My cloud mining experiment

[tricomp]

So, if someone still wants to rent Gh/s these days, you recommend them to use PBMining?

This is a tricky question. PBMining has the lowest price per GHS so far and the website seems to run pretty smoothly. CEX has a higher GHS price but you can also resell your GHS anytime you want. I am running some numbers as we speak.

Let's create a hypo. Let's say that I buy 100 GHS on CEX and 100 GHS on PBMining right now.

I would pay 1.18 BTC on CEX at its current GHS/BTC price. I would get the same amount of GHS from PBMining at 0.7 BTC.

Let's assume that difficulty does not change, as this value does not really affect our analysis, which is focused on same amount of GHS mining roughly the same amount of BTC every day.

After 60 days of mining, CEX would have mined for me 0.506016 BTC (considering that CEX charges around 16% fee). PBMining would have mined for me 0.6024 BTC.

If you see these numbers you tend to think that PBMining is better. But if I stop mining for some reason on day 60, I can resell my GHS on CEX. Let's assume that the GHS/BTC value is 0.010 on CEX, I would then get a total of 1.506016 BTC (sold GHS and mined BTC), while on PBMining I would still be stuck with my 0.6024 BTC.

Let's say that I don't cash in and I keep on mining.

After 120 days, my profit with CEX would be 1.012032 BTC, with PBMining 1.2048. PBMining is still better but if I sell my GHS on CEX at, let's say, 0.007 I would get a total of 1.712032.

Any thoughts?

Your analysis appears to be highly dependent on your assumptions about the resale price you will get on CEX. If the price drop is higher, you may or may not  get back your initial investment from your resale price and mining profit.

[1714023288]

1714023288

[1714023288]

1714023288

[1714023288]

1714023288

[raskul]

it does depend on how you want to play it.. with CEX there is that 'getout' always available, which is why it is a desirable option for many.

At the end of the day, I think it boils down to personal preference. I didn't do such in-depth analysis before I decided where to buy cloudhashpower (and thanks to the OP for doing this comparison).

So I did decide, eventually - and it took me a good month of contemplation to take the hashpower and be done with it. Funnily enough, I also signed up to the scrypt.cc cloudhashing, which works in a similar way to CEX (but for scrypt) - and I soon realised it was not worth buying hashpower in there. I have 4.5KH on scrypt.cc that i've had there (seems like forever) and I just plough back the few thousand satoshi that earns me per day, back into more KH - in some hope that eventually it will build enough to see some worthy payouts.

So, personal preference, if you want that getout option, go for CEX, if you are sure you just want the hashpower - PBMining.
Gladly, instead of my meagre 180GH miner at home, I now also have 150GH in cloud, so weekly earnings are at the very least; keeping up with difficulty (somewhat - on a meagre scale) and it was this ultimate reason which swayed me; I just wanted to keep up with rising difficulty.

I have another BFL60 arriving tomorrow, and i'm getting into mining multipool SHA256 coins at home. I seem to be ahead of the market with that for now and it's mining me more than I would be mining in BTC - but that's a whole other comparison altogether, and not for me, i just don't have the time!

[botolo86]

Raskul, you are right, it really depends on how you want to play with it. One positive thing about PBMining is that you buy hash power and you then just forget about it and receive your weekly payments. With CEX, you are always under the pressure of selling your hash power if the GHS price goes down too much 

[tricomp]

If only PBMining could enable hash transfer among customers. This would give an opportunity to sell hash and get out when one wants to. Along with the current better pricing  from PBMining, It will make them the winner,  hands-down ,  no more debate.

[Borntostun]

But of course that would raise the price . . . you're getting it cheap because you are locked in. 

[raskul]

But of course that would raise the price . . . you're getting it cheap because you are locked in.  

I wouldn't go so far to say it's entirely 'cheap' at PBMining, but it is *coughs* the same price-for-price as a KnC Neptune if you were to buy it today.

ouch.  
If I had the money to buy a rig today, my money would be on spondoolies-tech.

[botolo86]

Daily update. I have changed some things. I have gotten rid of Nimbus Mining in the spreadsheet. Their service is great but it's too pricey and it will never ROI. It does not make sense to keep tracking it. I will point my 1GHS from Nimbus Mining to GHASH.IO so that I can collect that tiny mining profit into my CEX.IO account.

I have also gotten rid of BTC/USD. It fluctuates too much and it does not make sense to keep tracking it. Let's focus on the important stuff.

I am now monitoring my GHS on CEX and on PBMINING. I have a total of 67 GHS. I am also doing projections using the daily mining profit estimate by bitcoinwisdom.com.

Enjoy!

[TechByPC]

[snip]
If you see these numbers you tend to think that PBMining is better. But if I stop mining for some reason on day 60, I can resell my GHS on CEX. Let's assume that the GHS/BTC value is 0.010 on CEX, I would then get a total of 1.506016 BTC (sold GHS and mined BTC), while on PBMining I would still be stuck with my 0.6024 BTC.
[snip]
Any thoughts?

Good to read your analysis. Thanks for posting this.. I'd just like to point out though that we know (kind of) what GHS/BTC value in 2 months will be. The FHM contract is selling around 0.004 right now, which means if you think GHS will be selling at 0.010 in two months, you should be heavily investing in FHM for a better return on your investment. Consider that you could take a 1 BTC today, buy ~250 FHM, and sell it in two months for 2.5 BTC. By far that's a better return than mining. Conversely, if GHS is to be at or around 0.004 at the end of May when these contracts mature your returns would be closer to 0.906016 on CEX. Still better than PBMining! I think this is more realistic of an estimate though.

[Don007]

What do you mean with the FHM contract? I heard someone else that you can buy 1 Gh/s starting next month for 0.004. He pointed towards Cex.io, but I can't find it anywhere.

[byt411]

What do you mean with the FHM contract? I heard someone else that you can buy 1 Gh/s starting next month for 0.004. He pointed towards Cex.io, but I can't find it anywhere.

FHM = Future Hashes May.
On cex.io, there is a trading pair named "FHM/BTC". FHM is basically GHashes that start mining in may, and FHA in April.
But you also have to take into account the difficulty will still go up.

[TechByPC]

What do you mean with the FHM contract? I heard someone else that you can buy 1 Gh/s starting next month for 0.004. He pointed towards Cex.io, but I can't find it anywhere.

FHM/BTC tab. It is in the row that starts with GHS/BTC.

It will convert to GHS and begin hashing on May 25.

[raskul]

hahahahahahaha

 PRE-ORDER cloud GH/s

haven't we been butt-fucked enough?

[Don007]

What do you mean with the FHM contract? I heard someone else that you can buy 1 Gh/s starting next month for 0.004. He pointed towards Cex.io, but I can't find it anywhere.

FHM = Future Hashes May.
On cex.io, there is a trading pair named "FHM/BTC". FHM is basically GHashes that start mining in may, and FHA in April.
But you also have to take into account the difficulty will still go up.

What do you mean with the FHM contract? I heard someone else that you can buy 1 Gh/s starting next month for 0.004. He pointed towards Cex.io, but I can't find it anywhere.

FHM/BTC tab. It is in the row that starts with GHS/BTC.

It will convert to GHS and begin hashing on May 25.

Thanks! I found it

hahahahahahaha

 PRE-ORDER cloud GH/s

haven't we been butt-fucked enough?

Well, 0.004 per Gh/s ain't that bad. Unfortunately at the end of May the difficulty will be much higher..

[raskul]

Well, 0.004 per Gh/s ain't that bad. Unfortunately at the end of May the difficulty will be much higher..

yes so marking it up with a price at this time, is just another pre-order scam.
I've sworn never to take on another pre-order, and that includes socks from sainsbury's, no matter how small the price, i'm not sending a single penny to anyone for a pre-order purchase.

[Zealous Zero]

Those future bets (FHM/FHA) sound risky but, to each his own.
I'd like to see some of the features they talked about, namely scrypt mining and commodity exchange as that will improve CEX.IOs best trait, flexibility.

[TechByPC]

Those future bets (FHM/FHA) sound risky but, to each his own.
I'd like to see some of the features they talked about, namely scrypt mining and commodity exchange as that will improve CEX.IOs best trait, flexibility.

Traditionally GHS is way above what it "should" be, so chances are that just holding the contracts and selling at maturity will be positive. However, their prices for the contracts have held very steady since they were introduced. You can sell those contracts as easily as you buy them, and so long as you set a price when you sell and don't do an immediate transaction, you really could get out of a contract at a very minimal loss. As you said, CEX.IO's best trait is flexibility, and these contracts are the same.

[botolo86]

Hello Guys,

Sorry for the late reply. Here is the daily update. No particular news here, just regular mining.

[raskul]

Hello Guys,

Sorry for the late reply. Here is the daily update. No particular news here, just regular mining.

all good... i know that you are going on GH/s already purchased, but just to note PBMining have just reduced prices to 0.0064btc / GH/s

[botolo86]

all good... i know that you are going on GH/s already purchased, but just to note PBMining have just reduced prices to 0.0064btc / GH/s

I have seen it, thanks! But they are currently sold out 

[raskul]

all good... i know that you are going on GH/s already purchased, but just to note PBMining have just reduced prices to 0.0064btc / GH/s

I have seen it, thanks! But they are currently sold out 

sorry i wan't meaning that you should go buy some! I just wondered how you would include this in future comparisons?