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Author Topic: Concern over market fluctuations affecting a 5year bitcoin investment plan.  (Read 130 times)
Cryptomultiplier (OP)
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August 06, 2022, 09:19:54 PM
 #1

 I intend to commit a fixed amount of my income to acquire a fraction of bitcoin (no matter the rate at the time), for keeps over a 5year duration, without withdrawing or making a trade with it. I.e I will buy a certain amount of bitcoin every new month and leave it there until 5 years elapse.
I am a bit concerned, however, that the market fluctuations which lead to what makes up the bear and bull seasons may affect the projected yield I have estimated over this stipulated period.

What are some steps I need to take, to ensure I protect my investment from possible loss over this 5year duration? Is the intent to commit to a monthly investment overseeing this period, likely to backfire in any way? Should I be scared of a market crash incident?

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According to NIST and ECRYPT II, the cryptographic algorithms used in Bitcoin are expected to be strong until at least 2030. (After that, it will not be too difficult to transition to different algorithms.)
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348Judah
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August 06, 2022, 09:29:24 PM
 #2

My advice for you, always buy the dip and if you must make s buy on monthly basis then it should be for trading advisably and not on investment except for a very long one, buy and hold is good when at bear market, then you need a buying strategy or pattern, not just for you to buy at month end but to be able to speculate well on the appropriate time to set in

R


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August 06, 2022, 09:44:25 PM
 #3

What are some steps I need to take, to ensure I protect my investment from possible loss over this 5year duration? Is the intent to commit to a monthly investment overseeing this period, likely to backfire in any way? Should I be scared of a market crash incident?


No one can guarantee profits/a good return in any investment. Cryptocurrency are a speculative asset class and come with risks of losing your funds (the market has performed well so far but no one can know whether it'll definitely continue or not).

If you're investing with small change you don't care about then it's fine to invest and just hold onto it, if you're investing with more than you can afford to (and maybe something you could end up selling at a loss) you're much better diversifying into more stable investments like stocks or a bank account/bond with reasonable interest.
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August 06, 2022, 09:51:04 PM
 #4

Investing over longer period of time will simply make your entry price a weighted sum of your purchases. This isn't statistically increasing or reducing your gains or losses in any way. In hindsight you would be able to tell if it was better or worse than making a lump sum investment, but this is meaningless.

Bitcoin is not a stock, which can be traded based on data about its company, it's not a commodity which can be traded based on economic data about markets and industries. Bitcoin is pure speculation. This is why it's so volatile, unpredictable and has huge bull runs and crashes. There's no investment strategies that are mathematically better than any other.

If you can afford to hold Bitcoin for 5 years and not sell it for some reason, you will likely be rewarded. And if in 5 years Bitcoin is not higher than it is now, then you just accept the loss and move on.

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August 06, 2022, 11:14:21 PM
 #5

You shouldn't be scared of crashes, as you've said, you intend to plan to buy with a fix amount and when you're there and it happens then that's an opportunity for you to buy.

As you keep it for long, do not forget to buy hardware wallets and only two of them are my suggestions which you can choose:

1. Trezor wallet
2. Ledger wallet

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August 06, 2022, 11:45:30 PM
 #6

What are some steps I need to take, to ensure I protect my investment from possible loss over this 5year duration? Is the intent to commit to a monthly investment overseeing this period, likely to backfire in any way? Should I be scared of a market crash incident?

With the volatile nature of cryptocurrencies, I suggest ditching the idea of "leaving your coins and not touching them" and sell them as soon as you hit the profit. The good thing about volatility is you can take advantage of multiple short-term investments in a span of a relatively short amount of time compared to any investment platform.

Though I also recommend HODLing, if you are really concerned of price fluctuations in the 5-year span, then better do short-term investments and sell it once profits arises. At this kind of method, you avoid losing more money and earn lots. The only downside is, you better observe and check regularly the price of BTCs in order to maximize profit.

R


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August 06, 2022, 11:48:43 PM
 #7

A 5-year investment plan is an excellent way to get into a new asset class without having to put up your life savings. However, just like any other investment, there are risks involved.

Bitcoin is a volatile investment. It has been volatile since its inception. Every time there has been a major bad news event or high profile hack, the price of bitcoin tends to drop dramatically. If you are planning on investing in Bitcoin for the long-term, you need to be prepared for fluctuations in price. I would recommend that you do not invest any more than you can afford to lose. I know it is a cliche, but it is true, especially when it comes to investing in cryptocurrencies. The real issue is that there is no guarantee that bitcoin will continue to be valuable for long-term investing. It could crash tomorrow and lose most of its value overnight (like many other currencies have done), or it could go up for years without stopping (like many other currencies have done). So if you are going to invest in Bitcoin, do so because you believe in its potential rather than just because it might be trendy at the moment.

And by the way, you should not base your investment decisions on opinions from random people on the Internet.

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August 07, 2022, 02:44:01 AM
 #8

I intend to commit a fixed amount of my income to acquire a fraction of bitcoin (no matter the rate at the time), for keeps over a 5year duration, without withdrawing or making a trade with it. I.e
To do this, you must control yourself and your coin very well.
  • To control yourself: you should put your coins in places that can not give you instant trading orders. Such as a non custodial wallet, then if you want to trade, you must make a deposit transaction to an exchange, wait for 1 to 3 confirmations before you can be allowed to trade it.
  • To control your coins: you should use non custodial wallet.
  • Two factors interact with each other

Quote
I will buy a certain amount of bitcoin every new month and leave it there until 5 years elapse.
You are doing Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)

Quote
I am a bit concerned, however, that the market fluctuations which lead to what makes up the bear and bull seasons may affect the projected yield I have estimated over this stipulated period.
When you DCA, you don't mind much about price fluctuations or big changes in short term. If you have a right mind to start with DCA, you wouldn't have this question.

Quote
What are some steps I need to take, to ensure I protect my investment from possible loss over this 5year duration?
Historically, just historically, not futuristic, if  you hodl your Bitcoin more than 4 years and 7 months (see the hodl line), you don't get loss.

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August 07, 2022, 03:54:38 AM
 #9

You're DCAing — you don't expect to be in profit 100% of the time especially early on. That's literally the point of averaging — so you can also buy at lower prices. If anything, you'd want a market crash, so your average buy price goes down.


What are some steps I need to take, to ensure I protect my investment from possible loss over this 5year duration?
You don't. You just make sure you have enough money on the side for you to not be forced to sell your bitcoin if it's the case that you suddenly need money.

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August 07, 2022, 05:51:36 AM
 #10

What are some steps I need to take, to ensure I protect my investment from possible loss over this 5year duration? Is the intent to commit to a monthly investment overseeing this period, likely to backfire in any way? Should I be scared of a market crash incident?
It looks like you are trying to use the Dollar Cost Averaging strategy but at the same time you are scared of market fluctuations, which does not make sense. The main point of DCA is to enable you acquire an asset at specific intervals over time without you having to worry about market crash incidents. What you are aiming at is long term, not short term.

It's been so far so go for anyone who invests in Bitcoin long term.

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August 07, 2022, 06:16:25 AM
 #11

In order to stay away from the psychological effects of "greed, fear, uncertainty", establishing a trading principle or strategy will enable you to maximize your profits, no matter how small they are, and thus determine:

 - The amount of return on investment.
 - That the amount invested is not afraid of losing it, such as the money that you allocate for travel and tourism.
 - To have a reason to invest, for example, you invest in Bitcoin for the university fees of your children.
 - Have an understanding of the basics of trading and Bitcoin.
 - Each drop in price is an opportunity to buy more and vice versa.

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August 07, 2022, 09:12:16 AM
 #12

When you're want to invest Bitcoin and scared with the market fluctuation, I'd say it's better if you not start buy Bitcoin since you're not even understand what investment is. Any investment will always have volatility, but it's just different with how huge the fluctuation is.

There's nothing way to protect your investment for the next 5 years, even Satoshi itself don't know how much Bitcoin will worth on 2027 etc.

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August 07, 2022, 10:18:09 AM
 #13

If you're investing for profit (and that's obviously the reason), the only thing that doesn't make sense to me personally is that you don't intend to sell until 5 years have passed. If we take into account that Bitcoin reached its highest values in the period after each halving, then we can assume that this will happen again in the second half of 2024 or the beginning of 2025, and again in the year of the next halving, 2028.

If you stick strictly to your 5-year plan, it is possible that you will sell BTC during a bear market and profit significantly less than what you could have done if you had reacted at the right moment.

If you ask what you can expect in a period of 5 years, then you are asking a question to which no one can give you a concrete answer. The probability that good and bad things will happen in that period of time is something we cannot escape from, but if you only invest as much as you can afford to lose, you don't need to worry too much - life itself is a risk.

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August 07, 2022, 12:03:44 PM
 #14

Buying bitcoin periodically could be a good idea, but it's best to consider buying when the value is lower. Your target duration is long term, but be mindful of the fact that there are no certainties as the crypto market is volatile and unpredictable. Looking back at five years back, I'm confident that the next five years would be better, but that's not a financial advice. It's best to follow your intuition and buy at the best time possible to get the best deal.
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August 07, 2022, 01:01:04 PM
 #15

You did the DCA strategy which in my opinion is good with a predetermined 5-year term but I hope it can be passed with the obstacles that will exist later meaning you can make long-term investments with a duration that is not small and see the results in 2027.

I think to prevent your worries because the market is afraid of fluctuations and the bear market is coming it is inevitable we will feel this in the next 5 years because we don't know how to prevent this from happening, because investing is a risk so you have to be prepared without the aforementioned worries.

Pretty consistent with your monthly DCA, I think it will see results from its lowest average purchase.

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August 08, 2022, 02:16:35 PM
 #16

Buying bitcoin periodically could be a good idea, but it's best to consider buying when the value is lower. Your target duration is long term, but be mindful of the fact that there are no certainties as the crypto market is volatile and unpredictable. Looking back at five years back, I'm confident that the next five years would be better, but that's not a financial advice. It's best to follow your intuition and buy at the best time possible to get the best deal.
As long as you believe in the price bitcoin will return to ATH it doesn't matter if you start buying on this day. Especially your project is long-term. History over a period of 4 years of repeat Bitcoin always gets new highs. If you buy at a low price of course you will get the maximum profit. Although this year's period is a little different due to poor global economic problems. But I hope Bitcoin still has confidence as digital gold is better than gold. I expect BTC to be in accumulation and that ATH period continues to exist.
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