Was $25K the bottom?

[dragonvslinux]

Many of you will read this and probably think hell no: We go to $20-$22K. We go down 80% like every time to $14K. There'll be a multi-year bear market. But what if most of you were wrong.

Things repeat when they rhyme. But by enough metrics such as log growth, timing and 6 months apart double top, there is little rhythm compared to previous cycles.

I don't doubt there could be a capitulation wick, as is the tradition, as based on profit/losses we are in the fear stage as there is still 16% more unrealised profit than losses in the market. But what if there were more long-term investors in the market than speculators, and a realised price of $24K actually seems reasonable.

I'm not really suggesting the bottom is already in, and do think we can easily go a bit lower, but I doubt it will last very long, similar to in March 2020 when price recovered within 6 weeks. The 1 year+ hodlers reached a new all time high of 65% this week, so this is far from the pre-capiluation levels of sub 1:1 ratio of long-term to short-term hodlers which has been the common cause of previous bear market ending capitulations

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seemed that most people thought $30K would hold (myself included), others believed we'd go to at least $20K. So far the former group have been proven wrong, so it seems likely enough that the latter group can be wrong as well. It reminds me of 2018 when most thought $6K would hold, and a year later at $14K that price would never go back below $4K, before both events occurred.

The one thing that is sure is that there are a lot more on-chain metircs than the bear market of 2018. Specific tools that long-term investors prefer to use to analyse price using more fundamental data, rather than prise-based, bearing in mind there currently are more investors than speculators right now, unlike a year ago. Another factor is that twice can be coincidence, while three times or more is considered a pattern. So with the previous bear markets of 2011, 2013 and 2018, there was a distinct pattern of a recovery.

Call it hopium after breaking a higher low and higher high structure, which for me did confirm the end of the bull market, but I do think this bear market could only last anywhere between 1 - 6 weeks, even if consolidation thereafter takes considerable time. Longer-term holders are still refusing to sell at a loss, with shorter term holders (particularly 6-12 month unsurprisingly) instead taking responsibility for the selling.

I'm still struggling to see how a crypto winter is coming, I already feel like we've been in one for 12 months already. Either that, or price will have to go significantly lower or in order to shake out strong hands.

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seemed that most people thought $30K would hold (myself included),

I have never doubted that before, only what I doubt is for the price to go below last two halving all-time-high price which was in December 2017, which has never happened before, which means it is highly unlikely that bitcoin price will go below $19600

I'm still struggling to see how a crypto winter is coming, I already feel like we've been in one for 12 months already. Either that, or price will have to go significantly lower or in order to shake out strong hands.

There is nothing coming than bull market, even if the price decreases further, the price will rise again. There is no best time to buy bitcoin recently than now. Bitcoin never gets liquidated but all-time-high is highly likely.

[gantez]

The bear is not surprising and it is expected a longtime but maybe it has taken time to come down this deep. Going to 25k for my view is not to be in doubt because on the long time is still looking bearish and that circle has to complete for the bull correction to begin. It is still showing possible down trend to continue to the end of this month. If it is continue that can break to 25k.

[OgNasty]

I'm still struggling to see how a crypto winter is coming, I already feel like we've been in one for 12 months already. Either that, or price will have to go significantly lower or in order to shake out strong hands.

You've been around long enough...  Don't you remember when the crash from $20K to $6K happened and then it bounced back above $10K and everyone said the bear market was behind us?  Then we fell to $3K and sat there for a long time.  While you can see clear signs of capitulation a few days ago, I think that was a clear bottom in the short term.  Longer term, I think we have lower to go.  Scarily, the major support level does seem to be around $10K, so if we're still mirroring the 4-year cycles of past, I would expect a revisit to $10K sometime over the next year.  Not saying it's set in stone as I don't think we've ever seen this market fall below the previous cycle's high.  You can see from the NASDAQ leaders that market leaders have fallen as much as 80% in some situations.  Altcoins are down similarly in that period.  So I understand the argument that we've hit bottom already.  My question to the people who make that argument...  Do you really think it's different this time?

[Russlenat]

For whatever reason, the market is bearish again. However, I'm not surprised with what happened, and not so surprised that bitcoin falls back to $28k again, it's the lowest I guess. It has slightly recovered back to $30k but it's struggling to stay, so I'll probably just prepare myself for another dump in the coming days.

IIRC, it was not only $6k, but bitcoin dump to $3k after it achieved a $20k ATH.
That happened after over a year from the date bitcoin reach its ATH.

So $20k to $3k, so it's possible to see at $10k price.

[DoublerHunter]

~snip~
Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seemed that most people thought $30K would hold (myself included), others believed we'd go to at least $20K. So far the former group have been proven wrong, so it seems likely enough that the latter group can be wrong as well. It reminds me of 2018 when most thought $6K would hold, and a year later at $14K that price would never go back below $4K, before both events occurred.

^ This is what is also in my mind and I believed it will never go down beyond $20k the BTC price.
The $30k price is the hold point and waits until the ATH will come back. But however, I did not have too much in worries because I am a long-term holder which is I know the BTC price will increase after the correction (the term correction was still what I am thinking during this dip).
So possible, $25k is already at the button and it will never go down beyond that price. I think, avoid thinking this and think that you are holding like a year to bring out your benefits.

[adaseb]

Maybe it was or maybe it was not. I think it mostly depends on how the nasdaq performs for the next few weeks. If the nasdaq is going to keep making new lows then mostly likely so will Bitcoin.

If $25K was not the low then most likely something like $22-23K might be. I don’t think we will get to $20K. Way too many people want to buy in that area and most likely will get front run. Also Bitcoin never retests it’s prior cycles ATH. However there is no guarantee that this time it will be the same.

[btc78]

how much would it be? lol 25k seems not to come .

The bear is not surprising and it is expected a longtime but maybe it has taken time to come down this deep. Going to 25k for my view is not to be in doubt because on the long time is still looking bearish and that circle has to complete for the bull correction to begin. It is still showing possible down trend to continue to the end of this month. If it is continue that can break to 25k.

yes it is.

[pooya87]

Good points and I believe it is really impossible to say what the bottom was and whether $30k is going to hold (price currently is a little lower) but one thing is certain the cycle as we knew it is broken and all we have been seeing in the past 6 months are brand new. In other words nobody can claim 80% drop because it happened before because nothing of this trend is like before and even if price did drop that low like the $14K you mentioned, it still wouldn't be because "it happened before" but instead it would be because of a million different new reasons.

[gantez]

As to now it is not a clear picture of where price will go because the strong hands seem like pulling out. In 2017 going to 2018 is similar to that happening now. The rush of fear and dump is taking price further down and within two weeks btc has gone down from $39k to $29k and yet no bull sign that it will pick this week because the price selling below the $30,000 area this morning.

[Ararbermas]

We have no idea, in fact bitcoin is not yet on that level because it's currently at $29k and the the support level is around $26k fyi.  And in my views it seems someone trying to push bitcoin upward as there's already some green candles on the daily time frame, so perhaps it will not happen since bitcoin is now starting to make correction because you know usually if there's such results it means there's a chance for reversals.. Just saying.

[davis196]

I really hope that the recent panic on the crypto markets was mostly caused by the Luna/Terra collapse.
After the market bloodbath caused by Luna/Terra,there will be a period of stagnation,followed by a price recovery.
The pessimistic scenario is that the investors are running away from the crypto markets searching for safe heavens like gold and commodities.
In this case,the crypto price recovery won't happen anytime soon and we will have to wait for until 2024.
I don't see any major FUD attack against Bitcoin right now.There's no reason for FUD.The big governments/central banks aren't acting hostile towards BTC,the blockchain is doing just fine.This gives me hope that Bitcoin will rise like a phoenix in the upcoming years.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

We have no idea, in fact bitcoin is not yet on that level because it's currently at $29k and the the support level is around $26k fyi.  And in my views it seems someone trying to push bitcoin upward as there's already some green candles on the daily time frame, so perhaps it will not happen since bitcoin is now starting to make correction because you know usually if there's such results it means there's a chance for reversals.. Just saying.

Yeah, we are just basing on the historical logs, but we are not certain that it might follow that series of events or not. Seems to be around $29k-$30k right now. And so if we maintain $30k, then the next obvious attempt will be $32k and see if it will hold again or not. I don't think that we will have a "terra luna event" in the future. Yes we felt the effect but is not going to last as the price might bounce again to somewhere to $35k at least.

[Lucius]

Longer-term holders are still refusing to sell at a loss, with shorter term holders (particularly 6-12 month unsurprisingly) instead taking responsibility for the selling.

Who do you mean by long-term holders? To people like Saylor, Winklevoss twins and some other billionaires, or ordinary people? The big ones have refused to sell because they are not gambling with the money they need for a living, and most small investors are unfortunately out of the game for fear of losing even more. Now we just need some new people to start believing in Bitcoin to start a new cycle, a sad but unfortunately true sequence of events that are not happening for the first time.

I'm still struggling to see how a crypto winter is coming, I already feel like we've been in one for 12 months already. Either that, or price will have to go significantly lower or in order to shake out strong hands.

12 months in crypto winter? I don't feel that way, although for some crypto winter started at the very moment when it was evident that the price of the magical $100k would not be realized. Personally, I'm sorry for those for whom it was an exit point, because in the end, for the most part, it all comes down to how many fiats will come to their bank account.

[dragonvslinux]

Longer-term holders are still refusing to sell at a loss, with shorter term holders (particularly 6-12 month unsurprisingly) instead taking responsibility for the selling.

Who do you mean by long-term holders?

Coins not moved for 1Y+ (currently 65%)
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/1-year-hodl-wave/

[cabron]

In April 2021, traders were already selling and expect the price to correct and it did at $30K and then goes back up $68K. Now were back at $30K again. The price will likely be at this level for weeks.  Its probably going to be a tiny movements of price again, there might be changes to the cycle if it turns out the bulls suddenly comes to rescue the holders. What traders see these days is that despite the price dipping below $30K, there were lots of traders buying. Just cross your fingers for it will be weeks to months before we find out.

[crzy]

Longer-term holders are still refusing to sell at a loss, with shorter term holders (particularly 6-12 month unsurprisingly) instead taking responsibility for the selling.

Who do you mean by long-term holders?

Coins not moved for 1Y+ (currently 65%)
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/1-year-hodl-wave/

Most probably they know good prices are still coming and for sure, he’s not into this market that much and busy on other things as well. Long term holder can’t stop the market from crashing though and because of this they have no choice but to wait for the market to recover because they don’t want to sell at a loss. $25k might be the bottom, if BTC able to stay above the support level then it could be the bottom price.

[dunfida]

Longer-term holders are still refusing to sell at a loss, with shorter term holders (particularly 6-12 month unsurprisingly) instead taking responsibility for the selling.

Who do you mean by long-term holders?

Coins not moved for 1Y+ (currently 65%)
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/1-year-hodl-wave/

Most probably they know good prices are still coming and for sure, he’s not into this market that much and busy on other things as well. Long term holder can’t stop the market from crashing though and because of this they have no choice but to wait for the market to recover because they don’t want to sell at a loss. $25k might be the bottom, if BTC able to stay above the support level then it could be the bottom price.

If we do compare the current price as of writing (30990) in preev.com which its a 6k difference before hitting that 25k again.Isnt really that far off? No its not thats why i dont really make myself that too much confident

that we wont really be touching those low levels but in overall i did buy into those bottom an sell out recently which i do make out profits in a short time and would repeat on the same decision if ever the price would

go down but we know that this is something that couldnt be known or handle it out and this is where risk management talks or matter.

[Captain Corporate]

It is definitely "far off" enough to be not scared of it anymore. However, we have to also realize that we were around 40k just recently, and all these crashes made it down to a bottom, so when you are considering crypto, you are considering something much bigger. This could be the reason why people are looking at this a bit more clearly, its not a guaranteed thing and we could definitely go down even more. This is what we should look at, the possibilities and when we are talking about possibilities that means we could fall down even more, or we could skyrocket to a high price, both of them are equally possible.

[Scripture]

Hopefully yes, since the price is already at the level of $31k as of posting and there's a huge volume of buyers which can tell us that they are back and willing to buy BTC again. Well, for me if we are still not able to break the resistance level, then there's still a chance for the price to corrects which can be another opportunity to buy BTC. This is why I'm not panicking, since I have some money to buy at the bottom and I know that bottom won't last a week, whales are also waiting on that level.