MY DAILY BITCOIN SPECULATIONS AND VIEWS

[EarnOnVictor]

Bitcoin refused to sell yesterday but rose after some initial selling efforts to confirm its continued sideways movements which are not in the interest of both the buyers and sellers. It topped and bottomed at 19956.49 and 19583.00 respectively. This is a tight difference, I hope a tangible breakout from its long-lasting sideways levels will happen soon for the market to have a definite direction.

However, I am still bearish today judging by the guide of the 4H chart wherein the market is negative with the MACD and Stochastic oscillator. The price action is also bearish as the market holds below the trendline resistance at 19900.67. Staying below the level will continue to put pressure on Bitcoin today.

But a break above it might cause a bullish spike that might reach 21825.97.

[1715362287]

1715362287

[dragonvslinux]

I've been keeping a close eye on your thread after the failed break-out from trend-line resistance. Personally I wasn't very convinced by it as someone who prefers trend-lines to be connected by candle closes as opposed to candle wicks, or at least as many touches as possible without breaking candle bodies. In that respect, I saw this failed break-out as opposed to what you were referencing, for what that's worth.

Anyway, I think we are both on the same page for how the current resistance trend-line looks:

[EarnOnVictor]

Extreme caution is advised in trading Bitcoin as it repeated its indecisive movement yesterday, it bought and sold many times. This is misleading, and it might continue with these sideways and ranging movements until strong activities that could be caused by news or liquidity happens. Until then, I am neutral on the market, the daily chart explains how indecisive the market is. I will wait for further guidance today before calling for a direction tomorrow.

[EarnOnVictor]

I was right to be careful yesterday, Bitcoin initially rose but topped at 20179.52 before diving down to break away from its sideways lower levels and bottoming at 18637.51 for the day. This is a bearish trend confirmed by principles, and it shows that the market might not have bottomed yet for the year as it has renewed the hope of journeying down to the low of June at 17625.00

The price action is negative on the daily chart, and so is the MACD indicator. The stochastic oscillator is also pointing lower in readiness for more bearish movements today.

However, careful dealing is advised as well in case the market wants to observe a minor retracement before proceeding with the selling.

[EarnOnVictor]

I've been keeping a close eye on your thread after the failed break-out from trend-line resistance. Personally I wasn't very convinced by it as someone who prefers trend-lines to be connected by candle closes as opposed to candle wicks, or at least as many touches as possible without breaking candle bodies. In that respect, I saw this failed break-out as opposed to what you were referencing, for what that's worth.

Anyway, I think we are both on the same page for how the current resistance trend-line looks:

Sorry, I just saw your post today. One thing you should know is that the market is at times unpredictable and highly indecisive in movements, especially in the short-term outlook. All trading strategies have their fair share of that indecision too as they react to bad market conditions. That was what happened, breakout strategy could have false-breakout as many times as possible if the market is indecisive

The reason for the last is the directionless movements seen in the past 9 days before yesterday caused by the sideways movements of the market. You can see I switched to the daily chart even before reading your post to see the broader outlook and to avoid being caught in the web of markets' indecisiveness.

[samcrypto]

I was right to be careful yesterday, Bitcoin initially rose but topped at 20179.52 before diving down to break away from its sideways lower levels and bottoming at 18637.51 for the day. This is a bearish trend confirmed by principles, and it shows that the market might not have bottomed yet for the year as it has renewed the hope of journeying down to the low of June at 17625.00

Technically, we didn't leave the bear trend even at the price of $20k, now the price confirms it and it's good to wait for a little more dump because it's more possible now to happen. $16k might be the real bottom as expected by many, or the price can still go down depends on the trend of Bitcoin. Just continue to monitor the market, playing short right now might be a good strategy but of course you still need to set up your position to avoid any liquidation. TAYOR!

[EarnOnVictor]

I was right to have suspected a retracement yesterday, but the retracement has slipped into what looks like a reversal now. This calls for a strict watch of the market today before taking a position. Bitcoin might want to start a ranging pattern, time will tell as the guidance of the 4H and daily chart are crucial at this time.

On the 4H chart, the MACD is negative and the stochastic oscillator has reached the overbought regions. These might limit the power of the buyers today and send the market back to a lower price for a retest of the weekly low of 18510.77. While a further break of it will target 17625.00 (low of June). However, in case the Bulls gains more power and were able to launch a successful attack on the trendline resistance at 19772.77, then a higher level of 21825.97 would be unveiled.



Also, the daily chart has some interesting outlooks that traders should be careful with. The stochastic oscillator has had a bullish cross, this is a warning to potential sellers. And note that this would be aggravated if today's candlestick is positive.

My verdict: The market might slip into a ranging pattern this week. This means that it might only have limited bullish power today before selling. But if it breaches above 19772.77, it has confirmed a buy signal.

[dragonvslinux]

Just like the MACD by the looks of it, don't be caught out by the bullish divergence on the 4hr chart. If it continues to play out, it'll provide a relief rally at minimum to re-test resistance levels, if it can clear 60.

When everyone is bearish, and all time-frames look bearish, sometimes these divergence signals are the only warning signs provided that in fact the bear trend remains fragile. Just my two satoshis right now....

[EarnOnVictor]

Just like the MACD by the looks of it, don't be caught out by the bullish divergence on the 4hr chart. If it continues to play out, it'll provide a relief rally at minimum to re-test resistance levels, if it can clear 60.

When everyone is bearish, and all time-frames look bearish, sometimes these divergence signals are the only warning signs provided that in fact the bear trend remains fragile. Just my two satoshis right now....

Noted and thanks for the observation! I carefully watch the market with many timeframes developments even if I don't show them in my daily speculations here. Aside from that, there are other additional working strategies that guide me against any adverse developments in the market. And the market hardly fails me when all my strategies align with the same decisions, they aren't at the moment. For now, patience is needed as sluggish/indecisive movements might cause bad decisions if care is not taken.

[EarnOnVictor]

I carefully followed the behaviour of the market yesterday, Bitcoin was hesitant to take a side throughout the day but has had a successful bullish breakout above the 4H trendline today. The breakout has confirmed a bullish trend for it as I indicated yesterday.

My bias today is bullish as long as the market remains above the recent trendline level at 19661.76. The interpretation of the MACD status is neutral but its powerful histogram has had a bullish confirmation. This buttress my point of a bullish day and the buyers might be in control until a target of 21925.97 is reached as I also indicated yesterday.

[goaldigger]

I carefully followed the behaviour of the market yesterday, Bitcoin was hesitant to take a side throughout the day but has had a successful bullish breakout above the 4H trendline today. The breakout has confirmed a bullish trend for it as I indicated yesterday.

My bias today is bullish as long as the market remains above the recent trendline level at 19661.76. The interpretation of the MACD status is neutral but its powerful histogram has had a bullish confirmation. This buttress my point of a bullish day and the buyers might be in control until a target of 21925.97 is reached as I also indicated yesterday.

Btc did a great trend again today, it was able to hit the price of $21k again after the sudden dump and I think this is another bullish trend that will retest the resistance level again and once successful, we might see the real bull trend now. Indicators are also telling the same thing, it's good that we are able to break another resistance, now we are just waiting for another confirmation. BTC is doing great, along with the other good coins with their good updates, let's see if that can affect Bitcoin and if that trend will continue until the end of the month.

[EarnOnVictor]

The buyers took control of the market as expected yesterday and Bitcoin hit the peak of 21589.33 so far. The level is just a few points away from the expected target of 21825.97 which might still be hit after some corrections.

On the 4H chart, good development with MACD has occurred as the indicator is now completely bullish. But the price action is still negative and the stochastic oscillator is already overbought. These suggest some degree of correction today, but it should be limited above the current trendline support at 19483.87. I remain bullish above the level until further notice.

[EarnOnVictor]

Bitcoin overcame the adverse price action on the 4H chart shown yesterday after observing a slight correction to the low of 21111.13. It has progressed on the bullish path and remains above its current trendline support at 19867.11. I am bullish above that level today, the market almost hit my target at 21825.97 as it peaked at 21804.30 and has the tendency to rise further.

It has however formed a positive price action on the chart, which will help in buying further as the stochastic oscillator points higher in readiness for more buying and the MACD is positive.

[EarnOnVictor]

I continue to favour the bullish trend of Bitcoin, the market eventually hit my target at 21825.97 today and has peaked at 22362.58 so far. More bullish impacts are to be felt today and this week as more buyers are being attracted to the market. I will ever favour this bullish trend provided it holds above the current trendline support at 20289.87 and the MACD is positive on the 4H chart.

The next target is at 24440.42. This level is not yet visible on the 4H chart but it is there and I mentioned it some time ago. It might be revealed today if more bullish impacts are witnessed.

[EarnOnVictor]

Bitcoin bought as expected yesterday, the bullish steam is slowing down gradually as the last five candlesticks on the 4H chart are indecisive. This calls for more observations on what the market might do today before taking decisions. Nonetheless, the last candlestick ended in a bullish pin bar, which is a sign of the bullish continuation towards might the expected target of 24440.42. And the trendline still favours a bullish trend above 20624.87, just as the MACD indicator remains positive.

But if the pin bar could not help the market to launch higher than 22469.23, then the sellers might be gaining control bit by bit. While a break of the low of today at 22054.50 will slip the market to a minor bearish trend, which I will only treat as a mere correction of the recent bullish movements.

[Piesel]

22k BTC price is a great relief to speculators and investors at this moment where Bitcoin has noised dive below 20k for several weeks so arriving at a 22k+ price is something to emphasize before taking any decision and I believe what op has said that this recent Bitcoin chart movement should be properly analyzed before any decision is taken and for traders I advice opening more buying positions for Bitcoin and holding stablecoins.

The market conditions right now require close observation!

[dragonvslinux]

Personally I think the local volume point of control where the 200 MA is priced on the 4hr at $21.5K is likely to act as support level, as there is a nice confluence of support here with long-term moving average and volume.

This is where price was initially rejected from as it acted as resistance, so therefore is now likely to further confirm it as support. I otherwise wouldn't put too much faith in an upwards sloping trend-line that only has two touch-points, as these are nothing more than a coincidence without three touch-points (a confirmed pattern). This would be the same trap as before with the resistance trend-line that was repeatedly broken without price moving to the upside. The fact that after the third time it broke through this trend-line that was repeatedly shifting appears to be more coincidence than cause and effect.

It will be interesting to see if price can hold the 50 Day MA at $22K as well as bullish territory on the RSI, as the latter hasn't been achieved since March, so could easily send price up another 8% to $24K resistance trend-line and distribution level in order to reach overbought territory. Given it's been 6 months since Bitcoin has been overbought on the Daily time-frame, many of us have forgotten that this is possible, even within bear markets. The end of the week will otherwise mark 3 months since the $17.5K low which will further given me February 2019 vibes of being in the second part of confirming and forming a macro low.

[EarnOnVictor]

Bitcoin could not proceed higher yesterday after peaking at 22791.00, it then plummeted lower to break the support level mentioned yesterday at 22054.50. It dived afterwards and has had a bearish view ever since having broken another trendline support at 20666. Yesterday's inflation news in the US caused the fall, and I alerted my fellow BTT member before the news on a thread that could be found here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5413398.0

On the 4H chart, the market is a little bit messy, it is bearish, but the MACD is now neutral and the stochastic oscillator is oversold. These might cause conflicts of interest today, which makes me suggest a bullish correction before the market continues selling. Though the correction might/mightn't happen since yesterday's news might have a long-term impact on Bitcoin.



However, the daily chart is clearer about what happened. The trendline on the chart proved to be strong and rejected the price of the market lower from 22606.98 as it closed below the level. Therefore, my bias has shifted to bearish trend on Bitcoin today and till further notice. The market will move lower to retest the low of August at 18510.77, while a break of it will make the market proceed lower towards the low of June at 17625.00.

22k BTC price is a great relief to speculators and investors at this moment where Bitcoin has noised dive below 20k for several weeks so arriving at a 22k+ price is something to emphasize before taking any decision and I believe what op has said that this recent Bitcoin chart movement should be properly analyzed before any decision is taken and for traders I advice opening more buying positions for Bitcoin and holding stablecoins.

The market conditions right now require close observation!

Well said my friend, I do my best to analyze the market, give possible conditions and still watch out for any adverse development afterwards. That is why you might see me favouring a bullish trend today but a bearish trend tomorrow. Traders should be dynamic.

Personally I think the local volume point of control where the 200 MA is priced on the 4hr at $21.5K is likely to act as support level, as there is a nice confluence of support here with long-term moving average and volume.

This is where price was initially rejected from as it acted as resistance, so therefore is now likely to further confirm it as support. I otherwise wouldn't put too much faith in an upwards sloping trend-line that only has two touch-points, as these are nothing more than a coincidence without three touch-points (a confirmed pattern). This would be the same trap as before with the resistance trend-line that was repeatedly broken without price moving to the upside. The fact that after the third time it broke through this trend-line that was repeatedly shifting appears to be more coincidence than cause and effect.

It will be interesting to see if price can hold the 50 Day MA at $22K as well as bullish territory on the RSI, as the latter hasn't been achieved since March, so could easily send price up another 8% to $24K resistance trend-line and distribution level in order to reach overbought territory. Given it's been 6 months since Bitcoin has been overbought on the Daily time-frame, many of us have forgotten that this is possible, even within bear markets. The end of the week will otherwise mark 3 months since the $17.5K low which will further given me February 2019 vibes of being in the second part of confirming and forming a macro low.

What I can say is that there are a lot of trading strategies, and we are free to use anyone that works for us. I'm only keeping my analysis here simple to avoid complications. I still do some internal diggings that I don't show here, but my final resolves are what my daily speculations posted portray.

I know many trading strategies, but imagine seeing trendline, MA (50, 100 & 200), Fibonacci tools, wave theory and many more on the same chart, won't they cause much conflict of interest? This makes me come to the conclusion of the best support and resistance levels for my readers so that they will not make mistakes because of me.

Taking yesterday as a case study, the determining level was 22054.50, holding above it was a go for buyers, but going below it was a go for the sellers. My trading conditions were clear enough and worked perfectly if one follows them accurately.

Also, traders tend to make mistakes if they believe that only certain principles apply to trading, many principles do apply, only that some traders might be blind to them. As a matter of fact, many approaches must be viewed critically before going for the one that is best, which is what I am doing here. In other words, I always do some internal filtering that might not be obvious to many.

[EarnOnVictor]

Bitcoin performed as expected yesterday, its bullish correction was limited and it maintained the bearish trend that has made it hit the day's bottom of 19617.62. The market is making attempt to move higher, which is normal for it to take a slight breath before continuing the bearish trend. This might end when the stochastic oscillator on the 4H chart reaches a reasonable level for the market to be better eased before resuming the selling.

I prefer not to call a direction today because of the many obstacles to overcome by the market. Although the trend is still bearish, there might be some indecisive movements today. The important trendline levels to watch are at 20951.67, 20141.62 and 20658.65, which is close to the low of yesterday.

The buyers would gain a slight control above 20141.62, yet I expect the market to be limited below 20951.67 throughout today. Below 20141.62 will give the sellers control but needs breakout below 20658.65 and 19617.62 to resume the selling. The MACD remains negative in favour of the sellers.





 

[EarnOnVictor]

Yesterday's market movement indicates that Bitcoin is still under pressure and this might tarry till next week. The MACD is negative as the market tries to find its path today, and will likely continue to fall regardless of the bullish threat of the day.

In summary, the three important trendline levels of yesterday are still valid, but at different prices now. The levels to watch have shifted to 21306.65, 20311.67 and 19856.76. Holding below 21306.65 will preserve the overall bearish outlook of the market today, though I can't rule out the breach above 19856.76.

Still, I expect the market to hold below 20311.67 throughout today. Nonetheless, holding below 19856.76 is a strong assurance of a bearish trend continuation.