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Author Topic: Is this true or not?  (Read 487 times)
franky1
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August 23, 2022, 04:23:53 PM
Last edit: August 23, 2022, 08:19:54 PM by franky1
 #21

BTC is not a hedge against inflation if you bought in the ATH and didn't hodl for 4 years at least.

Was it a good idea to buy at 69k? No, unless you plan to hodl for 4 years (until 2025).

firstly inflation/deflation is not based on the daily/weekly pris whims. its more about the long term view of 1 year-1 decade view of value vs product purchase ability

yes its not smart to "buy the high". and if you look at the amount of orders happening at the $69k-$70k range. not many people did actually buy the high.. thats why it topped out and ran out of buyer energy to stop going any higher.

for those unlucky few that used emotion instead of logic to have bought at the high. thats not a flaw of deflation or a fault of bitcoin. thats a flaw in human emotion and decision.

that said. those unlucky few will have to wait a bit longer to realise the deflationary effect as they will have to wait longer for deflation to catch up to that temporary price speculative bubble moment.

on the flip side not many got lucky to "buy the bottom" who get to see deflationary action profit them sooner.
but again this is not that deflationary effect is a daily/monthly effect thats noticeable that soon. its a long term view of 1 year/1decade. where it start to be felt by the masses in a noticeable way.. and only a few people got lucky to have picked the right temporary cheap rate to get their value noticed sooner

bitcoins deflationary rate has nothing to do with the price whims of the daily/monthly changes. as thats just speculative changes within the price window. what is deflation is the subtle hidden change to the price window the price moves within. where the lowest bottom edge of the window was lower last cycle than it is this cycle. slowly moving up each cycle

EG, the windows:
2009-2012  $0.01-$32
2013-2016  $13-$1200
2017-2020  $750-$20k
2020-now   $4.8k-$70k
where by the deflationary increase is

2009-2012  $0.01
2013-2016  $13
2017-2020  $750
2020-now   $4.8k

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Please do your own research & respect what is written here as both opinion & information gleaned from experience. many people replying with insults but no on-topic content substance, automatically are 'facepalmed' and yawned at
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August 23, 2022, 07:53:15 PM
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 #22

for those unlucky few that used emotion instead of logic to have bought at the high. thats not a flaw of deflation or a fault of bitcoin. thats a flaw in human emotion and decision.

on the flip side not many got lucky to "buy the bottom" who get to see deflationary action profit them sooner.wly moving up each cycle
I wasn't "lucky" when I bought the March 2020 bottom. I used logic, not emotion. Didn't even buy the COVID fearmongering.

I was studying BTC for years and just waited for the right moment... the COVID economy meltdown (black swan event) gave me that chance.
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August 23, 2022, 08:03:39 PM
 #23

For the early adopters, there's no argument needed as we've proven that bitcoin is a good hedge against the inflation. But as said to those that we can say, late and ATH buyers, they are yet to prove this one. But if they do such buying more while it's low and holding it until the price gets over their buying price, they can prove to themselves that bitcoin is literally a good hedge against inflation.

BTC is not a hedge against inflation if you bought in the ATH and didn't hodl for 4 years at least.

Was it a good idea to buy at 69k? No, unless you plan to hodl for 4 years (until 2025).
I agree, and those that have bought at high requires more patience to prove to themselves if they truly believe unless they losses that patience and sold at dip with losses. Can't blame them for that decision though.

Almost nobody wants to buy during a bear market, everyone wants to buy during euphoria:
Exactly. When the market shows opportunity, they won't bite it as they think that it'll get lower but look at them when the market shows dominance and bulls again, they're the quickest to be hyped.

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August 24, 2022, 09:13:39 AM
 #24

But is what this man talked about be true?
I guess it's all just assumptions a person makes based on what he's learned.
Maybe other people will have other assumptions that are different from that person.
What is clear is that we will not know whether the assumption is right or wrong because we have not lived what it is assumed to be.
So rather than go into that assumption, we should enjoy the journey of bitcoin from time to time while we still have the opportunity.
I don't think too much about those assumptions because it would take a lot of time to think about them.

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August 24, 2022, 02:41:51 PM
 #25

Flat out not true.

With things like the lightning network more and more people are transacting without their wallets / addresses being touched. Addresses / wallets are just one small indicator of what is going on.
As more people use LN for day to day transactions BTC price will change. But there will be limited visibility on chain with addresses / wallets.

Some people like LN, some people don't. At this point it's 'whatever', it's being used and it's growing so all other things aside lots of small transactions are going to matter more to theBTC price then a few larger ones.
That's true, we are in a period where LN will not be forced to be used, hell people still use Legacy network for bitcoin and pay tens of dollars just for a simple transaction but they prefer it that way and they can do that. We are mainly using segwit and bech32 addresses, and pay very little amounts these days which is also fine as well.

In the near future, LN could become more popular overtime because it's cheap but I guarantee you that it will not be a big deal considering we will always have options. This will result with bunch of people using bunch of different ways and not really everyone using the same thing but it's all bitcoin and its blockchain nodes for sure.

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August 24, 2022, 02:47:05 PM
 #26

hell people still use Legacy network for bitcoin and pay tens of dollars just for a simple transaction but they prefer it that way and they can do that. We are mainly using segwit and bech32 addresses, and pay very little amounts these days which is also fine as well.

In the near future, LN could become more popular overtime because it's cheap but I guarantee you that it will not be a big deal considering we will always have options. This will result with bunch of people using bunch of different ways and not really everyone using the same thing but it's all bitcoin and its blockchain nodes for sure.
Why does Binance charge cheaper fees for legacy vs SegWit (0.0002 vs 0.0005 BTC)?

https://www.binance.com/en/fee/cryptoFee

Does it make any sense? AFAIK, they also batch transactions...
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August 24, 2022, 04:31:30 PM
 #27

As the adoption continues, the volatility has been decreasing.
It is not actually correlated with adoption.

When an asset has higher and higher price, it becomes more expensive and the volatility should be consequently smaller. At least the difference between two all time highs should be smaller. It's natural.

Bitcoin now has price in thousands of dollar but you can see its in altcoins now. Altcoins are easier to have x10, x100 in bull run and it is exactly what Bitcoin experienced with its past bull run.

Higher price means higher marketcap and it's harder to manipulate higher market capped projects.
You are right Bitcoin is less volatile because Bitcoin price is high at the moment, what most Bitcoin price analysts failed to include in their analysis is the fact that, the present price of Bitcoin is an all time high in the past and this is why Bitcoin is less volatile compared to altcoin. So for long term base bitcoin is consider to be the best option since the price volatility ratios is low,  as it stands Bitcoin inflation ratio is lower than that of the United States. And talking about altcoin there just garbage that can easily get pumped and dump at will. When Elon musk thought Bitcoin to be like dogecoin he made is statement and coincidentally the price dropped significantly and many believe that Elon musk statement contributed to the drop in the price of Bitcoin, but than Bitcoin have maintained a strong resistance level that did not allow Bitcoin price to drop below the previous two all time high before Elon musk came into the scene.
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August 25, 2022, 06:05:33 AM
 #28

The number of BTC wallets doesn't matter. It can be 1 billion or 100 million.
There are three things necessary for Bitcoin to become hedge against inflation: increasing demand, better utility and decreased price volatility.
I know that the demand for Bitcoin cannot increase forever and there will be ups and downs, but the investors need to recognize Bitcoin as an investment that is secure and promising.
The high price volatility is stopping many investors into putting their money in BTC. I think that BTC will remain a high risk volatile asset forever.
The real anti-inflation assets like gold and real estate have less price volatility and bigger utility than BTC. Maybe that's why they are preferred over BTC.

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August 26, 2022, 10:57:46 AM
 #29

The number of BTC wallets doesn't matter. It can be 1 billion or 100 million.
There are three things necessary for Bitcoin to become hedge against inflation: increasing demand, better utility and decreased price volatility.
I know that the demand for Bitcoin cannot increase forever and there will be ups and downs, but the investors need to recognize Bitcoin as an investment that is secure and promising.
The high price volatility is stopping many investors into putting their money in BTC. I think that BTC will remain a high risk volatile asset forever.
The real anti-inflation assets like gold and real estate have less price volatility and bigger utility than BTC. Maybe that's why they are preferred over BTC.

You mean bitcoin is not and never will be an inflation hedge. I think on the contrary, from the beginning bitcoin has been a hedge against inflation, the price movement of bitcoin is only short term. Looking at the bitcoin price over the past 13 years from a coin that has no value and is currently priced above $20k, there is no other asset class with such good growth over the long term. Gold and real estate have certain utilities in life, but bitcoin also has utilities that neither gold nor real estate have. Depending on the needs of each person and each case, no type is better than the other.



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August 26, 2022, 11:51:10 AM
 #30

Bitcoin was less than $1 before, it got to $10, $100, $1000, $10000 and reach all-time-time of $69000 last year, now at $21300. Is that not an hedge against inflation? Bitcoin is highly volatile
It is highly volatile, but it does appreciate in value overtime, hereby it does stand against inflation (US dollar's, not its). Whoever bought when it was valuated at less than $20,000 has somewhat protected himself against inflation. Bitcoin gives more than it take over the long term; charts say so, not just me and Oshosondy.

That's correct it already is an inflation hedge, but you have to look at periods of 3-4 years to see it. I'm 100% sure that it's going to be worth more than 20k after the next halving, so whoever buys today will have more in terms of purchasing power in 2024.

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Cointelegraph really disappoints me.

All those bitcoin news sites disappoint me, especially the speculative articles that are like 99.9% wrong. Last time I read them they wer esaying that Bitcoin has broken some bearish trend and is going for 28k USD. A few days later it went down never even reaching 26k.

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August 27, 2022, 10:18:22 AM
 #31

for those unlucky few that used emotion instead of logic to have bought at the high. thats not a flaw of deflation or a fault of bitcoin. thats a flaw in human emotion and decision.

on the flip side not many got lucky to "buy the bottom" who get to see deflationary action profit them sooner.wly moving up each cycle
I wasn't "lucky" when I bought the March 2020 bottom. I used logic, not emotion. Didn't even buy the COVID fearmongering.

I was studying BTC for years and just waited for the right moment... the COVID economy meltdown (black swan event) gave me that chance.
How can you say that you are not lucky when you already bought the bottom? Or maybe you mean to say is that the price drops for more after you are done buying? If so then, it should gave you a lesson to not all in when buying but you can choose to keep some of your funds in case the price plunge for more. Logic is truly the ones that we will be using here not emotion. Being emotional is in fact a hindrance here.

@OP that wasn't true. People can believe what they want. Many people believe that bitcoin is an hedge to inflation, this is why they are transferring their fiat money on here. There is no need to wait before we get to 1b wallets.

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August 27, 2022, 01:34:01 PM
 #32

What tools do they used to estimate the volume of bitcoin address and how do they know is 1 billion address?
I think they are giving a random speculation.

Bitcoin was less than $1 before, it got to $10, $100, $1000, $10000 and reach all-time-time of $69000 last year, now at $21300. Is that not an hedge against inflation? Bitcoin is highly volatile, but those that hold it for long see it as a hedge against inflation.

Bitcoin prices has never followed these sequence. There have been lots of stories and rumors concerning bitcoin though not all story that works accordingly. So lets assumes that it's a randomly speculated analysis.

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August 27, 2022, 05:38:41 PM
 #33

Okay, let us assume that bitcoin wallet one day would get to 1 billion. I assume this because if Glassnode indicate only 1 billion bitcoin address to be existing for now, that means that less than 1 billion wallets are existing for now.

But is what this man talked about be true?
The statement may likely be true, because several wallets are been downloaded every blessed day which has an address, and moreover, there are 7.97 billion people in this world of which about 4 billion are kids, whereas the remaining 3.97 are adults, which if you are to sum up the total number of crypto users who own a Bitcoin wallets, we could probably be up to 100million worldwide, of which each users own at least 5 to 10 Bitcoin wallets which has an address (i.e Coinbase, Trust wallet, Binance, Kucoin, Remitano e.t.c) including faucet, casino wallets addresses and dormant wallet addresses that has never done transaction before, the statement could be true. So I don't doubt it

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