The economic effect of people flying from RF mandatory conscription

[paxmao]

The Russian Federation is conscripting around 300.000 troops (take with a pinch of salt). This comes, in theory from reservists and, as usual, most recruits will come from the politically irrelevant regions in the East and South. Many people in the RF know that there are good chances of getting killed in Ukraine and the RF is not being attacked (rather the opposite). In a regime that is quite harsh with protesters and opposition, it is remarkable how many are publicly protesting across the country.

By contrast, other have decided to simply leave. When the war begun, many flew and now even more. The people who can afford to do so and live away for a long time are precisely the professional elite and the most capable individuals (doctors, engineers, IT people, expert economists and similar). I think that this is going to have a deep effect in the economy of the RF.

Would you run away to avoid conscription? What will be the effect on RF economy?

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[Don Pedro Dinero]

Would you run away to avoid conscription?

Yes of course, mainly because I don't agree with the war. If I agreed with it, maybe I'd play Rambo, but since it's a war, or rather an invasion, which I understand is unjust, I'd try to escape if I could.

What will be the effect on RF economy?

The effects of wars are usually bad for the economy in general, for both sides, and this is something we are seeing in Europe. If the war were to end today, the situation could only improve, in Russia, Ukraine, the EU and the rest of the world in general.

[electronicash]

The Russian Federation is conscripting around 300.000 troops (take with a pinch of salt). This comes, in theory from reservists and, as usual, most recruits will come from the politically irrelevant regions in the East and South. Many people in the RF know that there are good chances of getting killed in Ukraine and the RF is not being attacked (rather the opposite). In a regime that is quite harsh with protesters and opposition, it is remarkable how many are publicly protesting across the country.

By contrast, other have decided to simply leave. When the war begun, many flew and now even more. The people who can afford to do so and live away for a long time are precisely the professional elite and the most capable individuals (doctors, engineers, IT people, expert economists and similar). I think that this is going to have a deep effect in the economy of the RF.

Would you run away to avoid conscription? What will be the effect on RF economy?

its a mandatory for them and they are at war, anyone who will run will be considered a deserter. if you are in a country at war also, everyone who were trained as military service will have to comply to serve the country. just like US army, its also their military duty. they are also proud to join the force. they can't just run besides European countries suspend visa issuance and restrict Russian citizens.

[Lucius]

According to the data, Russia has about 146 million inhabitants and I do not believe that this emigration will have too great an impact on their economy, unless the final figure is a few million people who are somewhat important for the system. Even if this happens, there is always the possibility that Russia will import labor from friendly countries.

I am surprised that the borders are not closed and that people are allowed to leave, although I guess the rule according to which a conscript can refuse to participate in the war still applies, because Russia still defines it as a special operation.

I assume that the question is aimed at the Russian members of the forum, but I certainly would not go to a war that is by all definitions a war of conquest and which does not respect the Geneva Conventions. Some say that only cowards run away, but in this case, all those who do not want to have bloody hands and an unclean conscience are running away.

[davis196]

What will be the effect on RF economy?

Is this a rhetorical question? The impact will be negative, of course. Many people with good education will leave the country.
The scale of the negative impact probably won't be that big. Tens of thousands of people aren't that big number for a country with 146 million, but most of the people running away are skilled and educated.

Even if this happens, there is always the possibility that Russia will import labor from friendly countries.

What friendly countries? North Korea and Syria? Perhaps North Korea might send several thousand educated people, but they will have to learn Russian first. I don't think that the regime in North Korea would let educated people leave the country. They probably won't go back once they leave.

[stompix]

According to the data, Russia has about 146 million inhabitants and I do not believe that this emigration will have too great an impact on their economy, unless the final figure is a few million people who are somewhat important for the system. Even if this happens, there is always the possibility that Russia will import labor from friendly countries.

It's 146 total, and only half of them roughly 70 million work, you cut half of them again since the ones working for the government, police,  doctors, and teachers, as well as government-owned companies, won't be sent to the frontline and you have 200k in the first wave and roughly 400k now, that's about 3% and a further 1% of what's left going to the frontline and probably going to get killed or left handicapped for life. Plus it won't be the cashier at Auchan that would be fleeing but the ones that have enough money to flee, the ones with education and experience that know how to get a job, and more importantly who have the money to pay one year of advance on rent in a foreign country, not to mention the 2000E plane ticket 

Of course, the effect won't be felt immediately but in a year or two, the consequences will be disastrous, not only was Russia's population shrinking rapidly before now it will be worse and worse in the year to come.

Would you run away to avoid conscription? What will be the effect on RF economy?

If my country would be that stupid in the first place not only would I have left the moment the war started but way back!
If I were on the other side, the attacked one, that's it, I would pack my bag and go do what I was trained to do, my relatives died in the war, a few of my older relatives in the previous war, probably dozens did in the other century, guess it would be my time.
Shitty ending, but I had a good run!

[Lucius]

What friendly countries? North Korea and Syria? Perhaps North Korea might send several thousand educated people, but they will have to learn Russian first. I don't think that the regime in North Korea would let educated people leave the country. They probably won't go back once they leave.

I don't know where you get your information from, but China has very good relations with Russia, and we should also mention Iran and India, which in most things behaves as if there is no war. In addition, at least 25% of the countries in the world are in some kind of neutral mode with Russia, so if we add it all up, it is a market of several billion people who would come to work for the right price if necessary.

~snip~
Of course, the effect won't be felt immediately but in a year or two, the consequences will be disastrous, not only was Russia's population shrinking rapidly before now it will be worse and worse in the year to come.

Just as sanctions do not have a direct effect on the Russian economy, nor is the departure of people something that will break the economy in a month or two. However, somehow I do not believe that Putler will allow mass emigration, the borders can be closed at any moment, war can be officially declared and everyone who tries to escape will be treated as deserters. Today I read what the President of Belarus said about this while consoling his colleague from Moscow, and that is that it might be good for some people to leave, because what is the use of them if they do not want to be loyal servants of the regime.

Although the situation is not identical, I can somewhat draw a parallel with what has been happening in my country in the past 10 years, which is the loss of over 400 000 people (about 10% of the total population), which is not a problem for the ruling politicians, because not only they have reduced unemployment, but they have already gotten rid of the critical mass that was a possible trigger for changes in the country.

[Mauser]

Would you run away to avoid conscription? What will be the effect on RF economy?

Being fully honest I would probably run away if I would get drafted to join the military during a full scale war. First of all, I have 0 military training and never really shoot a rifle. In my country military training is not mandatory anymore and the military doesn't have a high social standing. The second motivation would be that the news out of Ukraine are very bad for Russia, the front line is collapsing and the chances of winning are very small. Why risk your life in a doomed war? The third problem for me is that it seems there is only 2 weeks of military training before being developed to the front line. That's not enough to get effective soldiers who will be able to fight veteran Ukrainian troops.
The effect on the Russian economy will be devastating. I read on the weekend that already 250,000 young Russian man left the country. Together with all the people that are being drafted there will be a lot of people missing from workforce which is going to reduce the economy even further.

[Hydrogen]

Would you run away to avoid conscription? What will be the effect on RF economy?

If a global recession sets in, no one will have economic statistics worth being proud of. Perhaps a better question may be what america, the EU and other nations of the world do to prepare for negative economic effects. There isn't much point in celebrating the alleged demise of russia's economy when the economy of our own nation could soon suffer a similar fate. Russia's national debt being around 20% of GDP could place it in a better position to weather economic disruptions in contrast to other nation's of the world.

I saw a source which claimed russia's military invaded ukraine despite lacking radio encryption. This is the type of factoid the media could publicize more. If their goal were to make Putin and the russian military appear incompetent or weak. Overall wartime danger for conscripts is not very high at the moment, I think. The ukraine coalition appears to have success based around deployment of HIMARs which primarily targets russian military leadership and supplies. Its not the average russian soldier who is being targeted the most. Life expectancy for russian conscripts could be much better than it is for high ranking officers.

While the "what would you do, if you were a russian conscript" portion of OP's post might appear hypothetical. It is possible that the united states could launch a full offensive on russia once the 2022 elections are over. Of which conscription or a draft could play a major role.

I honestly don't know what I would do if conscripted/drafted. Being a frontline soldier isn't the only option. Militaries of the world have 2x to 3x or greater support personnel for every available soldier. Statistically there is a chance conscripts could wind up being refrigerator repairmen. Or land in a support role. Having some type of technical or mechanical ability could make conscripts better suited to office work than wielding an AK-47.

The best course of action might be to lookup which support roles are most needed to support front line troops. Take courses to develop a skillbase in that area. That way if you are conscripted you'll have a decent chance of qualifying for a support staff role, rather than front line combat.

[Fortify]

The Russian Federation is conscripting around 300.000 troops (take with a pinch of salt). This comes, in theory from reservists and, as usual, most recruits will come from the politically irrelevant regions in the East and South. Many people in the RF know that there are good chances of getting killed in Ukraine and the RF is not being attacked (rather the opposite). In a regime that is quite harsh with protesters and opposition, it is remarkable how many are publicly protesting across the country.

By contrast, other have decided to simply leave. When the war begun, many flew and now even more. The people who can afford to do so and live away for a long time are precisely the professional elite and the most capable individuals (doctors, engineers, IT people, expert economists and similar). I think that this is going to have a deep effect in the economy of the RF.

Would you run away to avoid conscription? What will be the effect on RF economy?

The Russian economy is in ruins already right now, they managed to keep the illusion going for the first 6 months - before Putin was finally so stupid as to turn off the oil and gas taps to Europe for the last time. Even in the whole of the Soviet union and the Iron Curtain the Russian government saw how valuable an income source it created. In just the last two days the Russian stock exchange has collapsed further than ever before and remember that is happening when foreign nationals are not allowed to sell stocks, so it's all locals cashing their stocks out. Almost all foreign businesses which brought vitality to the Russian markets have pulled out and getting hold of vital components will become ever harder. Frankly the conscription will be the only reliable job left in Russia very soon, that is how stupid their government have let them down for a petty war.

[edgycorner]

I am sure that it will. How? First, the army will consume a lot of resources (and the army is huge).
Second, the conscription will hurt the economy since it will take away a lot of people who are needed.
Third, the conscription will hurt a lot of families who will have to change their economic activities and will have to support the conscripts.
Fourth, it will cause a lot of economic disruptions since a lot of people will be displaced.
And fifth, the conscription will hurt the morale of the people who will see their sons, brothers and friends going to die in a war that they don't support.


As for me, I will obviously flee. No doubt. Only idiots die in wars lol

[lovesmayfamilis]

The news that is now showing hundreds of Russian guys fleeing their country to avoid mobilization is overblown. Although I am aware that many young men have arrived in my country in recent days, this is a negligible proportion. Polls show that these are people who are engaged in IT technologies, and just by staying in another country, they will not change anything for themselves. While working remotely, they still continue to work in Russia. 
Among other things, Russia should have the composition of its army, and, frankly, I don’t understand why civilians are mobilized when the number of military and trained people is huge. 
As for the impact on the economy, I doubt that those who leave will be able to influence it in any way.

[buwaytress]

Would you run away to avoid conscription? What will be the effect on RF economy?

If my country would be that stupid in the first place not only would I have left the moment the war started but way back!
If I were on the other side, the attacked one, that's it, I would pack my bag and go do what I was trained to do, my relatives died in the war, a few of my older relatives in the previous war, probably dozens did in the other century, guess it would be my time.
Shitty ending, but I had a good run!

Who wouldn't run away to avoid conscription when you're the invading army? It's different when you're defending your home (thinking of Britain for example, high rate of voluntary show) but I think every country's who'd had to forcibly recruit (or conscript if we want) will always face runaways. Well documented in the 1970s at least I know of, probably more so today in a fluid age of globalisation.

Defending your home, it's seldom even an option if you've got family to protect. And Bitcoin wallets to preserve haha.

We're fortunate if we don't have that choice to make.

[stompix]

~snip~

Just as sanctions do not have a direct effect on the Russian economy, nor is the departure of people something that will break the economy in a month or two. However, somehow I do not believe that Putler will allow mass emigration, the borders can be closed at any moment, war can be officially declared and everyone who tries to escape will be treated as deserters.

The border with Kazahstan is twice as long as the one between USA and Mexico, not to mention the one in Mongolia which is roughly the same, a few hundred dollars and every border patrol will let you off with cheers!
People have managed to fled the USSR, this will be a piece of cake.

I don’t understand why civilians are mobilized when the number of military and trained people is huge. 

Because up til now you've believed Putin's number about only one guy who was terminally ill dying in Ukraine when the numbers are in the tens of thousands? What happened to the regular army, the highly trained one that was supposed to attack when Ukraine's military was spent, sleeping on Moskva?

Polls show that these are people who are engaged in IT technologies, and just by staying in another country, they will not change anything for themselves. While working remotely, they still continue to work in Russia.

Yeah, working in Russia, getting paid from Russia but, what a surprise spending all their money in the country, let's multiply a simple sum of 1500$ a month by 300k who have left only this wave and you've got 5 billion$, money that was supposed to come back in the economy and fuel growth, instead you have money coming out and helping the former friendly states who are now laughing and spitting on the former wanna be a global power. But everything is going great there, once you capture that borsch that Ukraine didn't want to share with you everything will be even better.

I am sure that it will. How? First, the army will consume a lot of resources (and the army is huge).

Not when you're required to bring everything from socks to bullet proofs vest and tampons instead of bandages from home. 

Russia's national debt being around 20% of GDP could place it in a better position to weather economic disruptions in contrast to other nation's of the world.

Yeah, I bet all those people dying from hunger in Africa are far better off since they don't have any debt while the ones with a 20 years mortgage on a 10 million suite in Manhattan are living a nightmare. Congo has a 17% debt to GDP ratio, I might be wrong but is that a country you would want to settle in? 

[malcovi2]

The news that is now showing hundreds of Russian guys fleeing their country to avoid mobilization is overblown. Although I am aware that many young men have arrived in my country in recent days, this is a negligible proportion. Polls show that these are people who are engaged in IT technologies, and just by staying in another country, they will not change anything for themselves. While working remotely, they still continue to work in Russia. 
Among other things, Russia should have the composition of its army, and, frankly, I don’t understand why civilians are mobilized when the number of military and trained people is huge. 
As for the impact on the economy, I doubt that those who leave will be able to influence it in any way.

I see, I guess you are still wearing your blinder.

Yes, Its not overblown that Russian Youtubers are not fleeing your country and all of the videos by shared by multiple Russian people are a hoax. Also the amount of trolls on reddit was significantly reduced when the mobilization was announced.

I don’t understand why civilians are mobilized when the number of military and trained people is huge. 

Are you still relying on your media to discern why Putin is mobilizing citizens?

[bittraffic]

The news that is now showing hundreds of Russian guys fleeing their country to avoid mobilization is overblown. Although I am aware that many young men have arrived in my country in recent days, this is a negligible proportion. Polls show that these are people who are engaged in IT technologies, and just by staying in another country, they will not change anything for themselves. While working remotely, they still continue to work in Russia. 
Among other things, Russia should have the composition of its army, and, frankly, I don’t understand why civilians are mobilized when the number of military and trained people is huge. 
As for the impact on the economy, I doubt that those who leave will be able to influence it in any way.

I see, I guess you are still wearing your blinder.

Yes, Its not overblown that Russian Youtubers are not fleeing your country and all of the videos by shared by multiple Russian people are a hoax. Also the amount of trolls on reddit was significantly reduced when the mobilization was announced.

I don’t understand why civilians are mobilized when the number of military and trained people is huge. 

Are you still relying on your media to discern why Putin is mobilizing citizens?

Any general would not risk young men to just give them riffles, train them for about 2 weeks and then put them on the frontline. That would be a suicide which is not logical for a Russian general to do that.

The conscription is for people who had been trained in military services before and are put into different departments like for Fire Department or Disaster Rescue Department. They are probably reporting to the military once a month, they are not civilians. If civilians are fleeing, they'd be putting themselves in danger. Not all countries, welcome refugees with hospitality.
 

[malcovi2]

The news that is now showing hundreds of Russian guys fleeing their country to avoid mobilization is overblown. Although I am aware that many young men have arrived in my country in recent days, this is a negligible proportion. Polls show that these are people who are engaged in IT technologies, and just by staying in another country, they will not change anything for themselves. While working remotely, they still continue to work in Russia.
Among other things, Russia should have the composition of its army, and, frankly, I don’t understand why civilians are mobilized when the number of military and trained people is huge.
As for the impact on the economy, I doubt that those who leave will be able to influence it in any way.

I see, I guess you are still wearing your blinder.

Yes, Its not overblown that Russian Youtubers are not fleeing your country and all of the videos by shared by multiple Russian people are a hoax. Also the amount of trolls on reddit was significantly reduced when the mobilization was announced.

I don’t understand why civilians are mobilized when the number of military and trained people is huge.

Are you still relying on your media to discern why Putin is mobilizing citizens?

Any general would not risk young men to just give them riffles, train them for about 2 weeks and then put them on the frontline. That would be a suicide which is not logical for a Russian general to do that.

The conscription is for people who had been trained in military services before and are put into different departments like for Fire Department or Disaster Rescue Department. They are probably reporting to the military once a month, they are not civilians. If civilians are fleeing, they'd be putting themselves in danger. Not all countries, welcome refugees with hospitality.
 

Do you want videos of drunk Russian minorites being mobilized or rusty AK's and why would Wagner even use criminals to bolster their numbers if they aren't lacking the manpower?

[DrBeer]

The Russian Federation is conscripting around 300.000 troops (take with a pinch of salt). This comes, in theory from reservists and, as usual, most recruits will come from the politically irrelevant regions in the East and South. Many people in the RF know that there are good chances of getting killed in Ukraine and the RF is not being attacked (rather the opposite). In a regime that is quite harsh with protesters and opposition, it is remarkable how many are publicly protesting across the country.

By contrast, other have decided to simply leave. When the war begun, many flew and now even more. The people who can afford to do so and live away for a long time are precisely the professional elite and the most capable individuals (doctors, engineers, IT people, expert economists and similar). I think that this is going to have a deep effect in the economy of the RF.

Would you run away to avoid conscription? What will be the effect on RF economy?

The reality is a little different:
1. 300,000 disposable Russians, this is the first wave, not the most successful mobilization of the second army in the world
2. If the old Kremlin asshole does not return to a more or less adequate state (for example, it dies), there will be only 4 waves, with a total number of 1,200,000 bodies driven to the slaughter.
3. That tacit agreement with which they go to death, meaningless, suggests that in the life of these bipeds there is nothing more or less valuable
It will not hurt the economy - how can you hurt a dying economy.
4. Russians leaving for other countries will receive the status of guest workers, will work at the cheapest job, and send their relatives to Russia 100-150 dollars of income per month

[Darker45]

I would run away to avoid conscription. Why would I leave a good job or a good business to kill other people who didn't do anything to myself, my loved ones, or even my country? Why would I leave my family just to sustain a crazy invasion? Why would I leave a peaceful and good life just to support a violence that I do not share and am even embarrassed of. Even if I don't really want to, I'd leave my country with my family and be at peace somewhere else.

However, this is somebody speaking who is probably looking at the current invasion with a different lens. I don't idolize Putin. I wasn't brainwashed. I am not subjected to its harsh rules and its implementation from the authorities. I am not living my day-to-day life listening to or watching propaganda from the radio or the television, respectively. To those who went through all this, however, he/she might be more than willing to kill or be killed.

If this movement will be massive, then it might indeed affect the country's economy in one way or another.

[zasad@]

The news that is now showing hundreds of Russian guys fleeing their country to avoid mobilization is overblown. Although I am aware that many young men have arrived in my country in recent days, this is a negligible proportion. Polls show that these are people who are engaged in IT technologies, and just by staying in another country, they will not change anything for themselves. While working remotely, they still continue to work in Russia. 
Among other things, Russia should have the composition of its army, and, frankly, I don’t understand why civilians are mobilized when the number of military and trained people is huge. 
As for the impact on the economy, I doubt that those who leave will be able to influence it in any way.

I see, I guess you are still wearing your blinder.

Yes, Its not overblown that Russian Youtubers are not fleeing your country and all of the videos by shared by multiple Russian people are a hoax. Also the amount of trolls on reddit was significantly reduced when the mobilization was announced.

I don’t understand why civilians are mobilized when the number of military and trained people is huge. 

Are you still relying on your media to discern why Putin is mobilizing citizens?

Any general would not risk young men to just give them riffles, train them for about 2 weeks and then put them on the frontline. That would be a suicide which is not logical for a Russian general to do that.

The conscription is for people who had been trained in military services before and are put into different departments like for Fire Department or Disaster Rescue Department. They are probably reporting to the military once a month, they are not civilians. If civilians are fleeing, they'd be putting themselves in danger. Not all countries, welcome refugees with hospitality.
 

One Russian general said something like this: "If the sons and relatives of all deputies and other leaders are sent to the front lines, then the war will end quickly"
In the meantime, many people from poor families are taken to the war, it will continue.