My cloud mining experiment

[botolo86]

so are PBMining the only pool/cloud to still be using PPS? returns look as such... i think eclipse still offers PPS, but BTCGuild have moved away from it (don't quote me on any of this!)

Guys, PBMining is not a pool. The company buys hardware and mines at undisclosed pools and gives back profits using a fixed formula.

[1714023881]

1714023881

[1714023881]

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[1714023881]

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[raskul]

so are PBMining the only pool/cloud to still be using PPS? returns look as such... i think eclipse still offers PPS, but BTCGuild have moved away from it (don't quote me on any of this!)

Guys, PBMining is not a pool. The company buys hardware and mines at undisclosed pools and gives back profits using a fixed formula.

great. show me proof of this.

[botolo86]

great. show me proof of this.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=418183.msg4861373#msg4861373

[raskul]

great. show me proof of this.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=418183.msg4861373#msg4861373

thanks for that... I totally missed that entire page. sheds light onto the situation. quite glad I went with my gut instinct - I was so close to buying from the alpha-miner-thingy - seems they turned out to be a total scam.

[Borntostun]

By far the best in returns right now is Scrypt.cc

Click the link below!  Low fees, auto-switching to most profitable coin, pay outs every 10 minutes.  I'm getting about .5% a day right now. 

[botolo86]

By far the best in returns right now is Scrypt.cc

Click the link below!  Low fees, auto-switching to most profitable coin, pay outs every 10 minutes.  I'm getting about .5% a day right now. 

I don't agree with you. I have just used the profitability calculator on the website you mention. If we take the value from my mining spreadsheet referred to today, Day 4, you can see that I am mining  0.00632561 per day. My investment was 0.51019028 BTC and I could have spent less.

To mine the same daily amount of BTC using the website you mention, I would need to buy 656 KHS at 0.99713968 BTC. It's almost double the investment I made.



Also, please do not use this thread to spam with your referral link. I am avoiding using any referral link to keep this thread purely scientific.

[botolo86]

Daily update. No particular comment today. Yesterday I received the first payment from PBMining. They also lowered their price to 0.007 BTC per GHS but they are already sold out 

[Borntostun]

I think you're forgetting one thing though.  With the exception of your small CEX investment, you can't sell (or even trade) your GHS or KHS on those other sites.  It all depends on what you are looking for . . . but the balance of returns, liquidity, and the likelihood of making even larger profits trading win out on long-term mining investments.  These boards are filled with expert analyses of how mining isn't worth it alone . . .

[botolo86]

I am not interested in daily or semi daily trading as unfortunately I don't have the time to dedicate to this.

The experiments arises from my personal wondering on whether cloud mining can be profitable. Current analysis that you can find online usually are based on presumptions related to the difficulty increase, the BTC/USD, etc. The goal of my project is to provide a real life analysis. Let's see what happens if we buy GHS in the cloud at today's price and when we factor in the real difficulty change and the real BTC/USD.

In any case, you gave me an idea for a change in my spreadsheet which will factor the value of GHS in the CEX market, should I decide to sell my hash power.

[Borntostun]

Good point. 

To each his own . . . I prefer being able to get out if need be (and recoup some of my investment). 

Good luck. 

[MTBmanTT]

Hi OP,

I just wanted to thank you for putting this thread and spreadsheet together, found it very educational.

[elrugrim]

Boto-  I will second the try a run at scrypt.cc for comparison.  Lesser initial yeild, but it is not on the btc/difficulty curve, so the back end doesn't have the same diminishing returns prospects.  I won't even toss out a referal, but this is a very nice experiment, so I would like to point out a possible alternative that should payout.

[BigBoy89]

i never heard NimbusMining
maybe too expensive for me;D
how about hashop.io? it is expensive too?
anyone who have contract with them please share in this thread
so we can have many options and comparison
-
cex.io GHS/BTC trading is not profitable for hold GHS for long time
cause GHS price drop everytime (especially when difficulty increase)

[botolo86]

Here is a new update, sorry that I missed yesterday.

I have added daily CEX GHS/BTC value and I have added a "What if I stop mining today" summary section, which includes also the profit I would make if I sell my CEX GHS.

Enjoy.

[Don007]

Great experiment, I will follow this topic.

So, if someone still wants to rent Gh/s these days, you recommend them to use PBMining?

[botolo86]

So, if someone still wants to rent Gh/s these days, you recommend them to use PBMining?

This is a tricky question. PBMining has the lowest price per GHS so far and the website seems to run pretty smoothly. CEX has a higher GHS price but you can also resell your GHS anytime you want. I am running some numbers as we speak.

Let's create a hypo. Let's say that I buy 100 GHS on CEX and 100 GHS on PBMining right now.

I would pay 1.18 BTC on CEX at its current GHS/BTC price. I would get the same amount of GHS from PBMining at 0.7 BTC.

Let's assume that difficulty does not change, as this value does not really affect our analysis, which is focused on same amount of GHS mining roughly the same amount of BTC every day.

After 60 days of mining, CEX would have mined for me 0.506016 BTC (considering that CEX charges around 16% fee). PBMining would have mined for me 0.6024 BTC.

If you see these numbers you tend to think that PBMining is better. But if I stop mining for some reason on day 60, I can resell my GHS on CEX. Let's assume that the GHS/BTC value is 0.010 on CEX, I would then get a total of 1.506016 BTC (sold GHS and mined BTC), while on PBMining I would still be stuck with my 0.6024 BTC.

Let's say that I don't cash in and I keep on mining.

After 120 days, my profit with CEX would be 1.012032 BTC, with PBMining 1.2048. PBMining is still better but if I sell my GHS on CEX at, let's say, 0.007 I would get a total of 1.712032.

Any thoughts?

[Don007]

Hm, thanks for your reply. I didn't took that "sell option" under consideration.  And, as PBmining is relatively young, it might still turn out to be a ponzi.

According to your calculation, you will earn 0.60 BTC for 60 Days of mining at PBminining at 0.7 BTC, so it takes only 2 and half month to ROI.. That's not bad either.

I think it's a hard decision. Thank you anyway very much for your experiment and explanation & calculation!

[botolo86]

According to your calculation, you will earn 0.60 BTC for 60 Days of mining at PBminining at 0.7 BTC, so it takes only 2 and half month to ROI.. That's not bad either.

Be careful, I said that I was not taking difficulty increase into consideration in my analysis, mainly because I was interested in seeing how much impact the sale of GHS may have.

[Don007]

Ah yeah, sorry.

How often does the difficulty increases? And by how much on average? I think it's about +20% doesn't it?  Unfortunately I fail at math, otherwise I could have made a more realistic ROI calculation.

Thanks anyway!

[botolo86]

Ah yeah, sorry.

How often does the difficulty increases? And by how much on average? I think it's about +20% doesn't it?  Unfortunately I fail at math, otherwise I could have made a more realistic ROI calculation.

Thanks anyway!

It changes every 11/12 days but it's very difficult to predict how much it changes, because this is caused by the increase of the hashing power on the network. I usually check bitcoinwisdom.com, which is pretty reliable and interesting. For example, the next difficulty increase will happen in 3.2 days and it should be a 21% jump (pretty bad for us).