⚽UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread -- 2023/24 | Prelim Qualifiers

[Rruchi man]

Early top favorite as per bookmakers still Manchester City, as it has been for the past 3 seasons at least. I should know, I've been betting against them ha! Liverpool overbooked so the odds make them look favorites. Bayern, Real, PSG probably undervalued?

I don't usually take too seriously what bookmakers say, you will agree with me that winning the the UCL comprises of many factors and not just having good players. Don't get me wrong, having good players who can deliver is important, but it is not all about the players. Real Madrid won the last season's UCL, not because they had the most superb squad or the easiest running to the finals, they won the league because of the composure & resilience the players showed at every game against every team even when it looked over for them. If other teams must win this season, the players have to be able to emulate the character of Real Madrid last season.

This coming season is looking like an English season to me, Manchester city still favorites, but teams like Tottenham can shock us.

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[Unknown01]

The first qualifying round in the CL is very uninteresting for me, there are only a few teams that I have heard of (Cluj, Ludogorez, Ferencváros, ...).  Teams that usually don't make it to the CL anyway, but the games are not so bad for betting.  The next rounds should hopefully be more exciting! 

Real Madrid have an 11' odds of winning the trophy?  For me, Real is and remains the favorite in the race for the title!

[mamesso]

Early top favorite as per bookmakers still Manchester City, as it has been for the past 3 seasons at least. I should know, I've been betting against them ha! Liverpool overbooked so the odds make them look favorites. Bayern, Real, PSG probably undervalued?

I don't usually take too seriously what bookmakers say, you will agree with me that winning the the UCL comprises of many factors and not just having good players. Don't get me wrong, having good players who can deliver is important, but it is not all about the players. Real Madrid won the last season's UCL, not because they had the most superb squad or the easiest running to the finals, they won the league because of the composure & resilience the players showed at every game against every team even when it looked over for them. If other teams must win this season, the players have to be able to emulate the character of Real Madrid last season.

This coming season is looking like an English season to me, Manchester city still favorites, but teams like Tottenham can shock us.

The team must have a winning mentality, that is one of the factors to win the UCL, last season Real Madrid proved it. Before heading to the final and winning the UCL, Real Madrid made several epic comebacks. Being left behind in the first leg did not make the Madrid players mentally decline, they actually kept the spirit of fighting to be able to turn the situation around, as a result Madrid were able to win even though the situation cornered them.
The coach factor is also very influential for the success of the team, the coach must understand the situation that occurs on the field and can give the right direction to his players at certain moments. The failure of PSG because they do not have a great coach, even though their squad is filled with star players, without a great coach it is very difficult to face other big teams in the UCL.

The reason Manchester City has always been one of the favorite teams to win the UCL is because in the last 10 years they have dominated the Premier League. But what has always been Manchester City's enemy in the UCL is that they do not have a winning mentality in the Champions League competition.

[buwaytress]

Right so with the playoffs done, we now know who all participants will be for 1st leg 1st Round Qualifying on 5 July. Full schedule here: https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/fixtures-results/#/rd/2001669-1

About outrights odds, is just for me it looks weird that Real is so underrated? C'mon, PSG @6.54 and Real @11.68

Cut the rest since I doubt they could advance to the finals unless there will be a very lucky draw for them. I find it funny to see Real Madrid odds like that although they are the champions of this version! BTW is this odds correct?
I have only a problem about Real place in this list, I prefer to put them after City and before Bayern with close odds between these clubs.

Funny enough, Real haven't been the top favourites for three seasons now. 8/1 or worse and even dropped below 10/1 throughout group stages. It's reflective of form and league performance really. They weren't lighting up La Liga without Benzema and Modric majority of the season.

I'd say value bet but don't think their luck pushes through again.

You can look yourself on oddschecker, the odds shift daily but this is pretty much correct.

Thanks. I don't see many members interacting yet, I think they are afraid from the self moderated topic but eventually they will join later once we get closer.

Heh, yeah I've been deleting posts from day 1 now. As I said, felt bad past threads had become spam magnets. Time to make up for it. I'm probably a bit too harsh but I do have 100% accuracy on reported posts anyway so I take comfort that mods at least agree with my degree of harshness. I'm even trying to be very forgiving.

Aaah feels nice in here.    It's about time the old spammy threads get locked and start new self moderated ones.  If only there was an option for multiple mods for one thread, I'd be happy to volunteer with the modding duties. 

I think the mods believe they do enough of a good job (and I generally agree) but yeah, be probably quite a good idea to be able to have thread creator add one or two "admins" or "mods" -- don't think SM has the functionality though. Just use the report function as often as possible. I stopped using it for a long time but I intend to try make it more of a habit. Collectively, we should be able to trim down the crap.
I haven't looked at the outrights yet but as for the poll, I gotta pick City.  I mean they're due to win it this time right?  They've been so close for a couple of years now...  Third time's a charm me thinks.  And Guardiola rides with a huge W into the sunset.

[youdacapt]

Right so with the playoffs done, we now know who all participants will be for 1st leg 1st Round Qualifying on 5 July. Full schedule here: https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/fixtures-results/#/rd/2001669-1

 

I don't know many of these teams, i only know the likes of Malmo, qarabag, Hibernians, boda, sheriff and Maribor. Would it be fair if i support these teams because i am familiar with their clubside haha. Interesting times ahead in Europe. Cant wait for club football to resume!!!

[FanEagle]

Honestly, most of the teams we see these early stages usually are the teams that would end up seeing the europa or even maybe conference leagues and that will be fine. I personally believe that the starting of conference league allowed UCL to be a lot better, because all those smaller clubs could finally have a place that they could fight with the amount of money they have.

Definitely Roma won it last time and they have a good chunk of money, but to fight against 7th of serie A is definitely better than trying to fight against premier league and la liga champions. They will start to play early on for elimination stages, but the ones who go further, will eventually go to europa for sure, and then to conference if they are smart.

[Harkorede]

This thread have buried quickly, too a while to get it out, lol.

About outrights odds, is just for me it looks weird that Real is so underrated? C'mon, PSG @6.54 and Real @11.68

PSG are overrated, and it's surely due to the quality of the squad they've got, on paper you've got to agree they've got probably the best squad in the world right, I mean almost like a complete team with multiple options in every position and their 2nd-3rd team combination would still make a pretty decent team, and it's only Liverpool and Man City that tends to be very close to that to that level too.  I would gladly take anything ~1.50 Odds for PSG not win the trophy.
Real Madrid odds looks okay to me I don't think they're are underrated, not to take away the efforts of the team last season in the competition, but they really seemed to be rather lucky with in the trophy, they were outplayed in almost every of those knockout games and should easily have been eliminated, but somehow they just have everything work out in their favour at the end of the day.


That said, we've got series of qualifying matches lined for today. Some of the teams, I'm quite familiar with from their leagues and the odds are enticing enough, the only down part is that it's a 2-legged fixtures now unlike the preliminary rounds.

CFR Cluj, TNS, Ludogorets and Malmo all look like the teams I'd likely back to win today, the odds for Malmo and Ludogorets aren't somewhat very low btw, but the Over 2.5 might a better for them as it would be expected of them to make the most of the advantage playing the 1st leg at home and are also high scoring teams when playing against relatively weaker teams.

[LTU_btc]

There is some games with really good value. I'm going with TNS win at home against Linfield @1.85. Last season TNS played very solid in qualifiers, while Linfield is playing Brittish football and they're not good level.
Odds for Malmo and Shkupi wins is low, so I'm making parlay with them.
Another my bet is Cluj away win @1.53 against Pyunik. Lech - Qarabag is most interesting game today, but I skip it, too tricky. But I'll risk with Zalgiris win away against Balkani @2.20.
When betting it's important to pay attention that for some teams it's first game of season, while for others it's mid season.

[morvillz7z]

CFR 1907 Cluj (-1) @1.86 X

Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad (-2) @1.85  push

Malmo ML + Lech Poznan 1X @1.64  won


I've got Cluj and Ludogorets to both win comfortably before the reverse fixtures, both teams would want to at least qualify for the Europa League group stages, anything less would be considered a disappointment. Pyunik and Sutjeska, no offense to their fans, are inferior in every aspect of the game.

Last season Malmo made it to the Champions League group stages. I was looking at Malmo's stats from their last league game, a loss to Sundsvall, and noticed that they had 37 goal attempts and 20 corners.    This could get ugly for Vikingur, i only have them at the moneyline, but i won't be surprised if it's a blowout victory for the home side.

[fzkto]

The only club I know is Swedish Malmo, who play against Vikings Reykjavik. So I can assume Malmo will win because they did well in the Europa League last season. Maybe Ludogorets will still win today. But so far, the Champions League matches are not very interesting.

[buwaytress]

LTU_btc has my money, TNS did really well last season too, but I knew something was going to give and it's on the first leg... Cluj was a solid 15/10 and I thought it was good value. 15 shots and couldn't score though, so the draw kills all my other legs. Malmo half time hope they hold on to the lead as I do have one other smaller ticket (freebet):

No one likes last season's conquerors of Real Madrid? Sheriff should make it at least to 3rd round, no?

[morvillz7z]

<...>Cluj was a solid 15/10 and I thought it was good value. 15 shots and couldn't score though, so the draw kills all my other legs. <...>

Tuned in the last 20mins of the second half to see what's up with 0-0 score, their starting forward Debeljuh hit the crossbar with a bicycle kick and 5 mins later missed from close range, Pyunik managed to get a corner in those 25mins, pretty lopsided match, annoying they couldn't score at least for me to get the push.

Waiting on the mighty Shkupi to not fuck up in the second half  : https://i.imgur.com/PiV99yN.png

[LTU_btc]

Not great, not terrible day in betting - 2 wins and 2 losses. In general, probably there was just one surprise that Cluj failed to beat Pyunik. I watched few games. Ballkani - Zalgiris was terrible level game. Away draw for Zalgiris isn't bad result, considering that Ballkani dominated game. As I said, Lech - Qarabag is tricky game, Lech won it 1:0, but they weren't significantly better. Shamrock Rovers beat Hibernians 3:0, well, it was game of different level teams. Vikingur remains in the fight. They were losing 3:1, had 10 players on the pitch for 10 minutes, but late goal made score 3:2 and 2nd leg still will be interesting.

[buwaytress]

Who else hates Cluj?

Waiting on the mighty Shkupi to not fuck up in the second half  : https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/16/FMEb3.png

Hands up here I had no idea where they're from (wish I could say I'm knowledgeable enough to know where Red Imps were from but I recognised them already from 2 or 3 seasons ago, they're actually a Gibraltar version of Sheriff, minus the money haha). Saw the red card on a guy with a Georgian name and I thought I was being smart thinking I got their name... but turns out they're from North Macedonia.

Not great, not terrible day in betting - 2 wins and 2 losses. In general, probably there was just one surprise that Cluj failed to beat Pyunik. I watched few games. Ballkani - Zalgiris was terrible level game. Away draw for Zalgiris isn't bad result, considering that Ballkani dominated game. As I said, Lech - Qarabag is tricky game, Lech won it 1:0, but they weren't significantly better. Shamrock Rovers beat Hibernians 3:0, well, it was game of different level teams. Vikingur remains in the fight. They were losing 3:1, had 10 players on the pitch for 10 minutes, but late goal made score 3:2 and 2nd leg still will be interesting.

Didn't quite recall all of the odds, but yeah, certainly seems like all the favourites more or less took home wins. Qarabag was not the favourite, I do remember. Hibernians had me fooled at first (NOT, as it turns out the same as Hibernian from Scotland).

[swogerino]

Not great, not terrible day in betting - 2 wins and 2 losses. In general, probably there was just one surprise that Cluj failed to beat Pyunik. I watched few games. Ballkani - Zalgiris was terrible level game. Away draw for Zalgiris isn't bad result, considering that Ballkani dominated game. As I said, Lech - Qarabag is tricky game, Lech won it 1:0, but they weren't significantly better. Shamrock Rovers beat Hibernians 3:0, well, it was game of different level teams. Vikingur remains in the fight. They were losing 3:1, had 10 players on the pitch for 10 minutes, but late goal made score 3:2 and 2nd leg still will be interesting.

Usually at these early stages not a lot of surprises happens in qualifying because the teams playing against each other have a noticeably difference in quality.We can see that from the odds.

Lech Poznan just got the result they needed and although they were not significantly better they go to the return leg having a big advantage psychologically in their pocket,they start the second leg in advantage and should just play normally and use counter attacks,I think they will qualify further because Qarabag is not what it used to be anymore in terms of quality.

[slaman29]

Who else hates Cluj?

Need I say more?



To make matters worse, this was an early bet made very very carefully. But I knew something was up when the odds went from 1.22 to even 1.4 and as some of you wrote, 1.5 was even possible, I'm sure this could have been 1.55 at least with price boost.

Group Stage hasn't even started and already losing lol

[LTU_btc]

There is plenty of games today, one in action already, Tobol - Ferencvaros 0:0 at halftime. HJK - Riga FS, HJK is favorites here, but here I go with BTTS @1.85. Bodo/Glimt is heavy favorites against Klaksvik, but I tend to go with under 3.5 bet @1.77. Teams from Faroe islands is difficult to play, they can park effective bus and they're playing dirty football. I go with home ML in games Slovan - Dinamo Batumi and main bet is Maribor win @2.00 against Shakhtyor.

No one likes last season's conquerors of Real Madrid? Sheriff should make it at least to 3rd round, no?

Not sure about them. They have beatable opponents in their path to 3rd round, but I wouldn't be very surprised if they won't go through. I'll skip their today's game, to tricky.

I do remember. Hibernians had me fooled at first (NOT, as it turns out the same as Hibernian from Scotland).

Yeah, almost every time when I see draw of qualifiers, I laways confuse these teams. But this time Hibernians is team from Malta, not Scotland.

[hahay]

At least for now I agree with the vote in which Manchester City lead, but I personally will still wait at least until this transfer window closes. The issue of Neymar and Ronaldo is still interesting to look forward to, as both are linked with Chelsea. So, if in the end Ronaldo and Neymar might actually play for Chelsea, then this will certainly make Chelsea have a good chance in the Champions League. I'm also aware of rumors that don't guarantee 100% will happen, but I think it would be better for me to wait to vote, because the preparation of the big teams to fight for the Champions League title next season is really amazing at this time.

[FlamingFingers]

At least for now I agree with the vote in which Manchester City lead, but I personally will still wait at least until this transfer window closes. The issue of Neymar and Ronaldo is still interesting to look forward to, as both are linked with Chelsea. So, if in the end Ronaldo and Neymar might actually play for Chelsea, then this will certainly make Chelsea have a good chance in the Champions League. I'm also aware of rumors that don't guarantee 100% will happen, but I think it would be better for me to wait to vote, because the preparation of the big teams to fight for the Champions League title next season is really amazing at this time.

I think we should should wait until the season starts when lots of people will have time to vote, as for now the major contender that I'm seeing is Bayern Munich and I voted for them, adding Sadio Mane to their attack is really awesome, I feel Lewandowski will stay, Manchester city will likely flop as they have been doing before.

As for Chelsea, Ronaldo and Neymar will not win the champions league for them if eventually they try to get both of them, I don't think that winning the champions league is based on star players, team work and the ability of coaches to use their players in best way respectively is truly important, a typical example is PSG and Man City

[morvillz7z]

HJK - Riga FS, HJK is favorites here, but here I go with BTTS @1.85

Have the exact same bet, btts,...the odds for O2.5 went up a bit in the last few hours, but i'm confident we'll see goals in this one. RFS impressed last season with their wins over Puskas Academy and how tight they played Gent.

HJK Helsinki - FK Rigas Futbola Skola BTTS @1.89 X

Bodo/Glimt is heavy favorites against Klaksvik, but I tend to go with under 3.5 bet @1.77. Teams from Faroe islands is difficult to play, they can park effective bus and they're playing dirty football.

Went with total corners on this one, i share your sentiment that we can expect to see Klaksvik playing deep into their own half with Bodo/Glimt trying to break them.

Bodo/Glimt - KI Klaksvik Total Corners O9.5 @1.73  won


Despite being considered underdogs in this round, Zrinjski Mostar and Dinamo Batumi are capable of putting up a fight. I actually expect both teams to advance...to the surprise of many.

SK Slovan Bratislava - FC Dinamo Batumi BTTS @1.88 X

HSK Zrinjski Mostar - FC Sheriff Tiraspol BTTS @2.04 X