The economic effect of people flying from RF mandatory conscription

[Lucius]

The border with Kazahstan is twice as long as the one between USA and Mexico, not to mention the one in Mongolia which is roughly the same, a few hundred dollars and every border patrol will let you off with cheers!
People have managed to fled the USSR, this will be a piece of cake.

You are right, no one can fully control such long borders, and bribery and corruption are at a really high level in that country. However, if Russia closed its borders, there would not be such mass departures in columns that sometimes stretch for tens of kilometers, so I am sure that much fewer people would decide to leave the country illegally. Some speculations say that the borders could be closed by the end of the month, supposedly they are just waiting for the annexation of the occupied territories to be announced.

One Russian general said something like this: "If the sons and relatives of all deputies and other leaders are sent to the front lines, then the war will end quickly"
In the meantime, many people from poor families are taken to the war, it will continue.

This is not only specific to Russia, in all wars the poor are always sent to the front lines because they are expendable - while the children of the rich and politicians are declared unfit for warfare. The current prime minister of my country and the president were both incapable of defending their country when it was needed, and today they have a status greater than any warrior from that era.

[el kaka22]

That is an expected thing, I mean why would they want to stay and go fight, when they could just leave to a cheaper nation and stay there until the war is over? It would not make sense to compare these two together.

I understand that there are some nationalistic people who see it holy to go to war and die, some even say it guarantees you to go to heaven if you die in a war for your nation, but you need to realize this is a war for Putin, he is the only one that wants it and no religion on God's green earth would guarantee heaven just because you died while trying to kill innocent other people in the name of your president, that's just not possible.

[Gyfts]

The highly valued citizens, ie doctors, engineers, IT/Computer science related specialties, will not face conscription. Their skills are more valued in the home country rather than being shipped off to war. Conscription's usually been relegated for the people that bring man power, not technical knowledge. To the extent of the war, your core competency is that you be able to hold a gun and follow orders. There's plenty of Russians to choose from.

It shouldn't affect the economy anymore than a costly war and sanctions are already affecting the economy.

[stompix]

However, if Russia closed its borders, there would not be such mass departures in columns that sometimes stretch for tens of kilometers, so I am sure that much fewer people would decide to leave the country illegally. Some speculations say that the borders could be closed by the end of the month, supposedly they are just waiting for the annexation of the occupied territories to be announced.

Of course, they won't allow this mass transit but I think it again caught them by surprise, they expected some to flee but note that many, and they can't really close the border with tanks cause that would send the wrong message, so they will try to pose as a free country while letting maybe a million slips and then when enough is enough strat with check-ups far before the border so they will stop them outside the camera range.

There won't be 100k fleeing a day, but no way they can prevent everyone.
If some are starting to shoot their commanders in recruitment centers or burn them down, no 1m fence guarded by a wild yak in the middle of nowhere will stop them from fleeing.

The highly valued citizens, ie doctors, engineers, IT/Computer science related specialties, will not face conscription. Their skills are more valued in the home country rather than being shipped off to war.

The highly value citizens were the first to flee, first because skilled ones have the brain to understand what's happening in the economy second because they are far harder to being brainwashed, and they know they can have a better life outside. Also they understand that once the 'less skilled" is killed on the front those gaps have to be plugged with something, and sooner or later it's full volkssturm mode where everything with two legs walking on the street minding his business will get trashed in a van and sent to the frontlines with a piece of paper telling him that once Igor Dummkopf is dead to take his rifle and charge at the enemy.

Reddit is full of images of prisoners with their papers, people that have been captured only 5-10 days after being drafted, someone has to fill the place, and at this rate, they are going to run out of unproductive soviet komrades.

[yhiaali3]

In such unjust cases, yes, I escape from conscription. I will not fight to fulfill the illusions of grandeur of some stupid politicians, nor will I fight to protect those rich people who are overweight from stealing the people’s money. In any case, this reserve conscription needs additional resources and this will cost additional money to the tired state treasury. Basically, the flight of the educated elite of scientists, engineers, doctors and skilled workers will also have a very negative impact on the crumbling Russian economy.

[Ozero]

Russia is now rapidly falling apart as a single state. For a long time such unity was based on fear, coercion and violence. Now the fear among indigenous peoples is gradually disappearing as the central government weakens, which is caused by significant military defeats of the Russians on the fronts of Ukraine. And since Ukraine continues to quite successfully carry out offensive operations and inflict heavy military losses in manpower and equipment on the Russians, the weakening of the central government will only intensify and, at the same time, the desire of the outskirts of Russia for independence will grow. What Russia has always used in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine with the newly formed "republics" should soon begin in Russia itself. Putin in all such cases stated that he respects the right of nations and nationalities to self-determination and independence. Only the Chechen wars have shown that such a right to self-determination does not extend to the territory of Russia. But now the situation is changing. The Russian cadre army is practically destroyed in Ukraine, and the central government no longer has the strength to drown national movements in blood.
On the other hand, the sanctions are slowly but surely doing their job. Therefore, the outflow of brains and capital will only intensify. Russia faces a bleak future for many generations.

[kryptqnick]

Op says we should take 300,000 with a pinch of salt, but I'd actually say we should take the conscription very seriously and assume that the data suggested by some that the goal is to mobilize around a million people might be very real. Many Russians are fleeing the country to avoid conscription, and some will avoid it by other means like not having an official job and living not at an official place of residence, bribes etc. But the majority will calmly agree to get mobilized, so whatever the goal is in terms of the number of people to throw into the war, it's likely to be reached.
There are also barely any protests (excluding Dagestan, which shouldn't be equated to Russia because it's a separate nation which basically lost a war and was forced to be a part of Russia), considering the population of the country.
Russian economy, unfortunately, is stronger than many assumed. Partly it's thanks to good management (surprisingly, but true, given how they stabilized ruble despite the odds), partly thanks to "neutral" China and India, as well as some European countries paying still tons of money (billions monthly) for Russian energy sources. So, while many people will be hit, businesses will struggle and things will get worse, I don't think Russia is on a verge of economic collapse, and the exodus of males won't crumble it.
I do believe that long-term the issues can become very serious for Russia. But not in the upcoming months, not economically. Also, the world would truly have to commit to stop giving Russia billions of dollars for meaningful change to happen.

[zasad@]

Op says we should take 300,000 with a pinch of salt, but I'd actually say we should take the conscription very seriously and assume that the data suggested by some that the goal is to mobilize around a million people might be very real. Many Russians are fleeing the country to avoid conscription, and some will avoid it by other means like not having an official job and living not at an official place of residence, bribes etc. But the majority will calmly agree to get mobilized, so whatever the goal is in terms of the number of people to throw into the war, it's likely to be reached.
There are also barely any protests (excluding Dagestan, which shouldn't be equated to Russia because it's a separate nation which basically lost a war and was forced to be a part of Russia), considering the population of the country.
Russian economy, unfortunately, is stronger than many assumed. Partly it's thanks to good management (surprisingly, but true, given how they stabilized ruble despite the odds), partly thanks to "neutral" China and India, as well as some European countries paying still tons of money (billions monthly) for Russian energy sources. So, while many people will be hit, businesses will struggle and things will get worse, I don't think Russia is on a verge of economic collapse, and the exodus of males won't crumble it.
I do believe that long-term the issues can become very serious for Russia. But not in the upcoming months, not economically. Also, the world would truly have to commit to stop giving Russia billions of dollars for meaningful change to happen.

No one argues that there will be big problems in the economy in Russia, because a lot of specialists are leaving. But there will be even more problems in Europe, because Europeans do not want to live like in Russia, and access to cheap resources is closed.
I am sure that this military conflict will not end quickly, so it will be bad both in Russia and in Europe. But in the USA everything will be fine.

[Silberman]

The Russian Federation is conscripting around 300.000 troops (take with a pinch of salt). This comes, in theory from reservists and, as usual, most recruits will come from the politically irrelevant regions in the East and South. Many people in the RF know that there are good chances of getting killed in Ukraine and the RF is not being attacked (rather the opposite). In a regime that is quite harsh with protesters and opposition, it is remarkable how many are publicly protesting across the country.

By contrast, other have decided to simply leave. When the war begun, many flew and now even more. The people who can afford to do so and live away for a long time are precisely the professional elite and the most capable individuals (doctors, engineers, IT people, expert economists and similar). I think that this is going to have a deep effect in the economy of the RF.

Would you run away to avoid conscription? What will be the effect on RF economy?

Of course I will do everything that is within my power to flee from a country in which a government is trying to make me fight in a war, and just as you mention at Russia the people that are against the war do not have a lot of options to show their discontent with the government, so the best way to do this is by showing that you are not willing to go to war and be killed, and the only realistic way to do this is by fleeing from Russia, obviously this is not an easy decision to take because those which were born there will have to leave their loved ones behind, but when your life is at risk you do not really have too much of a choice.

[zasad@]

The Russian Federation is conscripting around 300.000 troops (take with a pinch of salt). This comes, in theory from reservists and, as usual, most recruits will come from the politically irrelevant regions in the East and South. Many people in the RF know that there are good chances of getting killed in Ukraine and the RF is not being attacked (rather the opposite). In a regime that is quite harsh with protesters and opposition, it is remarkable how many are publicly protesting across the country.

By contrast, other have decided to simply leave. When the war begun, many flew and now even more. The people who can afford to do so and live away for a long time are precisely the professional elite and the most capable individuals (doctors, engineers, IT people, expert economists and similar). I think that this is going to have a deep effect in the economy of the RF.

Would you run away to avoid conscription? What will be the effect on RF economy?

Of course I will do everything that is within my power to flee from a country in which a government is trying to make me fight in a war, and just as you mention at Russia the people that are against the war do not have a lot of options to show their discontent with the government, so the best way to do this is by showing that you are not willing to go to war and be killed, and the only realistic way to do this is by fleeing from Russia, obviously this is not an easy decision to take because those which were born there will have to leave their loved ones behind, but when your life is at risk you do not really have too much of a choice.

I don't understand why kill in other countries where you will be a disenfranchised person. Already in Kazakhstan, apartment rent has increased several times, which is much higher than wages. In Turkey, Georgia, Uzbekistan, the same thing, the prices for renting real estate are growing. In Russia, it is enough not to live at the official place of registration or to buy a destroyed house in the village and register there, but to live elsewhere.

[be.open]

I don't understand why kill in other countries where you will be a disenfranchised person. Already in Kazakhstan, apartment rent has increased several times, which is much higher than wages. In Turkey, Georgia, Uzbekistan, the same thing, the prices for renting real estate are growing. In Russia, it is enough not to live at the official place of registration or to buy a destroyed house in the village and register there, but to live elsewhere.

In theory, you are right, subpoenas from the military registration and enlistment office can only be served at the place of registration of citizens. In practice, summons for mobilization are usually handed over to the personnel department of the enterprise at the place of work of the person liable for military service in the reserve.

[zasad@]

I don't understand why kill in other countries where you will be a disenfranchised person. Already in Kazakhstan, apartment rent has increased several times, which is much higher than wages. In Turkey, Georgia, Uzbekistan, the same thing, the prices for renting real estate are growing. In Russia, it is enough not to live at the official place of registration or to buy a destroyed house in the village and register there, but to live elsewhere.

In theory, you are right, subpoenas from the military registration and enlistment office can only be served at the place of registration of citizens. In practice, summons for mobilization are usually handed over to the personnel department of the enterprise at the place of work of the person liable for military service in the reserve.

If you are an employee, then this is a problem. If you have your own business, then you can re-register for a loved one, for example, mom or dad.
A lot of people are leaving for other countries, but they do not take into account your moment about what the situation will be in these countries in the next 2 years. Americans know how to make orange revolutions, and life in any small country can get even worse, and there will be nowhere to run, because the money will run out.

[DrBeer]

The Russian Federation is conscripting around 300.000 troops (take with a pinch of salt). This comes, in theory from reservists and, as usual, most recruits will come from the politically irrelevant regions in the East and South. Many people in the RF know that there are good chances of getting killed in Ukraine and the RF is not being attacked (rather the opposite). In a regime that is quite harsh with protesters and opposition, it is remarkable how many are publicly protesting across the country.

By contrast, other have decided to simply leave. When the war begun, many flew and now even more. The people who can afford to do so and live away for a long time are precisely the professional elite and the most capable individuals (doctors, engineers, IT people, expert economists and similar). I think that this is going to have a deep effect in the economy of the RF.

Would you run away to avoid conscription? What will be the effect on RF economy?

Of course I will do everything that is within my power to flee from a country in which a government is trying to make me fight in a war, and just as you mention at Russia the people that are against the war do not have a lot of options to show their discontent with the government, so the best way to do this is by showing that you are not willing to go to war and be killed, and the only realistic way to do this is by fleeing from Russia, obviously this is not an easy decision to take because those which were born there will have to leave their loved ones behind, but when your life is at risk you do not really have too much of a choice.

I don't understand why kill in other countries where you will be a disenfranchised person. Already in Kazakhstan, apartment rent has increased several times, which is much higher than wages. In Turkey, Georgia, Uzbekistan, the same thing, the prices for renting real estate are growing. In Russia, it is enough not to live at the official place of registration or to buy a destroyed house in the village and register there, but to live elsewhere.

Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Georgia and other countries that have allowed migrant workers from Russia to visit them can turn this to their advantage and correct the current situation!
The most intelligent and hardworking Russian guest workers (this is of course a small percentage, but there are some) - can do the rough work, janitors, loaders, taxi drivers, etc. low-paid but necessary vacancies will be closed.
And the rest - they can be sold back to Russia for example for 100-200 dollars! More than a million escaped "heroes of Russia" will bring to your economy many millions of stable currency, help solve the problem in the rental market, and other problems that guest workers from Russia brought to your countries!

[Argoo]

Of course I will do everything that is within my power to flee from a country in which a government is trying to make me fight in a war, and just as you mention at Russia the people that are against the war do not have a lot of options to show their discontent with the government, so the best way to do this is by showing that you are not willing to go to war and be killed, and the only realistic way to do this is by fleeing from Russia, obviously this is not an easy decision to take because those which were born there will have to leave their loved ones behind, but when your life is at risk you do not really have too much of a choice.

The problem for Russian citizens is that Putin's crime family has been ruling there for decades and the Russians are incapable of overthrowing it. They lack cohesion and readiness for self-sacrifice in order for the rest to have a better life. What is missing is exactly what was demonstrated in Ukraine during the expulsion of the criminal regime of Yanukovych in 2013. Moreover, the majority of Russian citizens even support the current attack on Ukraine and rocket attacks on peaceful Ukrainian cities. For this they will have to pay for many of their subsequent generations. Leaving the country is not an option. Need to change Russia through democratic reforms. This will still remain an internal problem of the Russians and only they will have to solve it.

[be.open]

The problem for Russian citizens is that Putin's crime family has been ruling there for decades and the Russians are incapable of overthrowing it. They lack cohesion and readiness for self-sacrifice in order for the rest to have a better life. What is missing is exactly what was demonstrated in Ukraine during the expulsion of the criminal regime of Yanukovych in 2013. Moreover, the majority of Russian citizens even support the current attack on Ukraine and rocket attacks on peaceful Ukrainian cities. For this they will have to pay for many of their subsequent generations. Leaving the country is not an option. Need to change Russia through democratic reforms. This will still remain an internal problem of the Russians and only they will have to solve it.

You have strange ideas about a better life. Ukraine is a bankrupt country, unable to exist without continuous external financing, in your opinion is this the better life?

[DrBeer]

The problem for Russian citizens is that Putin's crime family has been ruling there for decades and the Russians are incapable of overthrowing it. They lack cohesion and readiness for self-sacrifice in order for the rest to have a better life. What is missing is exactly what was demonstrated in Ukraine during the expulsion of the criminal regime of Yanukovych in 2013. Moreover, the majority of Russian citizens even support the current attack on Ukraine and rocket attacks on peaceful Ukrainian cities. For this they will have to pay for many of their subsequent generations. Leaving the country is not an option. Need to change Russia through democratic reforms. This will still remain an internal problem of the Russians and only they will have to solve it.

You have strange ideas about a better life. Ukraine is a bankrupt country, unable to exist without continuous external financing, in your opinion is this the better life?

I already began to worry about you, I thought where I had disappeared - in the outback you are hiding from the agenda "to defend your homeland and rubber ass", or you have already been sent to slaughter after handing the summons! And you're back Hiding from the agenda? Nothing - December - January will fix that

About the bankrupt country - this is very exciting, tell me a new topic from the old training manual?
I’ll also throw in a well-worn Temko - “Ukraine will freeze in winter without Russian gas” - I listen to this topic in a warm apartment, every November / December! Already 10 years
Well, I’m not distracted - let’s talk about bankrupt Ukraine, and the powerful economy of terrorists ... oh, Russia

[be.open]

I already began to worry about you, I thought where I had disappeared - in the outback you are hiding from the agenda "to defend your homeland and rubber ass", or you have already been sent to slaughter after handing the summons! And you're back Hiding from the agenda? Nothing - December - January will fix that

I did not receive a summons for mobilization, because I did not serve in the army. During the military age period, I first studied at the university, and then worked at the enterprise of the military industrial complex, which provided armor from the army for its employees. However, I am quite healthy, in good physical shape, I have a hunting license and practical shooting skills - so I can go to the front as a volunteer (and maybe I will do it in the spring so as not to freeze my ass in the trenches in winter). For now, this is not necessary. As an experienced bounty hunter, I am waiting for Putin to sign a decree on the allocation of a hectare of land near Odessa to the participants in the special operation.

About the bankrupt country - this is very exciting, tell me a new topic from the old training manual?
I’ll also throw in a well-worn Temko - “Ukraine will freeze in winter without Russian gas” - I listen to this topic in a warm apartment, every November / December! Already 10 years
Well, I’m not distracted - let’s talk about bankrupt Ukraine, and the powerful economy of terrorists ... oh, Russia

Ukraine's GDP has already fallen by 30%, the Central Bank of Ukraine recently kept the key rate at 25%, from an economic point of view, Ukraine is bankrupt and completely dependent on funding from the US and the EU. After a week of attacks on TPP transformers, Ukraine stopped exporting electricity to the EU and switched to an energy-saving mode with rolling blackouts throughout the country. In nighttime satellite images, Ukraine is already a black spot on the continent. Keep pretending everything is fine.

[DrBeer]

I already began to worry about you, I thought where I had disappeared - in the outback you are hiding from the agenda "to defend your homeland and rubber ass", or you have already been sent to slaughter after handing the summons! And you're back Hiding from the agenda? Nothing - December - January will fix that

I did not receive a summons for mobilization, because I did not serve in the army. During the military age period, I first studied at the university, and then worked at the enterprise of the military industrial complex, which provided armor from the army for its employees. However, I am quite healthy, in good physical shape, I have a hunting license and practical shooting skills - so I can go to the front as a volunteer (and maybe I will do it in the spring so as not to freeze my ass in the trenches in winter). For now, this is not necessary. As an experienced bounty hunter, I am waiting for Putin to sign a decree on the allocation of a hectare of land near Odessa to the participants in the special operation.

1. By the new year, you will receive an agenda, you will realize your dreams
2. We ourselves allocate land to you ... A little, somewhere 1mx2m, in the fields. The fertilizer from your soldiers is excellent! Thank you for this!

About the bankrupt country - this is very exciting, tell me a new topic from the old training manual?
I’ll also throw in a well-worn Temko - “Ukraine will freeze in winter without Russian gas” - I listen to this topic in a warm apartment, every November / December! Already 10 years
Well, I’m not distracted - let’s talk about bankrupt Ukraine, and the powerful economy of terrorists ... oh, Russia

Ukraine's GDP has already fallen by 30%, the Central Bank of Ukraine recently kept the key rate at 25%, from an economic point of view, Ukraine is bankrupt and completely dependent on funding from the US and the EU. After a week of attacks on TPP transformers, Ukraine stopped exporting electricity to the EU and switched to an energy-saving mode with rolling blackouts throughout the country. In nighttime satellite images, Ukraine is already a black spot on the continent. Keep pretending everything is fine.

GDP of course sank a lot. It's stupid to argue. There is a total terrorist attack on Ukraine by Russia. It's stupid to deny. But you do not see the meaning of the word "bankrupt". It's like in Russia it was in 1998 - it's bankrupt, and default on foreign debts. example. And Ukraine fulfills its obligations, plus, the countries are real friends, and not "fraternal people" terrorists, given the situation, have simplified the requirements and, moreover, financially help. So what about Ukraine - Bankorot, these are your fantasies, regular ones

The black spot is just "Zimbabwe with snow" - I hope you understand who it is about And the fact that terrorists from Russia terrorize the civilian population, bombing peaceful cities, civilian infrastructure, totally losing the war - nothing, we will restore everything, slightly reduce consumption. The main thing is that the country of the terrorist should be destroyed, which, in general, is the point


PS So where did you hide from the agenda for a week?

[be.open]

PS So where did you hide from the agenda for a week?

I did not hide anywhere, just unlike you, I have no obligations regarding the number and frequency of writing messages on this forum.

You are trying in vain to exaggerate the scale of partial mobilization in Russia. Personally, I do not know anyone who was mobilized after September 21 this year. In total, about 150 people (and some of them volunteers) were mobilized from my city with a population of about 50 thousand inhabitants.

[Smartprofit]

The Russian Federation is conscripting around 300.000 troops (take with a pinch of salt). This comes, in theory from reservists and, as usual, most recruits will come from the politically irrelevant regions in the East and South. Many people in the RF know that there are good chances of getting killed in Ukraine and the RF is not being attacked (rather the opposite). In a regime that is quite harsh with protesters and opposition, it is remarkable how many are publicly protesting across the country.

By contrast, other have decided to simply leave. When the war begun, many flew and now even more. The people who can afford to do so and live away for a long time are precisely the professional elite and the most capable individuals (doctors, engineers, IT people, expert economists and similar). I think that this is going to have a deep effect in the economy of the RF.

Would you run away to avoid conscription? What will be the effect on RF economy?

Of course I will do everything that is within my power to flee from a country in which a government is trying to make me fight in a war, and just as you mention at Russia the people that are against the war do not have a lot of options to show their discontent with the government, so the best way to do this is by showing that you are not willing to go to war and be killed, and the only realistic way to do this is by fleeing from Russia, obviously this is not an easy decision to take because those which were born there will have to leave their loved ones behind, but when your life is at risk you do not really have too much of a choice.

I don't understand why kill in other countries where you will be a disenfranchised person. Already in Kazakhstan, apartment rent has increased several times, which is much higher than wages. In Turkey, Georgia, Uzbekistan, the same thing, the prices for renting real estate are growing. In Russia, it is enough not to live at the official place of registration or to buy a destroyed house in the village and register there, but to live elsewhere.

You're right.  

Theoretically, a war could also break out in the south, which would affect the territory of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.  This war can be started by the Taliban.  On the other hand, China is likely to be able to protect these countries (especially Kazakhstan).  The countries of middle (or otherwise central) Asia are currently under the patronage of China.  

There are other risks for emigrants (conflicts with local residents, interethnic conflicts, etc.).  

At the same time, what is happening in Russia is monstrous.  And I'm not sure that Russia will be a safe place for people in the next 10 years.  Too much evil and aggression.  I try to reason with my compatriots, but many are acting like crazy.  Perhaps those people who left Russia made the right choice and everything will be fine with them over time.  I dont know.  

Perhaps Kazakhstan will become a leader among other countries of the former CIS, and Georgia will become a mecca for IT companies.  This is a possible option.

Partial mobilization will have a very negative impact on the Russian economy.  In addition to the men mobilized to the front, a huge number of educated and sought-after specialists (men of working age) left the country.  In addition, many have left their official jobs (at work they hand out subpoenas from the military commissariat) and are hiding.  Their wives and mothers are in a state of terrible stress and are also unable to work effectively.  Even those people who are relatively safe cannot focus on work, as they begin to realize that their future has been stolen from them.