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Question: Was $17.5K the low or price will go lower?
$17.5K was the bottom
Price will go to $14K
Price will go to $12K
Price will go to $10K
Price will go below $10K
Not sure, just hodling

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Author Topic: Was $17.5K the low?  (Read 906 times)
buwaytress
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July 13, 2022, 01:41:51 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #81

With everyone expecting this negative effect, there's a good chance it's already been priced in imo. In the same context of "buy the rumour, sell the news", then bears appear to have already "sold the rumour", the question is whether they will then "buy the news" as it were. It would be very bullish if when this negative news arrives Bitcoin doesn't dump afterwards, that much is sure.

Know I already responded to this but seems like the pricing in for US CPI fell short of actual results. 9.1% was the official figure an hour ago, highest in 40 years, and most of the market priced in 8.8% so of course BTC lost quite a bit immediately. A bit frustrating to take 2 steps forward and 1 step back, and the key is that they actually seemed to have fudged the figures as much as possible and still ended up with a higher than expected rate.

Already seeing the half rate interest hike due in 2 weeks now upgraded to 0.75... so expect more of that buying the rumour to happen now. And if the Fed gets even more aggressive (CPI will certainly tempt them) we have to strap in for worse.

Seem to keep reaching bottom but the actual news just keeps getting worse. Fully expecting to test 18k again. Of course, all this is short term. Just wish it wasn't so painful =)

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July 13, 2022, 02:49:08 PM
 #82

With everyone expecting this negative effect, there's a good chance it's already been priced in imo. In the same context of "buy the rumour, sell the news", then bears appear to have already "sold the rumour", the question is whether they will then "buy the news" as it were. It would be very bullish if when this negative news arrives Bitcoin doesn't dump afterwards, that much is sure.

Know I already responded to this but seems like the pricing in for US CPI fell short of actual results. 9.1% was the official figure an hour ago, highest in 40 years, and most of the market priced in 8.8% so of course BTC lost quite a bit immediately. A bit frustrating to take 2 steps forward and 1 step back, and the key is that they actually seemed to have fudged the figures as much as possible and still ended up with a higher than expected rate.

Despite dropping -6% within an hour (as you put it, CPI wasn't fully priced in it seems), we're now only -2% down on the 4hr and holding $19K level support for now, so the news doesn't look that bad to me:



Obviously in the mid to long-term it doesn't look good what so ever, we're now establishing a bear flag targeting much lower levels if it confirms with a breakdown below support, but considering how this is supposed to be very bearish for Bitcoin, currently it looks mildly bearish as support levels are holding (to reiterate, for now at least). -2% within 4 hours isn't that bad for Bitcoin given the bear trend imo.

Already seeing the half rate interest hike due in 2 weeks now upgraded to 0.75... so expect more of that buying the rumour to happen now. And if the Fed gets even more aggressive (CPI will certainly tempt them) we have to strap in for worse.

This seems like it will be the more relevant news, and what many are waiting for (as opposed to CPI numbers). Agree strapping in may very well be required in the very near future.

Seem to keep reaching bottom but the actual news just keeps getting worse. Fully expecting to test 18k again. Of course, all this is short term. Just wish it wasn't so painful =)

To me, in the short-term, still looks like we can re-test $21K, even $23K, before eventually breaking down much lower. But alas we'll see.

(Since typing we are now only -1% on the 4hr)

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wxa7115
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July 15, 2022, 01:56:52 PM
 #83

Despite my conviction that we are in a pure speculative market, I still believe in the use of indicators to aid my navigation of the market like sailors their compasses. TA is still a vital part of trading for me.
This is a nice way to put it, people get obsessed about the idea of the perfect system in which they never lose a single trade and they are always earning money, TA is just a guiding tool and nothing more, and just as in the example you give sailors used very rudimentary tools back in the day to find their way over a journey that lasted for months and they still got to their desired destination.

And TA is the same, maybe we will have some false signals along the way but if you follow your strategy close enough then it is just a matter of time until you will be able to make profits even during this bear market.

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July 15, 2022, 02:29:24 PM
 #84

~
but if you follow your strategy close enough then it is just a matter of time until you will be able to make profits even during this bear market.
That's true. It's the reason traders are advised to stick to a system that works for them. Don't jump from one trading system to another. Find a system and then hone it and get something close to a perfect handling of it, bearing in mind that there's no holy grail anywhere when it comes to trading. Stick to that system. Consistency breeds confidence and that should be a watch word for every trader. By being consistent, traders can easily have a handle on their trades.

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July 15, 2022, 11:28:13 PM
 #85

Despite my conviction that we are in a pure speculative market, I still believe in the use of indicators to aid my navigation of the market like sailors their compasses. TA is still a vital part of trading for me.

TA is very important in trading.  Just as you stated, just like a compass to sailors, TA directs traders and pinpoint entry point and exit point in trading.  It is really essential knowledge to acquire.  It is best to partner with fundamental analysis since there is no perfect system but complementing methods do exist.



About the Bitcoin market, some analyst states that it is highly unlikely for BTC to fall below $17.5k  as long as the resistance @ $19k is not broken, but if it did, we have a possibility of witnessing a $14k below BTC.
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July 15, 2022, 11:58:15 PM
Last edit: June 11, 2023, 11:45:09 PM by STT
 #86

Very good action today to indicate positive BTC price progression.  I would hope at least we continue with positive trajectory for this weekend and build some leeway for any sell occurring next week.
   There was some hesitation starting more frequently at 20.5k and around the MA, note the pins and sideways drift but resolving above the week and monthly moving averages is worth taking as a positive vs the quite severe swerve off course of 17.5k    It helps that Dollar weakened today but also thats why I expect further tests in future before the OP idea 'the low' is answered.



Sideways from here would be fine and then later hope price is also able to beat the prior recent high and build higher on a regular basis.


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July 16, 2022, 10:24:46 AM
Last edit: September 10, 2023, 12:58:58 PM by dragonvslinux
 #87

Very good action today to indicate positive BTC price progression.  I would hope at least we continue with positive trajectory for this weekend and build some leeway for any sell occurring next week.
   There was some hesitation starting more frequently at 20.5k and around the MA, note the pins and sideways drift but resolving above the week and monthly moving averages is worth taking as a positive vs the quite severe swerve off course of 17.5k    It helps that Dollar weakened today but also thats why I expect further tests in future before the OP idea 'the low' is answered.



I agree price is looking positive in the short-term. What happens around $23K (top of the bear flag channel) if it get's there again will be another story I think. This would be the second proper re-test of the 200WMA as well as the 50 Day MA that is now around this price. Last time price saw the 50 Day MA was during the rejection in April around $42.5K, so this will be a key barrier to break for longer-term upwards price movements.

So far price is following the bear flag fractal that I drew a couple of days ago, while naturally facing some short-term rejection from the mid-level of the bear channel:


Sideways from here would be fine and then later hope price is also able to beat the prior recent high and build higher on a regular basis.

I think a bit sideways would be ok, but too much would see price lose momentum and return to support levels imo. Failure to break $21K would only confirm a lower high and confirm weakness.

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July 16, 2022, 11:35:22 AM
 #88


The first thing I do while looking at chart(s) is to check the timeframe. Once I don't see that, I can't fully grasp what is been said there. The easiest way to cheat with a chart and make it look like price has long gone far is to present a  price action (PA) on 1m/5ms or 15ms TF. It makes it look like there's a nice ride, especially if PA is headed in a particular direction. Anything short of 1hr TF for entry and 4hrs/Daily for guage isn't for me. OP, what's your TF in that chart. Would you mind telling? Again, what MA setting is in orange colour that the candle just crossed?

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July 16, 2022, 12:06:12 PM
Last edit: September 10, 2023, 12:58:47 PM by dragonvslinux
 #89


The first thing I do while looking at chart(s) is to check the timeframe. Once I don't see that, I can't fully grasp what is been said there. The easiest way to cheat with a chart and make it look like price has long gone far is to present a  price action (PA) on 1m/5ms or 15ms TF. It makes it look like there's a nice ride, especially if PA is headed in a particular direction. Anything short of 1hr TF for entry and 4hrs/Daily for guage isn't for me. OP, what's your TF in that chart. Would you mind telling? Again, what MA setting is in orange colour that the candle just crossed?

I agree I'm not a fan of charts that don't present the time-frame, or at minimum have a time-frame at the X-axis. Anyway, I'm fairly certain it's the 4hr chart as the MAs that are crossing are the 50 & 200.

So the orange line is the 200 MA and the other (teal?) is the 50 MA. However it's worth noting that since this cross-over, both the MAs are now trending downwards (bearish) while previously the 50 MA was flat (neutral) even if price remains above them (bullish) and they have bull-crossed as it were. Realistically the 50 MA would need to flatten or trend higher for confirmation of a short-term trend change:



By the looks of it they will easily cross back over (bear-cross) based on their current trajectories if price falls much below them, which is what happened in early June.

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July 16, 2022, 01:57:53 PM
 #90



Anyway, I'm fairly certain it's the 4hr chart as the MAs that are crossing are the 50 & 200...

However it's worth noting that since this cross-over, both the MAs are now trending downwards (bearish) while previously the 50 MA was flat (neutral) even if price remains above them (bullish) and they have bull-crossed as it were. Realistically the 50 MA would need to flatten or trend higher for confirmation of a short-term trend change:
Thanks for your time and analysis. It shows how deep you're into trading. I love that. The crossover and recross of the MAs is the major reason I don't use them as entry or exit signals. They always repaint. I don't rely on indicators that repaint or lag behind. If anything I set the MAs I'm using to a higher figure for judging trend change, but not for taking trades. Relying on MAs to take trades leaves you in confusion because it can seamlessly recross and make your initial position invalid. Of course, I believe there are traders who are profitable using it but certainly not for me.

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July 16, 2022, 08:26:27 PM
 #91

I wouldnt post a giant chart every time because you all have the BTC chart available, we arent discussing a hundred different tokens just this one price so I expect most people to have checked the chart that day probably multiple times.   Shape and characterizing the movement is all thats needed though on Sundays I think full chart and weekly bars is best used

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dragonvslinux (OP)
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July 16, 2022, 08:43:05 PM
 #92

I wouldnt post a giant chart every time because you all have the BTC chart available, we arent discussing a hundred different tokens just this one price so I expect most people to have checked the chart that day probably multiple times.   Shape and characterizing the movement is all thats needed though on Sundays I think full chart and weekly bars is best used

I think you've assumed wrong here, that people check the price multiple times, but more relevantly that they are using moving averages, especially the same moving averages as you are. Someone was simply wanting to know what the lines meant, so I thought best to explain it to them with a full sized chart so they could see for themselves. If you don't appreciate it, then simply scroll past it...

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July 17, 2022, 06:10:01 AM
 #93

Nothing is impossible. Because BTC went to $17.5k during the bearish period and has come back from there to stay between $20k and $21k. Investors are yet to regain full confidence, but if there is no major negative news in crypto, this could be the highest dip at in this session.
Yesterday's and today's current positions provide somewhat positive guidance. I think buying this position from $17.5k will not have any major negative impact. Since we take it as long term investment.

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July 18, 2022, 09:48:46 PM
 #94

Nothing is impossible. Because BTC went to $17.5k during the bearish period and has come back from there to stay between $20k and $21k. Investors are yet to regain full confidence, but if there is no major negative news in crypto, this could be the highest dip at in this session.
Yesterday's and today's current positions provide somewhat positive guidance. I think buying this position from $17.5k will not have any major negative impact. Since we take it as long term investment.
That's normal that the price comes back to a higher level because there are also people that buys when they saw the price are dumping. Price getting stable on the current level would mean that many are not yet interested to sell because they think the value is too low but it wasn't bad for someone that wants to make a little profit and use the money for something more important.

I think the price can still dip even if there's no negative news, the same when there's an increase, it can also happen without a positive news but in the event the price falls to 17.5k, it will then be featured in the news and many will consider this as a negative news.
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July 18, 2022, 10:32:57 PM
 #95

It looks like $23k to $26k to be the next resistance levels. Users who have been holding can close the position if it is possible to book profit around the range. Because there is more market dump dates and the same could assure with good buying opportunity. For now $17.5k is the low bottom and further we don't know how far this is going to make impact over the market.

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July 19, 2022, 02:27:44 AM
 #96




Sideways from here would be fine and then later hope price is also able to beat the prior recent high and build higher on a regular basis.

sounds that you are already correct in this market time because the price is now increasing , from 19k now we are at 22k which means there seems to be an increase coming more these days.
It looks like $23k to $26k to be the next resistance levels. Users who have been holding can close the position if it is possible to book profit around the range. Because there is more market dump dates and the same could assure with good buying opportunity. For now $17.5k is the low bottom and further we don't know how far this is going to make impact over the market.
but we still  have not reaching 23k , stagnant at 22k yet.

but hopefully in sooner time we will break this and again touching at least 30k?

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July 20, 2022, 03:35:17 PM
Last edit: September 10, 2023, 12:58:35 PM by dragonvslinux
 #97

A month ago I claimed that if the 200 WMA is reclaimed, then I think $17.5K was the low. Currently waiting for a weekly close (>$22.7K), but looking good so far.

if the 200 Week MA is reclaimed (currently $22.4K), then I believe it will confirm a bottom for many, and therefore price would be unlikely to fall lower than $17.5K again.

Since this topic the Pi Cycle top/bottom indicator has signalled a bottom, Bitcoin is leaving oversold conditions on Weekly RSI as well as back above realized price (capitulation has ended for now).

For those waiting for confirmation of a bottom (instead of buying the dip) then there are also enough signs already imo, even if waiting for a small pull-back remains sensible.



Edit: Poll results screenshot 24/07:



Bears still waiting for a breakdown I see.

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July 20, 2022, 04:11:04 PM
 #98

Today bitcoin has reached 24k, which is about 40% of the expected bottom at 17.5k. Unless a reversal back to the bottom happens at these levels, we can say that 17.5k was indeed the bottom. But I wouldn't be too quick to buy now, it's too easy to buy for all those wishing to buy at those prices. There is a chance that the bottom will be tested again.

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July 20, 2022, 04:59:32 PM
 #99

Today bitcoin has reached 24k, which is about 40% of the expected bottom at 17.5k. Unless a reversal back to the bottom happens at these levels, we can say that 17.5k was indeed the bottom. But I wouldn't be too quick to buy now, it's too easy to buy for all those wishing to buy at those prices. There is a chance that the bottom will be tested again.

Yes wait for 69k before buying  Roll Eyes

Even if it would dip, btc is still considered "cheap"

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July 21, 2022, 03:07:15 PM
 #100

The market is always unpredictable, the unique thing we can see is that when the price drops below $20k there will be a large transaction volume, even many people are waiting for the moment to be able to buy cheaply, and I hope the $17k price will not happen again.
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