Well, I would say bitcoin options markets are already mature, as there are several billions of dollars in open interest and much more trading every given day.
Also, you described “historical volatility”, or the volatility Bitcoin has already experienced in the past. Options market quote the implied volatility, or the volatility bitcoin is expected to have toward the expiry of the option.
Totally a different animal: one is backward looking, the other forward looking.
I agree that we can not use past data, look at the past performance of Bitcoin and past events, then say Bitcoin will have similar movements in future. Backwards and Forwards are very different and many things in future will not be the same like in the past.
Nevertheless, the common points between the past and the future, no matter what events will appear in future, are the psychological cycle of the market will not change; and the emotional as well as psychological responses of majority of the market participants will be repeated.
Greedy people will repeat their past faults in future, buy high sell low, and will continue their failure to control their emotion.
Fear and Greed index. They will be fearful when they need to be greedy and do oppositely when they need to be fearful, they are greedy.