oil Pressures the CAD as the US Dollar Gains Momentum

USD/CAD remains within a strong bullish trend, supported by a stronger US Dollar. The US Dollar is the best-performing currency of the day. The Canadian Dollar is the worst-performing and is particularly coming under pressure from the lower oil prices.

The pair continues to trade above its key moving averages and is holding comfortably above the psychological 1.4000 level. Momentum indicators remain positive, although recent gains suggest the pair may be approaching overbought territory in the short term. As long as price remains above 1.4000, buyers are likely to retain control of the trend.

From a technical perspective, a break above the recent high near 1.4080 could open the door for a move towards 1.4125, with a further bullish target at 1.4160. However, if the pair struggles to sustain gains, a correction towards 1.4000 and 1.3900 cannot be ruled out.


HFM - USDCAD 30-Minutes

Gold - Technical Analysts See New 2026 Low In Sight

Gold remains under pressure as higher US Treasury yields and expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve reduce demand for non-yielding assets. All metals are declining, which further supports Gold weakness. The metal continues to trade below key resistance levels, with momentum indicators favouring sellers in the short term.

As long as Gold remains below $4,340, the near-term bias is likely to remain bearish. Some technical analysts also advise that Gold has the potential to decline to the psychological price of $4,000, which would take us to an eight-month low.


HFM - USDCAD 30-Minutes

Key Takeaway:

* Warsh reinforced the Fed’s commitment to 2% inflation, delivering a more hawkish message than markets expected.
* Rate hike expectations jumped sharply, with July hike odds rising from 8% to 32%.
* The US Dollar surged, while stocks, Gold, and oil declined following the press conference.
* The Fed will end forward guidance, likely increasing volatility around future policy decisions.
* USD/CAD remains bullish above 1.4000, while Gold risks falling towards the $4,000 level.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 19th June 2026.

US Dollar Surges as Hawkish Fed Outlook Pressures Gold and Stocks.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The US Dollar continues to increase in value for a third consecutive day, breaking above key resistance levels. The US Dollar Index has now risen 1.68% this week so far, while other currencies have come under pressure from poor economic data.

The market continues to price in a more hawkish Federal Reserve, including the possibility of a rate adjustment either in July, or at the latest, September. The chances of the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates twice in 2026 are now 70%, significantly higher than previously. Analysts are indicating that Wednesday’s Fed press conference is likely to have a longer-term impact on the market. This includes the US stock market, as well as the US Dollar and Gold.

Gold & Global Metals Decline As Dollar Maintains Bullish Momentum

Gold is decreasing in value for two key reasons. With global tensions easing, investors see a lesser need for safe-haven assets, including Gold. Other safe haven assets such as the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen have also come under strain. In addition to this, the US Dollar is becoming more attractive as a yielding asset, which is likely to see higher interest being paid in the upcoming months.

The Federal Reserve’s outlook became more hawkish, with the median forecast for interest rates at the end of the year rising from 3.4% to 3.8%. Half of the Fed’s Board members (nine out of 18) now expect at least one interest rate hike in 2026. Only one member is forecasting a total increase of 0.75%. Meanwhile, 17 of the 18 members believe inflation remains a significant risk.

At his first meeting as chairman, Kevin Warsh chose not to provide his own economic projections. However, during the press conference, he stressed that the Fed is fully committed to bringing inflation back under control. In addition, analysts interpreted the chairman’s remarks as signalling a strong willingness to take whatever measures are necessary to return inflation to the Fed’s 2% target.

For more information on Kevin Warsh’s press conference, read yesterday’s article.


HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart

On larger timeframes, the price of Gold continues to support a bearish outlook. The price continues to witness clear lower lows and highs, as well as consecutive bearish impulse waves. At the same time, bullish impulse waves seem weak and unable to maintain momentum.

At the same time, the price on smaller timeframes is clearly showing bearish signals, including trading below the 200-bar moving average. In addition to this, the RSI trades at 42.50 and below the VWAP, both indicating a bearish outlook. However, on smaller timeframes, the price has deviated significantly away from the average price, indicating that the price may retrace before continuing downward. Though this will also depend on the US Dollar.

If the US Dollar Index remains above 100.60 on Friday and Monday, Gold may continue to remain under pressure. However, if the price does not increase above today’s highs thereafter, Gold may attempt a bullish breakout.

S&P 500 Declines - How Will The Fed Impact Stocks?

The S&P 500 has understandably come under pressure from the press conference of the new Federal Reserve chairman. However, investors should note that analysts’ outlook for the stock market is not as negative as it is for precious metals.

Precious metals are particularly coming under pressure as they are non-yielding assets whereas the S&P 500 has a dividend yield of 1.08%. In addition to this, the stock market continues to find strong demand for the AI trend and positive economic conditions. This was also reiterated by Mr Warsh at Wednesday’s press conference.

Nonetheless, interest rate hikes and reducing the Fed’s balance sheet can apply pressure to the stock market. For this reason, economists are advising traders to expect both up-and-down volatility. During this morning’s Asian session, the S&P 500 is witnessing a slight bearish outlook for the short term.


HFM - S&P 500 30-Minute Chart

The price of the index is trading below the 200-bar simple moving average and at the day’s VWAP. All global indices are trading lower, and the VIX index has added 2.20%, which indicates risk-off appetite. For this reason, signals indicate that a downward swing is possible. Currently, the price is retracing upward, but if the index falls below $7,476.55, sell signals will strengthen significantly. However, if the price rises above $7,500.00, sell signals will completely fade.

Key Takeaway:

* US Dollar Strengthens - The US Dollar Index has gained 1.68% this week. The currency finds support from growing expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
* Market Prices in Higher Rates - Investors now see a strong chance of a Fed rate hike by July or September, with a 70% probability of two rate hikes in 2026.
* Gold Remains Under Pressure - Easing geopolitical tensions and a stronger, higher-yielding US Dollar continue to weigh on Gold prices.
* Fed Outlook Drives Market Volatility - Chairman Kevin Warsh reinforced the Fed’s commitment to controlling inflation, increasing pressure on Gold and stocks while supporting the US Dollar.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 22nd June 2026.

Currency Market: UK PM To Resign.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The British Pound is the day’s best performing currency as markets expect the resignation of the UK Prime Minister. The Pound is currently trading 0.12% higher, while the second best performing currency is the US Dollar, up 0.3%. However, technical analysts are cautious about the GBPUSD and trading against the US Dollar due to Fed hawkishness.

The worst performing currencies of the past week were the Swiss Franc, New Zealand Dollar and the Canadian Dollar. The Canadian Dollar is particularly under pressure from poor Canadian economic data and lower oil prices. The currency market is likely to witness further volatility this afternoon as Canada releases its Consumer Price Index. Furthermore, tomorrow’s PMI reports are likely to see higher volatility on the US Dollar, Euro and Great British Pound.

Why is PM Starmer Resigning?

The resignation of Prime Minister Keir Starmer is not necessarily a new story for the UK, nor is it yet confirmed. The PM’s resignation has been a theme in UK politics since 2025 when the Peter Mandelson scandal came to light. Peter Mandelson's appointment by Keir Starmer attracted significant criticism and negatively affected perceptions of his leadership.

However, the reason for the resignation is the growing internal rebellion within the party since the poor local election results. Leadership challenges is also another reason, particularly from Andy Burnham, who has gained substantial support among Labour MPs and is widely viewed as a potential successor.

If Andy Burnham becomes the new UK Prime Minister, markets will closely watch whether he replaces the UK Chancellor. If he appoints a new Chancellor, the GBP will likely experience higher volatility. However, the GBP outlook will depend on the replacement and their views on the UK’s monetary policy.

The effect of Andry Burnham being appointed cannot be known. On the one hand, Mr Burnham has well-respected economists as advisors. These include ex-BOE members and Goldman Sachs economists. Additionally, he has spoken about making cuts to welfare, which goes down well with investors. However, on the other hand, many investors fear he is looking to loosen fiscal policy which in the past has significantly damaged the Pound.

Great British Pound - Up in the Short-term, But Long-Term Pressures Remain

During the Asian session, the GBPUSD is witnessing both up and down volatility but continues to maintain bearish signals. The GBP index is trading higher so far, but the US Dollar is the best performing currency of the month. For this reason, even if the GBP can build momentum to form a bullish impulse wave, technical analysts will remain cautious of a downward correction. Particularly as markets expect the Federal Reserve to turn hawkish over the remainder of 2026.

Meanwhile, the GBPCAD and GBPCHF are witnessing stronger buy signals and have a higher possibility of upward price movement.


HFM - GBPCHF 6-Hour Chart

Canadian Dollar - Lower Oil Prices Pressure the CAD

The Canadian Dollar has particularly come under pressure due to its correlation with oil prices. Crude Oil prices have fallen more than 16% in this market putting immense pressure on the CAD. Oil prices continue to decline on Monday as the US-Iran peace process progresses further.

A key new release for the Canadian Dollar will be this afternoon’s Consumer Price Index. Analysts expect the CPI to read 0.7%, higher than the previous month but not the highest this year. If the inflation figure reads higher the CAD may attempt a correction, however, a weaker figure could seriously pressure the CAD.

USDCAD is showing short-term momentum remaining slightly in favour of buyers. On the 1-minute chart, the pair continues producing quick swings while holding above nearby support levels. The 5-minute chart presents a more defined structure of higher highs and higher lows, indicating that buyers are retaining control despite resistance limiting stronger upside progress.


HFM - USDCAD 6-Hour Chart

Meanwhile, the 15-minute chart shows the pair consolidating within a broader intraday trend, suggesting the market is assessing whether sufficient momentum exists for a continuation higher. Overall, the technical outlook remains cautiously bullish while USDCAD holds above its recent support zones. A break above resistance could encourage buyers, while a move below support would increase the risk of a deeper pullback.

The price of the USDCAD remains above all moving averages and seems very bullish. However, investors are cautious the price may be overstretched in the medium-term after increasing in value for 5 consecutive days and 4 consecutive weeks.

Key Takeaway:

* The British Pound leads currency gains as markets increasingly expect Prime Minister Keir Starmer's resignation as early as this morning.
* Andy Burnham becoming Prime Minister could trigger higher GBP volatility, especially if he replaces the current Chancellor.
* The Canadian Dollar remains under pressure from weaker economic data and lower oil prices. Markets turn their attention to today’s Canadian inflation.
* USDCAD remains bullish, though investors are cautious after five consecutive daily gains and four consecutive weekly gains.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 23rd June 2026.

Why Are Stocks Falling Today? AI Selloff, Fed Concerns and Falling Oil Prices.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Global markets weakened on Tuesday as investors took profits in technology stocks, monitored progress in US-Iran peace talks, and prepared for key US inflation data later this week. While falling oil prices would typically support risk sentiment, concerns over elevated interest rates and a stronger US Dollar weighed on equities, Gold, and cryptocurrencies.

For traders, the focus is increasingly shifting away from geopolitics and back toward inflation, central bank policy, and the sustainability of the AI-driven stock market rally.

AI Stocks Lead Global Market Decline

The biggest story in financial markets today is the sharp decline in technology stocks.

After months of strong gains driven by enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence, investors are beginning to question whether current valuations can be justified. The weakness was particularly visible in Asia, where South Korea’s KOSPI index plunged more than 6% amid concerns that major semiconductor and AI-related stocks have become overstretched.

The selling pressure spread across global markets:

* NASDAQ futures fell more than 1%
* S&P 500 futures declined around 0.8%
* The MSCI All Country World Index slipped 0.5%
* Asian equities fell more than 2% from record highs

Technology stocks have been one of the main drivers behind the stock market’s gains throughout 2026. As a result, any sign of weakness in the sector is having a disproportionate impact on overall market sentiment.

Micron Earnings Become a Major Test for AI Stocks

Attention is now turning to Micron Technology’s earnings report on Wednesday, which could become one of the most important events of the week for equity traders.

Many analysts view Micron’s results as a critical test of whether AI-related spending remains strong enough to support the extraordinary rally seen across semiconductor stocks this year.

Several leading chip manufacturers have already recorded gains of hundreds of percent in 2026, making earnings expectations exceptionally high.

Any indication that demand for AI infrastructure is slowing could trigger further profit-taking across the technology sector.

Oil Prices Fall as US-Iran Peace Talks Progress

Oil prices continued to decline after the United States and Iran reported progress in ongoing negotiations aimed at reaching a lasting peace agreement.

Brent crude traded below $78 per barrel after falling more than 3% during the previous session, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude remained near $74 per barrel.

Several developments contributed to the decline:

* The US granted a 60-day waiver allowing some Iranian oil exports.
* Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually recovering.
* Gulf producers are increasing exports through alternative routes.
* Markets are reducing the geopolitical risk premium that had supported oil prices.

The reopening of energy supply routes and expectations of additional Iranian crude entering global markets have eased fears of a prolonged supply shock.

However, traders remain cautious as negotiations continue and disagreements remain over certain aspects of the agreement.



Why Gold Prices Are Falling

Gold prices fell more than 1% on Tuesday despite lingering geopolitical uncertainty.

Normally, ongoing tensions in the Middle East would support demand for safe-haven assets. However, investors are increasingly focused on inflation and interest rates rather than geopolitical risks.

The key factor weighing on Gold is the growing expectation that US interest rates may remain higher for longer.

Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh reinforced this view last week by delivering a hawkish message focused heavily on returning inflation to the central bank’s 2% target.

Higher interest rates tend to reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as Gold while simultaneously strengthening the US Dollar.

Silver also came under pressure, declining more than 3% during the session.

The US Dollar Remains Strong

The US Dollar continues to outperform many major currencies as traders adjust to a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook.

Despite lower oil prices and improving geopolitical conditions, the Dollar remains supported by expectations that US interest rates could stay elevated for longer than previously expected.

This strength has been particularly evident against the Japanese Yen.

The Yen remains close to its weakest level since the 1980s, trading above 161 per Dollar despite repeated intervention efforts from Japanese authorities.

Recent discussions between Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have increased speculation that further intervention may be possible if the currency continues to weaken.

However, markets remain sceptical that intervention alone can reverse the trend without higher Japanese interest rates.



Japanese Bond Markets Signal Rate Hike Concerns

Japan’s latest five-year government bond auction attracted weaker-than-expected demand, highlighting growing concerns about future interest rate increases.

The bid-to-cover ratio fell to its lowest level since February, suggesting investors remain cautious about holding bonds while inflation risks persist.

Although the Bank of Japan recently raised interest rates to their highest level since 1995, many investors believe the central bank may still be behind the curve.

A weaker Yen, imported inflation, and rising wage pressures continue to fuel expectations that further tightening may eventually be required.

For currency traders, developments in Japan remain particularly important as they could influence both the Yen and broader global bond markets.

Core PCE Inflation Data Becomes the Week’s Most Important Event

While traders continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, the most important economic release this week may be the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) inflation report.

Core PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation and could significantly influence expectations for future interest rate decisions.

A higher-than-expected reading could:

* Support the US Dollar
* Push Treasury yields higher
* Increase pressure on Gold
* Trigger additional volatility in stock markets

A softer inflation reading could ease concerns about future rate hikes and support risk assets.

As a result, many traders are likely to remain cautious until the data is released.

Cryptocurrency Markets Also Under Pressure

Risk aversion was not limited to stocks.

Bitcoin fell more than 1%, and Ethereum also moved lower as investors reduced exposure to risk-sensitive assets.

The decline mirrors weakness seen across technology stocks and reflects broader concerns surrounding higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions.

What Traders Should Watch Next

Several major themes are likely to drive markets over the coming days:

* Micron earnings and the outlook for AI-related spending.
* US Core PCE inflation data, which could reshape interest rate expectations.
* US Dollar strength and its impact on Gold and global currencies.
* * Oil prices and further developments in US-Iran peace negotiations
* Japanese Yen intervention risks and potential Bank of Japan policy changes.
* Technology sector performance, particularly whether the recent AI-driven rally can continue.

Market Outlook

The market narrative appears to be shifting.

For much of 2026, investors focused on AI optimism and geopolitical developments. Today, attention is increasingly returning to inflation, interest rates, and economic fundamentals.

The recent pullback in technology stocks does not necessarily signal the end of the AI boom. However, it does suggest that markets are becoming more sensitive to valuations, earnings performance, and monetary policy expectations.

With AI stocks facing a key earnings test, inflation data due later this week, and central banks maintaining a hawkish stance, traders should prepare for elevated volatility across stocks, currencies, commodities, and cryptocurrencies in the days ahead.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 24th June 2026.

Weekly Market Briefing: Stocks Stabilise as Traders Watch AI, Oil, and Fed Data.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Global markets are attempting to stabilise after Tuesday’s sharp technology-led sell-off, with traders now focused on whether the recent weakness is a short-term correction or the beginning of a deeper pullback.

The main event today is Micron Technology’s earnings, which could provide an important signal on whether demand for AI infrastructure remains strong enough to support the recent rally in technology and semiconductor stocks.

Key Market Movers

* Global stocks stabilise after Tuesday’s tech-led rout.
* S&P 500 futures rise 0.2%, while NASDAQ 100 futures gain 0.5%.
* The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 7.9% on Tuesday.
* Micron fell 13% ahead of its earnings report.
* The US Dollar climbed towards a seven-month high.
* Gold fell below $4,100 as the stronger Dollar weighed.
* Oil traded near four-month lows as Strait of Hormuz traffic improved.
* Treasuries steadied as lower oil prices eased inflation concerns.
* Traders now await Thursday’s US personal spending data.

Technology and AI Stocks Remain the Main Market Focus

Technology stocks remain under pressure after Tuesday’s sharp sell-off. The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.3%, while the S&P 500 declined 1.4%.

The biggest pressure came from semiconductor stocks, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 7.9%. All 30 members of the index closed lower as investors questioned whether the AI-driven rally has become overextended.

Micron Technology, Marvell Technology, and On Semiconductor were among the biggest losers. Micron alone fell 13% ahead of its quarterly earnings, making its results one of the most important events of the week.

A strong outlook from Micron could help restore confidence in the AI trade. However, weak guidance could increase concerns that valuations in the sector have moved too far, too fast.



Global Equities Attempt to Recover

After Tuesday’s rout, global stocks found some stability. The MSCI All Country World Index was little changed after falling 1.7% in the previous session.

Asian equities also steadied, with South Korea’s KOSPI rebounding around 3% after a 10% plunge on Tuesday. Samsung Electronics supported the recovery following reports that the company may announce a share buyback.

In the US, S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%, while NASDAQ 100 futures climbed 0.5%. European equity futures were broadly stable.

US Dollar Strengthens, Gold Falls

The US Dollar remained strong, with a key Dollar gauge rising towards a seven-month high.

The stronger Dollar placed pressure on gold, which fell for a second day and traded below $4,100 an ounce. Gold remains sensitive to Dollar strength, Treasury yields, and changing expectations around Federal Reserve policy.



Oil Falls as Middle East Supply Concerns Ease

Oil prices continued to decline, trading near four-month lows.

Brent crude fell below $77 per barrel, while WTI traded close to $72.50. Prices came under pressure as more tanker traffic became visible through the Strait of Hormuz following the interim peace agreement between the US and Iran.

Although uncertainty remains over the durability of the agreement, improving shipping activity has reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium that had previously supported oil prices.

Lower oil prices also helped ease some inflation concerns, reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively.

Treasuries Steady as Traders Watch Fed Signals

Treasuries steadied after gaining on Tuesday. The equity sell-off and falling oil prices were viewed as reducing some of the inflation pressure that had recently pushed yields higher.

The 10-year Treasury yield was little changed around 4.49%.

An auction of 2-year Treasury notes drew strong demand, suggesting investors remain willing to buy US government debt despite uncertainty around future Fed policy.

Traders will now focus on Thursday’s US personal spending data for further clues on inflation, consumer strength, and the Fed’s next steps.

Corporate Highlights

Several corporate developments also attracted attention:

* FedEx reported quarterly earnings above expectations and said profit should grow this year.
* SpaceX attracted around $89 billion of demand for its debut US bond sale.
* SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son said he plans to remain at the top of the company for another decade or more.
* Chinese AI model maker Zhipu is reportedly considering a Hong Kong share sale after a major rally since listing.
* ByteDance is in talks with banks for a potential $20 billion borrowing as it continues investing in AI.
* Goldman Sachs’ equity trading business is reportedly on track for another strong quarter.
* Apollo Global Management is again limiting withdrawals from its largest non-traded private credit fund.

Other Market Moves

Bitcoin rose 0.7% to around $62,815, while Ether gained 0.6% to around $1,672.

In currencies, the euro slipped to around $1.1368, while the yen was little changed near 161.61 per Dollar.

In commodities, gold traded near $4,074, while WTI crude fell to around $72.50.

What Traders Should Watch Next

* Micron Technology earnings
* NASDAQ and semiconductor sector reaction
* S&P 500 support levels
* US personal spending data on Thursday
* US Dollar strength
* Gold’s reaction below $4,100
* Oil prices near four-month lows
* Treasury yields
* Further developments around the US-Iran interim agreement

Market Outlook

Markets remain highly sensitive to AI sentiment, Federal Reserve expectations, and commodity price movements. While global stocks are attempting to stabilise, the recent sell-off shows that investors are becoming more selective after a powerful rally in technology shares.

For now, Micron’s earnings and Thursday’s US personal spending data are likely to determine whether risk sentiment improves or whether the pullback in equities deepens.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 25th June 2026.

Markets Rebound on AI Optimism as Investors Await Key US Inflation Data.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Markets Rebound on AI Optimism as all Eyes Await Key US Inflation Data

Global markets found their footing on Thursday after two difficult sessions, with technology stocks leading the recovery as investors regained confidence in the artificial intelligence sector. Strong earnings guidance from Micron Technology helped shift sentiment, while easing tensions in the Middle East continued to drag oil prices lower.

With the market's attention now firmly on today's US inflation figures, investors are weighing whether the recent rebound has further room to run.

AI Trade Back in Focus

The biggest story of the day came from the semiconductor sector.

Micron Technology surprised markets by forecasting quarterly revenue well above expectations, signalling that demand for AI hardware remains exceptionally strong. The company said demand for both traditional memory chips and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which is widely used in AI servers, continues to outpace supply. It also revealed that customers are increasingly locking in long-term supply agreements, giving the company greater visibility over future sales.

The update was enough to reignite enthusiasm across the entire chip sector.



Shares of Micron surged in after-hours trading, while Asian semiconductor companies followed suit. South Korea's SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics both posted strong gains, with Japan's Advantest and Tokyo Electron also rallying sharply. US futures pointed to a stronger open, with the Nasdaq expected to outperform broader markets.

The latest results also help answer a question investors have been asking for months: is the AI investment cycle beginning to slow? For now, the answer appears to be no.

Falling Oil Prices Lift Sentiment

Another factor supporting equities has been the steady decline in oil prices.

Brent crude has now fallen for a fourth consecutive session and is trading below the level seen before the recent conflict between the United States and Iran. As shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to normalise and diplomatic talks show signs of progress, traders are removing much of the geopolitical risk premium that had been built into energy prices.



Lower oil prices are generally welcomed by equity markets. They reduce inflationary pressure, ease costs for businesses and consumers, and lessen concerns that central banks may need to keep interest rates higher for even longer.

Not surprisingly, energy stocks were among the weaker performers as crude prices extended their decline.

All Eyes on US Inflation

The next major catalyst arrives later today with the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the PCE measure is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, meaning today's report could have a significant impact on interest rate expectations.

Markets expect inflation to remain elevated, and another stronger-than-expected reading would reinforce the view that the Fed may need to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer.

That would likely support the US Dollar and Treasury yields while creating fresh headwinds for Gold and other interest-rate-sensitive assets.

A softer reading, however, could provide investors with some relief and extend today's recovery in equities.

Dollar Holds Firm, Gold Remains Under Pressure

Although the US Dollar eased slightly during Thursday's session, it remains close to its highest level in seven months after benefiting from increasingly hawkish expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve.

Gold, meanwhile, continues to struggle.

The combination of a stronger Dollar, elevated bond yields and easing geopolitical tensions has reduced demand for the precious metal, leaving prices under pressure despite lingering uncertainty across global markets.

Bitcoin Approaches a Critical Test

Cryptocurrency traders are also preparing for what could be a volatile end to the week.

Around $10 billion worth of Bitcoin options are due to expire on Friday, representing more than one-third of all open contracts on Deribit, the world's largest crypto options exchange.

Most of those positions were placed on the expectation that Bitcoin would continue rising. Instead, the cryptocurrency has fallen sharply in recent weeks, leaving many bullish positions out of the money.

That doesn't necessarily mean Bitcoin will continue falling, but it does increase the likelihood of sharp price swings as traders adjust positions and market makers rebalance their hedges.

Many analysts believe the more meaningful signal for Bitcoin's direction will come after the expiry, once much of this temporary positioning has cleared.



Japan Pushes for Continued Monetary Support

In Japan, investors welcomed reports that the government wants monetary policy to remain supportive of economic growth.

A draft of the country's long-term economic strategy encourages the Bank of Japan to continue working closely with the government and maintain policies that support private demand. The language has been interpreted as a sign that policymakers are cautious about raising interest rates too aggressively.

The news helped push Japanese equities sharply higher while keeping pressure on the Yen.

Corporate News in Brief

Several companies also made headlines throughout the session.

Qualcomm raised its full-year revenue outlook and unveiled a new AI-focused processor designed for data centres, sending its shares sharply higher after the close.

OpenAI announced its first custom-built AI chip, developed in partnership with Broadcom, highlighting the growing competition among technology companies to build their own AI infrastructure.

Meanwhile, the largest US banks increased shareholder dividends after successfully passing this year's Federal Reserve stress tests.

Looking Ahead

Today's recovery is another reminder that AI remains one of the market's strongest long-term themes. Strong earnings from companies like Micron continue to support the view that investment in AI infrastructure is still accelerating rather than slowing.

Even so, the direction of markets over the next 24 hours is likely to depend less on corporate earnings and more on inflation.

If today's PCE report comes in hotter than expected, investors may once again favour the US Dollar while scaling back expectations for interest rate cuts. A softer reading, on the other hand, would reinforce today's improvement in sentiment and could provide another boost for global equity markets.

Either way, traders should be prepared for another busy session as inflation once again takes centre stage.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.