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Author Topic: Bitcoin *is* a store of value! Satoshi implied so.  (Read 330 times)
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NotATether (OP)
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September 07, 2022, 03:51:54 AM
 #21

Anyway...

scenario A Eth PoW using efficient asic:
Eth PoW hashrate ~850,000Ghash
eth asic of 2.4ghash  at 1.92kwh per asic
=354167 asics = 680000kwh = $27,200/hour
there are ~260 coins made an hour = $104.62 electric cost per coin

scenario B Eth PoS solo stake:
Eth PoS solo validator ~420,000
Pc solo validators of 100w per pc
= 42,000kwh = $1680/hour
there are ~260 coins made an hour = $6.46 electric cost per coin

scenario C Eth PoS custodial stake:
Eth PoS solo validator ~30 custodians

= 3kwh = $0.12/hour
there are ~260 coins made an hour = $0.0046 electric cost per coin

thus, the underlying cost of security/creating a coin drops with PoS and drops further the more popular a PoS becomes. (both cost and security)
where by the difference between the underlying value. vs the market price is made up of pure speculation of human choice. rather than an underlying cost

I wonder if ETH will still retain its store-of-value properties after the POS upgrade, in the long term - as in several years or decades from now once governments become smart and realize that they can just issue a warrant to POS miners they don't like and seize their equipments in typical raids.

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franky1
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September 08, 2022, 12:27:03 AM
 #22

Anyway...

scenario A Eth PoW using efficient asic:
Eth PoW hashrate ~850,000Ghash
eth asic of 2.4ghash  at 1.92kwh per asic
=354167 asics = 680000kwh = $27,200/hour
there are ~260 coins made an hour = $104.62 electric cost per coin

scenario B Eth PoS solo stake:
Eth PoS solo validator ~420,000
Pc solo validators of 100w per pc
= 42,000kwh = $1680/hour
there are ~260 coins made an hour = $6.46 electric cost per coin

scenario C Eth PoS custodial stake:
Eth PoS solo validator ~30 custodians

= 3kwh = $0.12/hour
there are ~260 coins made an hour = $0.0046 electric cost per coin

thus, the underlying cost of security/creating a coin drops with PoS and drops further the more popular a PoS becomes. (both cost and security)
where by the difference between the underlying value. vs the market price is made up of pure speculation of human choice. rather than an underlying cost

I wonder if ETH will still retain its store-of-value properties after the POS upgrade, in the long term - as in several years or decades from now once governments become smart and realize that they can just issue a warrant to POS miners they don't like and seize their equipments in typical raids.

store of value "properties"?

store of value is just that. a store of value
value(economic number) is the bottomline number where the most cheapest most efficient most lowest cost of getting coin that no one else on the planet can go below

anything can develop a store of value. even if that store of value is just a X cents.
the issue is... if the PRICE remains close to that SoV to protect majority of someones wealth from loss when they buy. or if its bubble inflated/premium far far above SoV line
(its why most PoS coins are not $1k+ and those that are. thats just unprotected pure speculation over hyped/pumped prices that are not sustainable)

EG
right now people buying bitcoin at this quarters rates have a wealth security of 75% SoV, IF!! they bought at $20k(Sov ~$15k)

where as if they bought at $60k their wealth has only a 25% SoV security

bitcoin is a good store of value because its deflationary nature means at the next market cycle that pishes up SoV and thus the price speculation window above it. that wealth stores last/this year gets more protected later..
unlike inflationary fiat where the longer you hoard fiat the less value is protected and you lose value

..
separate scenario
those buying eth at $1.5k might have a 66% Sov now(~$1k inc hardware pow). but will soon be more like 0.05% after PoS
so expect a massive price correction when fully PoS and a value protection loss of like 99.95%

as for your other comment about government..
PoS doesnt use special equipment
what you might be more concerned with if you like PoS and are gov worried is...
..is not equipment. but [inserting slight gov conspiracy theory for you] if the custodial pools (EG coinbase which is regulated and licenced) got told to seize all the staked value by regulators(hand custodial keys to regulators) or if coinbase got told by regulators to perform some task using its staking opportunities(and other regulated services told the same).
- but thats entering into the extreme realms of the line between possibility and conspiracy


a more rational concern of gov intervention is..
..is even when regulators are saying that for instance liquid, LN and monero are bad currencies which exchanges should not custodianise or offer services for.
reality is those regulators are not begging to seize all monero/ln/liquid funds. they are just saying to regulated exchanges, to just dont offer services to those currencies in the first place. thus most govs wont seize equipment/coins for the sake of it. but instead you will just see less custodians(legit businesses running pools) and businesses (merchants) accepting those PoS coins should governments take a bad eye to a PoS.
but that same rationale can happen with any 'proof-of..'  coin

but to the point of store of value
bitcoins SoV grew from about $0.04 early 2010. to ~$15k 2022
eth grew to about $1k in 2022 but is about to drop to a couple dollars or even a few cents SoV after PoS
(expect a massive price correction)

as for the market prices of those coins. well thats the speculation and whimsy stuff above SoV of the times.. which is more wiggling and volatile above SoV
so just be sure to buy the LOW not the HIGH if you want to protect more of your wealth when you buy.

..
bitcoin is a great SoV because even if you buy a high. deflation means if you leave it long enough more of your wealth becomes protected as the SoV increases over time
(unless bitcoin foolishly does a PoS or algo reset or something massive to change the dynamics of economic policy)

I DO NOT TRADE OR ACT AS ESCROW ON THIS FORUM EVER.
Please do your own research & respect what is written here as both opinion & information gleaned from experience. many people replying with insults but no on-topic content substance, automatically are 'facepalmed' and yawned at
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September 08, 2022, 01:12:02 PM
 #23

To begin with, "winter" doesn't happen in the entire world at the same time. Sure the opposite pole is summer, but there are still the whole tropics. Not the entire planet is having power scarcity, in fact, some places have excess of it. Take for example the natural gas from oil extraction, its normally just vented or burned, but there are mining operations running generators from that gas on site instead, those are not connected to the grid and are immune to the problems in California, Texas etc.

Bitcoin can work with lots or little hashrate, and it can have hashrate come and go as well. The market self regulates itself according to hashprice, and this in turn is what also keeps in check those thinking of "attacks". So if it went low enough to make an attack feasible, more miners would come to profit lifting the difficulty again and keeping the incentive away in perpetuity (its more expensive to perform the attack than the possible benefit).

Those that don't understand, or even fear Bitcoin, have not read the Austrian school of economy, they think deflation is the end of the world, it isn't. Unlike what the current trend says, you don't have to get in debt to invest, without garbage money you can simply save to invest. Its slower, but steady than the roller coaster of credit expansion, bubbles and crashes.

And the price of things is subjective, period. Its valuable to people because they feel like it. Those who don't think so sell. And that's the correlation you get in the market. This value is changing according to time and location as well as the feelings of every individual person. Things don't have "intrinsic" or "extrinsic" value, it is subjective, and its not fixed in time and space. Again, Austrian school of economy...

Once you understand it, you know the place of Bitcoin in the world, and how is pushing it to a different era. Altcoins made by people who don't understand and just reproduce the vice of fiat in digital form, are destined to fail. Infinite emission, voluntary "burning", reverting transactions on a whim by a select few, that's the kind of trash the State has always done. None of that exists in Bitcoin.

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