⚽UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread -- 2023/24 | Prelim Qualifiers

[Pulsar77]

I think this season should be Paris Saint Germain time to win the champions League,they have done everything just to win this tournament, is the only trophy they have not win since they new owners bought the club, the brought Lionel Messi and Sergio Ramos last season which for me are the two best in there positions, just like my brother always said at attack, Messi is the best,at  midfield Luca modric is the best then at defence Ramos is the best, unfortunately for Paris Saint Germain last season Ramos was injured all through the season he just played few games while Messi was adjusting to new surroundings but this year both of them have adapt well and are playing to prove their critics wrong, so I think they are the favourite.

This must be the year for one of PSG and Manchester City teams actually.

I know how much PSG are trying to win the Champions League title. They've done everything they could to extend Mbappe's contract also. Because he is the mainstay of this team undoubtedly. Without him, they are much weaker especially in the Champions League. The reason why they brought Messi was that he would play solidly with his old friend and teammate Neymar also. They are doing everything they can to achieve the title for the first time.

However we shouldn't forget about Manchester City at this point. I find them stronger as a team. After signing Haaland the team performance has increased incredibly high compared to before. With the help of his insane performance, they are a huge threat to any team competing in this tournament. Let's see which one of these teams will make it further.

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[kro55]

snip

Chelsea don't have much time in the next two games against Milan, they will have to play much better and get much better results if they want to win the top two places in the group.
If they fail to beat Milan, then they will significantly reduce their chances of going to the knockout phase of the Champions League.
Chelsea now has a new coach who doesn't have much time for some changes in the team, he has to immediately raise the level of the game and start winning otherwise he won't stay as a coach for long.

Chelsea may not be able to produce good results right away, but I think that they will be able to do so with some patience. The performance of the team will have to be improved. I believe that it will take some time for the new coach to get settled into the organization, especially with the new coach. Also, the new coach will need some time to figure out which tactic is best for the team.

So, for some reason, I think Milan might have the upper hand going into this match. Nevertheless, I have to say that the performance of Milan has also not been the best that it has been in the past. I will not be surprised if this match ends up in a draw.

[coinlocket$]

It's time again

Tuesday 4th October

Bayern Munich 17:45 FC Viktoria Plzen
Marseille 17:45 Sporting Lisbon
Ajax 20:00 Napoli
Club Brugge 20:00 Atletico Madrid
Eintracht Frankfurt 20:00 Tottenham Hotspur
FC Porto 20:00 Bayer Leverkusen
Inter Milan 20:00 Barcelona
Liverpool 20:00 Rangers

Wednesday 5th October

RB Leipzig 17:45 Celtic
Red Bull Salzburg 17:45 Dinamo Zagreb
Benfica 20:00 Paris Saint-Germain
Chelsea 20:00 AC Milan
Juventus 20:00 Maccabi Haifa
Manchester City 20:00 FC Copenhagen
Real Madrid 20:00 Shakhtar Donetsk
Sevilla 20:00 Borussia Dortmund



Already last call for Juventus, if they don't win they will almost be out of the Champions.

Source: https://www.skysports.com/champions-league-fixtures

[shogun47]

Let's look at the opinion of bookmakers:

Manchester city 2.85 - 35% chance of winning, City is overrated in my opinion. A title every three years in the presence of a crowd of competitors? Don't even dream, sheikhs!

Paris Saint Germain 5.55 - 18% but the second place among all contenders? That's just funny.

Bayern Munich 6.05 - in my opinion Bavaria is underestimated, even considering their current problems.

Liverpool 7.55 - 13% looks like a fair estimate, but still Liverpool is overrated.

RealMadrid 10.10 - LOL, comments are redundant.
 
Barcelona 11.70 - the most incomprehensible estimate in my opinion - on the one hand, only 8.5%, which can be called a modest/fair chance. On the other hand, I have not yet seen a single confirmation this season that Barcelona is ready to compete with strong clubs. Why is it fundamentally better than Tottenham (which has a coefficient of 18.9)? I do not see.

There were exactly two games where Tottenham played convincingly strong soccer. That was against Southampton and against (an extremely weak) Leicester City. They barely won against Marseille (one man down for over 45 minutes) and they lost against Sporting Lissabon. The game against Manchester City was rescheduled, which would have actually been the only game to make a first judgment.

Fc Barcelona should have won the game against Bayern. They were the better team, but Lewandowski and I think Gavi screwed it with missing their 1000% chances before Bayern took the lead by means of a corner that found the head of Hernandez.

Except for the first game in La Liga against Rayo Vallecano and the unlucky loss against Bayern, I would clearly see them ahead of Tottenham right now. That doesn't mean they would 100% win a head to head of course, but if the question now was about the odds in a game Barcelona vs. Tottenham, I would probably lean towards a 60-65% to 40-35% in favor of Barcelona. That does not perfectly reflect the difference in the odds provided, but I would definitely say Barcelona seems to be stronger than Tottenham right now.

  Hmm... it's not even funny to be honest. The ability to realize moments is the same skill as any other. Bayern were stronger in this match and saying that Barcelona should have won is not serious. Just as frivolously as some still talk about the fact that Real Madrid was lucky last season.
By the way, you probably think that Barcelona should have won the Europa League last year, right?

As for comparing Barcelona and Tottenham, the point is not in their personal comparison (and by the way I'm not sure that Tottenham is weaker than Barcelona in a personal meeting), but in the fact that in order to become a champion you must defeat the rest of the competitors (and not one). I do not see a single factor that would say that Tottenham are weaker than Barcelona on average relative to other rivals, but there are such factors regarding Barcelona - for example, their inability to play against the bus and simply disciplined teams playing on the counter.

I do think that it is pretty normal to judge games with a realistic sense. What does that realistic sense look like?

Well, if we repeat the game between and Barcelona the exact same way for 100 times and we allow for some likelihoods to be applied to, for instance, Lewandowski shooting the ball across the bar from that position early on in the game, that game is taking another direction. Or Gavi failing to score out of less than 5 meters...

I am not saying that Bayern had no chance, they always have a chance as their quality is just too high to not have any chance at all. Even Muller and Neuer said after the game that there is really no reason to be overly optimistic given how the game went. Or the penalty situation with Dembele. This game a lot of things went in Bayern's favor, things that were NOT under their control. That is why I say luck was with them this time.

A standard situation turning a game upside down can always happen and it makes the sport exciting for spectators as well if a game can take an unexpected turn. A good example is Villareal against Bayern last season.

As is said in law, being right does not automatically lead to getting justice. I think I am more or less able to assess what team was better, but lacked a little bit of luck in the end. It's great that Madrid made it because that is an amazing story. And why is it so amazing? That even Kroos said this title was quite special and probably won't happen that way again? Because it won't happen again... There were so many situations that even Real Madrid didn't expect to play out in their favor for a good reason. Donnaruma throwing away the win with his spectacular failure and so on.

Saying "the team who won is the deserved winner" would definitely apply if no external actors had influence. Penalty or not for Dembele against Bayern? A lot of referees would have blown the whistle.

[Pulsar77]

Juventus don't have an odd worth betting on. I mean that single bet wouldn't be logical for only a 1.31 odd however it can be a nice choice to be added to a multi of course.

Because I also believe in Juventus to win against Maccabi Haifa to start a good form finally. After a horrible start to the season in each tournament they are in, they need to get a decent win to improve their morale. Maccabi Haifa match is a good opportunity for that. Juventus still maintain their chance to qualify from the group despite being 6 points behind their closest opponent. They must defeat Maccabi Haifa two times in a row to increase their chance and this isn't a difficult task to perform. If they gain some momentum I'm pretty sure they will do better. In this way, people would stop criticizing Allegri harshly also.

[AndySt]

Juventus don't have an odd worth betting on. I mean that single bet wouldn't be logical for only a 1.31 odd however it can be a nice choice to be added to a multi of course.
Because I also believe in Juventus to win against Maccabi Haifa to start a good form finally. After a horrible start to the season in each tournament they are in, they need to get a decent win to improve their morale. Maccabi Haifa match is a good opportunity for that. Juventus still maintain their chance to qualify from the group despite being 6 points behind their closest opponent. They must defeat Maccabi Haifa two times in a row to increase their chance and this isn't a difficult task to perform. If they gain some momentum I'm pretty sure they will do better. In this way, people would stop criticizing Allegri harshly also.

Oh, yes, fate presented Juventus with excellent chances to seriously improve their points margin and standings in the matches with Maccabi. Another question is that this imposes a serious responsibility on Massimiliano Allegri and if he cannot take advantage of this opportunity, then a very serious danger of dismissal may loom in front of him, despite the fact that the club's management is not yet ready to do this. Still, Juventus is going through not the most favorable times financially and the prospect of parting with $ 21 million rumored to be written in the contract for termination clearly does not appeal to the club president. On the other hand, not leaving the group will also be a blow to the club's budget, so if it still goes on so smoothly in the championship, then organizational conclusions may still follow.

[CryptocurencyKing]

It's time again

Tuesday 4th October

Bayern Munich 17:45 FC Viktoria Plzen
Marseille 17:45 Sporting Lisbon
Ajax 20:00 Napoli
Club Brugge 20:00 Atletico Madrid
Eintracht Frankfurt 20:00 Tottenham Hotspur
FC Porto 20:00 Bayer Leverkusen
Inter Milan 20:00 Barcelona
Liverpool 20:00 Rangers

Wednesday 5th October

RB Leipzig 17:45 Celtic
Red Bull Salzburg 17:45 Dinamo Zagreb
Benfica 20:00 Paris Saint-Germain
Chelsea 20:00 AC Milan
Juventus 20:00 Maccabi Haifa
Manchester City 20:00 FC Copenhagen
Real Madrid 20:00 Shakhtar Donetsk
Sevilla 20:00 Borussia Dortmund



Already last call for Juventus, if they don't win they will almost be out of the Champions.

Source: https://www.skysports.com/champions-league-fixtures

Chelsea vs AC Milan is going to be the most interesting among these games. AC Milan are blowing hot this season and their seriousness shows how far they are ready to climb this year. Last season was a good one for them and they haven’t lost that form in this new season. While Chelsea are still trying to stabilize and find a tone to their games. They have a new manager and did made some signings this summer window, they haven’t been able to blend well so it’s a pity that they’ll be facing the Italian champions in this state. AC Milan is the better team on paper and I think they’ll grab a win at Stamford Bridge.

[joker_josue]

Already last call for Juventus, if they don't win they will almost be out of the Champions.

Well, if Juventus can't beat Maccabi Haifa, or just get a draw, that's a very bad sign.
We will be facing Juventus, just like Barcelona from last season. But I think they will manage to win.

[buwaytress]

Already last call for Juventus, if they don't win they will almost be out of the Champions.

Which team was it that lost first 3 games last season or the one before and yet still managed to progress? Scratching my head to remember, thought it was Sporting but checked and it's not them.

Juve can afford to lose 1 more game in this group, provided the Israelis take points off Benfica and Juve win their last 3 games. But yeah, realistically, drop points in this 3rd game and they can kiss goodbye to KO.

It seems this OP deleted posts randomly based on what he doesn't like, regardless of the quality . That's why I don't like self-moderation. It curtails freedom of speech . No matter whether he deletes it or not, I should reply to you.

No, that's not true.

It is not at all random, and it is in fact even a lot more lenient than I would normally be.

Long walls of quote posts, unnecessary repetition of game and tournament "analyses" with no new insight, no added value to the ongoing thread of conversation, and generally just poor quality.

Compare the non-moderated threads with the moderated ones. And ask yourself honestly if this "freedom of speech" is really so enshrined by allowing all of the spam and meaningless posts that actually restrict and obfuscate the actual speech that should be read by people.

I used to even PM people after I deleted their messages but 90% didn't even respond back, and help them write better posts that won't get deleted. Not a single person has ever written to me either (I have always taken the initiative), you included, so it feels pretty obvious to me that they don't care. Maybe because they can just spam other threads, or they're not real people who want to have real conversations, or they know they're spamming and don't want to change.

Not sorry for trying to help improve forum standards.

[bitzizzix]

Already last call for Juventus, if they don't win they will almost be out of the Champions.

Well, if Juventus can't beat Maccabi Haifa, or just get a draw, that's a very bad sign.
We will be facing Juventus, just like Barcelona from last season. But I think they will manage to win.

these two teams have the same fate and are yet to taste victory in the Champions League this season, and the Juventus vs Maccabi Haifa match will be played at the Juventus stadium
Stadium in Turin Italy.
Juventus will be the favourites, besides juventus playing at home these two teams met in the 2009 Champions League in two matches which Juventus always won 1-0. And I believe Juventus will win this match.

[Pokapoka124]

Aside from the English clubs, Napoli and Benfica are worth to mention since they're really strong on their own local league and they're have won 2 matches in UEFA. Napoli already find their missing piece after Min-Jae Kim join Napoli, he have very good performance as a defender, he block many shots. While Benfica, they're already strong and have produced many good players. Even though Nunez already move to Liverpool, but Goncalo Ramos is perfectly replace Nunez position.

Benfica have been on fire this season, winning all 7 games. I hope they can continue like this in the European competitions. It would be interesting to see Benfica challenging teams like Real madrid, Barcelona, PSG and Manchester city for the champions league trophy. For years, the trophy has cycled around same familiar teams, I think it's time to see new names winning the trophy.

[hyudien]

They are acting like child when things do not go their way, it's a very tough job to recover ones belief in themselves when someone loses it, and when they get scored, they do not have that fire to make a comeback, they need that because in further stages of UCL they will need it.

This season could be a good opportunity for PSG if they can continue to build cohesiveness both on the pitch and off the pitch. Because so far PSG only needs trust between players and put aside ego. Say ego in terms of sharing a seat. Everyone sees PSG from the perspective of the stars for the seats. As a result, it often clashes with the club's goals. They can win the Champions League this season if everyone works for the team, not to increase the rating of one player.

[shogun47]

They are acting like child when things do not go their way, it's a very tough job to recover ones belief in themselves when someone loses it, and when they get scored, they do not have that fire to make a comeback, they need that because in further stages of UCL they will need it.

This season could be a good opportunity for PSG if they can continue to build cohesiveness both on the pitch and off the pitch. Because so far PSG only needs trust between players and put aside ego. Say ego in terms of sharing a seat. Everyone sees PSG from the perspective of the stars for the seats. As a result, it often clashes with the club's goals. They can win the Champions League this season if everyone works for the team, not to increase the rating of one player.

From what one can tell given the circulating news, they are not really building cohesiveness as it seems. I know it doesn't make any sense to believe everything that is written in the media, but I do believe that Mbappe and Neymar really aren't friends or good colleagues. They are both a diva on the pitch and when it comes to the decisive moments in a game, I would argue that Messi is the only one who would pull back and let someone else take a chance. I wouldn't have said that a couple of years ago, but now that is the case. Mbappe and Neymar could turn into a problem especially in those situations when a player should play a cross ball in front of the opponent's goalkeeper but then decides to go for it and fails. Those situations might very well occur and then they will argue with each other on the pitch.

[CLS63]

Things are going on really interestingly in the group stage this season. Many big teams of their groups like Chelsea, Juventus, Porto and Marseille have started really badly. Maybe we have left only two weeks in the group stage but the recent performances are indicating surprising results at the end.

Juventus are the most disadvantageous one among these teams. Because PSG and Benfica have already got six points ahead of them. Juventus have no chance other than hoping for PSG to defeat Benfica two times in a row while they are doing the same against Maccabi Haifa. If they don't manage to get six points against even Maccabi Haifa then they don't deserve the next stage in this tournament surely.

[Harkorede]

It's time again
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Already last call for Juventus, if they don't win they will almost be out of the Champions.

Source: https://www.skysports.com/champions-league-fixtures

It's not just the 1st leg that matters, Juventus needs a win in both fixtures against Maccabi Haifa because that's the only thing that can put them in better position to make the knockout phase, and hope that PSG does win get the maximum points both home and away agsinst Benfica as well, that put all the ball in Juventus court when they play against in the 5th fixture, anything other this will still make qualifying for the round of 16 difficult for them.


Barcelona vs Inter Milan, Ajax vs Napoli and Chelsea vs AC Milan are my choices of fixtures to not miss.

[D-law]

It's time again
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Already last call for Juventus, if they don't win they will almost be out of the Champions.

Source: https://www.skysports.com/champions-league-fixtures

It's not just the 1st leg that matters, Juventus needs a win in both fixtures against Maccabi Haifa because that's the only thing that can put them in better position to make the knockout phase, and hope that PSG does win get the maximum points both home and away agsinst Benfica as well, that put all the ball in Juventus court when they play against in the 5th fixture, anything other this will still make qualifying for the round of 16 difficult for them.


Barcelona vs Inter Milan, Ajax vs Napoli and Chelsea vs AC Milan are my choices of fixtures to not miss.

Stages like this you see Napoli gradually loosing games
I'm sure Barcelona would want to win, they need the win to stay below Bayern Munich
Chelsea Milan should be my must watch I want to see how Potter handle's this.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Chelsea will exit from the group stage without getting to the next round because it looks as if they were not prepared for the Champions league this season,and despite the quality players that they signed,they are still unable to show people that they worth the money,so far,it's only Sterling that has showed that he is worth the money spent on him,because his getting goals.

I think the team is just struggling at the main time and it happens to every team once in a while so let us not be so quick to write them off already. They need a little more time, they have a new manager now who hopefully will help improve the squad and bring in new ideas and new strategies to winning games, I believe we will see the impact of these changes in the team very soon. They will come back stronger.

The truth is that it is sad about Chelsea, for me what happened in this team is because eventually the crisis reached them all, I know they have made very good and good contracts, but here is something they must show is to play and win, the teams they have been showing that the level of football has been growing and this is known by the teams that are actively participating, for me the technical director will do a good job with them and I don't think they are going to rule out many things, so I would not be totally rushing to say that they will not enter, I think there are still good possibilities for them to enter.

It's time again
.
.
.
.
Already last call for Juventus, if they don't win they will almost be out of the Champions.

Source: https://www.skysports.com/champions-league-fixtures

It's not just the 1st leg that matters, Juventus needs a win in both fixtures against Maccabi Haifa because that's the only thing that can put them in better position to make the knockout phase, and hope that PSG does win get the maximum points both home and away agsinst Benfica as well, that put all the ball in Juventus court when they play against in the 5th fixture, anything other this will still make qualifying for the round of 16 difficult for them.


Barcelona vs Inter Milan, Ajax vs Napoli and Chelsea vs AC Milan are my choices of fixtures to not miss.

I really wouldn't like Juve to be left out, but the truth is they have to do everything to not be left out, what they have for now is a unique opportunity to see if they can have more chances of winning, Maccabi Haifa is a team that it can give surprises, but for me Juve is beginning to overcome all its problems and can generate good joy for its fans, they really need the victory and see that everything can be restarted, no matter how many problems they have they can do a good job, In the case of PSG I don't think it will be complicated against Benfica, they have everything to win, and so far they have shown that they are very strong and in fact they are.

Stages like this you see Napoli gradually loosing games
I'm sure Barcelona would want to win, they need the win to stay below Bayern Munich
Chelsea Milan should be my must watch I want to see how Potter handle's this.

Napoli is a team that I don't know why it has shown that behavior, it is a very good team, and in Serie A it is not that bad either, I am also waiting for the match between Arsenal and Milan, we will see if Potter has everything he needs that Tuhel did, and if above all he has been able to establish a good bond with the players, for me he is a very good coach, but the error was not in the technical director, what happens is that when there are bad results the head that they cut off is those of the coaches, when the real problem lies with the players themselves and their motivation, I hope to see a very strong Arsenal, they have everything to be able to beat Milan.


Well Napoli is strange that they have those results, for me they have made good renovations, however we have the following:

How Napoli's revamp made them a stronger bet for Serie A, Champions League progress

Napoli needed a boost to sustain a run at the scudetto, given the consistent collapses in April that would see them slide down the table. Last season, with the Partenopei playing host to Fiorentina, the visitors knocked them down to third with a 3-2 victory. It was nearly as painful as the 3-0 loss to the Viola in April 2018, when a victory could've meant overtaking Juventus at the top of the table. In between, their three away defeats in April 2016 saw Napoli ultimately fall nine points short of the Bianconeri, causing this author (and millions of others) to beg the soccer gods for a victory against Frosinone and a Champions League group stage berth rather than hoping for a third league title.

Source: https://www.espn.com/soccer/napoli/story/4747290/how-napolis-revamp-made-them-a-stronger-bet-for-serie-achampions-league-progress

A very interesting article, and here they include a video where ESPN does a good analysis, I am a Serie A fan and Napoli have shown great improvement.

[Distraction]

I'm thinking of a betslip like:

- Ajax - Napoli : both teams to score (1.52)
- Inter - Barcelona : Barcelona to win (1.82)
- Juventus - Maccabi Haifa : Juventus to win (1.31)

The odd in total is 3.62 which is pretty nice for a parlay I think.

Ajax and Napoli both are very productive teams. We saw Ajax having a big struggle against Liverpool in Anfield the last time though. But Ajax are playing much more differently in Amsterdam. It doesn't matter for Napoli about where they are playing. They are finding goals easily these days. Both of them love to play attacking football so both teams should be able to score nicely.

Inter are still having very bad days as Inzaghi can't figure out a solution for this bad form. They lost to Roma newly which might demoralize them a lot. Barcelona have a big opportunity ahead while they are in an impressive form. I don't expect them to waste this chance. They can consolidate their place in the group by defeating Inter in both matches actually.

Juventus have finally obtained the victory they needed. It was a 3-0 win over Bologna in the Serie A. This win should be a big morale for them before their CL match. Maccabi Haifa can't do much against them as long as Juventus keep a dominant game throughout the match. I believe they will get a comfortable win by at least 2 goals but I didn't want to increase the risk by adding -1.5 handicap for them.

[Despairo]

I'm thinking of a betslip like:

- Ajax - Napoli : both teams to score (1.52)
- Inter - Barcelona : Barcelona to win (1.82)
- Juventus - Maccabi Haifa : Juventus to win (1.31)

The odd in total is 3.62 which is pretty nice for a parlay I think.

I agree with your guess if Ajax and Napoli will score many goals, Barcelona will win against Inter Milan. But I don't agree with Juventus will win against Maccabi Haifa, both of this clubs are losing on their both matches, so it's a risky bet IMO. The reason why Juventus is huge favorite is because the popularity, Maccabi Haifa club are not known for many people, but if you looking on their performance, they have decent performance just like Juventus.

I think Benfica vs PSG are worth to bet Benfica to win here, their performance are good and the match will happen on Benfica's home, but Benfica is the underdog here.

[ILuckyGuyI]

I agree with your guess if Ajax and Napoli will score many goals, Barcelona will win against Inter Milan. But I don't agree with Juventus will win against Maccabi Haifa, both of this clubs are losing on their both matches, so it's a risky bet IMO. The reason why Juventus is huge favorite is because the popularity, Maccabi Haifa club are not known for many people, but if you looking on their performance, they have decent performance just like Juventus.

I think Benfica vs PSG are worth to bet Benfica to win here, their performance are good and the match will happen on Benfica's home, but Benfica is the underdog here.

You have really interesting choices.

I mean that I see no way for Juventus losing even two points against Maccabi Haifa in this game. They have finally made an improvement in their performance by their win in a league game. This must be pushing them to play even stronger against Maccabi Haifa. There is already a huge strength difference between these teams. Juventus should even be able to collect six points against them in both matches to maintain their chance to qualify from their group.

When it comes to Benfica - PSG game, I don't think Benfica can win this. They are playing decently indeed. But this is one of the most difficult matchups they can have in the Champions League. They are playing against one of the favourites of the title. Maybe PSG are the away team but I still think that they can defeat Benfica here. They would like to strengthen their lead in the group to finish the job earlier in the group stage.