"Gareth Soloway: BTC to 3,5k possible" How likely is that?

[DanWalker]

Yes, anything is possible but I wouldn't believe there is any big enough crash to cause bitcoin to plummet 3.5k again. I was shocked when I saw this analysis, the lowest guess I've seen is 10k and I assume that's unlikely as well. Nowadays a lot of funds, big companies as well as countries are holding a lot of bitcoins, so I don't think they let bitcoin fall so miserably. Scenarios that could make this happen, really I can only think of world war that could make things worse. I can't think of any reason for bitcoin to drop there.

[mindrust]

What to do you think about this theory from Gareth Soloway:
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-10-18/Bitcoin-could-fall-to-3-5K-as-recession-intensifies-and-stocks-collapse-Gareth-Soloway.html

He  argues that Amazon has fallen 95% in the dotcom bubble, and that the same could happen with Bitcoin.

How realistic do you think such a scenario is?

Nothing is impossible with crypto. $100k or $1k, all of them are in the real of possibilities. Lots of people will go mad at him but he is simply telling the truth. Crypto has no price floor as it don't have price ceiling. If you can't stomach the volatility, you shouldn't own any crypto and move to more less volatile assets like real estate.

Bitcoin lost more than 85% of its peak price before, it can definitely happen again. That's no big news.

[tvplus006]

How realistic do you think such a scenario is?

Imho it's not realistic, the price has already fallen a lot and there seem to be buyers very happy with the current price levels...

If the price of bitcoin decreases by another 2 times, then buyers will be even more satisfied. Until quite recently, it was impossible to believe that the price could decline to the current one, but as we decline, we are already beginning to accept the fact that nothing is impossible when it comes to BTC.

[NeuroticFish]

Until quite recently, it was impossible to believe that the price could decline to the current one, but as we decline, we are already beginning to accept the fact that nothing is impossible when it comes to BTC.

Actually you're incorrect. I was telling since June that under 10k is possible. And we're at 19k.
Of course, 3.5k is much worse and much less likely to happen, especially that the cycle should start turning towards getting bullish. That's why I've called 3.5k unrealistic.
But the recession may be changing everything.

[stefan466]

The problem i see is that Bitcoin only existed in a S&P500 Bullmarket. We had the -85% Drops in Bitcoin, but they always happened while the S&P500 was in a Bullmarket since 2010.

Bitcoin never existed in a real bearmarket of the S&P500, like the 2000 Dotcom Bearmarket und the 2008 Bearmarket. That`s why i think we could drop further.

[Nrcewker]

It’s hardly possible for Bitcoins to go such low price. I mean I am not blabbering out of thin air. I am saying this by seeing the numbers and outcomes. Have you seen Bitcoin’s marketcap ? It’s enough to make a newbie understand that how big and popular Bitcoins are. Moreover Bitcoins are very low in price, if we compare it with the ATH. Many buyers including me are happy with the price, and are buying Bitcoins as many as possible, so definitely price won’t fall more. Rather due to the large demand of the coins, the price will soon increase.
Let’s hope for the best.

[SirLancelot]

It’s hardly possible for Bitcoins to go such low price. I mean I am not blabbering out of thin air. I am saying this by seeing the numbers and outcomes. Have you seen Bitcoin’s marketcap ? It’s enough to make a newbie understand that how big and popular Bitcoins are. Moreover Bitcoins are very low in price, if we compare it with the ATH. Many buyers including me are happy with the price, and are buying Bitcoins as many as possible, so definitely price won’t fall more. Rather due to the large demand of the coins, the price will soon increase.
Let’s hope for the best.

Sorry but it seems you are really blabbering out of thin air. Btc's market cap is already high even before but why we have seen btc drop down to 3k usd last time? Anything is possible and $3k may happen again if ever history repeats itself. Bear market is said to remain for a long time so there's always more room for the price to decline.

There are people who buy and hodl a btc and one of it is you but keep in mind that there are whales and big institutions who will do the opposite thing. They may need money that is why they did that or they simply want to manipulate the market but after all, btc can still recover after some time so there is no need for us to worry.

[Wind_FURY]

Every burst of the bubble is possible. But do you think that we're in a bubble right now where in fact that bitcoin has dropped from $69k to $17k and a few years ago from $20k to $3k? Honestly, I'm done with those bullish predictions that are being published and noticed by people.

Now that there's something like this, it's better to have such negative predictions so that the opposite is what actually comes. Remember those bull runs when we're all expecting $100k and then the opposite has happened.

We're just pleb-investors who either get very optimistic, OR become very pessimistic. I myself had some doubts in my current investment thesis, but I truly believe that buying during DIPs of bear markets is the best times to accumulate Bitcoins, and HODL. Plus especially in the current bear market, the Central Banks have actually tightened thr most in 20 years. You know what will follow after the tightening? I believe the next big surge during the next bull market will be like the surge of 2015 - 2017.

[Silberman]

The problem i see is that Bitcoin only existed in a S&P500 Bullmarket. We had the -85% Drops in Bitcoin, but they always happened while the S&P500 was in a Bullmarket since 2010.

Bitcoin never existed in a real bearmarket of the S&P500, like the 2000 Dotcom Bearmarket und the 2008 Bearmarket. That`s why i think we could drop further.

This is an interesting observation, it is true that bitcoin for most of its life it has existed in an environment that was conductive for its growth, but now things are going to change as the economies of the world face all kind of issues in the future, however we believe that bitcoin is a store of value and those are the conditions in which a store of value should shine, so while a further reduction of the price is possible it is also possible the next bull market could be many times more intense than what we thought.