Vitalik Buterin sets date for Ethereum’s Merge

[Coinfarm ventures]

People are wating for the bottom before they start buying anything, myself included, prices are very expensive yet to what it will become,
What determines pow coins prices are electricity prices

I think the lowest BTC price can go is $20k. I have started buying some of them. I'll save the rest of my cash for buying cheap video cards after PoS.

Energy prices should have no relationship with PoW or Bitcoin price. The number of coins being emitted is always the same. If electricity price increases, network hashrate will fall or grow slower. The only variable is the number of machines on the network.

Speculation determines the price of all coins. Hashrate follows price movements. If the price doubles, the hashrate will at least double, assuming block reward stays constant. We will probably reach a point in 10-20 years when BTC price is very stable, at say $2m, and mining becomes like any other business where the ROI is < 10%/year instead of 40-300% like today. Miners will only make 7¢/kWh while having to pay 5¢/kWh for power. 1.5¢ goes to paying for the equipment, 0.3¢ goes to employees, and the farm owner only gets 0.2¢ in the end.

By then we should have Antminer S39's that do 1500 Th/s each on an 800 picometer or so node.

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[adaseb]

What is the point of buying GPUs after it goes POS? I don’t think any of the current POW coins (except BTC or LTC) Have a large enough miner reward to provide a decent profit.

Even if we were in a bull market, I don’t think the profits will even come close. It’ll be like $0.05 per GPU per day. Don’t think the hashrate will drop on the other POW by much. Those with free power in 3rd world countries will still mine.

[Coinfarm ventures]

Even if we were in a bull market, I don’t think the profits will even come close. It’ll be like $0.05 per GPU per day. Don’t think the hashrate will drop on the other POW by much. Those with free power in 3rd world countries will still mine.

You're right. No other GPU coin will match the sudden crash in block rewards. ETC doesn't count because it will become an ASIC coin.  We're left with pennies of profit, if any. Only speculative mining will make sense, like mining & HODLing FIRO/FLUX/ERG. But those who still mine could become rich if one of these GPU coins ever becomes big like ETH. I remember back when ETH price was just $10, difficulty was very low, and my R9 270 rig could produce 1-2 Ethers every week. Should've saved them! But anyway, that will be my bet.

[Metroid]

People are wating for the bottom before they start buying anything, myself included, prices are very expensive yet to what it will become,
What determines pow coins prices are electricity prices

I think the lowest BTC price can go is $20k. I have started buying some of them. I'll save the rest of my cash for buying cheap video cards after PoS.

Energy prices should have no relationship with PoW or Bitcoin price. The number of coins being emitted is always the same. If electricity price increases, network hashrate will fall or grow slower. The only variable is the number of machines on the network.

Speculation determines the price of all coins. Hashrate follows price movements. If the price doubles, the hashrate will at least double, assuming block reward stays constant. We will probably reach a point in 10-20 years when BTC price is very stable, at say $2m, and mining becomes like any other business where the ROI is < 10%/year instead of 40-300% like today. Miners will only make 7¢/kWh while having to pay 5¢/kWh for power. 1.5¢ goes to paying for the equipment, 0.3¢ goes to employees, and the farm owner only gets 0.2¢ in the end.

By then we should have Antminer S39's that do 1500 Th/s each on an 800 picometer or so node.

"What determines pow coins prices are electricity prices" I meant in the bear market as in the bear market it has no hype, speculation or anything that makes any coin to rise. So in the bear market electricity prices means 90% for miners and pow coins.

"Speculation determines the price of all coins. Hashrate follows price movements. If the price doubles, the hashrate will at least double, assuming block reward stays constant. We will probably reach a point in 10-20 years when BTC price is very stable, at say $2m, and mining becomes like any other business where the ROI is < 10%/year instead of 40-300% like today. Miners will only make 7¢/kWh while having to pay 5¢/kWh for power. 1.5¢ goes to paying for the equipment, 0.3¢ goes to employees, and the farm owner only gets 0.2¢ in the end."

About the above, while in the bull market yes. Anyway, I'm not buying anything yet, this might be another bulltrap before hehell? 40k might be possible, I'm sure there will be a last bulltrap before eth merge.

[Salamande]

People are wating for the bottom before they start buying anything, myself included, prices are very expensive yet to what it will become,
What determines pow coins prices are electricity prices

I think the lowest BTC price can go is $20k. I have started buying some of them. I'll save the rest of my cash for buying cheap video cards after PoS.

Energy prices should have no relationship with PoW or Bitcoin price. The number of coins being emitted is always the same. If electricity price increases, network hashrate will fall or grow slower. The only variable is the number of machines on the network.

Speculation determines the price of all coins. Hashrate follows price movements. If the price doubles, the hashrate will at least double, assuming block reward stays constant. We will probably reach a point in 10-20 years when BTC price is very stable, at say $2m, and mining becomes like any other business where the ROI is < 10%/year instead of 40-300% like today. Miners will only make 7¢/kWh while having to pay 5¢/kWh for power. 1.5¢ goes to paying for the equipment, 0.3¢ goes to employees, and the farm owner only gets 0.2¢ in the end.

By then we should have Antminer S39's that do 1500 Th/s each on an 800 picometer or so node.

"What determines pow coins prices are electricity prices" I meant in the bear market as in the bear market it has no hype, speculation or anything that makes any coin to rise. So in the bear market electricity prices means 90% for miners and pow coins.

"Speculation determines the price of all coins. Hashrate follows price movements. If the price doubles, the hashrate will at least double, assuming block reward stays constant. We will probably reach a point in 10-20 years when BTC price is very stable, at say $2m, and mining becomes like any other business where the ROI is < 10%/year instead of 40-300% like today. Miners will only make 7¢/kWh while having to pay 5¢/kWh for power. 1.5¢ goes to paying for the equipment, 0.3¢ goes to employees, and the farm owner only gets 0.2¢ in the end."

About the above, while in the bull market yes. Anyway, I'm not buying anything yet, this might be another bulltrap before hehell? 40k might be possible, I'm sure there will be a last bulltrap before eth merge.

Can I receive a satoshi everytime you say that? I would already have a bitcoin since last november 

[Coinfarm ventures]

"What determines pow coins prices are electricity prices" I meant in the bear market as in the bear market it has no hype, speculation or anything that makes any coin to rise. So in the bear market electricity prices means 90% for miners and pow coins.

It depends on how much of the selling pressure comes from miners. If miners are most of the sellers of Bitcoin, then yes, they will never sell for below electricity cost, which should be around $10-$15k. However, speculators might sell for well below that. In that case, miners go bankrupt until hashrate declines to a point where mining is sustainable again.

[Metroid]

Can I receive a satoshi everytime you say that? I would already have a bitcoin since last november 

hehe, its natural btc tends to crash to hehell once it hits its top

It depends on how much of the selling pressure comes from miners. If miners are most of the sellers of Bitcoin, then yes, they will never sell for below electricity cost, which should be around $10-$15k. However, speculators might sell for well below that. In that case, miners go bankrupt until hashrate declines to a point where mining is sustainable again.

That is where my buy orders are, previous bear markets, btc crashed below electricity cost, so I'm waiting for that. I know there is a time limit to buy before it goes up again but that is at least 24 months from its top, so there is a lot of time yet. I know 25k btc is not the bottom yet based on history, if it will happen or not that is to be seen but I will wait, not going to rush buy.

[Coinfarm ventures]

btc crashed below electricity cost, so I'm waiting for that

I looked at this graph. Bitcoin mining revenue never dropped below the power cost, assuming 5¢/kWh, even with a Bitmain S9j ASIC with downclocked firmware 11 Th/s @ 750w. Mining farms were able to scrape by during the 2019-2020 bear market, especially if they had a more efficient Whatsminer M20S or Antminer S15/17. They weren't able to pay off the equipment, but they could at least pay the power bill. If they couldn't pay the power bill, they would just shut down.

[Metroid]

btc crashed below electricity cost, so I'm waiting for that

I looked at this graph. Bitcoin mining revenue never dropped below the power cost, assuming 5¢/kWh, even with a Bitmain S9j ASIC with downclocked firmware 11 Th/s @ 750w. Mining farms were able to scrape by during the 2019-2020 bear market, especially if they had a more efficient Whatsminer M20S or Antminer S15/17. They weren't able to pay off the equipment, but they could at least pay the power bill. If they couldn't pay the power bill, they would just shut down.

Okay check 18-03-2020, it says 0.07 for 1 THash/s, just one example, in 2020 good asics were around 70 th/s, check this article https://www.advancedmining.io/top-5-bitcoin-asic-mining-gear-for-2020/ , january 2020, profitability on that graph on january 2020 was 0.15 so was double of the bottom in 2020 on march 18, so in that article it said a 73th top of the food chain was receiving 10.50 usd per day, 8.50 usd was power cost and 2 usd was profit, that was double than march 18 2020, meaning, in march 2020 as profitability was 0.07 and january 0.15, meaning profitability in january was double of march meaning that 10.50 usd per day in march 2020 was 50% less meaning, 10.50 / 2 = 5.25 per day, power cost still 8.50$, so $8.50 minus $5.25 = negative profit of around $3.25 when talking about the best btc miner available in march 2020, imagine the worst miners. That is just one example of how bad mining profitability got in 2020 march, yes after that bullrun started in july 2020 with eth, btc only broke through in november 2020 and that was not the only bottom, we had more cases where it was negative profit using the best btc miners available and like I said before, imagine the average to bad btc miners.

[philipma1957]

btc crashed below electricity cost, so I'm waiting for that

I looked at this graph. Bitcoin mining revenue never dropped below the power cost, assuming 5¢/kWh, even with a Bitmain S9j ASIC with downclocked firmware 11 Th/s @ 750w. Mining farms were able to scrape by during the 2019-2020 bear market, especially if they had a more efficient Whatsminer M20S or Antminer S15/17. They weren't able to pay off the equipment, but they could at least pay the power bill. If they couldn't pay the power bill, they would just shut down.

Okay check 18-03-2020, it says 0.07 for 1 THash/s, just one example, in 2020 good asics were around 70 th/s, check this article https://www.advancedmining.io/top-5-bitcoin-asic-mining-gear-for-2020/ , january 2020, profitability on that graph on january 2020 was 0.15 so was double of the bottom in 2020 on march 18, so in that article it said a 73th top of the food chain was receiving 10.50 usd per day, 8.50 usd was power cost and 2 usd was profit, that was double than march 18 2020, meaning, in march 2020 as profitability was 0.07 and january 0.15, meaning profitability in january was double of march meaning that 10.50 usd per day in march 2020 was 50% less meaning, 10.50 / 2 = 5.25 per day, power cost still 8.50$, so $8.50 minus $5.25 = negative profit of around $3.25 when talking about the best btc miner available in march 2020, imagine the worst miners. That is just one example of how bad mining profitability got in 2020 march, yes after that bullrun started in july 2020 with eth, btc only broke through in november 2020 and that was not the only bottom, we had more cases where it was negative profit using the best btc miners available and like I said before, imagine the average to bad btc miners.

well at 7 cent power an s17 in summer 2020 was on the edge of breakeven

right now at 7 cent power an s17 earns $5.90 and burns $3.50

as an s17 pro with good firmware can do 50th and burn 50kwatts a day.

so the farm clears 2.40 daily per s17pro  if the loans are paid and the building is owned.

this is not taking into account paying the help and fixing dead gear.
Lets argue 40 cents a unit so that s17 pro clears 2 bucks.

price would need to go to 21k and stay there. and the 7 cent power miner is at break even.

do we drop this low maybe we do.

[Coinfarm ventures]

price would need to go to 21k and stay there. and the 7 cent power miner is at break even.

do we drop this low maybe we do.

Whinstone or Marathon can probably keep operating at BTC prices as low as $12k, even though they have so many employees. However, their income statement would show a loss because it would account for the depreciation. I would think a medium-scale 1MW miner in the U.S. who pays 7 cent power can keep the doors open at $15k BTC or higher, even if they have a Bitmain S17 Pro, as long as they downclock it.

[Salamande]

btc crashed below electricity cost, so I'm waiting for that

I looked at this graph. Bitcoin mining revenue never dropped below the power cost, assuming 5¢/kWh, even with a Bitmain S9j ASIC with downclocked firmware 11 Th/s @ 750w. Mining farms were able to scrape by during the 2019-2020 bear market, especially if they had a more efficient Whatsminer M20S or Antminer S15/17. They weren't able to pay off the equipment, but they could at least pay the power bill. If they couldn't pay the power bill, they would just shut down.

Okay check 18-03-2020, it says 0.07 for 1 THash/s, just one example, in 2020 good asics were around 70 th/s, check this article https://www.advancedmining.io/top-5-bitcoin-asic-mining-gear-for-2020/ , january 2020, profitability on that graph on january 2020 was 0.15 so was double of the bottom in 2020 on march 18, so in that article it said a 73th top of the food chain was receiving 10.50 usd per day, 8.50 usd was power cost and 2 usd was profit, that was double than march 18 2020, meaning, in march 2020 as profitability was 0.07 and january 0.15, meaning profitability in january was double of march meaning that 10.50 usd per day in march 2020 was 50% less meaning, 10.50 / 2 = 5.25 per day, power cost still 8.50$, so $8.50 minus $5.25 = negative profit of around $3.25 when talking about the best btc miner available in march 2020, imagine the worst miners. That is just one example of how bad mining profitability got in 2020 march, yes after that bullrun started in july 2020 with eth, btc only broke through in november 2020 and that was not the only bottom, we had more cases where it was negative profit using the best btc miners available and like I said before, imagine the average to bad btc miners.

well at 7 cent power an s17 in summer 2020 was on the edge of breakeven

right now at 7 cent power an s17 earns $5.90 and burns $3.50

as an s17 pro with good firmware can do 50th and burn 50kwatts a day.

so the farm clears 2.40 daily per s17pro  if the loans are paid and the building is owned.

this is not taking into account paying the help and fixing dead gear.
Lets argue 40 cents a unit so that s17 pro clears 2 bucks.

price would need to go to 21k and stay there. and the 7 cent power miner is at break even.

do we drop this low maybe we do.

My guess is BTC will drop to previous ATH before the last bear market. So that would mean 20k$.

[arielbit]

btc crashed below electricity cost, so I'm waiting for that

I looked at this graph. Bitcoin mining revenue never dropped below the power cost, assuming 5¢/kWh, even with a Bitmain S9j ASIC with downclocked firmware 11 Th/s @ 750w. Mining farms were able to scrape by during the 2019-2020 bear market, especially if they had a more efficient Whatsminer M20S or Antminer S15/17. They weren't able to pay off the equipment, but they could at least pay the power bill. If they couldn't pay the power bill, they would just shut down.

Okay check 18-03-2020, it says 0.07 for 1 THash/s, just one example, in 2020 good asics were around 70 th/s, check this article https://www.advancedmining.io/top-5-bitcoin-asic-mining-gear-for-2020/ , january 2020, profitability on that graph on january 2020 was 0.15 so was double of the bottom in 2020 on march 18, so in that article it said a 73th top of the food chain was receiving 10.50 usd per day, 8.50 usd was power cost and 2 usd was profit, that was double than march 18 2020, meaning, in march 2020 as profitability was 0.07 and january 0.15, meaning profitability in january was double of march meaning that 10.50 usd per day in march 2020 was 50% less meaning, 10.50 / 2 = 5.25 per day, power cost still 8.50$, so $8.50 minus $5.25 = negative profit of around $3.25 when talking about the best btc miner available in march 2020, imagine the worst miners. That is just one example of how bad mining profitability got in 2020 march, yes after that bullrun started in july 2020 with eth, btc only broke through in november 2020 and that was not the only bottom, we had more cases where it was negative profit using the best btc miners available and like I said before, imagine the average to bad btc miners.

well at 7 cent power an s17 in summer 2020 was on the edge of breakeven

right now at 7 cent power an s17 earns $5.90 and burns $3.50

as an s17 pro with good firmware can do 50th and burn 50kwatts a day.

so the farm clears 2.40 daily per s17pro  if the loans are paid and the building is owned.

this is not taking into account paying the help and fixing dead gear.
Lets argue 40 cents a unit so that s17 pro clears 2 bucks.

price would need to go to 21k and stay there. and the 7 cent power miner is at break even.

do we drop this low maybe we do.

How about i add this to your scenario..

Price drop to 21k you are break even..then other miners shutdown rigs, hashrate go down/difficulty down then you should get more coins or profit BUT price go down to 14k and you are still at break even.

[adaseb]

I don’t think the difficulty will go down that much. Remember what happened to the difficulty during all the halvings? If memory serves me well they went down maybe for 1 or 2 retargets and then it went back up.

Even during bear markets the difficulty barely went down. The largest decrease I can remember is the China shutdown that occurred recently.

Basically the more price goes down… the less you will make. Price goes down by a lot but difficulty goes down slightly.

[Coinfarm ventures]

Price drop to 21k you are break even..then other miners shutdown rigs, hashrate go down/difficulty down then you should get more coins or profit BUT price go down to 14k and you are still at break even.

Even during late 2018 the network difficulty only fell by 25%, which was probably the farms that had a power cost > 10¢. Diff grew exponentially even during the bear market of 2015-2017, when BTC price stayed stagnant.

Difficulty this year is expected to keep increasing as the corporate mega-miners start building farms in the gigawatt range, thanks to Giga Chad. That farm alone will be a 10-15% increase over current diff levels, assuming network power usage is 15 GW, and considering they'll use the newest generation of ASICs. He already has a 500MW farm and owns 6-7% of the network hashrate!

These mega-corps can afford to mine at a loss for years. What they want is the Bitcoin; they don't care about fiat power bills. So difficulty will keep growing at 3+%/month, even during a bear market! And that is probably only because mega miners have trouble getting switchgear & transformers delivered. If we had no supply issues, it would probably be 6-7%/month growth.

I heard a few non-powered hydroelectric dams in western Pennsylvania are being retrofitted with generators. 100MW in total. Wait until another corp-o-mine discovers this trapped energy source.

[arielbit]

i think in previous bear markets there are mega farm/s that shut down due to bear market things...we'll see about these mega-corps farms, maybe we can see them fail too..hmmm what kind of bear market would that be? 

[Coinfarm ventures]

i think in previous bear markets there are mega farm/s that shut down due to bear market things...we'll see about these mega-corps farms, maybe we can see them fail too..hmmm what kind of bear market would that be? 

There were never as many corporate mines 3-4 years ago as there are now. Corporations can easily raise capital to continue mining even when they can only pay the power cost. If they go bankrupt with Chapter 11, the ASICs will simply change ownership to the creditors while they stay on the network. These corp-o-miners won't be able to even afford the cost of ripping all those ASICs out of the wall, fire selling them (if they can even find large enough buyers), then reneging on their energy supply contracts, let alone the depreciation recapture. When a corporate mine is built, it will never ever get liquidated.

I don't think BTC price will ever fall below $10k, so in that case, Whinstone / Marathon will continue operating while smaller sub-megawatt farms with no ability to raise capital go out of business. Even 10MW or so multi-million dollar farms with private investors are struggling right now. The U.S. will host 70% of global hashrate and it will mostly be operated by corporate miners. It turns out the ability to get capital, which is where U.S. corporations have an edge, is more important than power cost now.

[Metroid]

I don't think BTC price will ever fall below $10k

There still that cme gap below 10k at 9600 usd that was never hit and I said btc would hit 79k and then crash back to hit that cme gap, I said that when btc was 10k august 2020 and trolls were waiting btc to crash below 10k and hit 9.6k, anyway, not saying it will happen but I still believe it has 10% chance for that to happen. One should never underestimate the market, nobody thought btc would crash back to 4k from 14k in march 2020 due to the pandemic.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-dives-to-fill-cme-gap-amid-claim-new-all-time-highs-will-take-2-years

[arielbit]

I don't think BTC price will ever fall below $10k

There still that cme gap below 10k at 9600 usd that was never hit and I said btc would hit 79k and then crash back to hit that cme gap, I said that when btc was 10k august 2020 and trolls were waiting btc to crash below 10k and hit 9.6k, anyway, not saying it will happen but I still believe it has 10% chance for that to happen. One should never underestimate the market, nobody thought btc would crash back to 4k from 14k in march 2020 due to the pandemic.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-dives-to-fill-cme-gap-amid-claim-new-all-time-highs-will-take-2-years

yup.

with great lows/dips one can make life changing fortune, same with the spike at the top of the bull market.

[Metroid]

yup.

with great lows/dips one can make life changing fortune, same with the spike at the top of the bull market.

Coindesk quoted a troll saying btc would go to 600k on 2021 then now he said is going to crash to 8k, he held btc when he said was going to 600k then he sold and said would crash to 8k ehhe, trolls and their feelings. The whole bear market, bull market and pre bear market now, I have been pretty accurate, to be precise my accuracy was better than 99.9% of traders around the globe, if only I had done most of what I said, in this market, one needs to be patient to buy and to sell or vice versa. I'm still not buying yet, this will crash further.

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/05/24/guggenheims-minerd-says-bitcoin-will-drop-to-8k-we-checked-his-record/