As we see BTC was down before Russia Ukraine war. But it effects mostly BTC and BTC not recovered till now. Shiba inu will be effected if above tension come true. And many more token will be effected.
I don't think that bitcoin will be affected by that so much. If a recession starts and people are in need of more money, it can affect the price negatively. At the same time if there is inflation because of the war, bitcoin could become more valuable. Essentially we can't know what will happen and therefore I think nothing at all will happen.
What you say makes sense but people are not that rational, if China decides to invade Taiwan anytime soon then I think there will be a lot of panic on the markets and people will begin to sell their assets as they will prefer to have somce cash so they can have some flexibility about the measures they can take to protect themselves, so I think a drop in the price of bitcoin is very possible even if I think a recovery will happen soon afterwards.
