Mt Gox Upcoming release of funds to its creditors vs Btc Price

[irfan_pak10]

There is this report by BRL; https://twitter.com/lab_blockchain/status/1557330341139972104
There were 22,560 creditors share total claims of $17 billion with an average claim of ~39btc. Do you think they are going to hold it ?

Well somethings not quite right here, as we're talking about 140K bitcoin that's worth $3.4 billion as of typing, not $17 billion. Unless $10b+ has already been claimed as part of the earlier payout scheme?


(I just realised that the amount credited is lower than the amount claimed, hence $18.4 billion in claims with 140K Bitcoin credited)

MtGox only got 140k btc, Others they lost during the hack. Thats why they are only distributing 140k


Its not about those creditors will sell their 140k coins at once, there were few strategies, if they opted to get paid in cash then the escrow will have to sell the coins at once and that would be the problem. If they opted to get paid in the BTC too, then again, Whales will take benefit of the situation and they will try to dump the btc price to buy back at lower price.

[Ayers]

.... Do you think they are going to hold it ?

They were able to live and wait for years so I won't be surprised if they hold on to it until the next run or longer to maximize their returns.

It's up to them at the end of the day so just be prepared to sell or convert to stable coin if you're too worried about what they will do.

yes people have been waiting a long time to get their wealth back and for years they can also track the movement of bitcoin they see its upside potential
maybe not all will sell their bitcoins once received, those who need the money will sell, those who believe in bitcoin they can continue to hold
it can be seen that the market's reaction to this news is normal and not as harsh as previous speculations

[dragonvslinux]

There is this report by BRL; https://twitter.com/lab_blockchain/status/1557330341139972104
There were 22,560 creditors share total claims of $17 billion with an average claim of ~39btc. Do you think they are going to hold it ?

Well somethings not quite right here, as we're talking about 140K bitcoin that's worth $3.4 billion as of typing, not $17 billion. Unless $10b+ has already been claimed as part of the earlier payout scheme?


(I just realised that the amount credited is lower than the amount claimed, hence $18.4 billion in claims with 140K Bitcoin credited)

MtGox only got 140k btc, Others they lost during the hack. Thats why they are only distributing 140k

Thanks for clarifying that, I thought you were implying $17 billion bitcoin was being distributed, but clearly not.

Its not about those creditors will sell their 140k coins at once, there were few strategies, if they opted to get paid in cash then the escrow will have to sell the coins at once and that would be the problem. If they opted to get paid in the BTC too, then again, Whales will take benefit of the situation and they will try to dump the btc price to buy back at lower price.

As I referenced, Fortress were offering to buy up these coins "in advance" for 80% of value, in March 2021 when price was around $60K, as also referenced in the report:

At the same time, it needs to be kept in mind that especially private equity firm Fortress but also other companies bought up Mt. Gox creditor claims at a discount to the nominal value.

This brings me back to your question: will the creditors hodl? I think they would have already jumped at the opportunity over a year ago to sell to Fortress and others. Why would they be selling now, if they didn't take the opportunity to sell when they could over a year ago at much better prices? Sure there will be a few who regret not selling that now will... but otherwise I generally agree with the outlook:

The same argument of hedging holds true for large creditors: If they intended to sell, they likely have already done so at least in part – either to one of the companies buying up such claims or through the opening of a short position. Hence, it can be speculated that the release of the Mt. Gox coins might not have such a significant impact on the market as it might seem at first glance

Returning back to my original questions, how much of this BTC has already been sold... this seems unclear still. What is clearer is that the distribution will have much less effect on the spot market as I speculated sometime ago, given there are equity firms offering to buy up these coins for a discount. I imagine now with lower prices the discount won't be as low as 20%, but remain attractive compared to selling on spot. Of course the tiny percentage that hold 20-50% of the claims will no doubt have the opportunity to manipulate the market, but this has always been the case with whales who have considerable supply, so nothing new.

Either way thanks for sharing that report, it did help to shed some more light on the situation that I was previously unaware of, such as the selling that been taking place behind closed doors for over a year now.

[suzanne5223]

It is hard to tell if any of the Mt Gox creditors will hold all their Bitcoin but it is sure that some of the 22,560 creditors will send their BTC asap they receive and I think we should expect at least 60% of the creditors to sell their BTC.
Having said that, the bear market is not over and if 60% of the Mt Gox creditor sells it will open another opportunity in the market. In the meantime, let's just hope they didn't sell though.

[bitcampaign]

they already know the value of bitcoin continues to grow every year so they are not likely to throw it away at the current price either, I think they will hold on to it because they believe bitcoin will still hit another ATH in the near future, but back to their decision and I believe bitcoin won't hit the low price again

[DeathAngel]

I think some people will sell a % of what they get back but I doubt there will be many people selling all of the coins they get returned. These guys have watched bitcoin go from 3 figures to what it is now so I would imagine there will be a lot of smart people willing to HODL for a lot longer because they’ve seen the performance bitcoin has put in over all those years.

Whales could try & use the news to dump the price but I don’t think it’ll be as bad as some predict.

[abel1337]

I believe that there will be a big dump in the market, Those victims are waiting for years now to get their money back and I'm sure that they are itchy to cash it out because they too possibly expect a dump because of their fellow victims. I'm speculating that it would be a sharp drop after the release and would recover slowly again. I expect the price to reach not less than 10k, 10k would be the bottom bottom I guess.

[Hamphser]

I believe that there will be a big dump in the market, Those victims are waiting for years now to get their money back and I'm sure that they are itchy to cash it out because they too possibly expect a dump because of their fellow victims. I'm speculating that it would be a sharp drop after the release and would recover slowly again. I expect the price to reach not less than 10k, 10k would be the bottom bottom I guess.

Its really impossible for someone not to have these kind of anticipation yet even myself to be one of those creditors or users of Mt.gox back in the past and able to get a hold of my coins then i would definitely be

selling it out considering on the profit that you do make.You've been thinking that this is some sort of holding your coins for a very long time.Its expected that there would really be market decline or dump.

But as we do all know that if there's dump then there's always a recovery.It wont be permanent and im aint even seeing that the price would really be going below 10k or going back into that level
but we know that possibilities is always there because market is unpredictable as always.

[OgNasty]

I believe that there will be a big dump in the market, Those victims are waiting for years now to get their money back and I'm sure that they are itchy to cash it out because they too possibly expect a dump because of their fellow victims. I'm speculating that it would be a sharp drop after the release and would recover slowly again. I expect the price to reach not less than 10k, 10k would be the bottom bottom I guess.

If I hadn't been around for Tim Draper's auction back in the day, I would agree with you that is the only possible outcome.  However, given that Blackrock just gave Bitcoin the green light, it's quite possible that they might scoop up all of the BTC being dumped from the mtgox victims (is that what we are?) and more.  I wouldn't discount the possibility.  I think there's a lot of money on the sidelines waiting to get in at the bottom, and I think the bottom has already started moving up in anticipation.  This will be interesting to watch though and I'd want to own some Bitcoin once that is in the rear view.

[buwaytress]

I'm about up to nothing these days with Mt Gox news. It just seems to keep seeming it's around the corner, only to be delayed to some other date. If ever there were expected impact, it'd have to be priced in a long time ago, so nope, zero effect beyond the few minutes it tends to stir a couple of trader hornets. Don't hold your breath.

Don't expect this to be delayed forever. One day, people will gonna get their funds back and they gonna dump it through the market order.

Why not let it happen today and the fear of mt gox dump is over forever?

I'm all for it. But as I said, it's all priced in. It's been priced in for years. Just like those Bitcoin ETFs everyone was hyping up and waiting for, when they finally came, the intended effect was negligible.

When this one happens and even if it dumps, it'll be a whimper effect, really.

[PrimeNumber7]

I believe that there will be a big dump in the market, Those victims are waiting for years now to get their money back and I'm sure that they are itchy to cash it out because they too possibly expect a dump because of their fellow victims. I'm speculating that it would be a sharp drop after the release and would recover slowly again. I expect the price to reach not less than 10k, 10k would be the bottom bottom I guess.

If I hadn't been around for Tim Draper's auction back in the day, I would agree with you that is the only possible outcome.  However, given that Blackrock just gave Bitcoin the green light, it's quite possible that they might scoop up all of the BTC being dumped from the mtgox victims (is that what we are?) and more.  I wouldn't discount the possibility.  I think there's a lot of money on the sidelines waiting to get in at the bottom, and I think the bottom has already started moving up in anticipation.  This will be interesting to watch though and I'd want to own some Bitcoin once that is in the rear view.

I don't believe that the price that Draper paid in the Silk Road auctions was ever made public. Draper is also an individual investor (with a lot of money), while Blackrock is an investment firm. For Blackrock to buy any amount of coin, they would need to have some kind of hedge fund they are managing to be in need of said coin. I am not aware of this being the case. Further, I don't see any reason why Blackrock would wait until the Gox coins are released to former Gox customers. Institutional traders tend to buy/sell large positions over time, and the bitcoin market is fairly deep.

[DaveF]

I believe that there will be a big dump in the market, Those victims are waiting for years now to get their money back and I'm sure that they are itchy to cash it out because they too possibly expect a dump because of their fellow victims. I'm speculating that it would be a sharp drop after the release and would recover slowly again. I expect the price to reach not less than 10k, 10k would be the bottom bottom I guess.

If I hadn't been around for Tim Draper's auction back in the day, I would agree with you that is the only possible outcome.  However, given that Blackrock just gave Bitcoin the green light, it's quite possible that they might scoop up all of the BTC being dumped from the mtgox victims (is that what we are?) and more.  I wouldn't discount the possibility.  I think there's a lot of money on the sidelines waiting to get in at the bottom, and I think the bottom has already started moving up in anticipation.  This will be interesting to watch though and I'd want to own some Bitcoin once that is in the rear view.

I don't believe that the price that Draper paid in the Silk Road auctions was ever made public. Draper is also an individual investor (with a lot of money), while Blackrock is an investment firm. For Blackrock to buy any amount of coin, they would need to have some kind of hedge fund they are managing to be in need of said coin. I am not aware of this being the case. Further, I don't see any reason why Blackrock would wait until the Gox coins are released to former Gox customers. Institutional traders tend to buy/sell large positions over time, and the bitcoin market is fairly deep.

All government auctions will eventually be public. He paid about $19 million for 29,657 bitcoins.

Can't find the information on the 2nd auction, have to borrow someones PACER account to search a bit more. Either it's not been saved on RECAP or it's under a different case / docket number that I can't seem to dig up.

-Dave

[pooya87]

When speaking about effects of something like this on bitcoin price, some people focus on the details that are important but irrelevant to the trend. Details such as amount of coins, whether it is paid in bitcoin or in fiat, whether it is going to be paid at all! etc.

The only thing that matters is how much fake news is going to come out because of this news (whether positive or negative) and how the weak hands are going to react to it.
I'd say right now majority of weak hands are sitting on fiat because they've already sold and all the FUD telling them "a big dump is going down to $17k-$18k" has discouraged them from buying back in. Price also hasn't surpassed the resistance well enough for them to jump back in.
This means the chances of the FUD having a strong effect are very negligible.

[DaveF]

Side thought, if they were ALL dumped using some back of the napkin math it's still a bit less then what Tesla and Luna dumped over the last few months.
Although there were some people who did have a lot of BTC tin MtG and they need money NOW I think there are more who are still holding / using BTC and see this as a free investment so they are going to hold it. Also, keep in mind there are going to be tax implications if they sell larger amounts so they would trickle it out anyway.

So, no I'm sticking with that if they are all released and all sold it's not going to matter that much.

-Dave

[PrimeNumber7]

I believe that there will be a big dump in the market, Those victims are waiting for years now to get their money back and I'm sure that they are itchy to cash it out because they too possibly expect a dump because of their fellow victims. I'm speculating that it would be a sharp drop after the release and would recover slowly again. I expect the price to reach not less than 10k, 10k would be the bottom bottom I guess.

If I hadn't been around for Tim Draper's auction back in the day, I would agree with you that is the only possible outcome.  However, given that Blackrock just gave Bitcoin the green light, it's quite possible that they might scoop up all of the BTC being dumped from the mtgox victims (is that what we are?) and more.  I wouldn't discount the possibility.  I think there's a lot of money on the sidelines waiting to get in at the bottom, and I think the bottom has already started moving up in anticipation.  This will be interesting to watch though and I'd want to own some Bitcoin once that is in the rear view.

I don't believe that the price that Draper paid in the Silk Road auctions was ever made public. Draper is also an individual investor (with a lot of money), while Blackrock is an investment firm. For Blackrock to buy any amount of coin, they would need to have some kind of hedge fund they are managing to be in need of said coin. I am not aware of this being the case. Further, I don't see any reason why Blackrock would wait until the Gox coins are released to former Gox customers. Institutional traders tend to buy/sell large positions over time, and the bitcoin market is fairly deep.

All government auctions will eventually be public. He paid about $19 million for 29,657 bitcoins.

Can't find the information on the 2nd auction, have to borrow someones PACER account to search a bit more. Either it's not been saved on RECAP or it's under a different case / docket number that I can't seem to dig up.

-Dave

I found a few articles from years ago that suggest the ~$640/btc price he paid was about 2% above the then-current market price.

Side thought, if they were ALL dumped using some back of the napkin math it's still a bit less then what Tesla and Luna dumped over the last few months.
Although there were some people who did have a lot of BTC tin MtG and they need money NOW I think there are more who are still holding / using BTC and see this as a free investment so they are going to hold it. Also, keep in mind there are going to be tax implications if they sell larger amounts so they would trickle it out anyway.

So, no I'm sticking with that if they are all released and all sold it's not going to matter that much.

-Dave

It seems that the Luna Foundation sold about 80k bitcoin over a three-day period, worth approximately $2.4 billion, and the price declined roughly 20%.

It is unclear if the Luna Foundation or Tesla was able to shop around the coin they were wanting to sell to institutional investors to avoid having to sell it on the open market. It is probably more likely that Luna Foundation sold on the open market due to the more-urgent need for liquidity. A sale to an institutional investor is likely similar to having a sale spread out over a long period of time.

[pooya87]

about 80k bitcoin over a three-day period, worth approximately $2.4 billion, and the price declined roughly 20%.

More like 16% at most considering the highest price on May 8th was $35400 and the lowest price on May 10th was $29700. The dates are from the article and they claim the liquidation took place at that time. They also say it was between $31,000 and $35,000 which means the decline the sale caused was closer to 11%.

[savetheFORUM]

about 80k bitcoin over a three-day period, worth approximately $2.4 billion, and the price declined roughly 20%.

More like 16% at most considering the highest price on May 8th was $35400 and the lowest price on May 10th was $29700. The dates are from the article and they claim the liquidation took place at that time. They also say it was between $31,000 and $35,000 which means the decline the sale caused was closer to 11%.

I am not even entirely confident that the article got it perfectly right. Sure there must be some truth to it, but it doesn't sound like 2.4 billion dollars worth of bitcoin would drop it only 20%, or maybe that's just me, it feels like more would fall. In any case, it's done now and we are beyond it, let it be known that we took over 2 billion dollar hit (and also tesla sale which was over 1 bilion) in a bulk order and we still stood strong.

I know we may look low right now, but we recover, and even though we may go down and up anytime we want, mt gox deal can't hover over us forever which would be a great thing to do because it will mean that we will get rid of it.

[OgNasty]

Side thought, if they were ALL dumped using some back of the napkin math it's still a bit less then what Tesla and Luna dumped over the last few months.
Although there were some people who did have a lot of BTC tin MtG and they need money NOW I think there are more who are still holding / using BTC and see this as a free investment so they are going to hold it. Also, keep in mind there are going to be tax implications if they sell larger amounts so they would trickle it out anyway.

So, no I'm sticking with that if they are all released and all sold it's not going to matter that much.

-Dave

I hope you are right.  I think that much supply being dumped on the market has to effect something, but there appear to be Wall Steet firms lining up to soak up the excess coins. 

I also think most of the coins will be sold.  They should have a clear cost basis and that makes them perfect candidates for selling in order to have a nice clean paper trail for Uncle Sam.  I think that alone will be a temptation for many of the mtgox coin recipients.  I'm also not sure how taxes will be handled yet with these coins.  Are the recipients going to owe capital gains taxes or is that being stripped out prior to the distribution?  That could also have a big effect on so many coins...  I'm still waiting until I have coins in hand before I have the necessary talks with a lawyer, but I assume there will be forced selling.

[coolcoinz]

I feel like all this fear mongering in the bear market is a well planed tactic to scare people and make them dump into the hands of these big trust funds. Think about it for a second. You don't see a lot of these news in the bull market, but when the price falls by at least 50% from the top they come at you with full force. Gox coins were to be released since 2020. They were talking about it for 2 years and there was always some small hurdle and the release was delayed for a few months. Knowing it, people drove the price to almost $70k. Back then there was no fear of Gox, but now  suddenly there is?

You want to know why? They prey on your fear. You're stuck watching the charts and they keep telling you it's going to get worse to wear you down. All this is done right after the announcement that Blackrock is going to buy.

Gox is not going to dump anything because the restitution is going to take months. People are not going to dump anything because they see how high inflation is and how low BTC got. Even if Bitcoin loses 10% this year it's still going to perform better than most of the EU. Greece, Spain and Belgium are already over 10% and Ireland is gaining at 9.6%.

[SirLancelot]

These days news about Mt Gox releasing of funds to its creditors is spreading on Twitter and seems very alarming to the BTC price action in coming days, as BTC price has not yet gained any momentum towards 28k which most of the so-called technical analysts predicted. I think we are most likely to hit <15k BTC in the coming days due to the release of almost 140k BTC from Mt gox.

If you search for the #mtgox at Twitter you will see how tense is the situation: https://twitter.com/search?q=%23mtgox&src=typed_query

There is this report by BRL; https://twitter.com/lab_blockchain/status/1557330341139972104
There were 22,560 creditors share total claims of $17 billion with an average claim of ~39btc. Do you think they are going to hold it ?

I heard that some of them are already being paid in advance. That is made possible by the crypto exchange which name is ftx. So I think the impact is not going to be that huge because some already sold their coins or idk maybe some of them hodl it for the better since they see that btc price is still not great.

The unfortunate moment had happened long time ago so those people have probably moved on and already have a money on them so the btc that they will be getting won't be immediately needed. People shouldn't see this as a negative news but it's a kind of positive news actually because who would have thought that the coins are still going to be returned to their rightful owners?