"I'll wait for the dip!" - The Crypto Noob Cycle

[arbiter5]

*Bitcoin drops 10%*  -  "I'll wait for it to drop further"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "it's going to drop more"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "I'll finally buy at another 10% drop"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "looks like it's going to drop further"

*Bitcoin drops another 20%*  -  "I'm not buying. bitcoin is dead"

*Bitcoin reaches the price floor, then rises slowly for months an months*  -  "I'll wait for the dip"



- repeat after every halving cycle -

[1715159241]

1715159241

[ImThour]

No one can call the Bitcoin bottom, that's how the market works. The only thing you can relate to is the ongoing market situation. The current economy is on the collapse and you cannot call $18k a bottom.
In all the previous cycles, it retraced almost 80%+ and now in the occasion of an upcoming recession, It should follow the same which takes the bottom near about $12k per BTC.
In the end, I would say don't wait for the bottom, start DCAing.

[tranthidung]

What they said, what they hoped and what they response to when chance comes are differently.

So they hope to see lower price again when Bitcoin is in bull run. When bear market comes and gives them discount price, they are fearful that Bitcoin will fall to zero or to much lower price. They reject to take opportunity and when next bull run comes, they hope again. Then if dips come, bear market comes again, they will reject it again. 

[mk4]

Funny how despite most people not being able to do it well, most people still want to time markets; thinking that they're different and that they can outsmart everyone or something.

[rodskee]

*Bitcoin drops 10%*  -  "I'll wait for it to drop further"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "it's going to drop more"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "I'll finally buy at another 10% drop"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "looks like it's going to drop further"

*Bitcoin drops another 20%*  -  "I'm not buying. bitcoin is dead"

*Bitcoin reaches the price floor, then rises slowly for months an months*  -  "I'll wait for the dip"



- repeat after every halving cycle -

That's the mentality of those not serious in their investments , meaning people constantly act like that are those people that never make a good Money inside crypto market .
 and talking about dip, mostly people understand this as 30-50% drop in which favors your comment but the word telling that Bitcoin is dead? maybe that is exaggerated part.
I am buying Bitcoin every 10% dropping and selling when there are at least 20% and up increasing .

[aoluain]

What they said, what they hoped and what they response to when chance comes are differently.

So they hope to see lower price again when Bitcoin is in bull run. When bear market comes and gives them discount price, they are fearful that Bitcoin will fall to zero or to much lower price. They reject to take opportunity and when next bull run comes, they hope again. Then if dips come, bear market comes again, they will reject it again.  

Yes, its fear of the unknown and no knowledge of how the cycles go. The majority need
confirmation that the market is doing what everyone else is saying, thats why at $60k
after weeks of upward movement it looks like its going to $100k (but it doesnt) Likewise
at $20k after weeks of downward movement it looks like its going to $1k (but it doesnt)

So a lot of people end up buying and selling at the opposite ends of the market!

[Husires]

What you are trying to say is described in psychology as “post-purchase remorse,” which is mostly limited to two dimensions, the first of which is the loss due to the opportunity of missed alternatives, which relates to, for example, if he bought bitcoin today and the price fell again tomorrow, the person will regret that he did not wait for tomorrow, and the second is regret because of the change As important as those who bought Bitcoin, then Litecoin rose by more than 10%.

This is a study that you can see: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/287625919_Post-purchase_consumer_regret_Conceptualization_and_development_of_the_PPCR_scale

Let me give you a deeper example, back in April and according to a study by ConsumerAffairs it was found that nearly half of the people who bought cryptocurrency in the last year regret their actions, notice this in April, not today.

https://www.consumeraffairs.com/finance/learning-from-financial-hindsight.html

[franky1]

Yes, its fear of the unknown and no knowledge of how the cycles go. The majority need
confirmation that the market is doing what everyone else is saying, thats why at $60k
after weeks of upward movement it looks like its going to $100k (but it doesnt) Likewise
at $20k after weeks of downward movement it looks like its going to $1k (but it doesnt)

So a lot of people end up buying and selling at the opposite ends of the market!

its easy to find indicators that hint to a value window. (bottom/tops) of possible price range the market sits inside
(i use the words hint and possible.. its not a exact formulae for an exact amount. there are other variables that are included that i have not described. its just a loose hint)

but in simple terms, lets first take the ATH
the reason it topped out at $70k instead of $100k is easy to understand
if you work out the mining costs of different regions of the planet (different electric costs) japan and germany being the higher end at between 35-40cent per kwh

you can calculate that the cost becomes around $70k. the threshold where everyone on the planet finds it cheaper to mine it rather then buy it. because obviously everyone on the planet can mine for less then $70k at the time

and so the buys dry up and the sells overpower the buys. so it topped out at $70k
there was no buy demand if people can obtain it cheaper via mining. so thats why it didnt go further.

you can use the mining cost calculations to refresh the value window periodically and see the window prices generally move within

take the bottom.when calculating the minimum (cheapest electric+hardware cost ROI) no one wants to sell at a loss and so they refuse to sell.. again less sells and more buys because for some countries when the price is near the bottom end its cheaper to buy rather than mine it.

this is why the chances of bitcoin Bottom being zero is negligible chance. there is too much value holding it up in the multiple thousands of dollar range to crash to zero

..
what you find is that when the price goes down.. the cheap efficient miners keep mining. its the expensive hobby miners that switch off their asics and then start to buy. this means the efficient miners get more share of the reward meaning more coin per hash. meaning cheaper coin for them mine.

for a drastic shift downwards of the bottom end of the window. would require alot of shifting of hashpower.
the difficulty adjustments wont go back to CPU penny rates in a fortnight. it would take over a year to get to CPU rates again.
the hashrate of the last 6 months is staying happily over 200exa. so yea. that sort of scenario is not happening.

[Despairo]

That's why you need to buy every dip, but not waiting until the lowest dip/bottom.

Many people tend to make easy money for waiting the lowest price to buy and sell on the highest price, but actually on the realization he's bought at the peak and then sell at the bottom, so shame. There's no one can predict the market or have a crystal ball to know the exact Bitcoin price on x day etc.

The best way is setting up many limit orders e.g. buy on specific prices $20K, $19K, $18K, $17K, $16K and so on. If you can hold for long term and Bitcoin will make new ATH, then you'll earn so much profit in the future.

[TheNineClub]

*Bitcoin drops 10%*  -  "I'll wait for it to drop further"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "it's going to drop more"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "I'll finally buy at another 10% drop"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "looks like it's going to drop further"

*Bitcoin drops another 20%*  -  "I'm not buying. bitcoin is dead"

*Bitcoin reaches the price floor, then rises slowly for months an months*  -  "I'll wait for the dip"



- repeat after every halving cycle -

It's the age-old gambling issue, just one more turn of the wheel, just one more shuffle of the cards, and I am a winner. That's just human nature and gambling psychology. So I can't blame people for that, that takes a lot of mental toughness to overcome, and not everyone is up for that. Even if you point that out to them, they can't overcome that step and will continue to do so. But in the end, if they are here for the long run, whatever time they get in is still not late.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

Funny how despite most people not being able to do it well, most people still want to time markets; thinking that they're different and that they can outsmart everyone or something.

And majority of us time it wrong,   And there are people who keep on waiting to buy and then when it is on the top they FOMO and then bitch around when the price goes down.

So yeah, this is going to be cyclical, and as the new investors become old and gain experience, then another set comes in, so it's going to repeat again and again.

[Cryptomiles1]

Human beings are unpredictable, they always cry's for opportunities but when it comes they took it for granted. i could remembers a friend of mine who always calls me to know the price of bitcoin, at a point he kept saying when is down in a way it won't be able to go down more please i call me i will buy, when bitcoin gets to $17k i called him and said " Oboy are you really sure that is the last point bitcoin could ever dip down"? and i replied him "Yes sir"! so i reminded him to buy he said please lets wait for $10k

Guess what?

Today he has been since from our last discussions i refused to answer his calls because i knew it will still end up the same way as usually. he wrote all kind of text but i totally silent him because he has refused to utilized the opportunities given to him.

[franky1]

And majority of us time it wrong,   And there are people who keep on waiting to buy and then when it is on the top they FOMO and then bitch around when the price goes down.

this is why people need to learn
"buy low sell high"
"average down"
"buy the dip"
"buy the drop not the top"

i personally have hoards from early years so dont NEED more coins.
but when seeing the highs(not interested in selling anyways, give it a few more years)
i then seen the correction of this cycle. and i HAPPILY bought more at the $30k range. then more at the $25k range and more at the $20k range.
im not sad or angry or emotional about the $30k because i know its still a low in comparison to the high and the next cycle
im not sad or angry or emotional about the $25k because i know its still a low in comparison to the high and the next cycle
im not sad or angry or emotional about the $17k that i didnt hit.. because i know not everyone can snake in deals with exact timing to get in at the exact low of the low.

no one can time it perfectly. no one is expected to..
the best people can do is find the window of value opportunity and gauge it as a cheap to premium. and just buy it while in the cheap zone

cheap                                           premium
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15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

[Betwrong]

No one can call the Bitcoin bottom, that's how the market works. The only thing you can relate to is the ongoing market situation. The current economy is on the collapse and you cannot call $18k a bottom.
In all the previous cycles, it retraced almost 80%+ and now in the occasion of an upcoming recession, It should follow the same which takes the bottom near about $12k per BTC.
In the end, I would say don't wait for the bottom, start DCAing.

That's a good advice actually. There's no doubt that Bitcoin will start rising at one point, and a new ATH will be reached, as it always happens. And since we can't know the BTC bottom for sure, starting buying when it's below $20k is a good idea. Not with all your money allocated for the investment, but maybe with 5% of it at a time. Wait a week, do it again. I'd say, you are very lucky if you manage to invest half of the allocated money at Bitcoin price below $30k.

[Etranger]

no one can time it perfectly. no one is expected to..
the best people can do is find the window of value opportunity and gauge it as a cheap to premium. and just buy it while in the cheap zone

cheap                                           premium
[|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||]
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

That's a good advice actually. There's no doubt that Bitcoin will start rising at one point, and a new ATH will be reached, as it always happens. And since we can't know the BTC bottom for sure, starting buying when it's below $20k is a good idea. Not with all your money allocated for the investment, but maybe with 5% of it at a time. Wait a week, do it again. I'd say, you are very lucky if you manage to invest half of the allocated money at Bitcoin price below $30k.

Concidering that the price was at ATH last fall, which was near 70k, and also it has been between 45-60 for a long time last year and the beggining of this year, I believe that 20000 is a relly good chance to enter the market. Bitcoin shows growth in the long term perspective, this is undoubtable, that is why all the pessimistic scenarios about the crash to 0 look rediculous to me. I am sure BTC will be 100000 in the next 1.5 -2 years. That is why bying even at 30000 is a great opportunity, which far-sighted people won`t lose.

[edgycorner]

I would advise treating bitcoin as another risky asset, before purchasing it(if your sole purpose is holding for its value).
The people that you are referencing in your noob cycle, only invest in safe assets. There's nothing wrong with it. You can never turn them. To each their own.

Bitcoin's purpose was never to make people "rich". It's a revolution against centralized institutions, for a more just society. For the most part, bitcoin's role is over. God can rest now.
It's going to be belittled by pagans with gambling addiction for a long time.

[CryptoHeadlineNews]

*Bitcoin drops 10%*  -  "I'll wait for it to drop further"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "it's going to drop more"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "I'll finally buy at another 10% drop"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "looks like it's going to drop further"

*Bitcoin drops another 20%*  -  "I'm not buying. bitcoin is dead"

*Bitcoin reaches the price floor, then rises slowly for months an months*  -  "I'll wait for the dip"

You just demonstrated the exact mindset of all Bitcoin hodlers and intending hodlers in simple words, and it's actually what has been happening and will keep happening, because people never always believe that "now" is the right time to buy Bitcoin, as there has never been to the best time to buy this coin as long as the goal is for a long term investment, because it will always fall and rise, as that's what makes it volatile

[The Cryptovator]

Yea, this is the thought of those who are new to the crypto space. Once the price starts dumping the FUD starts at the same time and a lot of negative news comes out together. This is another reason why noobs think this cycle. We can't predict the exact button for each bear ever, so if we wait for that dip most likely we can't accumulate ever. Most of the time happens to me when buying a token price start to dump and never recover till I hold. But if sold, the price starts pumping. Every dip is an accumulation zone if we can hold tight. Otherwise, we will round the cycle and miss the train.

[franky1]

no one can time it perfectly. no one is expected to..
the best people can do is find the window of value opportunity and gauge it as a cheap to premium. and just buy it while in the cheap zone

cheap                                           premium
[|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||]
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

That's a good advice actually. There's no doubt that Bitcoin will start rising at one point, and a new ATH will be reached, as it always happens. And since we can't know the BTC bottom for sure, starting buying when it's below $20k is a good idea. Not with all your money allocated for the investment, but maybe with 5% of it at a time. Wait a week, do it again. I'd say, you are very lucky if you manage to invest half of the allocated money at Bitcoin price below $30k.

Concidering that the price was at ATH last fall, which was near 70k, and also it has been between 45-60 for a long time last year and the beggining of this year, I believe that 20000 is a relly good chance to enter the market. Bitcoin shows growth in the long term perspective, this is undoubtable, that is why all the pessimistic scenarios about the crash to 0 look rediculous to me. I am sure BTC will be 100000 in the next 1.5 -2 years. That is why bying even at 30000 is a great opportunity, which far-sighted people won`t lose.

the way i view it.. if you can calculate the value window.. you can find the safe zone.

there is actual reason the price topped out at $70k and not $100k
everyone on the planet last year could mine bitcoin for under $70k and so no one would buy bitcoin if they can acquire/mine it cheaper elsewhere.
so the buys dry up.
same at the other end if no one can mine for less. anywhere on the planet. then no one is going to sell for less.
this window is then where the price fits it.
if no one is selling for les and cant mine for less. the will buy it for more

yes the window can change if the mining costs change so keep an eye on the changes. but the price sits inside the window. this means the window can grow up and increase giving more chance of reaching $100k if the window is at or above $100k. and it means if new asics come out that are more efficient or that the higher cost miners drop out giving more coin share per block to the remaining miners it can make mining cheaper which then allows the price to come down. because they are more able to sell.

now imagine you have $XX k to invest .. and you found the window is $15k-$70k
decide to split up the window..
(in this scenario you have yet to see the market price. you only know the window)

your willing to risk 1% at the top and more % at the bottom
EG
35% 25% 15% 10% 8% 4% 2% 1%
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15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

where by you are not throwing it all in. but instead taking opportunity based on risk. where by you always have spare funds left. to take more opportunity.

(in this scenario you NOW look at the price to see where it fits in the window)

we are in the green area right now. so for now dont measure out 1% to leave for the top end. you might aswell re-evaluate and change the % at the bottom end to take the opportunity.
for instance. put that 15% 10% 8% 4% 2% 1% above the current price. into numbers between the bottom of the current window upto  where you might say your willing to still buy at EG all of the green and some orange if the price goes up. and re-jig the % accordingly

but if the price was in the red zone when you first look at market prices(imagine scenario you entered last year). then you would only risk the small percentages and leave the large percentages at the bottom for when the correction occurs so that you can take those opportunities.

..
what you dont want to do is say only invest 5% at $21k because you think/hope that it will drop to then put 95% in.. can leave you in regret if the price rises and you only invested 5%.. however investing 95% at say $30k but then it went down to $21k then to $17k then to $21 again. means you regret the 95% you already spent and only have 5% left.
so spread the percentage to fit the opportunity and risk where you are probably happier to have invested 25% at $21k.. more so then investing just 5% and hoping it drops one more time

[Zilon]

This is where investment plan is necessary. The different trends comes with their own FOMO. The Noob cycle you described is a typical life of a new crypto investor or lets say a less experienced investor who doesn't understand how prices move and what controls them. The idea is to buy as cheap as possible with the aim of selling when the highs begin to set in.

No one can accurately tell what the best dip will fall to, the question an average investor should consider answering is at what price will they buy and will not regret if the price keeps falling. It is similar to answering the question how much can you afford to lose. But in this case an amount that you can comfortably buy bitcoin at with the mind of hodling no matter how low the price keeps falling to.

[boyptc]

It's hard to see the bottom and that's why DCA is there to save those worries. But I get the whole point of it when it's totally dropped to the actual bottom and people say that it's dead.

The crave is no longer there and instead of being optimistic with its opportunity, they get tired of waiting and just settle for good and say that it's dead and means that they're no longer interested.

Not until, the actual recovery comes in.

[Mahanton]

*Bitcoin drops 10%*  -  "I'll wait for it to drop further"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "it's going to drop more"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "I'll finally buy at another 10% drop"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "looks like it's going to drop further"

*Bitcoin drops another 20%*  -  "I'm not buying. bitcoin is dead"

*Bitcoin reaches the price floor, then rises slowly for months an months*  -  "I'll wait for the dip"



- repeat after every halving cycle -

Its a never ending cycle even not noobs or lets say those who do have experience will really be having this very common impression and mindset towards the market which isnt
something surprising because market is unpredictable on the first place which do basically means that pointing out the bottom was always been a challenge or something
you cant really able to deal off with it easily. Waiting for the dip or going for the bottom is what we do go all after all the time even short traders or swing traders do really
mind off and not really just solely focusing on current trends and current fundamentals or events.

[CryptSafe]

This is an interesting topic though.  I know many have had this experience then as a new bee in the system. As an inexperienced trader, you just jump into the market without ful analysis to know when to buy and when to sell. When the market is heading down then you panic sell  turning to paper hands. Nobody can tell the bottom line of Crypto inThe market as it is  very volatile and  fluctuations not as clear as it used to be. That is why you are advised to use your spare funds you could afford loosing so as not to start blaming anyone for your loss.

[franky1]

Nobody can tell the bottom line of Crypto inThe market as it is  very volatile and  fluctuations not as clear as it used to be.

the price does fluctuate. but there are ways to find the current bottom of the value window that the price might go down to. (yes price bottom is different to the value bottom) (and yes the value window bottom also changes but not at the same volatility/rate as the price)

take PoS coins.
because they are CPU created blocks thus CPU rewarded coins. you can calculate the underlying cost.
(hint its alot lot less then PoW based coins)

you can work out how long it takes for each person to have signed a PoS block and how many times in that time they signed. and worked out the base cost of signing a block.. where its just math of time X kwh of a normal desktop pc

take the scenario of when ethereum 'detonate's to PoS from PoW
if you do the math you will see the bottom value window drop from a few $thousand.. to just a few $$.. so expect that ethereum to have a major correction/dip/crash when it changes to PoS when suddenly people staking can make blocks and get rewards very very cheaply and i mean very cheaply

[kamvreto]

A cycle that will never end, this is because it does not use technical analysis, if you use technical analysis the limits of support will be visible, so you can wait for the price to drop to the lowest price.

In the end, every time they wait for a decline that never ends, they will throw away in vain, make a Cut loss because their psychology will be disturbed and say "sell before it goes deeper".

[Adbitco]

This most common issues we are having overtimes; do we call it procrastination yet always waiting for the dip but refuses to maximized the free chances that came across them all they do is to say I will buy when more dip but the time is now instead not paying heed to it.

[Retiicle]

Many investors wait for a dip to invest in the crypto market. Cryptomarket being highly volatile, are profitable. Investors seeking for potential opportunities for investing in the crypto market wait for the market to go down.

[onecall123]

BTC is overwhelmingly viewed the same way by a majority. There's nothing new about this. We've all heard it before and we'll hear it again. Bear markets aren't new, nor are they close to their lowest point. Like always, it will bounce back and probably reach new highs. It hasn't stopped since 2011 and it hasn't stopped since then. However, I'm hopeful about the adoption of walk streets. At least, that's my hope. Having been long since 2016, I remain so.

[davis196]

Is this some kind of reddit meme you are posting here(without the pictures)?
Most of the newbie traders don't know what to do so they just follow the trends. Following a market trend is the wrong way to make money via trading. On the other hand, being cautious and waiting for a lower price is way better than jumping on a FOMO phase and buying when the price is at ATH.
The traders, who were saying "Bitcoin is at 60K, it's going to get above 100K, I'm buying!" are way worse than the traders, who are saying "I will wait for the dip". Making fun of traders who are just cautious is kinda cringe, if you ask me.
The crypto winter will continue and there will be more price drops, so we can't judge or blame the investors for not buying.

[asimi.io]

Bitcoin local bottom is very close  its a good sign and btc hold this position we may see a good rally upside.

[buwaytress]

Fixing it for you, any noob can come in and DCA at any time, enjoy a stress-free life and long-term happiness.

*Bitcoin drops 10%*  -  "Nice! I get a 1.1x bonus on my DCA buy"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "Nice! I get > 1.2x bonus on my DCA buy"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "Awesome, an entire 1/3 bonus on my DCA"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "50% DCA bonus? Happy"

*Bitcoin drops another 20%*  -  "DCA, best choice ever."

*Bitcoin reaches the price floor, then rises slowly for months and months*  -  "Ah well, it was nice while it lasted, now I get to see every past buy appreciate"

[Betwrong]

~

That's a good advice actually. There's no doubt that Bitcoin will start rising at one point, and a new ATH will be reached, as it always happens. And since we can't know the BTC bottom for sure, starting buying when it's below $20k is a good idea. Not with all your money allocated for the investment, but maybe with 5% of it at a time. Wait a week, do it again. I'd say, you are very lucky if you manage to invest half of the allocated money at Bitcoin price below $30k.

Concidering that the price was at ATH last fall, which was near 70k, and also it has been between 45-60 for a long time last year and the beggining of this year, I believe that 20000 is a relly good chance to enter the market. Bitcoin shows growth in the long term perspective, this is undoubtable, that is why all the pessimistic scenarios about the crash to 0 look rediculous to me. I am sure BTC will be 100000 in the next 1.5 -2 years. That is why bying even at 30000 is a great opportunity, which far-sighted people won`t lose.

I agree, anything below $30k is already deep enough to start buying. But, as I suggested earlier, it's better to do it step by step. "Despacito" got almost 8 billion views not accidentally. Going slowly never hurts. Buying with all your money at once is hardly a wise move, but thinking that even $20k isn't low enough is greediness in my opinion.

[Note3]

*Bitcoin drops 10%*  -  "I'll wait for it to drop further"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "it's going to drop more"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "I'll finally buy at another 10% drop"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "looks like it's going to drop further"

*Bitcoin drops another 20%*  -  "I'm not buying. bitcoin is dead"

*Bitcoin reaches the price floor, then rises slowly for months an months*  -  "I'll wait for the dip"



- repeat after every halving cycle -

And after that you will realize that you have lost an opportunity because BTC goes up and continues to rise, what you have to understand is that the price will not always go down and it won't always go up, don't think too wisely if you think you can guess the bottom correctly.

[Oasisman]

*Bitcoin drops 10%*  -  "I'll wait for it to drop further"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "it's going to drop more"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "I'll finally buy at another 10% drop"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "looks like it's going to drop further"

*Bitcoin drops another 20%*  -  "I'm not buying. bitcoin is dead"

*Bitcoin reaches the price floor, then rises slowly for months an months*  -  "I'll wait for the dip"

- repeat after every halving cycle -

Not just for newbie. I knew someone who has been engaging into crypto not financially but just for discussions and speculations. But he's afraid of putting his money even to Btc.
He keeps missing the dip, coz everytime the market is experiencing a massive bearish run he automatically thought Bitcoin is dead.
So, you see. Bitcoin and crypto is not for everyone. Not all those who personally knew Bitcoin have invested and find a good opportunity during the dip. Not everyone who missed the dip is a newbie as well.

[Desmong]

The price of Bitcoin had fallen so drastically and now some persons still don't believe that the market is already at the dip. Many speculators still think that the market is going to go down more when the price had already fallen too dip. Actually we don't know where the market is heading to but I think the market is already at the dip and we need to buy now before everything go too bullish before our eyes.

[Ziskinberg]

The price of Bitcoin had fallen so drastically and now some persons still don't believe that the market is already at the dip. Many speculators still think that the market is going to go down more when the price had already fallen too dip. Actually we don't know where the market is heading to but I think the market is already at the dip and we need to buy now before everything go too bullish before our eyes.

And besides, you can't assume that was the bottom or we already reached it, perhaps nobody can tell as everything we have is just speculations and unreal. I'll go buying this time not because I taught we are at the bottom already but what I think is that someday the market will look good and bullish again, I just preparing myself and investing more while the price is cheap.
As to whether people think there is a bottom or not, many still miss their chance because of that ideology. It must be changed, though.

[AicecreaME]

*Bitcoin drops 10%*  -  "I'll wait for it to drop further"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "it's going to drop more"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "I'll finally buy at another 10% drop"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "looks like it's going to drop further"

*Bitcoin drops another 20%*  -  "I'm not buying. bitcoin is dead"

*Bitcoin reaches the price floor, then rises slowly for months an months*  -  "I'll wait for the dip"



- repeat after every halving cycle -

This is why oftentimes, those people who want to invest in bitcoin miss their chance to actually invest. People are somewhat greedy and fearful at the same time. They want to profit but they are scared of losing. At the same time, they want to invest, but they want it to the lowest possible value they expect and predict bitcoin will have. However, the moment it reached and even go beyond their expectations, they become fearful instead of grabbing the opportunity. And when they missed, they will utter many what if's and feel tremendous regret later on.

This is why it's important not to only decide in investing because of the hype. Someone must b knowledgeable before making an investment. Entering in a good price position even if it's not the lowest possible point wiil still give you a profit over time most especially if you intend to invest for the long term.

[virasisog]

I have committed this kind of mistake when I was a newbie in Bitcoin investing. I was afraid to make a mistake not knowing that fearing the market is already a wrong decision. Most newbies go through this habit of waiting and missing the right opportunity to buy but as chances go by, we learn from these mistakes. We'll be able to notice that the bear season is already an open opportunity for everyone to buy and not wait further. If we'll always fear the market, we'll end up with regrets every time the prices recover.

[romero121]

Not the noobs, even the users who have been into the market for a longer time period does the same. Even when the price reaches low, people will look for further crash. This happens with users, for the reason to accumulate more if the market crashes. Most of the people doing this were the low volume holders who spend on investment sacrificing more funds allocated for life needs.

[bitzizzix]

I'm sure a lot of investors make purchases when the bitcoin price keeps dropping and when they buy it they assume it's the lowest price, but in reality the price keeps going down and down.
we never know and can't predict accurately how much bitcoin price will go down, and for me as long as i start buying bitcoin in a decline below 50% i won't regret it and if it continues to go down i will make gradual purchases where the bitcoin price continues to decline and looks stable. And continue like that until the price of bitcoin reverses direction and stops buying and holds it for the long term.

everyone has a different strategy, and as long as you go long term and buy when the bitcoin price drops or is discounted. Never fear or regret because the price of bitcoin will definitely go up again even if you have to wait a long time and that's for sure and now all you have to do is take advantage of the decline well and hold it for the long term.

[saint_casanova]

Not the noobs, even the users who have been into the market for a longer time period does the same. Even when the price reaches low, people will look for further crash. This happens with users, for the reason to accumulate more if the market crashes. Most of the people doing this were the low volume holders who spend on investment sacrificing more funds allocated for life needs.

True, most small-time investors are like that. They want to get such a tiny amount of price difference hence always wait for a lower price and miss a chance, lol. Baller goes for DCA and looks for any time the price drop down to a certain point that he knows it will turn to be profitable a few years later.

[ChrisPop]

The market is composed of people ('agents') with different interests expressing their intentions in the market through buy and sell orders. Of course there are algorithms and trading bots, but after all they only do what they have been programmed to do by humans. Emotions still play an important rule. Bots and algorithms can be decoupled if the monitors consider so.

So what you're seeing in the market cycles is a wide spectrum of human emotions --> fear, greed and everything in-between
Successful investors need to learn to bypass their emotions and respect their strategy/reasoning.

[Fatunad]

The market is composed of people ('agents') with different interests expressing their intentions in the market through buy and sell orders. Of course there are algorithms and trading bots, but after all they only do what they have been programmed to do by humans. Emotions still play an important rule. Bots and algorithms can be decoupled if the monitors consider so.

So what you're seeing in the market cycles is a wide spectrum of human emotions --> fear, greed and everything in-between
Successful investors need to learn to bypass their emotions and respect their strategy/reasoning.

Bots are for automation which is something that really prevents you on putting your emotion too much specially when you do trade but as said that still you are the ones who would really be setting up commands
into those bots which would really be doing the job for you but of course it does have its cons on which you cant really able to alter it out if there are sudden changes in the market specially news and fundamentals
which you would really be needing to make out some changes of your settings which bot cant really able to do so unlike when you do manual trades which means that it would really be varying on someone
on which one would really fit out on your preference and turns out to be that effective and sustainable in between both things.

[dragonvslinux]

No one can call the Bitcoin bottom, that's how the market works.

Didn't you call the Bitcoin bottom around $20K or something similar a week or so ago on WO, before price dropped to $17.5K? Unless I'm mistaking you for someone else here...

I only reference this as it seems contradictory to what you are now saying, even if i don't think it's a bad position long-term...

Was a good short to those levels though  

[Betwrong]

I have committed this kind of mistake when I was a newbie in Bitcoin investing. I was afraid to make a mistake not knowing that fearing the market is already a wrong decision. Most newbies go through this habit of waiting and missing the right opportunity to buy but as chances go by, we learn from these mistakes. We'll be able to notice that the bear season is already an open opportunity for everyone to buy and not wait further. If we'll always fear the market, we'll end up with regrets every time the prices recover.

This is true for Bitcoin, but not so much for other cryptos or stocks. I mean, it's hard for people not following Bitcoin journey that closely to understand the difference. I kinda pity them because they are missing a great opportunity, but, as our experience shows, we can't do much in regards to helping them understand the difference.

[DeathAngel]

I know what the OP is saying but the bottom probably is not in. Obviously now is still a good time to buy but I still think we go lower. The macro global financial situation is really bad, bitcoin usually follows the bad news with down movements. If a recession is announced by major country govs we will dump.

DCA but hold some cash for likely big down moves.

[Apocollapse]

This is true for Bitcoin, but not so much for other cryptos or stocks. I mean, it's hard for people not following Bitcoin journey that closely to understand the difference. I kinda pity them because they are missing a great opportunity, but, as our experience shows, we can't do much in regards to helping them understand the difference.

Advice is not enough, but mistake will make them to learn for the future.

That's what those people who're faced the 2017/2018 cycle where they're panic and sold their coins on $3-4K while Bitcoin is slowly recovering and break the new ATH, many people doesn't expect this since they thought Bitcoin already death. The best thing for them to learn about Bitcoin is leave they alone and let them choose to sell or hold their coins, then either they sold or hold their coins, they will learn the same lesson.

[ethereumhunter]

If you say you want to buy on the dip, you should forget everything for a moment and stay focused on what you want. So whatever happens in the market later, you have to focus from now on. But if you miss the opportunity to buy on every dip, then you've wasted that good opportunity because the opportunity may not necessarily come the next day. In addition, buying on dip is the desire of many people so you don't have to be afraid because of the trauma of past events.

[KingsDen]

What they said, what they hoped and what they response to when chance comes are differently.

So they hope to see lower price again when Bitcoin is in bull run. When bear market comes and gives them discount price, they are fearful that Bitcoin will fall to zero or to much lower price. They reject to take opportunity and when next bull run comes, they hope again. Then if dips come, bear market comes again, they will reject it again. 

It's funny how the circle repeats and many never learn from it. It is the culture of the crypto market and it will keep happening, that is the reason we have many newbies trooping in during the bull run. They believe since the market is moving, it is an indication that bitcoin will not fail and yhen the price will keep going up and up without dropping again.

Bitcoin is more than a decade and people still never seem to understand how this wonder money works.

[BITCOIN4X]

If you say you want to buy on the dip, you should forget everything for a moment and stay focused on what you want. So whatever happens in the market later, you have to focus from now on. But if you miss the opportunity to buy on every dip, then you've wasted that good opportunity because the opportunity may not necessarily come the next day. In addition, buying on dip is the desire of many people so you don't have to be afraid because of the trauma of past events.

It doesn't matter how you buy and collect bitcoins, if you feel fine then go for it. You can wait to buy every dip, and you can also buy at any price even if it is high, but remember one thing that you have to do it right for the long term and must ignore fluctuations.

Buy more when it goes down, it will be profitable. I think it's a strategy that's been suggested a thousand times and even Saylor still does it. If you believe in the long term potential of bitcoin, collect as much as you can, make some notes and compare them when you want to sell them in the future.

[Mahanton]

If you say you want to buy on the dip, you should forget everything for a moment and stay focused on what you want. So whatever happens in the market later, you have to focus from now on. But if you miss the opportunity to buy on every dip, then you've wasted that good opportunity because the opportunity may not necessarily come the next day. In addition, buying on dip is the desire of many people so you don't have to be afraid because of the trauma of past events.

It doesn't matter how you buy and collect bitcoins, if you feel fine then go for it. You can wait to buy every dip, and you can also buy at any price even if it is high, but remember one thing that you have to do it right for the long term and must ignore fluctuations.

Buy more when it goes down, it will be profitable. I think it's a strategy that's been suggested a thousand times and even Saylor still does it. If you believe in the long term potential of bitcoin, collect as much as you can, make some notes and compare them when you want to sell them in the future.

We do have different takings and decisions on particular conditions and situation in the market whether we do feel out that its the right time or opportunity to get in or would further more considering that there are some analysis or rumors around that it might dip even more further but of course nothing is assured in terms of price movement and this is the hardest part and this had been always the main challenge.
Its true about that crypto noob cycle but honestly even veterans or old timers are experiencing on the same fate too that determining the bottom is always been hard but if you are the ones who do have
that sufficient experience where at least you do know on what you should gonna do with these kind of market condition which is something that really differs compared to others.

[darkangel11]

*Bitcoin drops another 20%*  -  "I'm not buying. bitcoin is dead"

*Bitcoin reaches the price floor, then rises slowly for months an months*  -  "I'll wait for the dip"

I know people who are doing it this way:

-20%, I'll wait!
-70% I'll wait it can still go deeper.
-85% at -90 I'll start buying
-Bounces back 20% - It's not confirmed yet, I'll wait a few weeks, if it doesn't fall I'll buy.
-goes up another 20% - now it's too expensive, already 40% from the bottom, not worth it.


I also know a guy who once bought Bitcoin when it fell from 1k to $500 and then it went down to $250 and he sold with a 50% loss...

[ethereumhunter]

If you say you want to buy on the dip, you should forget everything for a moment and stay focused on what you want. So whatever happens in the market later, you have to focus from now on. But if you miss the opportunity to buy on every dip, then you've wasted that good opportunity because the opportunity may not necessarily come the next day. In addition, buying on dip is the desire of many people so you don't have to be afraid because of the trauma of past events.

It doesn't matter how you buy and collect bitcoins, if you feel fine then go for it. You can wait to buy every dip, and you can also buy at any price even if it is high, but remember one thing that you have to do it right for the long term and must ignore fluctuations.

Buy more when it goes down, it will be profitable. I think it's a strategy that's been suggested a thousand times and even Saylor still does it. If you believe in the long term potential of bitcoin, collect as much as you can, make some notes and compare them when you want to sell them in the future.

Yes, that's what we have to do before the price increases drastically because there is a possibility that the price of bitcoin will get a pump like before. And if the price hasn't gone up too high, we should use it to buy more bitcoins. But related to what is happening now, maybe we should wait until a correction comes so we can buy at a lower price. If a correction comes, buying more bitcoins is a good time. But remember that before making a purchase, we must analyze so we don't buy the wrong one.

[Natalim]

Well, I can't deny myself being like that OP during my newbie time in crypto, no experience, no-how about Bitcoin, I'd just floating in the air making a decision without any basis.

But, I was already learn something from my past and my losing experience. I could relate to some emotions and this newbie behavior, they'll need someone to educate them and change their mindset when it comes to investing crypto. And I hope they could find someone.

[kryptqnick]

I think its greed that drives such behavior. Take the current situation, for example. The price is around $20k, which is more than 3x below the ATH. If you believe that Bitcoin will recover, just like it always did before, it's reasonable to assume that if you buy now, you can expect a 3x profit, if not 4x-5x because the new ATH is normally higher than the last one. That's some wonderful long-term profits which are very likely. But no, people get greedy and start thinking how much more it can be if Bitcoin goes down even lower, in the end not getting anything out of it.

[Betwrong]

*Bitcoin drops another 20%*  -  "I'm not buying. bitcoin is dead"

*Bitcoin reaches the price floor, then rises slowly for months an months*  -  "I'll wait for the dip"

I know people who are doing it this way:

-20%, I'll wait!
-70% I'll wait it can still go deeper.
-85% at -90 I'll start buying
-Bounces back 20% - It's not confirmed yet, I'll wait a few weeks, if it doesn't fall I'll buy.
-goes up another 20% - now it's too expensive, already 40% from the bottom, not worth it.


I also know a guy who once bought Bitcoin when it fell from 1k to $500 and then it went down to $250 and he sold with a 50% loss...

This is the best example I can imagine to show what mistakes can a Bitcoin investor make. I think many people who bought BTC at around $40k are selling now in panic. In fact, they are doing the same mistake as the guy in your story. Panic has never been a good adviser, has never helped in any situation.

As for those who's waiting for even deeper drop to start buying. Well, read the OP, I guess.

[traderethereum]

I think its greed that drives such behavior. Take the current situation, for example. The price is around $20k, which is more than 3x below the ATH. If you believe that Bitcoin will recover, just like it always did before, it's reasonable to assume that if you buy now, you can expect a 3x profit, if not 4x-5x because the new ATH is normally higher than the last one. That's some wonderful long-term profits which are very likely. But no, people get greedy and start thinking how much more it can be if Bitcoin goes down even lower, in the end not getting anything out of it.

Those who don't take this opportunity to buy more bitcoins will regret that by the time the price starts to increase, you will be late to buy and even if you can buy it, you probably won't be able to get the low price.
People will start buying when the price starts to increase and tend to hold it if the price drops back down and just sit back and watch the price go up and down below the price he bought.
But if he's already decided to buy at every price bottom, then there's a chance he'll keep buying if the price goes down further.
This needs to be analyzed further to find the right price so that we can buy it and it's okay if we can't buy at the lowest price because it is very difficult to predict when the price will reach the lowest price.

[Cryptmuster]

I think its greed that drives such behavior. Take the current situation, for example. The price is around $20k, which is more than 3x below the ATH. If you believe that Bitcoin will recover, just like it always did before, it's reasonable to assume that if you buy now, you can expect a 3x profit, if not 4x-5x because the new ATH is normally higher than the last one. That's some wonderful long-term profits which are very likely. But no, people get greedy and start thinking how much more it can be if Bitcoin goes down even lower, in the end not getting anything out of it.

Waiting for a lower price is greed, it is true, but sometimes it can be justified. If the price can still fall to 10k, then the profit may not be x3-x4, but it will already be at least x6-x8. I think that it is already good time to buy bitcoin, but I would not buy for the entire deposit, but only for its part, so that I would have the opportunity to buy more if the price continues to fall. The price of bitcoin has always risen after falls, I hope this will not change in the future.

[bitterguy28]

let them do their things and do yours , why do you care for them if they don't wanna learn at all?

it has been so many chances that things like these happens yet they don't manage to decide in rightful way.

just always remember that There is no constant situation in crypto , but one thing is specially mentioned always that Bitcoin is the safest currency to invest with specially in long term cycle.

[Bitstar_coin]

No one can call the Bitcoin bottom, that's how the market works. The only thing you can relate to is the ongoing market situation. The current economy is on the collapse and you cannot call $18k a bottom.
In all the previous cycles, it retraced almost 80%+ and now in the occasion of an upcoming recession, It should follow the same which takes the bottom near about $12k per BTC.
In the end, I would say don't wait for the bottom, start DCAing.

Some people like to think they can catch the bottom, instead of dca at every dip they will claim to be waiting for the bottom something even the top btc analyst are not able to specifically indicate.
it is because of such opinion that makes some investors to miss out entirely on the dip and end up buying on the way up. when the market is reversing it does it so fast you will be left to wondered.