LBRY Token (LBC) Real world valuation???

[cassieheart]

What's the general consensus on LBRY TOKEN (LBC) is it a good buy atm? It's very hard to push through all the fud on Twitter and social media because it's paired with the same crowd that follows XRP and those people usually attach an insane price prediction like $50 - $200 a token. I know it's attached to some awesome projects like Odysee and LBRY, is the sky the limit here or are these people out of their minds, I'd like to hear your guy's opinions.

[theskillzdatklls]

Biased point of view here but... yes. MintDice wrote two extensive blog articles about the immense underlying value of $LBC at the bottom which made no real world sense relative to it's user base. It was trading then around a $5-10m market cap with over 50m unique monthly users. Since then it has gained 2-2.5x vs Bitcoin.

The major question is the SEC case which I think brings asymmetric returns. If either party loses, they will appeal. But if LBRY loses-loses, their token price may drop by some amount. But if they win-win, they will likely get listed on a lot of exchanges and the price could go absolutely insane. And the risk/reward calculus here isn't very close to me personally if you have some money to make an appropriate gamble on.


Fixing Social Media Centralization with LBRY (Long / Opinion)

The Failure of Monetizing Social Media Blockchains


I'd suggest you read either/both if you are interested in LBC and let me know what you think.

But cliff notes are that we're in a situation where Big Tech has a monopoly and they are abusing their power with censorship and preferential treatment to cable TV that no one wants to see. Every single month that goes by they are driving traffic away from their legacy dinosaur platforms onto newer, hardened platforms.

Rumble is a huge failure in my opinion despite their larger user base, for now. It's just a re-skinned YouTube prone to the same centralized vulnerabilities. LBRY & Odysee fix this. They are the only solution out there in the world and they are crushing it with their UI/UX, their userbase, their growth, etc.

They've only continued to grow as well, as expected, since the publication of those articles. I can post more third-party charts signifying that underlying data if that would interest you.

[theskillzdatklls]

Oh, sorry for the double post, but just saw and re-remembered the title. Real world valuation. That's where things get highly speculative. Theoretically, $LBC already has the (superior) infrastructure to compete with both YouTube and Medium/Substack. And since it's just an uncensorable base protocol that can be built upon by front-end developers, it's possibilities could only increase from here. For example, there's no reason an uncensorable Instagram clone, TikTok clone or others couldn't come online in the future.

So there is it's present real world valuation, which you'd have to base off it's present users and present software development. And there's a theoretical real world valuation, if it were to become a market leader. In the unlikely event that all the stars align, there's real pathways for $LBC to hit market caps above $100b (we'd also presume under this case that $BTC and $ETH are doing better than they are doing as well by this point as well).

But the multiplier potential here is extremely large under the ridiculous case scenarios which would be many years off where Odysee/LBRY become a household name.

[libert19]

Know this project since 2017, I like to think it's out of fuel. Their Twitter is filled with politics more than project updates.

[theskillzdatklls]

Know this project since 2017, I like to think it's out of fuel. Their Twitter is filled with politics more than project updates.

I think you are out of date and/or didn't read what I posted about. When they started, they had like 10 users, a terrible app and no web interface. Then they built up their product. Then in 2020 they launched lbry.tv, soon to be Odysee, and it had well under 1M users/mo. Now they have over 50M users/mo and are growing fast. I'd be shocked if they weren't over 100M users/mo in 2023 and growing.

It's quite the opposite of out of fuel. They had too much fuel in the beginning with an overhyped product with no user base. Now it's an underhyped product with a huge user base.

As far as politics, that's the crux of give or take the entire success and legacy of LBRY. They need to win their court case against the SEC. When that case ends, LBRY wins and the politics end.

[cassieheart]

I went all in sold off everything except my XRP, I think the potential here for 1000x price increase is real.
I missed pretty much every train since the beginning im not going to lose out on this one.

[libert19]

Know this project since 2017, I like to think it's out of fuel. Their Twitter is filled with politics more than project updates.

...When they started, they had like 10 users, a terrible app and no web interface. Then they built up their product. Then in 2020 they launched lbry.tv, soon to be Odysee, and it had well under 1M users/mo. Now they have over 50M users/mo and are growing fast. I'd be shocked if they weren't over 100M users/mo in 2023 and growing...

From where did you get active userbase numbers? Looking at view counts, it doesn't look 50M imho.

[FinneysTrueVision]

There is great value in having decentralized social media and content creation platforms where you aren't being arbitrarily censored for having an opinion that doesn't align with certain mainstream narratives. Having a great platform and growing user base is nice but it is not a guarantee that you will have a succesful token with significant value.

[theskillzdatklls]

I went all in sold off everything except my XRP, I think the potential here for 1000x price increase is real.
I missed pretty much every train since the beginning im not going to lose out on this one.

I think the potential is real as well. 1000x is definitely on the table but it is far, far from certain. It's current at around a 15M market cap last I checked, a 1000x would take it to 15b market cap. Certainly possible if all things start to go correctly for it.

But I would be careful, even as an optimist. Always make sure to use responsible amounts of money and I'd also encourage you to hedge if things go up or down.

The token has immense utility too. So make sure to use what you have to support the network. That's a lot of what gives the token it's value in the first place. Create an account on Odysee and boost channels, boost yourself, or anything else practical.

Know this project since 2017, I like to think it's out of fuel. Their Twitter is filled with politics more than project updates.

...When they started, they had like 10 users, a terrible app and no web interface. Then they built up their product. Then in 2020 they launched lbry.tv, soon to be Odysee, and it had well under 1M users/mo. Now they have over 50M users/mo and are growing fast. I'd be shocked if they weren't over 100M users/mo in 2023 and growing...

From where did you get active userbase numbers? Looking at view counts, it doesn't look 50M imho.

These statistics numbers are direct quotes from the Odysee CEO and LBRY CEO. If you look for recent podcasts with either, they will say this. I also recently answered this question on the Odysee/LBRY thread:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5116826.msg60855349#msg60855349

They are accurate. It's 50M unique users per month. Not every day.

There is great value in having decentralized social media and content creation platforms where you aren't being arbitrarily censored for having an opinion that doesn't align with certain mainstream narratives. Having a great platform and growing user base is nice but it is not a guarantee that you will have a succesful token with significant value.

Yeah, there's a ton of risk associated with LBRY succeeding as a project. So many examples including what you said. The biggest attack vector that I see is Big Tech / governments shadowbanning LBRY. If they forcibly delist this project off of app stores and downrank it on search results, that would put a lot of harm on the project at nearly no cost to those elite powers.

[theskillzdatklls]

Here are the latest SEO metrics for Odysee for those curious. Pretty important to understand the present valuation of the situation regarding LBRY. It just hit another all time high (it does this pretty much every single day). It's currently ranked as the #9,182 most powerful SEO website on the web. It's all but guaranteed to be in the top 9000 going into 2023. Probably top 7-8k by 2024.

[vv181]

Here are the latest SEO metrics for Odysee for those curious. Pretty important to understand the present valuation of the situation regarding LBRY. It just hit another all time high (it does this pretty much every single day). It's currently ranked as the #9,182 most powerful SEO website on the web. It's all but guaranteed to be in the top 9000 going into 2023. Probably top 7-8k by 2024.

For what's it worth, there is also a Librarian[1] platform. The number may be insignificant, but I know some do access LBRY/Odysee over that front end since Odysee is pretty much filled with invasive analytics code or trackers, so some communities made a privacy-preserved platform that many people able to host it on their own. It could indicate that the community cares a lot to give ease of access to many people to access Odysee contents.


[1] https://codeberg.org/librarian/librarian

[theskillzdatklls]

Here are the latest SEO metrics for Odysee for those curious. Pretty important to understand the present valuation of the situation regarding LBRY. It just hit another all time high (it does this pretty much every single day). It's currently ranked as the #9,182 most powerful SEO website on the web. It's all but guaranteed to be in the top 9000 going into 2023. Probably top 7-8k by 2024.

For what's it worth, there is also a Librarian[1] platform. The number may be insignificant, but I know some do access LBRY/Odysee over that front end since Odysee is pretty much filled with invasive analytics code or trackers, so some communities made a privacy-preserved platform that many people able to host it on their own. It could indicate that the community cares a lot to give ease of access to many people to access Odysee contents.


[1] https://codeberg.org/librarian/librarian

This is a very good point for a few reasons. Odysee is just one single data point, albeit, a major one. Users on LBRY or in your case Librarian aren't even measured. They are bonuses.

Further to your point, this is why the LBRY network is so incredibly powerful. Not only is it extremely good and big/growing right now, people can develop whatever they want off of it. You can't just open source an Instagram platform off of their network at full capacity. But you can open source anything for anything off of the LBRY network and instantly have access to a huge array of content and users and a powerful network.

There's also a multitude of directions one can take. The broader market will value convenience and performance above all else, making Odysee or any future Odysee-like competitors (since anyone can enter into the space, it's not monopolized) critical to it's success. But you can also scale things in the direction of privacy/security for users who care, the base example being LBRY. But you can also scale things in the direction of other apps or designs. And this is actively being done, for example, a 3D printer design app for LBRY is coming soon.