'We don’t have enough' lithium globally to meet EV targets, mining CEO says

[Hydrogen]

Climate provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act put the U.S. back on track toward significant emissions reductions, potentially reducing greenhouse gas output by 40% of 2005 levels.

But one miner warned that when it comes to the transportation sector, domestic resources for lithium, the most critical mineral used for electric vehicle production, may not be sufficient enough to meet some of the most ambitious targets. The Biden administration, for instance, aims to slash the sale of gas-powered vehicles to 50% of all new purchases by 2030.

“Yes, we’ll [eventually] have enough, but not by that time,” Keith Phillips, CEO of Piedmont Lithium (PLL), said in an interview with Yahoo Finance Live (video above). “There’s going to be a real crunch to get the material. We don’t have enough in the world to turn that much [lithium] production in the world by 2035."

With the average electric car battery requiring roughly 8-10kg of the metal, lithium remains a crucial material in the transition to emission-free vehicles. Growing demand has caused the price of lithium carbonate to nearly double this year alone, and the IEA projects demand to grow by 40 times in the next two decades, with a majority of that supply coming from outside of the U.S.

That has complicated climate targets set by the Biden administration. The president has called for half of all new vehicles sold by 2030 to be electric, setting aside billions of dollars in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to incentivize drivers to make the shift.

But those same tax credits come with requirements calling for parts and components to be largely sourced in North America, leading some EV makers to push back against the goals on the grounds that they are not realistic.

Piedmont Lithium is looking to cash in on the demand, as one of only a handful of U.S.-based lithium miners. On Thursday, the mining company announced plans to open a lithium processing operation in Tennessee, with construction set to begin in 2023.

Once fully operational, the plant will process 30,000 metric tons of lithium per year. The company is also planning another plant in North Carolina, which will allow the firm to supply lithium for 1 million electric vehicles per year.

“The world has changed,” Phillips said. “We're now in an era where everyone's going to want an electric car. The car companies can't make them fast enough, and people are now looking for the lithium they need for the batteries to go in those electric cars.”

While carmakers like General Motors (GM) have rushed to secure partnerships with domestic mining operations in anticipation of the demand, the Albemarle (ALB) Silver Peak mine in Nevada remains the only operational lithium mine with meaningful output.

Phillips said a slow permitting process has stalled approvals for new production sites. Meanwhile, China has continued to dominate the industry, refining more than half of all lithium supply while Australia and Chile remain the largest producers in the world.

“Projects get permitted [in Australia] in under a year,” Phillips explained. “Here, it's two, four, six, seven, eight years, which is a problem, especially in a business that's booming so fast.”

The White House has moved to accelerate the process by invoking the Defense Production Act to bolster the production of minerals critical to EV manufacturing, including lithium and cobalt. The IRA also established the Advanced Production Investment Tax Credit for domestic production.

But with the demand for EVs far outpacing supply and new mining operations working within a five- to 10-year timeline before coming online, Phillips said that, as it stands, the U.S. cannot meet its clean energy targets with the domestic sourcing priority.

“Energy security is a national issue,” Phillips said. “I think you'll see companies that are thinking about battery plants in different parts of the world or lithium conversion plants coming to America because this investment tax credit will be very valuable…The market opportunity is huge.”


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lithium-supply-ev-targets-miner-181513161.html

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Many years ago back in 2014, it was announced that afghanistan might hold more than $1 trillion dollars worth of rare earth minerals as well as large lithium deposits.

Rare Earth: Afghanistan Sits on $1 Trillion in Minerals

The aerial surveys determined that Afghanistan may hold 60 million tons of copper, 2.2 billion tons of iron ore, 1.4 million tons of rare earth elements such as lanthanum, cerium and neodymium, and lodes of aluminum, gold, silver, zinc, mercury and lithium. For instance, the Khanneshin carbonatite deposit in Afghanistan's Helmand province is valued at $89 billion, full as it is with rare earth elements.

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/rare-earth-afghanistan-sits-1-trillion-minerals-n196861

I'm not certain how many survey sites they include in their estimates.

But if demand trends high enough. I would guess a way could be found to untap reserves there. If only due to the surging demand and opportunities it would create on a global scale.

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[The Sceptical Chymist]

But if demand trends high enough. I would guess a way could be found to untap reserves there.

Are you saying what I think you're saying?  And by that I mean are you suggesting that the US might find a reason to invade Afghanistan again in order to pillage their lithium?  Either way, that was the first thing I thought when I read the blurb about them having so much of it.  You know the good 'ol U-S-of-A wouldn't think twice about lying to its citizens about sending troops to a country to fight; it's been done before, and I'm sure it'll be done again.

On a less dark note, maybe lithium will become the next precious metal (or at least its price will make it appear as such, sort of like nickel).  But I'll tell you, if you have bipolar disorder and lithium is the only drug that works for you, you better watch out.  The drug companies that sell lithium carbonate and other salts of Li are probably going to start running low on the key ingredient.  There could be an outbreak of some really off-the-wall people coming soon if electric cars do suddenly become all the rage.

[Hydrogen]

are you suggesting that the US might find a reason to invade Afghanistan again in order to pillage their lithium?  

Other countries in the region, like china. Have a friendly relationship with afghanistan which could allow them to tap rare earth minerals present.

China controls a high percentage of rare earth minerals globally. Which also makes them well suited to the task.

Estimates and projections however might not factor those elements in.

[bittraffic]

are you suggesting that the US might find a reason to invade Afghanistan again in order to pillage their lithium?  

Other countries in the region, like china. Have a friendly relationship with afghanistan which could allow them to tap rare earth minerals present.

China controls a high percentage of rare earth minerals globally. Which also makes them well suited to the task.

Estimates and projections however might not factor those elements in.

How friendly China and Afghanistan by the way? Because if they are close like with Putin then China will have it all if invading Taiwan will be uncontested. But it's just wrong to push EVs to everyone now the fact that it's expensive while you have a limited place to go.

I don't really see why they chose to develop EVs when they could make hydro-powered cars and US will not have to go to Afghanistan again. The downside, however, is that South America which has unlimited water thru the Amazon river will be more developed same as the countries along Congo river. They'd be the front of the new world order.

And check this news https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/01/us/california-heat-wave-flex-alert-ac-ev-charging.html

[NeuroticFish]

Many years ago back in 2014, it was announced that afghanistan might hold more than $1 trillion dollars worth of rare earth minerals as well as large lithium deposits.

This only means that maybe in 10 years Afghanistan may become the new UAE, with the glamor and riches. How fast, it depends on how fast the rulers there figure this out.

But imho this "news" may be more an attempt of PLL to create some panic and rise the prices, than anything else.
Imho the main problem of EVs is not the lithium now, it's the fact the current type of batteries is not suitable for such use (they don't last long enough and charging is also not fast enough). And when the new generation of batteries will emerge, those may or may not use Lithium.
So, again, I think it's more that PLL is trying to protect their business than anything else in that article.

[Majestic-milf]

But if demand trends high enough. I would guess a way could be found to untap reserves there.

Are you saying what I think you're saying?  And by that I mean are you suggesting that the US might find a reason to invade Afghanistan again in order to pillage their lithium?  Either way, that was the first thing I thought when I read the blurb about them having so much of it.  You know the good 'ol U-S-of-A wouldn't think twice about lying to its citizens about sending troops to a country to fight; it's been done before, and I'm sure it'll be done again.

On a less dark note, maybe lithium will become the next precious metal (or at least its price will make it appear as such, sort of like nickel).  But I'll tell you, if you have bipolar disorder and lithium is the only drug that works for you, you better watch out.  The drug companies that sell lithium carbonate and other salts of Li are probably going to start running low on the key ingredient.  There could be an outbreak of some really off-the-wall people coming soon if electric cars do suddenly become all the rage.

You honestly have a point there. There has never been a time America has 'helped' without an incentive and with Biden looking to scrap 50% of gas powered vehicles by 2030, he has barely 8 years to achieve such a plan and since they just have 6.8million tonnes, which is barely enough to make these EVs he definitely would look to Afghanistan.

[so98nn]

I believe if we really reach point where lithium is no longer available then we humans will start designing and achieving whole new realm of technology where it’s not required. History is proof for such advances. We moved from steam engines to petrol, diesel, now electricity and even hydrogen fuel is the next change. You never know what’s coming up as part of development.

By the way if they still want to have lithium, then they can have diplomatic relations with Afghanistan and which seems very profitable to that country considering their current conditions.

[Lucius]

This only means that maybe in 10 years Afghanistan may become the new UAE, with the glamor and riches. How fast, it depends on how fast the rulers there figure this out.

If the Taliban are still in power in that country (and I don't see who would replace them), I don't believe that we will see glamor and wealth there, regardless of what is under their feet. Maybe some individuals will get rich, but ordinary people are far from basic human freedoms in that country and that will not change with the Taliban's crazy laws.

Imho the main problem of EVs is not the lithium now, it's the fact the current type of batteries is not suitable for such use (they don't last long enough and charging is also not fast enough).

It seems that these problems will also become a part of the past, at least if the news that appeared these days is to be believed.

China's leading automotive lithium-ion battery maker, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd (CATL), revealed a new battery that provides electric vehicles with a driving range of over 1,000 km on a single charge.
With the third generation of cell-to-pack (CTP) technology, the battery named Qilin, or CTP 3.0 battery, has a volume utilisation efficiency of 72 percent and an energy density of up to 255 Wh/kg for ternary battery systems, giving it the highest integration level in the world, according to CATL. Meanwhile, charging takes just 10 minutes in fast mode.

[NeuroticFish]

If the Taliban are still in power in that country (and I don't see who would replace them), I don't believe that we will see glamor and wealth there, regardless of what is under their feet. Maybe some individuals will get rich, but ordinary people are far from basic human freedoms in that country and that will not change with the Taliban's crazy laws.

That's like that pretty much everywhere, although indeed in some oil-rich countries newborn children already get some nice funds, in a way or another and this probably won't happen in Afghanistan.
But I've read about human rights ignored even at construction sites in UAE / Dubai, so... I clearly don't expect more in Afghanistan. Still, usually after a certain amount of wealth this is hidden under the carpet.

It seems that these problems will also become a part of the past, at least if the news that appeared these days is to be believed.

This is interesting news, thank you for that.
I will remain somewhat skeptical since they may tell only the good news and some things are hidden, plus the reliability issues many Chinese products have, you know.. so we can have a better image after this gets into heavy commercial use. Still, it's a good step in the good direction.
And this also gives an interesting info: they will probably keep using Lithium...

[Lucius]

But I've read about human rights ignored even at construction sites in UAE / Dubai, so...

These nations have a completely different concept of what we in the West call "safety at work", which became more than evident when the data on the number of people killed in Qatar during the construction of infrastructure for the upcoming World Cup in football became public. A few days ago, I read that the current figure is around 15 000 people, but no one wants to stress that problem too much, because the locals have obviously bought FIFA, UEFA and anyone who had the intention of criticizing them because of their slave-owning attitude towards foreign workers.

This is interesting news, thank you for that.
I will remain somewhat skeptical since they may tell only the good news and some things are hidden, plus the reliability issues many Chinese products have, you know.. so we can have a better image after this gets into heavy commercial use. Still, it's a good step in the good direction.
And this also gives an interesting info: they will probably keep using Lithium...

That is why I expressed my reservation regarding this news, because I am not an expert to say whether it is possible to charge the battery in 10 minutes and then drive 1000 km. Maybe it works in theory, but I assume that possible problems will be revealed only with the intensive use of such batteries. If you search for problems with electric car batteries, then you can see that in reality very little works as intended.

Tesla has switched their cars to a new 12V Li-Ion battery, hoping to resolve a long-standing issue of the traditional lead acid batteries dying much faster than they typically do in internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
It appears as though the problem hasn’t been completely resolved as numerous owners in Europe are reporting the new battery can also fail very quickly under certain conditions.
The problem only impacts newly delivered vehicles with a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery, where the 12V Li-Ion battery can die within 20 minutes of the vehicle’s main battery reaching a state of charge (SOC) less than 10%.

[lumbanrang]

If only manufacturers could recycle the waste generated by Lithium this would allow future electric vehicles to be more "environmentally friendly", but what is happening now is that most manufacturers only focus on developing batteries and fast charging, without thinking about recycling waste from use of lithium batteries. Hopefully in the future manufacturers will be more concerned about this.

[Gyfts]

And ironically enough, most of the charging from electric vehicles come from fossil fuel based energy sources anyways. It would make more sense to cut out the middle man and stop relying on electric vehicles to solve the manufactured issue of climate change. Most electrical grids couldn't even support mass charging if every car on the road switched to electric.

[stompix]

Are you saying what I think you're saying?  And by that I mean are you suggesting that the US might find a reason to invade Afghanistan again in order to pillage their lithium?  Either way, that was the first thing I thought when I read the blurb about them having so much of it. 

If any of those fairytale resources would be indeed there, not like the 1 quadrillion tons of gold discovered in Ghana there would have been at least attempts at mining them in 20 years, right?
If the USA would be that keen on exploiting resources in invaded countries we would have seen them mining them, and they wouldn't have retreated, right? You would have had only US companies exploring oil in Irak and nor the major oil fields run by China and Russia.

It's the same story, if a country gets into conflict with the US suddenly there are quadrillions of trillions of resources that the Americans want, when they retreat from there suddenly it's a different story, they went there ...for popcorn.

You honestly have a point there. There has never been a time America has 'helped' without an incentive

Weird how countries that have been helped by the US and have not sunk bank to being religious zealots are doing quite fine, let's look at South Korea and Japan, countries that have been "helped" by Russia and China on the other hand....

[2stout]

This already sounds like a signal to artificially limit the amount of Li on the market to drive up demand, hence price.  Also, this comes from a mining CEO and this would be an optimal situation for his industry.

[davis196]

Batteries won't be created by using Lithium in the not-so-distant future.
There will be Natrium-Sulfur, Graphene or Liquid metal batteries that will replace the Li-Ion batteries.
The new kinds of batteries will be cheaper, easier to produce and recycle and their capacity to store electricity will be greater than the Li-Ion batteries. Unfortunately we will have to wait a few decades, before the mass adoption of such modern batteries.
Yes, Afghanistan has lots of natural resources. Good luck trying to mine them.
There are no infrastructure, logistics and qualified work force. Importing capitals, equipment and qualified workers is close to impossible.
USA had troops and administration in Afghanistan for 20 years and their success in modernizing the country was little to none. I don't think that any other country would succeed in building a mining industry in Afghanistan.

[hugeblack]

The transition to renewable energies will be messy if current technologies are not developed, so it is better to invest in research rather than trying to force the industry in a direction for which it is not quite ready.

Also, you cannot forget that the current energy crises are a double-edged sword. Unless there is a unified global commitment to the climate, each country separately applies any laws that will not save the earth.


As for lithium

According to this data --> With 8 million tons, Chile has the world’s largest known lithium reserves. This puts the South American country ahead of Australia (2.7 million tons), Argentina (2 million tons) and China (1 million tons). ---> Source --> https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/stories/2020/03/lithium-mining-what-you-should-know-about-the-contentious-issue.html

[DrBeer]

From the point of view of lithium reserves - yes, the problem has appeared, it is foolish to deny. But there is a nuance. This will be a real problem if you continue to use this rather "ancient" technology. But the world does not stand still, and in recent years, a sufficient number of new elements have been discovered to build energy storages (batteries).
For example:
- Batteries based on silicon and sulfide can store much more energy than lithium-ion counterparts with graphite electrodes.
- MIT has developed batteries from aluminum, sulfur and salt. They charge quickly, do not ignite and are not afraid of overheating.
... and other developments that are easy to google. Yes, I understand that it will be in the form of industrial production in 2023, but in a couple of years, it should enter the market.
Resource horror stories are just propaganda of suppliers or beneficiaries of the old technology. Remember how the world switched to diesel engines on ships - how many tantrums, loud statements and sabotage against diesel, in an attempt to save the need for coal. It will also be with lithium, gas, oil and other "irreplaceable resources"

[Lucius]

According to this data --> With 8 million tons, Chile has the world’s largest known lithium reserves.

8 million tons is very little if you believe that in just one country there are as many as 200 million tons - and it is not China or Australia, but Serbia. This is one of the reasons why the EU wants that country to join the EU as soon as possible, but also the reason why the US in every possible way wants to have as much influence as possible in that country, which stands out especially through military cooperation (arms donations).

Unfortunately for the local dictator and general ruler, things did not develop in the desired direction, because the people who live there do not want lithium mines in their backyard.

It is estimated that there are 200 million tons of lithium borate ore in the valley, which would make it one of the world’s largest lithium deposits, supplying 10 per cent of global demand.

[el kaka22]

I didn't know that Afghanistan is rich with that much mineral. Usually when USA goes to invade a place, they come back with those minerals as a result, to keep them there and not get them back does sound a bit like a problem. In the end, they didn't win that war to begin with, they left and left the nation to the worst kind of people, which means that we are going to end up seeing a lot of people who will question the motives.

If there is a chance that those minerals could be digging out then we are going to do it one way or another when the time comes. I am not saying that it will happen right away, but it doesn't look like it is going to be a possibility to leave them there forever neither if we need them to continue.