Portuguese League - Liga Portugal 2022/23

[Slow death]

 

it's unbelievable how in portugal soccer is dominated by porto, last season when porto was at the top they didn't have to worry in the last league games, they became champions long before the games ended, this season benfica got an advantage very considerable in relation to Porto, but as expected, Benfica started to lose points, but the very scary part is that Porto, which was going through bad times, lost against weak opponents, started from nothing to win games, but the victories they weren't even convincing, there was always some controversy like a penalty in favor of porto or a red card to porto's opponent, and with that porto managed to stay very close to benfica, unbelievable

just to summarize a little the miracles of the porto:

porto 1 - 0 boavista

porto benefited from a penalty, so that the staging was good, boavista was reduced to 10 players but in the 66 minutes

Pacos ferreira 0 - 2 porto

paços ferreira player had a red card at 45 minutes, and guess what came next? yes, you guessed it, Porto benefited from a penalty in the 66th minute.

porto 2 - 1 santa clara

guess what? yes, Porto benefited from a penalty kick in the 34th minute

It is very strange that Porto games constantly benefit from a draw or a red card.

[joker_josue]

It is very strange that Porto games constantly benefit from a draw or a red card.

And the same thing happened in this week's game for the Portuguese Cup.
At 21 minutes, Famalicão scores and ties the tie.
At 27 minutes penalty for Porto - goal.
At 75 minutes, Famalicão scored again and tied the tie.
At 120+1 minutes (extra minutes in extra time???) Porto scores and goes to the front of the tie.




This weekend is the decisive game for Benfica. It will play against Braga, and if it loses points, the championship will be very difficult.

[rdluffy]

it's unbelievable how in portugal soccer is dominated by porto,

I didn't follow the Portuguese championship very much in the previous years, but because of the bets I started to take a better look at this championship and I was quite surprised too
But I'm not only talking about Porto, but the dominance of the quartet: Porto, Benfica, Sporting and Braga
For 6 seasons now the championship always ends with these 4 teams in the top 4
And in the last 8 seasons, only Vitória managed to finish 4th in 2016/2017.
For us bettors, it is easier to get the results right and that is why it attracted me a lot.

It is very strange that Porto games constantly benefit from a draw or a red card.

Let's see how this season ends. I doubt that Porto can be champion because Benfica only depends on itself to win. But some of Porto's results are really strange

This weekend is the decisive game for Benfica. It will play against Braga, and if it loses points, the championship will be very difficult.

I have already put a reminder not to miss this match, I am looking forward to watch, it has everything to be a tough and great match to watch because the importance for Benfica and also for Braga to continue in the fight for the Champions League classification

[LTU_btc]

I have already put a reminder not to miss this match, I am looking forward to watch, it has everything to be a tough and great match to watch because the importance for Benfica and also for Braga to continue in the fight for the Champions League classification

I'm also waiting for this game. If Braga somehow would manage to win, it would make remaining few rounds such interesting. Not only fight for the title but also it would increase chances for Braga to reach 2nd place. Lineups for the game already announced and it's good to see that both teams have almost optimal squads. I really want to see Braga win, but my brains says that Benfica will win. And I think that it makes sense to go with over 2.5 goals on this game.

[shogun47]

I have already put a reminder not to miss this match, I am looking forward to watch, it has everything to be a tough and great match to watch because the importance for Benfica and also for Braga to continue in the fight for the Champions League classification

I'm also waiting for this game. If Braga somehow would manage to win, it would make remaining few rounds such interesting. Not only fight for the title but also it would increase chances for Braga to reach 2nd place. Lineups for the game already announced and it's good to see that both teams have almost optimal squads. I really want to see Braga win, but my brains says that Benfica will win. And I think that it makes sense to go with over 2.5 goals on this game.

That's not going to happen and I am sure this relief for Benfica means such a huge relief to them. It could have become very close as you said, but Benfica deserved this one as they were the better team in many respects. But still mental pressure can force you into unnecessary mistakes any time and that would have been risky against Braga. Now Benfica really would have to screw it up to still give Porto a chance. They knew about the importance of this game and they did their job.

[LTU_btc]

That's not going to happen and I am sure this relief for Benfica means such a huge relief to them. It could have become very close as you said, but Benfica deserved this one as they were the better team in many respects. But still mental pressure can force you into unnecessary mistakes any time and that would have been risky against Braga. Now Benfica really would have to screw it up to still give Porto a chance. They knew about the importance of this game and they did their job.

It's very important win for Benfica, after game ended, it was visible how much it matters for Benfica players. In general, it was difficult game, but Benfica were better. Maybe these stats isn't key thing, but Benfica xG stats is impressive - 3.63, it says a lot about game.
Now I don't see scenario how Benfica can't win title this season.

[rdluffy]

It's very important win for Benfica, after game ended, it was visible how much it matters for Benfica players. In general, it was difficult game, but Benfica were better. Maybe these stats isn't key thing, but Benfica xG stats is impressive - 3.63, it says a lot about game.
Now I don't see scenario how Benfica can't win title this season.

I was able to watch the match, and as I imagined, it was a very tight and difficult match. Even though Benfica had more shots and more possession, it was a very difficult match, especially given what was at stake.
This match was one of those that are worth "more than 3 points" hehehe, I don't know if it's too early to say, but it was probably the most important match of this end of the championship for Benfica, and probably the one that will help them the most for the title.
I didn't place any bets on this match to thinking it too difficult to predict.

Now Benfica has 82.5% title chances while Porto has only 17.5%. Braga has no more mathematical chances.

[joker_josue]

~~

~~

Undoubtedly this was the most important game for Benfica to be more likely to win the championship.
This victory over Braga certainly gave the team more morale for the next games, and created more pressure for Porto.

It is enough for Benfica to win two more games in the championship and it is won. And there's still room to lose a game, since there's still the game against Sporting, which won't be easy.

[shogun47]

It's very important win for Benfica, after game ended, it was visible how much it matters for Benfica players. In general, it was difficult game, but Benfica were better. Maybe these stats isn't key thing, but Benfica xG stats is impressive - 3.63, it says a lot about game.
Now I don't see scenario how Benfica can't win title this season.

I was able to watch the match, and as I imagined, it was a very tight and difficult match. Even though Benfica had more shots and more possession, it was a very difficult match, especially given what was at stake.
This match was one of those that are worth "more than 3 points" hehehe, I don't know if it's too early to say, but it was probably the most important match of this end of the championship for Benfica, and probably the one that will help them the most for the title.
I didn't place any bets on this match to thinking it too difficult to predict.

Now Benfica has 82.5% title chances while Porto has only 17.5%. Braga has no more mathematical chances.

If you want to look at it from a purely mathematical point of view, the 82.5% might be correct, but I think that the chances are more going towards 90%. Benfica either has to win two out of three or win one and tie two out of three. But even that only applies whebn Porto wins all of their games. When you now also take into account that they have an over 90% rate of not losing, I believe that it would extremely rarely happen that Benfica would still give away the title in a situation like this. Your statistic leans more towards four out of five times, but I would rather stick with perhaps once in ten times.

[Sirait]

~~

~~

Undoubtedly this was the most important game for Benfica to be more likely to win the championship.
This victory over Braga certainly gave the team more morale for the next games, and created more pressure for Porto.

It is enough for Benfica to win two more games in the championship and it is won. And there's still room to lose a game, since there's still the game against Sporting, which won't be easy.

benfica's narrow 1-0 victory over braga, making them currently get 80 points while porto which is in position 2 managed to collect 73 points it seems that benfica is only a few percent away from becoming the Portuguese league champion. benfica's opponent on the next matchday is portimonense, it seems they are not a tough opponent for benfica. congrats to benfica, they are very tough and deserve to be champions.

[rdluffy]

Undoubtedly this was the most important game for Benfica to be more likely to win the championship.
This victory over Braga certainly gave the team more morale for the next games, and created more pressure for Porto.

It is enough for Benfica to win two more games in the championship and it is won. And there's still room to lose a game, since there's still the game against Sporting, which won't be easy.

Yes, there's 3 more matches to Benfica and 4 matches to Porto
Max points Porto can reach is 85, winning all 4 remaining matches, while Benfica has 3 matches and need to score 6 points to guarantee the title
Benfica will play against Portimonense, Sporting and Santa Clara, I think 2 wins and 1 draw is ok for Benfica
I also think Porto will get these 12 points and ends the championship in this way:

Benfica - 87 points
Porto - 85 points

If you want to look at it from a purely mathematical point of view, the 82.5% might be correct, but I think that the chances are more going towards 90%. Benfica either has to win two out of three or win one and tie two out of three. But even that only applies whebn Porto wins all of their games. When you now also take into account that they have an over 90% rate of not losing, I believe that it would extremely rarely happen that Benfica would still give away the title in a situation like this. Your statistic leans more towards four out of five times, but I would rather stick with perhaps once in ten times.

I only said about the mathematical chances, but I agree, of 3 opponents only 1 can win Benfica in my opinion, Sporting of course, and I think the championship is going to end like I wrote above.
You can bet on 4 wins of Porto, they need to guarantee the second place to Champions League next year

[Slow death]

Undoubtedly this was the most important game for Benfica to be more likely to win the championship.
This victory over Braga certainly gave the team more morale for the next games, and created more pressure for Porto.

It is enough for Benfica to win two more games in the championship and it is won. And there's still room to lose a game, since there's still the game against Sporting, which won't be easy.

Yes, there's 3 more matches to Benfica and 4 matches to Porto
Max points Porto can reach is 85, winning all 4 remaining matches, while Benfica has 3 matches and need to score 6 points to guarantee the title
Benfica will play against Portimonense, Sporting and Santa Clara, I think 2 wins and 1 draw is ok for Benfica
I also think Porto will get these 12 points and ends the championship in this way:

Benfica - 87 points
Porto - 85 points

If you want to look at it from a purely mathematical point of view, the 82.5% might be correct, but I think that the chances are more going towards 90%. Benfica either has to win two out of three or win one and tie two out of three. But even that only applies whebn Porto wins all of their games. When you now also take into account that they have an over 90% rate of not losing, I believe that it would extremely rarely happen that Benfica would still give away the title in a situation like this. Your statistic leans more towards four out of five times, but I would rather stick with perhaps once in ten times.

I only said about the mathematical chances, but I agree, of 3 opponents only 1 can win Benfica in my opinion, Sporting of course, and I think the championship is going to end like I wrote above.
You can bet on 4 wins of Porto, they need to guarantee the second place to Champions League next year

in the portuguese league anything can happen in favor of porto, this advantage of benfica is nothing in the portuguese league mainly when there are only 4 points of difference with porto, in the times that porto becomes champion, benfica for some time was in front but after losing against porto they started a sequence of defeats that allowed porto to have a big difference in points in relation to benfica and with that porto always has a high reputation, it happens that this season porto is very weak compared to last seasons and what makes me think that they are using dirty tricks is the fact that they have many penalties in many games, but that doesn't mean that porto always do that, last season they were clearly very strong

As in the Portuguese league, Porto has dominated lately and Benfica has a lot of profit from selling players, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Porto using schemes to win games this season, we'll see if Benfica really wins in the next game. and we will see if porto will lose any of the next games, it will be easy to check if there is any manipulation or not, all we need is to be watching the next remaining games, but I do not consider this number of more than 80% chance of benfica being champion as a real number in practice, for me porto has more chances of being champion than benfica

It is very strange that Porto games constantly benefit from a draw or a red card.

And the same thing happened in this week's game for the Portuguese Cup.
At 21 minutes, Famalicão scores and ties the tie.
At 27 minutes penalty for Porto - goal.
At 75 minutes, Famalicão scored again and tied the tie.
At 120+1 minutes (extra minutes in extra time???) Porto scores and goes to the front of the tie.




This weekend is the decisive game for Benfica. It will play against Braga, and if it loses points, the championship will be very difficult.

this season it is very strange all porto games, in this last porto game against arouca, it seemed that arouca had no interest in winning the game, it was a very strange game for me and as expected porto won

[Volgastallion]

Yes, Porto this season was really irregular and not only in results im talking about goal efficacy, i see a lot of games of them pushing a lot and not making goals.

Agaisnt Arouca you can check also that, only 1-0 against a poor team, and they were full dominant.

[joker_josue]

As in the Portuguese league, Porto has dominated lately and Benfica has a lot of profit from selling players, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Porto using schemes to win games this season, we'll see if Benfica really wins in the next game. and we will see if porto will lose any of the next games, it will be easy to check if there is any manipulation or not, all we need is to be watching the next remaining games, but I do not consider this number of more than 80% chance of benfica being champion as a real number in practice, for me porto has more chances of being champion than benfica

I also agree that Porto will win every game until the end of the season, either easily or with "some" help from penalties, Porto will win. Out of curiosity, a study concluded that Porto is the fourth team in world football that has had the most penalties since January 2020.

Benfica will have more difficulty, for several reasons, one of them being the fact that they still have to play against Sporting. But, Benfica's margin of error is very small, they cannot miss more than one game.

[joker_josue]

Only 3 games left for the end of the championship, and everything is still open.
The champion is yet to be decided. Places for European competitions are still open. And there may still be changes in devision descent places.

Here is the table, at the start of matchday 32:

Pos	Team	Played	Won	Draws	Lost	G.For	G.Against	G.Difference	Points
1	Benfica	31	26	2	3	72	17	55	80
2	Porto	31	24	4	3	64	19	45	76
3	Sporting Braga	31	23	2	6	66	26	40	71
4	Sporting CP	31	21	4	6	65	28	37	67
5	Arouca	31	13	9	9	33	35	-2	48
6	Vitória SC	31	14	5	12	32	36	-4	47
7	Chaves	31	11	10	10	32	35	-3	43
8	Famalicão	31	13	3	15	35	41	-6	42
9	Casa Pia	31	11	7	13	28	35	-7	40
10	Boavista	32	11	7	14	38	52	-14	40
11	Vizela	31	11	6	14	33	35	-2	39
12	Rio Ave	31	10	9	12	33	37	-4	39
13	Portimonense	31	10	4	17	24	40	-16	34
14	Gil Vicente	32	9	7	16	31	40	-9	34
15	Estoril	31	8	4	19	26	46	-20	28
16	Marítimo	31	6	5	20	29	58	-29	23
17	Paços de Ferreira	31	5	5	21	23	56	-33	20
18	Santa Clara	31	4	7	20	22	50	-28	19

[rdluffy]

For me this round is pretty easy to predict, with victory for all the top 4, Benfica, Porto, Braga and Sporting
The multiple bet on the 4 gives 2.05 odds, I find it difficult to give something wrong since all 4 teams need to win.
The only thing that can mess up a little is the nervousness of this final round, since a mistake can cost something valuable for any team
Special detail on the team of Braga that can not make another mistake and lose another game, otherwise it is at risk the 3rd place and the classification for the qualifying round of the Champions League

I still believe in Benfica's title while you are betting that Porto will win hahaha, I don't think Benfica will lose any remaining match.

[joker_josue]

I still believe in Benfica's title while you are betting that Porto will win hahaha, I don't think Benfica will lose any remaining match.

After the victory against Braga, I also have doubts that Benfica will lose the championship. They could even lose to Sporting, which I doubt, they stayed ahead and will certainly win the other two games they have to play.

[LTU_btc]

I haven't seen worse work of referee than in Sporting - Maritimo game. Additional time, Sporting leads 1:2, Maritimo attack. Referee assistant raises flag because foul, but main referee don't react, Sporting players basically stop to defend and Maritimo scores a goal. Then referee shows red card to Adan and goes to watch VAR. And then he cancel goal after review. Ridiculous, but actually referee lost control of game long time ago. Something what we discussed many times about level of referee in Portugal.
After this win Sporting still have chances to reach Braga on 3rd place. Meanwhile Benfica had easy game against Portimonense and won 5:1. Next week they're going to face Sporting, but it's almost impossible for them to lose title.
Braga - Santa Clara and Porto - Casa Pia on Sunday.

[shogun47]

I still believe in Benfica's title while you are betting that Porto will win hahaha, I don't think Benfica will lose any remaining match.

After the victory against Braga, I also have doubts that Benfica will lose the championship. They could even lose to Sporting, which I doubt, they stayed ahead and will certainly win the other two games they have to play.

I think so too. There is one moment of tension now that will be in the next game when Benfica plays against Sporting in an away game, but only if Porto wins both games and Benfica loses against Sporting. Could it happen? Yes, but even if it happens, the last game Benfica plays against Santa Clara at home. That is where I think the chance that Benfica drops points when they have to win in front of their crowd is not existent. That would probably be the most dramatic ending the Primeira Liga has ever seen if the leading team in the table loses against the last in the table on the last game day and then loses the championship.

[joker_josue]

At half-time, Porto lost at home to Casa Pia by one goal.
Will Benfica still be crowned champion today?

Of course it will be difficult, Porto will give everything in the second half, so everything is very excited.