How bad can it get?

[Metroid]

Ethereum supply = 6 x Bitcoin supply.

1 / 6 = 0.16

Ultimately I feel like Ethereum should be 0.16 of Bitcoin, and potentially a higher ratio because of Ethereum's influence on the crypto space compared to Bitcoin and the fact that it might become deflationary after the Merge. So in my mind Ethereum is undervalued, not overvalued.

You have to remember as more ETH staking occurs it provides more stability in a crash. When Ethereum is locked up in staking it reduces panic selling. So forget about old trends. Bitcoin has been losing market share to altcoins in this crash. And one reason for that is staking.

https://bitcoinist.com/ethereum-supply-staking-contract-10-milestone/

Around 12 Million ETH Is Now In The Ethereum 2.0 Deposit Contract

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the ETH staking rate has observed further surge recently, taking the metric’s value to 10% of the total supply.

In case anyone’s not aware of what “staking” is, it’s best to take a look at the “proof of stake” (PoS) consensus system first.

In cryptocurrencies using the PoS framework, network validators (called the stakers) need to lock in a minimum amount of the crypto into a contract (32 ETH in case of Ethereum) to participate in the consensus system.

The network then randomly chooses one of the stakers to sign the next transaction (stakers with the higher staked amount have a better chance of being chosen).

Almost everything you said is true but pay attention, those locked eth will be unlocked and when once they are mass panic to sell as fast as possible will happen and that is when eth will crash a lot, possible prior the next bullrun, who knows but it will happen, yeah it could be good now because people feel safe those locked eth cant be sold but that is a double edged sword. It's not only eth, exchanges are manipulating everything to avoid a huge crash and that is not good for the market as a whole. It might be good for now but the trust is being broken, long term of what they are doing will be nasty.

About those 32 eth, eth scammer dev team came up with this 32 eth to be staked number, know what that means? even eth dev scam team already set eth price to btc and that is 32 eth, that is right, 32 eth = 1 btc, has always been and that is what they are planning to do long term and trying to hold that line but we know as eth supply is infinite and btc is not then will come a time where eth will depeg from those 32 eth = 1 btc and will crash meaning, 33 eth = btc then after a while, 34 eth = 1 btc and so on and that cant be prevented or avoided.

[bitquad]

Ethereum supply = 6 x Bitcoin supply.

1 / 6 = 0.16

Ultimately I feel like Ethereum should be 0.16 of Bitcoin, and potentially a higher ratio because of Ethereum's influence on the crypto space compared to Bitcoin and the fact that it might become deflationary after the Merge. So in my mind Ethereum is undervalued, not overvalued.

You have to remember as more ETH staking occurs it provides more stability in a crash. When Ethereum is locked up in staking it reduces panic selling. So forget about old trends. Bitcoin has been losing market share to altcoins in this crash. And one reason for that is staking.

https://bitcoinist.com/ethereum-supply-staking-contract-10-milestone/

Around 12 Million ETH Is Now In The Ethereum 2.0 Deposit Contract

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the ETH staking rate has observed further surge recently, taking the metric’s value to 10% of the total supply.

In case anyone’s not aware of what “staking” is, it’s best to take a look at the “proof of stake” (PoS) consensus system first.

In cryptocurrencies using the PoS framework, network validators (called the stakers) need to lock in a minimum amount of the crypto into a contract (32 ETH in case of Ethereum) to participate in the consensus system.

The network then randomly chooses one of the stakers to sign the next transaction (stakers with the higher staked amount have a better chance of being chosen).

Almost everything you said is true but pay attention, those locked eth will be unlocked and when once they are mass panic to sell as fast as possible will happen and that is when eth will crash a lot, possible prior the next bullrun, who knows but it will happen, yeah it could be good now because people feel safe those locked eth cant be sold but that is a double edged sword. It's not only eth, exchanges are manipulating everything to avoid a huge crash and that is not good for the market as a whole. It might be good for now but the trust is being broken, long term of what they are doing will be nasty.

About those 32 eth, eth scammer dev team came up with this 32 eth to be staked number, know what that means? even eth dev scam team already set eth price to btc and that is 32 eth, that is right, 32 eth = 1 btc, has always been and that is what they are planning to do long term and trying to hold that line but we know as eth supply is infinite and btc is not then will come a time where eth will depeg from those 32 eth = 1 btc and will crash meaning, 33 eth = btc then after a while, 34 eth = 1 btc and so on and that cant be prevented or avoided.

What's your source for the 32 ETH = 1 BTC price? That makes no sense at all. Initially they set a number of 500 ETH per validator. That was then lowered to 32 ETH because 500 ETH was too steep. Some people think even 32 ETH per validator is too steep. It had nothing to do with 1 BTC.

Of course now many people have been staking in pools with Coinbase,  Blockfi and unfortunately Celsius. We'll have to see what happens there.

Don't you think staked ETH would be unlocked gradually in case of a sell off? If interest rates rise after the merge why would you un-stake? And why selloff ETH to then incur a capital gains tax? Don't you think ETH stakers are long term investors as opposed to day traders?

Here’s why staking 32 ETH isn’t an easy proposition

https://eng.ambcrypto.com/eth-2-0-staking-proposition/

[philipma1957]

Ethereum supply = 6 x Bitcoin supply.

1 / 6 = 0.16

Ultimately I feel like Ethereum should be 0.16 of Bitcoin, and potentially a higher ratio because of Ethereum's influence on the crypto space compared to Bitcoin and the fact that it might become deflationary after the Merge. So in my mind Ethereum is undervalued, not overvalued.

You have to remember as more ETH staking occurs it provides more stability in a crash. When Ethereum is locked up in staking it reduces panic selling. So forget about old trends. Bitcoin has been losing market share to altcoins in this crash. And one reason for that is staking.

https://bitcoinist.com/ethereum-supply-staking-contract-10-milestone/

Around 12 Million ETH Is Now In The Ethereum 2.0 Deposit Contract

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the ETH staking rate has observed further surge recently, taking the metric’s value to 10% of the total supply.

In case anyone’s not aware of what “staking” is, it’s best to take a look at the “proof of stake” (PoS) consensus system first.

In cryptocurrencies using the PoS framework, network validators (called the stakers) need to lock in a minimum amount of the crypto into a contract (32 ETH in case of Ethereum) to participate in the consensus system.

The network then randomly chooses one of the stakers to sign the next transaction (stakers with the higher staked amount have a better chance of being chosen).

Almost everything you said is true but pay attention, those locked eth will be unlocked and when once they are mass panic to sell as fast as possible will happen and that is when eth will crash a lot, possible prior the next bullrun, who knows but it will happen, yeah it could be good now because people feel safe those locked eth cant be sold but that is a double edged sword. It's not only eth, exchanges are manipulating everything to avoid a huge crash and that is not good for the market as a whole. It might be good for now but the trust is being broken, long term of what they are doing will be nasty.

About those 32 eth, eth scammer dev team came up with this 32 eth to be staked number, know what that means? even eth dev scam team already set eth price to btc and that is 32 eth, that is right, 32 eth = 1 btc, has always been and that is what they are planning to do long term and trying to hold that line but we know as eth supply is infinite and btc is not then will come a time where eth will depeg from those 32 eth = 1 btc and will crash meaning, 33 eth = btc then after a while, 34 eth = 1 btc and so on and that cant be prevented or avoided.

What's your source for the 32 ETH = 1 BTC price? That makes no sense at all. Initially they set a number of 500 ETH per validator. That was then lowered to 32 ETH because 500 ETH was too steep. Some people think even 32 ETH per validator is too steep. It had nothing to do with 1 BTC.

Of course now many people have been staking in pools with Coinbase,  Blockfi and unfortunately Celsius. We'll have to see what happens there.

Don't you think staked ETH would be unlocked gradually in case of a sell off? If interest rates rise after the merge why would you un-stake? And why selloff ETH to then incur a capital gains tax? Don't you think ETH stakers are long term investors as opposed to day traders?

Here’s why staking 32 ETH isn’t an easy proposition

https://eng.ambcrypto.com/eth-2-0-staking-proposition/

fall of 2020 the lated is kind of dated

[Za1n]

Below 10K for BTC is the time to start investing if you want to target the next bull cycle down the road in a couple years or more.

Doge is already at the Buy price since it went below 10cents and really getting worthwhile @ 5cents and below if you want to accumulate as well for the next cycle.

Yes, sub $10k BTC is the time to buy I think we have a few more months to get there, perhaps end of 22 early 23.

IMHO Doge is still sky high at 10 cents, or even 5 cents, better to wait until closer to 1 cent or even under.

And to the OP, just because you have mining rigs does not mean you need to use them. As a long time miner I have in previous bear markers shut down my rigs and just bought coins directly with the money I would have sent off to my power company. If the cost of mining coins is more than you can pay for them directly, do not feel you *must* mine.

[Metroid]

Yes, sub $10k BTC is the time to buy I think we have a few more months to get there, perhaps end of 22 early 23.

IMHO Doge is still sky high at 10 cents, or even 5 cents, better to wait until closer to 1 cent or even under.

And to the OP, just because you have mining rigs does not mean you need to use them. As a long time miner I have in previous bear markers shut down my rigs and just bought coins directly with the money I would have sent off to my power company. If the cost of mining coins is more than you can pay for them directly, do not feel you *must* mine.

I always said that btc will find its bottom around september 2022 to march 2023, right now btc is still overpriced. As it goes altcoins and everything will keep crashing, people need money to pay bills or buy things, so they will keep selling, selling pressure is very high on bear market, but remember this is not bear market yet, this is pre bear market. The worse has yet to come.

[Boriss]

After we enter recession in full, somewhere after this winter we are probably hitting 4-7K again.
Asic miners will be cheaper then ever and GPU mining long gone this time, if that will be a thing again remain to see, I do not expect to see so big price jump to use GPU on any coins currently on the market.

 

[Nighthog]

After we enter recession in full, somewhere after this winter we are probably hitting 4-7K again.
Asic miners will be cheaper then ever and GPU mining long gone this time, if that will be a thing again remain to see, I do not expect to see so big price jump to use GPU on any coins currently on the market.

 

GPU mining will not go anywhere, there are always new coins to shift your hashrate into with the hardware but profitability will vary with time. Might now be as profitable as it was this cycle again ever again though.

New hardware is always be more efficient and markets get saturated with new entrants and it will squeeze out all those who can't afford it. Driving costs up & profitability down.
It will reach equilibrium with time but it wall also mean only hobbyists are into it or full scale industrialists.

There will not be room for small ventures much longer unless you have other incomes to subsidize your mining costs with electricity etc from elsewhere.

[Boriss]

After we enter recession in full, somewhere after this winter we are probably hitting 4-7K again.
Asic miners will be cheaper then ever and GPU mining long gone this time, if that will be a thing again remain to see, I do not expect to see so big price jump to use GPU on any coins currently on the market.

 

GPU mining will not go anywhere, there are always new coins to shift your hashrate into with the hardware but profitability will vary with time. Might now be as profitable as it was this cycle again ever again though.

New hardware is always be more efficient and markets get saturated with new entrants and it will squeeze out all those who can't afford it. Driving costs up & profitability down.
It will reach equilibrium with time but it wall also mean only hobbyists are into it or full scale industrialists.

There will not be room for small ventures much longer unless you have other incomes to subsidize your mining costs with electricity etc from elsewhere.

 
This is "wisdom" that can be heard  from crypto youtubers that are basically living from equipment they got from companies and or a huge discounts for equipment they buy with their money.

This bear market will not be the same as previous cycles so don't look for any patterns regarding coins or equipment.
Positive wave will eventually come but will it be high enough to cover all off the burned land remains to see.

People who think to copy paste 2018-2020 period and use same GPU mining strategy for cycle  2022-2025 could be crushed heavily.
To run something as a business for few years month after month in red is not a business but gambling.
Every gamble can be Win or Lose, but if you gamble time after time eventually you go home empty pockets.

Safer bet would be to invest in BTC after next big dip sub $10K









 

[Coinfarm ventures]

Safer bet would be to invest in BTC after next big dip sub $10K

How is that not a gamble too? At least with video cards, the investment can only lose half of it's value.

[Boriss]

Safer bet would be to invest in BTC after next big dip sub $10K

How is that not a gamble too? At least with video cards, the investment can only lose half of it's value.

Maybe I formulated that sentence wrong, I meant to say that if you want to put some money in crypto you can drop same amount of money with lees energy and time if you buy the coin in the first place.


We know how BTC story goes, only 1% of human mankind using it currently, at the same time flow of BTC is lower and lower after every halving, by the end of  this year we should have some new regulating laws across EU that will finally make path for corporate money to go in BTC full speed ahead not only dip in toe finger but completely. That looks as something worth investing from the current perspective, if path stays clear from obstructions from governments.




Video cards can lose only half?
It can lose much more if you buy at the top of mining cycle, and sell in the bear market after new generation goes on the shelf + price of electricity

Keep in mind that you cannot expect same pattern like we had with Nvidia 10xx and AMD 5xx, 4xx in this cycle where people sold old stuff higher then they paid them in 2017-2018.
I hear a lot of noise from youtubers about accumulating cards and sell them on new cycle, that seems like using last cycle pattern that could easily be complete wrong path especially if asic mining prevail completely.




 

[0verseer]

Safer bet would be to invest in BTC after next big dip sub $10K

How is that not a gamble too? At least with video cards, the investment can only lose half of it's value.

snip

I think Coinfarm ventures meant the investment can only lose half' because the overall cost isn't just the total value of the GPUs and rigs but also from the money made back from ETH mining. I know GPUs now cost half of it in early 2022. Used GPU is usually priced around 50-70% of a new one if it still has the warranty. So anyone invested in early 2022, their investment value right now:  
_ GPUs = 50-70% price of the new GPU now.
_ Around 6 months of profit from ETH mining.
That would easily cover over half of the price of GPUs back in early 2022, if not more.

[FP91G]

There are a lot of video cards in mining, so even manufacturers are postponing the sale of new models, because the secondary market is crowded. For video cards to be in demand, a new coin is needed, and there are no such coins yet. Ethereum mining will end and the price of other coins may fall in a bear market, then mining on video cards will be boring.

[cryptosize]

GPU mining will never die. ETH might die if the PoS transition fails.

[adaseb]

There are a lot of video cards in mining, so even manufacturers are postponing the sale of new models, because the secondary market is crowded. For video cards to be in demand, a new coin is needed, and there are no such coins yet. Ethereum mining will end and the price of other coins may fall in a bear market, then mining on video cards will be boring.

Yeah it’ll be 2015 all over again. GPU mining was so boring and unprofitable that i switched to Bitcoin ASICs because there was profits there while with GPUs there wasn’t.

There were more POW coins then, much more than today. However the miner supply and the low market cap made them a waste of time to mine prettt much. Dash was probably #1 POW coin then, however the profits weren’t that great.

Same will happen now most likely.

[Boriss]

This time it will be much worse, because people are under the impression that they will mine 2-3 years in red and then resurface in the next bull run, that will probably be the case with BTC but not with other coins, maybe one in a thousand.

[FP91G]

There are a lot of video cards in mining, so even manufacturers are postponing the sale of new models, because the secondary market is crowded. For video cards to be in demand, a new coin is needed, and there are no such coins yet. Ethereum mining will end and the price of other coins may fall in a bear market, then mining on video cards will be boring.

Yeah it’ll be 2015 all over again. GPU mining was so boring and unprofitable that i switched to Bitcoin ASICs because there was profits there while with GPUs there wasn’t.

There were more POW coins then, much more than today. However the miner supply and the low market cap made them a waste of time to mine prettt much. Dash was probably #1 POW coin then, however the profits weren’t that great.

Same will happen now most likely.

In 2015, asics did not have a consumption of 3 kilowatts, and they could be used at home. I even remember silent models.
But modern asics consume a lot and are noisy. They are not suitable for most miners.

[arielbit]

There are a lot of video cards in mining, so even manufacturers are postponing the sale of new models, because the secondary market is crowded. For video cards to be in demand, a new coin is needed, and there are no such coins yet. Ethereum mining will end and the price of other coins may fall in a bear market, then mining on video cards will be boring.

Yeah it’ll be 2015 all over again. GPU mining was so boring and unprofitable that i switched to Bitcoin ASICs because there was profits there while with GPUs there wasn’t.

There were more POW coins then, much more than today. However the miner supply and the low market cap made them a waste of time to mine prettt much. Dash was probably #1 POW coin then, however the profits weren’t that great.

Same will happen now most likely.

In 2015, asics did not have a consumption of 3 kilowatts, and they could be used at home. I even remember silent models.
But modern asics consume a lot and are noisy. They are not suitable for most miners.

3kw miner is just about right for 1 20A breaker with 1 outlet..home "minimal" miner will just manage 1 equipment.

[FP91G]

There are a lot of video cards in mining, so even manufacturers are postponing the sale of new models, because the secondary market is crowded. For video cards to be in demand, a new coin is needed, and there are no such coins yet. Ethereum mining will end and the price of other coins may fall in a bear market, then mining on video cards will be boring.

Yeah it’ll be 2015 all over again. GPU mining was so boring and unprofitable that i switched to Bitcoin ASICs because there was profits there while with GPUs there wasn’t.

There were more POW coins then, much more than today. However the miner supply and the low market cap made them a waste of time to mine prettt much. Dash was probably #1 POW coin then, however the profits weren’t that great.

Same will happen now most likely.

In 2015, asics did not have a consumption of 3 kilowatts, and they could be used at home. I even remember silent models.
But modern asics consume a lot and are noisy. They are not suitable for most miners.

3kw miner is just about right for 1 20A breaker with 1 outlet..home "minimal" miner will just manage 1 equipment.

Until the neighbors complain about the noise...

[arielbit]

There are a lot of video cards in mining, so even manufacturers are postponing the sale of new models, because the secondary market is crowded. For video cards to be in demand, a new coin is needed, and there are no such coins yet. Ethereum mining will end and the price of other coins may fall in a bear market, then mining on video cards will be boring.

Yeah it’ll be 2015 all over again. GPU mining was so boring and unprofitable that i switched to Bitcoin ASICs because there was profits there while with GPUs there wasn’t.

There were more POW coins then, much more than today. However the miner supply and the low market cap made them a waste of time to mine prettt much. Dash was probably #1 POW coin then, however the profits weren’t that great.

Same will happen now most likely.

In 2015, asics did not have a consumption of 3 kilowatts, and they could be used at home. I even remember silent models.
But modern asics consume a lot and are noisy. They are not suitable for most miners.

3kw miner is just about right for 1 20A breaker with 1 outlet..home "minimal" miner will just manage 1 equipment.

Until the neighbors complain about the noise...

LOL, yeah, fuck them..apartment(large room type) maybe..but for houses that does not share a wall or walls, i think it is good enough.

a storage room or basement will make it quiet enough for a home occupant, unless it is almost as loud as a hammer drill, drilling through cement then yeah it is noisy.

[FP91G]

There are a lot of video cards in mining, so even manufacturers are postponing the sale of new models, because the secondary market is crowded. For video cards to be in demand, a new coin is needed, and there are no such coins yet. Ethereum mining will end and the price of other coins may fall in a bear market, then mining on video cards will be boring.

Yeah it’ll be 2015 all over again. GPU mining was so boring and unprofitable that i switched to Bitcoin ASICs because there was profits there while with GPUs there wasn’t.

There were more POW coins then, much more than today. However the miner supply and the low market cap made them a waste of time to mine prettt much. Dash was probably #1 POW coin then, however the profits weren’t that great.

Same will happen now most likely.

In 2015, asics did not have a consumption of 3 kilowatts, and they could be used at home. I even remember silent models.
But modern asics consume a lot and are noisy. They are not suitable for most miners.

3kw miner is just about right for 1 20A breaker with 1 outlet..home "minimal" miner will just manage 1 equipment.

Until the neighbors complain about the noise...

LOL, yeah, fuck them..apartment(large room type) maybe..but for houses that does not share a wall or walls, i think it is good enough.

a storage room or basement will make it quiet enough for a home occupant, unless it is almost as loud as a hammer drill, drilling through cement then yeah it is noisy.

My friend in the village has ASICs in the garage. His plot of land is more than 20 acres, but neighbors hear this noise at night. Asics are very noisy. He does not want to spend money on expensive soundproofing and ventilation. Even 5 ASICs are already a problem in a private house, you yourself will be bothered by the noise.