Let's have a realistic debate about the highest price of BTC

[feeling sound]

I know it's hard to have an actual realistic debate about the future price of BTC.but based off previous cycles, and economics, what do you think the highest price BTC will achieve is?

I know a lot of Money predictions like 500k by 2023, over a million by 2025 get tossed about. Logically, I think that's some hardcore hopefully. But I would have said that 10 years ago , if you told me the ATH would be over 60k.

Is there a price that BTC is limited to?
Or does the built in scarcity of it insure ever increasing price?
What would One BTC at over 1 million do to worldwide economics?

[Stalker22]

Is there a price that BTC is limited to?

Probably yes. The problem is that nobody knows where that limit is.

Or does the built in scarcity of it insure ever increasing price?

Definitely not. Nothing can ensure an ever increasing price for obvious reasons.

What would One BTC at over 1 million do to worldwide economics?

If each coin is worth one million dollars, the Bitcoin market cap would be valued at about 20 trillion dollars. According to companiesmarketcap.com, the market cap of gold is currently arround $11 T.

[jackg]

Is there a price that BTC is limited to?

I think we should change price to value as a price will rise due to inflation but its value could stay the same.

I think it's worth thinking about bitcoin as if its value and growth are compared more to a stock than to a specific fiat price/market cap and it'll probably start reflecting those more, especially if /when bitcoin becomes more widely adopted.

[darkangel11]

If we're talking about an exchange price at any given moment, there's probably no limit because due to lack of liquidity, if we get a large enough buy order, all existing positions could be wiped and if there was someone who put something like 0.01BTC for sale at the price of 1 million USD, the exchange API will trigger this transaction and show it as the last price. So technically you could see a million dollars tomorrow. Of course this wouldn't be the value, just price, as it was already pointed out by jackg.

[kryptqnick]

Let's try to think what sort of chunk of global economy Bitcoin can reasonably take. It's current market capitalization is 454 billion dollars. The global economy is worth around 86 trillion dollars, so Bitcoin is currently worth 0.5% of the global economy. But there are big companies worth up to $2.51 trillion (Microsoft), which is 3%. Let's be very maximalist and assume that Bitcoin will reach more than any company, up to 10% of the global economy. Neglecting the change in supply (because that change is quite gradual and the vast majority of BTC were mined anyway), that means Bitcoin that reach 20x of its current price (to be worth 10% of the global economy), which is $460,000. Of course, the global economy can rise as well, but its growth is also gradual (it's not like it will rise by a lot any time soon). So there you go, $500,000 is a very generous yet also reasonable price limit, but it's not absolute.
We could set higher percentage than 10, and compare Bitcoin to something else. Then the limit can increase. But I'd still calculate it accounting for the global GDP and for Bitcoin market capitalization.

[hsdjkahskjdh]

Unlimited fiat leaks into limited supply

Realistic price = bitcoin worth unlimited fiat, wake up bruh.

But when the fiat becomes worthless, so does the... $hitcoin.

The best thing bitcoin can do is get farmers like me to accept it at a flat rate for our goods and services.
I do not accept fiat for my peaches or cherries, for over 10 years.
I will always accept 21 million bitcoin for 1 peach.

[BIT-BENDER]

I don’t think the is a price Bitcoin is limited to in the future as we go things evolve and as you said rightly it would be difficult to predict the future highest price Bitcoin would ever achieve why because it won’t at a point stop. Literally Bitcoin has become so useful globally that it may be the essence of financial value than the US dollar this is very possible, but this isn’t to say Bitcoin won’t have bad times in the future, it’s a volatile coin and the price won’t be consistent.

[franky1]

its very very easy

if everyone on the planet including hobby miners with asics that are 2-3 years old (2019+ range)
can all mine for less than X using the worlds regions highest electric price.. then thats the top window people would stil be in the game of deciding it ifs better to mine or buy.

no one would buy coin way higher than other acquisition methods

this has been proven time and time again in the past. the $70k limit was the area of the most expensive mining cost due to high electric costs of places like japan(38cent/kw)

people start to drop off from wanting to buy and everyone else wants to sell for less to out bid each other while still profiting so it topped out at $70k. because buyers dried up, everyone was then a miner/seller

so just run the math on mining costs and you have the answer

enjoy

[NeuroticFish]

so just run the math on mining costs and you have the answer

From what I understand OP wants a prediction for the future price .. no matter how far that future is?
If so, we cannot really predict how energy price will evolve, how the semiconductors and ASICs will evolve... hence, while your logic can be okay for short term, it cannot have enough data for way in the future.

Is there a price that BTC is limited to?

It's very hard to tell. I've seen answer that fiat is unlimited. That's correct, we don't know where inflation can get us. But I don't think that a huge percent of world fiat will ever get locked into Bitcoin, since if that would happen, world fiat would simply get replaced with bitcoin (and that would be one step farther than backing fiat with bitcoin).


So, like some memes show, at the point bitcoin would get to worth a huge amount of money, there may be that there will no longer be that kind of money.