First In Bitcoin History (or did it ever happen?)

[Lucius]

I remember 2014 being quite a dead zone and note that low there, kinda amazing.   The low was quite close to a prior high if I remember right because Im sure I used up BTC in the hundreds within that mindset, long time ago but relevant to now in that we probably mark out lows with some reference to prior highs.

2013 was the year when that big jump to over $1200 happened (December), but it only lasted 3 days after which there was a drop to about $700. 2014 was marked by a further decline in prices, which eventually resulted in some $300 in early 2015, and later even below $200, which remained until before the 2016 halving.

But it was a completely different time, because there was neither enough awareness about Bitcoin, nor were there institutional investors, funds, ETFs... History is somewhat repetitive, at least for those who believe in cycles and that after each halving we have a new ATH followed by a correction and a new phase of accumulation.

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[TheGreatPython]

nine candles in a row is the worst thing to happen to the bitcoin price right now but I hope there will be a change in the market next week and if we look at 1 hour time there are more green candles than red but this still shows the red candle seems to be stronger

It depends on whether you are a buyer or a seller, because the former do not mind that this trend continues so that they can accumulate even more BTC at the lowest possible price. The problem for the little man is that he doesn't have the extra money to invest in anything because he has fallen victim to inflation that has diminished the value of his money - and unfortunately Bitcoin hasn't helped him if he invested during the bull run hoping the price would reach at least $100k.

Change for the better next week? If you don't know about some super good news that isn't yet publicly known, don't hope for better than what we have now - it's much more likely to expect an even bigger drop, but it's a reality and you shouldn't make a tragedy out of it.

This is the thing about the candles and checking the charts. I agree that we do not have any information regarding what's going to happen, but many people forget that. Sure we have "some" understanding about what's going to happen, but that doesn't mean that it is 100% going to happen right now. This means that we are going to just live in a world where everything is uncertain and unknown.

However, the long term is fine because we believe that it is going to be a fine period and we are going to just buy as much as we can and focus on that as much as we can. That's not too bad neither because if the long term is up, whatever could happen meanwhile.

[STT]

But it was a completely different time, because there was neither enough awareness about Bitcoin, nor were there institutional investors, funds, ETFs

BTC was front page at that time like for example CNN, 1000 was an epic price.   You are probably correct many big companies werent involved but I'd say many had heard of it in some way.   Just the normal news they discussed BTC for 15 minutes, I remember being so surprised it was a national TV channel and so mainstream in that way.  I wont argue about usage because people talk about alot of things but never make the move but it had some percentage use not purely specialist interest as the origins had been.
  I know someone who got some BTC to pay a server hosting bill for his game server.  He rented for a while and left the balance till he remembered it in 2021

In terms of market pricing vs operations, I can remember Facebook IPO the price halved from 40 down to 20.  It was thought far too highly valued by many, a passing overhyped fad of course.    Right now people are writing BTC doomed, price fell wont recover etc.   there tends to be a repeat in these cycles of sentiment

[bittraffic]

Dow Jones is also having this 8 week losing streak so everything is down since last 2 months. The tech stocks are pretty cheap too so maybe all the Bitcoins traders kept selling the BTC to buy the tech stocks as they are all in discounted price. Or we are really all spending our cash to prepare for the food shortages, energy or health insurance. The obvious buyers of crypto these days are the same old bullish crypto guys the likes of Saylor.

If anyone confirms their observation of what possibly could happen in few days like dropping to $20K, everyone will jump out of this train. 1st week of June could still be red.

[Silberman]

Dow Jones is also having this 8 week losing streak so everything is down since last 2 months. The tech stocks are pretty cheap too so maybe all the Bitcoins traders kept selling the BTC to buy the tech stocks as they are all in discounted price. Or we are really all spending our cash to prepare for the food shortages, energy or health insurance. The obvious buyers of crypto these days are the same old bullish crypto guys the likes of Saylor.

If anyone confirms their observation of what possibly could happen in few days like dropping to $20K, everyone will jump out of this train. 1st week of June could still be red.

The truth is that there are simply too many negative factors that are affecting the market of bitcoin and this is why we have seen such a negative streak, still things are not as bad as we may think, the price is slowly becoming more stable and it seems unlikely we will go below the 25k support level, but still we need to be careful as we do not know if another coin which is high in the ranks could collapse like UST, which will bring the market down in a massive way again.

[Hypnosis00]

That was the first time I'd ever seen it on a weekly basis but if we check it in everyday movement, prices still moving high and low. But I'd never think it a hard way nor to think it was a sign of something worse as I respect how the market freely moves in different directions unpredictably. Might this is new and the first time in history, but I was really believing that Bitcoin and the crypto market won't fall bad just like before. Definitely, we can still see the uptrend momentum in a few days from now, we'd just be patient and keep positive.

[palle11]

the price is slowly becoming more stable and it seems unlikely we will go below the 25k support level, but still we need to be careful as we do not know if another coin which is high in the ranks could collapse like UST, which will bring the market down in a massive way again.

The price still around $29k and $30k and nobody is certain about the next level. I believe there is fear in the investment sentiment because of the reason you mentioned. I have seen some prediction bringing down price to $8k and $10 in this bear time. However, I don't believe stable coins are a factor for bitcoin bear.

[Lucius]

BTC was front page at that time like for example CNN, 1000 was an epic price.  

If you mean the US media then you are right, because I remember one TV show from Fox that at the time seemed to be quite strange to me, and in which Tim Draper talked about how 1 BTC in 3 years will be worth at least $10 000 - which 2014 was pretty brave to say. I don't remember reading anything about Bitcoin in my local media, and it was like that for years after that.

In terms of market pricing vs operations, I can remember Facebook IPO the price halved from 40 down to 20.  It was thought far too highly valued by many, a passing overhyped fad of course.    Right now people are writing BTC doomed, price fell wont recover etc.   there tends to be a repeat in these cycles of sentiment

In the short term, as people usually do, they can't react differently - because if you bought something for $50k, and today it's worth a little more than half that amount, it's hard to find a positive in all this if you don't think long term. And as for the media, they know that bad news sells much better, so I'm not surprised that they write negatively about Bitcoin - we've seen it all in the past.

[darkangel11]

I remember 2014 being quite a dead zone and note that low there, kinda amazing.   The low was quite close to a prior high if I remember right because Im sure I used up BTC in the hundreds within that mindset, long time ago but relevant to now in that we probably mark out lows with some reference to prior highs.

2013 was the year when that big jump to over $1200 happened (December), but it only lasted 3 days after which there was a drop to about $700. 2014 was marked by a further decline in prices, which eventually resulted in some $300 in early 2015, and later even below $200, which remained until before the 2016 halving.

But it was a completely different time, because there was neither enough awareness about Bitcoin, nor were there institutional investors, funds, ETFs... History is somewhat repetitive, at least for those who believe in cycles and that after each halving we have a new ATH followed by a correction and a new phase of accumulation.

I'd argue that the ETFs that we have now aren't any good for bitcoin. Futures trading is basically gambling where people bet money on stocks without having to buy them. They're not investors but gamblers and their gambling has nothing to do with the price of the assets unless they have friends in high places who can manipulate price like owners of exchanges who can create leverage out of thin air.


You take a highly leveraged exchange like bitmex and gain access to stats. Wait for a moment where the price range is thin and there's overleverage of one side taking place like Bitcoin is at a crucial low price where 70% people are long. Knowing the internal stats you know exactly how much coins is needed for a huge margin call. You tell that to your rich friends who lend you money and bet on futures to minimize their own exposure and take short positions. You use their and your own money to buy coins OTC and dump them on your exchange to squeeze the longs and you're all set.
Insider trading has been taking place on crypto exchanges for years.
If you knew something like this was possible wouldn't you try it out with your wealthy friends and take more money out of suckers without much risk?

Nowadays holders have more confidence in bitcoin which is why crashes are more shallow than they used to be but market manipulation takes places as it did and the number of red candles or length  of cycles is meaningless. You can be sure though that bitcoin is a cow for these people and they won't let it die. They will keep milking it for decades. A bear market can last for 3 months or 3 years but it will turn into a bull market when these people decide there's more money to be made squeezing shorts.

[Silberman]

the price is slowly becoming more stable and it seems unlikely we will go below the 25k support level, but still we need to be careful as we do not know if another coin which is high in the ranks could collapse like UST, which will bring the market down in a massive way again.

The price still around $29k and $30k and nobody is certain about the next level. I believe there is fear in the investment sentiment because of the reason you mentioned. I have seen some prediction bringing down price to $8k and $10 in this bear time. However, I don't believe stable coins are a factor for bitcoin bear.

While I do not expect a stable coin to collapse anytime soon and bring the market down again we cannot deny this is a possibility, for many years people have speculated this will be the fate of USDT, it has not collapsed yet but if the speculations about not having enough money to back their tokens is true and they are engaging in fractional reserve banking then sooner or later they will collapse, and when they do the effect this event will have on the market will be massive.

[GreatArkansas]

I am not sure if this is a good signal that the reversal will come very soon because I believe that it will not be always a red candle or always a dump. There could be some correction and reversal or just a correction and will continue dumping for long period. But, the good thing now is Bitcoin trading now above $30,000 so I am positive for Bitcoin now, hope it will continue to be stable.

[Lucius]

I'd argue that the ETFs that we have now aren't any good for bitcoin. Futures trading is basically gambling where people bet money on stocks without having to buy they. They're not investors but gamblers and their gambling has nothing to do with the price of the assets unless they have friends in high places who can manipulate price like owners of exchanges who can create leverage out of thin air.

I did not claim that such ETFs are good for Bitcoin, but that they just did not exist in the past and that they have some impact on the market nowadays. Let's say that today there are many more crypto gamblers who have at their disposal various ways (tools) to try to profit from Bitcoin.

As for the manipulators, I would agree that many of the influential people in that world are connected, and that they do various immoral things because at the end of the day, all that matters to them is profit. The entire crypto market is still below the levels of stocks, gold or anything else that is at those levels, which means that it is extremely volatile and completely exposed to manipulation.

Nowadays holders have more confidence in bitcoin which is why crashes are more shallow than they used to be but market manipulation takes places as it did and the number of red candles or length  of cycles is meaningless. You can be sure though that bitcoin is a cow for these people and they won't let it die. They will keep milking it for decades. A bear market can last for 3 months or 3 years but it will turn into a bull market when these people decide there's more money to be made squeezing shorts.

You may have seen the fact that 65% of BTC did not move in a period of 1 year, which would be in favor of the average investor learning something from the past. But big fish are still in a position to wait longer and in the end they are always the ones who profit the most. I just hope that in the process some ordinary people will succeed in achieving some of their goals, although nothing will change in the fact that big fish always eat small fish, nature is relentless here.

[ReiMomo]

I feel its an indication of a pump down the line in weeks. I dont remember if the same trend has earlier occured or not but when the trend moves alike, there will be a "U" turn facing upwards. Its said to be "hook" turn. So yes, its the right time to purchase as much as bitcoin we can as there might be a spike at any moment. Along with Bitcoin, other altcoins can be piled up now in you wallet.

[adaseb]

There is a high probability that this weeks candle will also be bearish. Currently it’s a neutral for the week. Most likely won’t get much action this weekend so it’ll close very close to a doji.

This is proof that you can’t take trades because on event that’s never took place before so it must be true. It can go even 15 red weekly candles before we get a green. Very bearish month.

[Fundamentals Of]

I've read a number of posts on social media about this first time occurrence in the history of Bitcoin's price. But rather than cause a negative sentiment, it seems it even sends a positive one. I think there is instead a build up of excitement and anticipation of what happens next. I for one look forward to the rebound. After these 8 red candles, there must follow a number of green ones. And I believe the green ones will be much longer than these red ones.

[LogitechMouse]

Yes it is the first in Bitcoin's history and to add it all up, we have seen 9 consecutive weeks of red candles in the Bitcoin Chart which extends the number of red candles. A new record .
Now the current weekly chart is in green candle but it's near to be a red one as well (currently it is an inverted hammer). Base on Wikipedia, here is the meaning of an inverted hammer:

The inverted hammer is a type of candlestick pattern found after a downtrend and is usually taken to be a trend-reversal signal

If this week's candle will turn as an inverted hammer then we might see a trend reversal but it's only a probability that it will happen. I'm a bit bearish with the market right now with what is happening globally but I think I will observe how will be this week's candle turn out. Will it be a green or a red one .

[darkangel11]

I did not claim that such ETFs are good for Bitcoin, but that they just did not exist in the past and that they have some impact on the market nowadays. Let's say that today there are many more crypto gamblers who have at their disposal various ways (tools) to try to profit from Bitcoin.

I agree and I did not try to contradict you about their impact on the market, just that the impact is largely negative. You could see that on the charts, just look for the date when the first ETF went online and you'll see what happened to bitcoin about 2 weeks later.

You may have seen the fact that 65% of BTC did not move in a period of 1 year, which would be in favor of the average investor learning something from the past. But big fish are still in a position to wait longer and in the end they are always the ones who profit the most. I just hope that in the process some ordinary people will succeed in achieving some of their goals, although nothing will change in the fact that big fish always eat small fish, nature is relentless here.

Data analysis by companies like blockware suggests the last time holders were selling was in Spring 2021 on the way to 60k and then it was all the same coins being recirculated.
Now, it looks like there's not much sell pressure but not many people want to buy either. Those who had money on the side bought a lot of coins below 40k and are out, while those who were panicking below 40k got out. Seems like we'll need new people to enter the market for it to move up and as long as there's fear of recession they won't come in numbers large enough to make impact.

It looks like we have 9 and possibly going to have 10 red weekly candles. This definitely has never happened before but the dumps were very small compared to previous ones.
What would you rather have, 10 red weeks where price falls 4% each week (40% total) or something like 2018 where we had 2 red week followed by a green one but we fell 30% in those 2 weeks then went up to recover half of the loss and then had another 2 red weeks where we fell 60% from the top of that green week, eventually losing about 70% in 5 weeks?

[Lucius]

I agree and I did not try to contradict you about their impact on the market, just that the impact is largely negative. You could see that on the charts, just look for the date when the first ETF went online and you'll see what happened to bitcoin about 2 weeks later.

The only ETF that we can expect to have a positive effect on the price to a greater extent may be the one in the US, of course the physical one that the SEC still does not want to approve. Yet all of these BTC ETFs, regardless of type, have a role to play if we consider that this is one of the ways Bitcoin is adapting to our society and becoming in some way legitimate among investors.

If we focus on the price we have today, then we could say that it is the result of everything that has happened since the beginning of 2009 until today, not necessarily only good, but also bad things.

Data analysis by companies like blockware suggests the last time holders were selling was in Spring 2021 on the way to 60k and then it was all the same coins being recirculated.
Now, it looks like there's not much sell pressure but not many people want to buy either. Those who had money on the side bought a lot of coins below 40k and are out, while those who were panicking below 40k got out. Seems like we'll need new people to enter the market for it to move up and as long as there's fear of recession they won't come in numbers large enough to make impact.

People are convinced that the crypto winter has begun and that there will be no new bull run until after the next halving - and inflation that is realistically between 10-20% does not encourage most to invest in the long run in something considered risky. I don't think the problem is that there are no new investors to buy BTC for the first time, but that people generally don't have the extra money to invest somewhere. The period of cheap money for ordinary people and institutions is obviously over, now we will return everything we got with interest.

 

It looks like we have 9 and possibly going to have 10 red weekly candles. This definitely has never happened before but the dumps were very small compared to previous ones.
What would you rather have, 10 red weeks where price falls 4% each week (40% total) or something like 2018 where we had 2 red week followed by a green one but we fell 30% in those 2 weeks then went up to recover half of the loss and then had another 2 red weeks where we fell 60% from the top of that green week, eventually losing about 70% in 5 weeks?

Ultimately (although some will disagree), the past repeats itself in a similar way, after halving followed by ATH then correction, and a period of accumulation it all comes down to everyone waiting for the next opportunity to profit again. What is still uncertain now is whether we have hit rock bottom or it will only happen in the coming months?