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Author Topic: Bear market likely over?  (Read 2960 times)
imamusma
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September 11, 2023, 05:40:16 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #261

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We will see that, be happy, the Bitcoin market today was hit by a negative sentiment and became a bearish sentiment again after some time before recovering a few months, the candle in September had been confirmed to be a red candle.
Next month gives a better moment to Bitcoin, and the right distance to save Bitcoin to Halving Bitcoin in this cycle, I am very waiting for it.

For predictions of a few days, it is more sideway and below, and that will definitely happen, maybe this sentiment will push the price of Bitcoin to the level of $ 24K- $ 23k back in the next few days before Bitcoin does it back up.
For daily and weekly TFs it can be confirmed as a red candle, but I cannot confirm that this red candle will continue on the monthly TF. This means that there is still a possibility of seeing a green candle before September closes, so don't let your optimism disappear just because of a correction.

In fact we haven't finished the second week for September yet, so I think there's still plenty of time to see the differences. Negative sentiment in the market can turn positive, but it may take some time to expect recovery. Red candles have been kept in July and August, but I didn't hope there to be 3 red candles in a row. While I'm not really sure what caused the market to correct in the last few hours, it's a good idea not to pay too much attention to it if you don't accumulate.

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September 11, 2023, 05:48:11 PM
 #262

We can be fairly certain no reliable trend down is established, we have the lack of pattern if anything.  In spring there was a price channel and it was negative, but we broke out of that upwards.  Sadly it failed to go far, just past 30k but a failed move up is not what fits a bear market.   Some say any decline more then 20%, I dont find that too reliable.
Even though I am tempted to agree with you on this, I think it is fair we make some clarifications for the purpose of context. We have basically two major market conditions: bullish and bearish. Bullish market does not mean market will continue moving up forever and bear market does not mean market will continue doing down move forever.

Bitcoin dropping from ATH of $69k to around $17k does not require any sugar-coated statement but should be pointed out as bear market. Now that price have reluctantly recovered a little towards $26k  does not mean the bears have left the market.

I understand a lot of people just love hearing only nice things about the market that is why we delight so much in seeing the bullrun. Unknown to many is the fact that the bear market is actually where smart guys plan for the bullrun. Indeed, it is in bear market, such as we have now, that is good to buy Bitcoin rather than waiting to jump in during the bulllrun.

I think that you make a good point, at least in regards to clarifying that we should be able to consider that the move from $69k to $15,479 can be constituted as a bear market, so then one of the questions becomes whether or not we are yet out of the bear market.. .and 1) is the bottom in  or 2) are we going to bounce around the bottom (even if higher than the bottom) for long enough that we can confirm that the bear market is not over.

I am not going to proclaim to know the answers to these questions, even though my sense was that the chances were pretty good that the bear market was over when we got above $25k and pretty much stayed above $25k since mid-March 2023.. and yeah, it is not 100% clear while we are in our various price moves whether we are still in the bear market or if it really is over or not... and we can ONLY become more assured that it is over when we are looking back historically regarding what happened and then attempt to label the parts in a historical (more of a full-picture) context.

I really get irritated by some of the attempts to apply traditional definitions of "what is a bear market" and "what is a bull market" and some of the patronizing bullshit that sometimes seems to come when attempting to prematurely label bitcoin markets as bull or bear merely because it fits some kind of a definition that might apply to mature markets or markets generally and blah blah blah..

Now if there is an accounting for the paradigm-shifting nature of bitcoin and/or an accounting for that we are very likely on an exponential adoption s-curve, then surely I would be more receptive for accounts that consider those kinds of particular and real-world bitcoin dynamics.

Seems the bear market is likely going soonest. Congratulations in advance to those who bought low and those hodling for a long time. There is likely going to be a new all time high to be achieved before this year comes to an end. If you can, fill up your bag but do your own research.

What do you all think about the sudden bounce back and price increase on Bitcoin of lately?
The eyes of the investors are raised once again after seeing the current position of the market. Because the market position is not very good at present as we have seen Bitcoin price rise a lot a few days back due to which we have a kind of peace in our mind. But a few days ago we saw the market was $30k dollars but later this month the price of Bitcoin came down to full bear market. Although right now we can see Bitcoin price touching $24k there is definitely enough time for us to buy. If we hold on to this market for a long period of time, we will definitely have a lot of profit potential later on. However, the Bitcoin market will not stay in this position forever, it is always on the ups and downs, we know that and we have to accept it. As various experts have researched Bitcoin price is likely to move to a better position soon. We think the bull market will return to Bitcoin right after the Bitcoin halving in the next year. I think the price of Bitcoin will rise again in a few days and it is likely to go into the new year in a good position.
We will see that, be happy, the Bitcoin market today was hit by a negative sentiment and became a bearish sentiment again after some time before recovering a few months, the candle in September had been confirmed to be a red candle.
Next month gives a better moment to Bitcoin, and the right distance to save Bitcoin to Halving Bitcoin in this cycle, I am very waiting for it.

For predictions of a few days, it is more sideway and below, and that will definitely happen, maybe this sentiment will push the price of Bitcoin to the level of $ 24K- $ 23k back in the next few days before Bitcoin does it back up.

Personally, I think that sentiment is a dumb thing to measure or to give very many shits about, even though sentiment might make some kind of a material difference on the margins, it is likely not a very good way for any long-term bitcoin investor to figure out what to do or what not to do in regards to their own bitcoin stackenings.

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September 11, 2023, 07:38:40 PM
Last edit: September 11, 2023, 08:31:16 PM by SmartGold01
 #263

Even though I am tempted to agree with you on this, I think it is fair we make some clarifications for the purpose of context. We have basically two major market conditions: bullish and bearish. Bullish market does not mean market will continue moving up forever and bear market does not mean market will continue doing down move forever.

Bitcoin dropping from ATH of $69k to around $17k does not require any sugar-coated statement but should be pointed out as bear market. Now that price have reluctantly recovered a little towards $26k  does not mean the bears have left the market.

I understand a lot of people just love hearing only nice things about the market that is why we delight so much in seeing the bullrun. Unknown to many is the fact that the bear market is actually where smart guys plan for the bullrun. Indeed, it is in bear market, such as we have now, that is good to buy Bitcoin rather than waiting to jump in during the bulllrun.

You are right..
We should understand something very pertinent concerning the market that no matter any circumstances we can't change the normalities to abnormalities why because the principles has already be implemented and that shall it be without any readjustment or rearrangement. We should also and always be smart over the market if not any circle we passed can never be recorded anymore, that's is why I so much dislike people focusing much on bullrush without knowing we can't turned down the opposite being the bearrun.

Basically I believe to know that bear season is the accumulation period where every investor and holders should look into making new portfolio by increase their investment plans or to gear up their holdings as any bear we passed can never be like the previous, and what I noticed mostly is that people fails to accept the reality to know the both season are real, again they don't remain statics or stationary, they are subjected to changes are any given point that is why the changing in prices are what brought the sole called trading which we all basically calls DCA.

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September 12, 2023, 08:03:58 AM
 #264

We are still in a bear market right now. To be honest, the graph chart shows that the movement is still on a downward trend. There is therefore no other viable option at the moment to take advantage of the chance to invest in and acquire cryptocurrencies that we believe will generate a high return on our future investments. And what some have said here is true: During current bear season, DCA is still one of the best tactics. The main thing is that we can buy crypto assets for the future if there is a purchase, even if it happens gradually.

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September 12, 2023, 09:35:54 AM
 #265

We are still in a bear market right now. To be honest, the graph chart shows that the movement is still on a downward trend. There is therefore no other viable option at the moment to take advantage of the chance to invest in and acquire cryptocurrencies that we believe will generate a high return on our future investments. And what some have said here is true: During current bear season, DCA is still one of the best tactics. The main thing is that we can buy crypto assets for the future if there is a purchase, even if it happens gradually.
Let's just say that opportunities like this don't come twice, so there is a greater sense of enthusiasm to continue buying crypto assets, even on a DCA basis. Moreover, if the target to buy is Bitcoin, it is clearly very good and will not cause harm as long as you are patient and wait for higher prices. I'm also still very happy to make purchases using the DCA method because it doesn't have such a high burden at all and today I saw Bitcoin almost touch $26K again. Hopefully tomorrow or the next day Bitcoin can pass $26K and approach $27K.

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September 12, 2023, 04:03:45 PM
Merited by fillippone (1)
 #266

I think that you make a good point, at least in regards to clarifying that we should be able to consider that the move from $69k to $15,479 can be constituted as a bear market, so then one of the questions becomes whether or not we are yet out of the bear market.. .and 1) is the bottom in  or 2) are we going to bounce around the bottom (even if higher than the bottom) for long enough that we can confirm that the bear market is not over.
It is somehow challenging knowing what the bottom is as you should already know that no one can accurately predict what the price will do. Besides, I consider it pointless looking for the bottom. Instead of worrying about the bottom, one can just do a simple analysis:

1. what is the ATH of Bitcoin? This being around $69k
2. Check if price is at a discount which is 50%  below the ATH... in the case with Bitcoin, it is a yes.
3. Are there chances of a bullrun in the near future? Yes it is possibly considering that there is a major even next year; an event that always lead to a surge in price.

With the above three points noted and established that price is at a discount and there is a high chance we will see a new ATH, then it is wise to buy using any method such as DCA. To me looking for the bottom might actually be a major distraction and a lot of people who practice this might miss the opportunity to buy at a discount.


I am not going to proclaim to know the answers to these questions, even though my sense was that the chances were pretty good that the bear market was over when we got above $25k and pretty much stayed above $25k since mid-March 2023.. and yeah, it is not 100% clear while we are in our various price moves whether we are still in the bear market or if it really is over or not...
I had this feeling too but the prolonged consolidation within that region made me have a second thought. I will be like: "what is holding the price from leaving this region already?"

R


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September 12, 2023, 05:07:34 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #267

-
We will see that, be happy, the Bitcoin market today was hit by a negative sentiment and became a bearish sentiment again after some time before recovering a few months, the candle in September had been confirmed to be a red candle.
Next month gives a better moment to Bitcoin, and the right distance to save Bitcoin to Halving Bitcoin in this cycle, I am very waiting for it.

For predictions of a few days, it is more sideway and below, and that will definitely happen, maybe this sentiment will push the price of Bitcoin to the level of $ 24K- $ 23k back in the next few days before Bitcoin does it back up.
For daily and weekly TFs it can be confirmed as a red candle, but I cannot confirm that this red candle will continue on the monthly TF. This means that there is still a possibility of seeing a green candle before September closes, so don't let your optimism disappear just because of a correction.

In fact we haven't finished the second week for September yet, so I think there's still plenty of time to see the differences. Negative sentiment in the market can turn positive, but it may take some time to expect recovery. Red candles have been kept in July and August, but I didn't hope there to be 3 red candles in a row. While I'm not really sure what caused the market to correct in the last few hours, it's a good idea not to pay too much attention to it if you don't accumulate.

Well, on a weekly time frame, there is no change in the structure of the bitcoin. Bitcoin is making HH and HL and as long as this structure remain intact the bitcoin will remain bullish. For me, 24,800 - 25,000$ is a key level. A daily close below this level will mean that we may be moving towards a break of structure, and a weekly close below this level will confirm an extended bear market.

I hope Bitcoin will not break this important support and right now we are seeing that Bitcoin is pumping nicely from this support but seriously we would not want Bitcoin to touch this support a few times, making it weak.

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September 12, 2023, 05:37:10 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), mvdheuvel1983 (1)
 #268

There is something that, I think, will play here within this zone of support $24k-$25k, which I used to see happen based on my experience, basically what I call induce of sellers, There is likely a chance that Bitcoin may attempt to sweep that support, wick down then back up and will fail to have a close below that support level in the Monthly time. Just as you said that breaking below that level of support will cause Bitcoin to bleed down against the U.S. dollar, that is basically the kind of play that the market likes to play, to fool people and do the opposite.


 

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September 12, 2023, 06:02:43 PM
 #269

We are still in a bear market right now. To be honest, the graph chart shows that the movement is still on a downward trend. There is therefore no other viable option at the moment to take advantage of the chance to invest in and acquire cryptocurrencies that we believe will generate a high return on our future investments. And what some have said here is true: During current bear season, DCA is still one of the best tactics. The main thing is that we can buy crypto assets for the future if there is a purchase, even if it happens gradually.
Let's just say that opportunities like this don't come twice, so there is a greater sense of enthusiasm to continue buying crypto assets, even on a DCA basis. Moreover, if the target to buy is Bitcoin, it is clearly very good and will not cause harm as long as you are patient and wait for higher prices. I'm also still very happy to make purchases using the DCA method because it doesn't have such a high burden at all and today I saw Bitcoin almost touch $26K again. Hopefully tomorrow or the next day Bitcoin can pass $26K and approach $27K.
Of course it's never too late to buy bitcoin, so there's no need to think about second chances because every time is an opportunity. The DCA strategy is reliable because we can calculate the assets we own, and we don't think about prices, we only think about future goals.

If we look at Btc halving history then next year is the time.
Halving Nov 2012 : ATH Nov 2013
Halving July 2016 : ATH Dec 2017
Halving May 2020 : ATH April 2021- November 2021
But Bullrun has a process where BTC doesn't pump for one day without stopping, so maybe it will happen at the end of 2024 but that's not the peak in my opinion. In 2025 Q1 it will really peak at whatever price. Cmiiw
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September 12, 2023, 08:38:25 PM
 #270

I think that you make a good point, at least in regards to clarifying that we should be able to consider that the move from $69k to $15,479 can be constituted as a bear market, so then one of the questions becomes whether or not we are yet out of the bear market.. .and 1) is the bottom in  or 2) are we going to bounce around the bottom (even if higher than the bottom) for long enough that we can confirm that the bear market is not over.
It is somehow challenging knowing what the bottom is as you should already know that no one can accurately predict what the price will do. Besides, I consider it pointless looking for the bottom. Instead of worrying about the bottom, one can just do a simple analysis:

1. what is the ATH of Bitcoin? This being around $69k
2. Check if price is at a discount which is 50%  below the ATH... in the case with Bitcoin, it is a yes.
3. Are there chances of a bullrun in the near future? Yes it is possibly considering that there is a major even next year; an event that always lead to a surge in price.

With the above three points noted and established that price is at a discount and there is a high chance we will see a new ATH, then it is wise to buy using any method such as DCA. To me looking for the bottom might actually be a major distraction and a lot of people who practice this might miss the opportunity to buy at a discount.

I don't know if you got enough because if we are holding for the long term it might not even matter if we are buying towards the top or the bottom, but surely people appreciate feeling that they are buying towards the bottom and I think that the 200-week and the 100-week moving averages are good for that... shorter time frames have less significance. at least for the longer term holder.. perhaps someone holding 4-10 years or longer, and surely if someone has already been in bitcoin for a couple of years and they were thinking that they were holding for at least 4 years, then they might only have 2 more years left on their hold time, so maybe they get nervous in times like this in which their portfolio is not doing very good after two years, and sure maybe they should be buying more, but if they already bought a lot of bitcoin they might not be in the mood to buy more, even if buying more might be the good move, but buying more should then put their timeline to be 4-10 years on the newly acquired coins... but sometimes people have difficulties with continuing to commit to longer time frames, so they might just let their investment ride, even though buying would bring down their cost per coin (if they happen to be under water)

I am not going to proclaim to know the answers to these questions, even though my sense was that the chances were pretty good that the bear market was over when we got above $25k and pretty much stayed above $25k since mid-March 2023.. and yeah, it is not 100% clear while we are in our various price moves whether we are still in the bear market or if it really is over or not...
I had this feeling too but the prolonged consolidation within that region made me have a second thought. I will be like: "what is holding the price from leaving this region already?"

It is still hard to believe that there are going to be circumstances to bring BTC prices to new lows for this cycle, especially since the low of $15,479 was reached in November 2022 - and the 200-week moving average was around $24k at that time, so the low was around 35% below the 200-week moving average. 

Right now the 200-week moving is $27,691, so to get an equivalent of 35% below the 200-week moving average, BTC prices would have to go below $17,859 if it were to go there today, and the 200-week moving average is continuing to move up about $12 per day, so it just becomes further and further from how far breaking the current low of $15,479 would cause the price to be more than 46% below the 200-week moving average, and I am not saying that it is impossible, but I am saying it sounds a bit unrealistic to even be expecting those kinds of price drops in something as good as bitcoin, absent some pretty strange-ass breaks in what bitcoin is and inabilities to keep downity manipulators in check with actual and real bitcoins that they likely do not have and so at some point it does not make any sense that they can keep the BTC price down if they don't have actual bitcoins to sell rather than make-believe bitcoin.. which causes them to run the risk of getting reckt as fuck..

-
We will see that, be happy, the Bitcoin market today was hit by a negative sentiment and became a bearish sentiment again after some time before recovering a few months, the candle in September had been confirmed to be a red candle.
Next month gives a better moment to Bitcoin, and the right distance to save Bitcoin to Halving Bitcoin in this cycle, I am very waiting for it.

For predictions of a few days, it is more sideway and below, and that will definitely happen, maybe this sentiment will push the price of Bitcoin to the level of $ 24K- $ 23k back in the next few days before Bitcoin does it back up.
For daily and weekly TFs it can be confirmed as a red candle, but I cannot confirm that this red candle will continue on the monthly TF. This means that there is still a possibility of seeing a green candle before September closes, so don't let your optimism disappear just because of a correction.

In fact we haven't finished the second week for September yet, so I think there's still plenty of time to see the differences. Negative sentiment in the market can turn positive, but it may take some time to expect recovery. Red candles have been kept in July and August, but I didn't hope there to be 3 red candles in a row. While I'm not really sure what caused the market to correct in the last few hours, it's a good idea not to pay too much attention to it if you don't accumulate.
Well, on a weekly time frame, there is no change in the structure of the bitcoin. Bitcoin is making HH and HL and as long as this structure remain intact the bitcoin will remain bullish. For me, 24,800 - 25,000$ is a key level. A daily close below this level will mean that we may be moving towards a break of structure, and a weekly close below this level will confirm an extended bear market.

I hope Bitcoin will not break this important support and right now we are seeing that Bitcoin is pumping nicely from this support but seriously we would not want Bitcoin to touch this support a few times, making it weak.

I get your point virasog, but I doubt that it would be as dire for bitcoin as you suggest if some of those squiggly lines end up getting broken ($24,800 - ish). .and then bitcoin still ends up bouncing back, even though it wasn't supposed to be able to .. blah blah blah.

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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September 12, 2023, 08:45:09 PM
 #271

And what some have said here is true: During current bear season, DCA is still one of the best tactics.
Nothing beats that for sure.

The main thing is that we can buy crypto assets for the future if there is a purchase, even if it happens gradually.
That's what DCA actually is. We can buy gradually when the market is on its bearish turn and many take it for granted because they're thinking that it's not going to change any time soon. Well, they could be right but it's also better to get prepared before some opposite force comes to what we're having right now, right?

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September 13, 2023, 04:15:20 AM
 #272

Quote from: Ricardo11
The bear market is not over. Because the price of Bitcoin is now starting to fall. Its price was around 30k for a long time, and now its price has come down even more. Bitcoin price is now 26k. But the bear market is end very soon.

Yes, it will end very soon for bullish season to take over the market but it will be difficult for the bullish season to happen in this year 2023, because it remain few months before the end of this year and the price of Bitcoin is still not stable yet for investors to believe that there is a hope. I think, next year will not be like last year and this year, because it was bearish through out the two years and many investors use the opportunity to buy huge amount of Bitcoin against the next bullish market. I believe from the next price of Bitcoin will determine if the price will decrease more than $25,000 or it will increase above $30,000 for investors to get prepare and not to be panic anymore.

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September 13, 2023, 07:45:43 AM
 #273

Seems the bear market is likely going soonest. Congratulations in advance to those who bought low and those hodling for a long time. There is likely going to be a new all time high to be achieved before this year comes to an end. If you can, fill up your bag but do your own research.

What do you all think about theer
sudden bounce back and price increase on Bitcoin of lately?
lets not fall into trap each time there is a small pump or increase from the prices .
and congratulating those who bought those time are truly a lucky one because there is a more bull market coming than that.
remember the way you must handle your Holding and how long you can keep it.
and calling it Bear are over last year? look how it works till today .
Just Keep your faith in Bitcoin mate , surely it will bring whats best for all of us.
need  to respect bitcoin at all time but never listen to wrong advices.









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September 13, 2023, 08:56:28 AM
 #274

Currently there is a lot of mystery surrounding the hidden world of cryptocurrencies and what is certain is that if you pay attention, the whales keep the selling price lower than the buying price. So, what we need now is what trading strategy to use to make a profit and we know for sure it's different, of course whether you want to use DCA, set your bid at the lowest price or whatever. The important thing is don't miss the train if the bull happens at any time.

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September 13, 2023, 03:03:36 PM
 #275

I get your point virasog, but I doubt that it would be as dire for bitcoin as you suggest if some of those squiggly lines end up getting broken ($24,800 - ish). .and then bitcoin still ends up bouncing back, even though it wasn't supposed to be able to .. blah blah blah.

Yes, that's called manipulation, where the market makers and whales can give an illusion to the retail that look the 24K level is broken, now we are going down and everyone should sell, but usually such manipulation does not last long. Thats why we see "wicks" in the daily and weekly time frame, where the price moves down below important support but before the end of the day/week, recovers back.

In case, the price closes below the major support, does not recover and stays there in a higher time frame (Weekly), then chances are that the trend is broken.

Technical analysis (price action) does work in trading because the trading chart is not representative of the indicators & lines, rather it shows the human behavior and sentiments of the market, but most people do not know how to read them properly.

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September 13, 2023, 06:48:43 PM
 #276

I get your point virasog, but I doubt that it would be as dire for bitcoin as you suggest if some of those squiggly lines end up getting broken ($24,800 - ish). .and then bitcoin still ends up bouncing back, even though it wasn't supposed to be able to .. blah blah blah.
Yes, that's called manipulation, where the market makers and whales can give an illusion to the retail that look the 24K level is broken,

It is also called failure to sufficiently/adequately account for bitcoin's not being a mature asset class that may well not be subject to the blah blah blah the squiggly  lines try to tell you - especially in terms of the ongoing UPpity price pressures that should be accounted for when an asset (such as bitcoin) is a paradigm-shifting asset that has likely underlying exponential s-curve adoption dynamics that might not be adequately taken into account.

now we are going down and everyone should sell, but usually such manipulation does not last long. Thats why we see "wicks" in the daily and weekly time frame, where the price moves down below important support but before the end of the day/week, recovers back.

And you have the right to rely on squigglies as much as you like to make your arguments about what the shadows on the cave walls mean, and sure traders do that and good luck with that nonsense when the better habits are not to necessarily fuck around with those kinds of short term dynamics that may or may not happen in accordance with what the squiggly lines are suggesting to suppose to happen.

In case, the price closes below the major support, does not recover and stays there in a higher time frame (Weekly), then chances are that the trend is broken.

Yes, and all of that could happen, but then BTC could still end up bouncing back... so then you have to come up with a new theory (or explanation), and hopefully you end up attempting to incorporate the s-curve adoption angle that is going to likely bias your little models to the upside no matter what they are telling you "should happen."


Technical analysis (price action) does work in trading because the trading chart is not representative of the indicators & lines, rather it shows the human behavior and sentiments of the market, but most people do not know how to read them properly.

Yes.. you better figure it out if that is what you are doing...

As you might have noticed I don't fuck around with that stuff or recommend that others do it, and I also frequently like to denigrate people who are seeming to assign too many probabilities to what they suggest the charts are telling them is going to happen, and it is quite likely that my own system that largely relies upon accumulate and HODL and don't fuck around with trying to guess BTC price moves, is outperforming the vast majority of traders... so yeah, maybe you are an exception to the rule and you are outperforming DCA, but still, I doubt that there are too many good ideas that come from assertions that if the $25k support  breaks it is going to turn into resistance blah blah blah.. so good luck trading that kind of nonsense in bitcoin.. when likely a much better strategy is to consider that anything around and below the 200-week moving average (which is currently at about $27,700) is a good buy and the lower we go below the 200-week moving average the more you are likely putting yourself into danger if you think that the price is going to go down before it goes up, even if your lil squigglies end up telling you that is what is suppose to happen. and probably your little squigglies don't even account for where we are at in comparison to the 200-week moving average.... so good luck (you are likely going to need it.. if you keep on playing those kinds of games with king daddy) with any sells that you might make or failure to buy because you are expecting lower prices that may or may not end up happening.

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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September 13, 2023, 07:06:55 PM
 #277

Look at price from the mining viewpoint. Miners have always made money at 6 cent power (98% of all time)

Right now what does a six cent power cost miner earn

okay a 140th machine earns 0.062x140 = $8.68 it burns 75 kwatts or $4.50 so profit is $4.18 with the best gear.

second tier gear earns 0.062x110=$6.82. it burns $4.50 so profit is $2.32 with second tier gear.

Miners represent the sane floor price of BTC (ie not speculative price instead more based on actual power expense.)

So next year when blocks half that 140th machine earns $4.38 and burns $4.50 = losing 18 cents with top of the line gear.

this is a rare event it almost never happens.

So in short term of now to next April/May we will likely be at a higher price than 26k. 

Or mining becomes a fail which will hurt a lot of people in a lot of ways.

Mining has been a grind much more than a fail.

So I do not worry that we will be under 30k next spring.

I am thinking 35k to 45k by the scheduled ½ ing date of April 17th. 2024

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khiholangkang
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September 13, 2023, 08:29:51 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #278

We are still in a bear market right now. To be honest, the graph chart shows that the movement is still on a downward trend. There is therefore no other viable option at the moment to take advantage of the chance to invest in and acquire cryptocurrencies that we believe will generate a high return on our future investments. And what some have said here is true: During current bear season, DCA is still one of the best tactics. The main thing is that we can buy crypto assets for the future if there is a purchase, even if it happens gradually.
What do you mean by the mention of crypto? what are altcoins? You need to remember that crypto has a compound meaning, I think we are all here talking about bitcoin and the mention of crypto does not mean bitcoin.

I often hear that the DCA strategy is the right thing to do in various market conditions for those of us who don't want to experience more mental stress due to falling prices in bitcoin, so with DCA you can have a budget to continue buying bitcoin at the price when it decreases. like to day that is still very far from the previous ATH.

The bear market will definitely end, even though it is boring and also very annoying because it makes us bored when the bitcoin portfolio is still in the red.
The winners are those who survive and continue accumulating bitcoin until we smell the delicious aroma of bullrun, and the green aroma is refreshing to the eyes and mind, hold on to holding bitcoin friends so you can inhale the aroma.

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September 13, 2023, 09:10:23 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #279

We are still in a bear market right now. To be honest, the graph chart shows that the movement is still on a downward trend. There is therefore no other viable option at the moment to take advantage of the chance to invest in and acquire cryptocurrencies that we believe will generate a high return on our future investments. And what some have said here is true: During current bear season, DCA is still one of the best tactics. The main thing is that we can buy crypto assets for the future if there is a purchase, even if it happens gradually.
What do you mean by the mention of crypto? what are altcoins? You need to remember that crypto has a compound meaning, I think we are all here talking about bitcoin and the mention of crypto does not mean bitcoin.
I had a good friend JayJuanGee call me to terms on that in another thread and coming here to see someone else straighten it up yet again gives me the chills of what job is been done on the forum and how altcoins continues to be a mess in the hearts of bitcoin faithfuls. How far it’s butter experiences have got us!

Quote
I often hear that the DCA strategy is the right thing to do in various market conditions for those of us who don't want to experience more mental stress due to falling prices in bitcoin, so with DCA you can have a budget to continue buying bitcoin at the price when it decreases. like to day that is still very far from the previous ATH.
That’s the point I sometimes want people to be about when talking about DCA strategy. It ain’t a strategy for a time. I hear some people say DCA during the bear markets but, that’s not the point as I see it about the strategy. It’s supposed to play roles without looking at the market condition. Just dependent on how much you’ve got set aside to invest and you keep buying time after time.
DCA works that way, it removes stress of having yo analyze every market and the anxiety that comes with the market conditions.

I think that you make a good point, at least in regards to clarifying that we should be able to consider that the move from $69k to $15,479 can be constituted as a bear market, so then one of the questions becomes whether or not we are yet out of the bear market.. .and 1) is the bottom in  or 2) are we going to bounce around the bottom (even if higher than the bottom) for long enough that we can confirm that the bear market is not over.
Establishing the point at which the bear market ends isn’t something that comes in a uni agreement. I like to view it for a subjective establishment of what point could be seen to have ended the bears. We could only establish a bill when it’s obviously dominated by the bulls. At the moment, we aren’t completely far from half the price when we compare where price is now and the current ATH. Still, we aren’t far from the dip. The market could be said to be consolidating.

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September 14, 2023, 12:21:47 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Ruttoshi (1)
 #280

So, what we need now is what trading strategy to use to make a profit and we know for sure it's different, of course whether you want to use DCA, set your bid at the lowest price or whatever. The important thing is don't miss the train if the bull happens at any time.

The best way to aim for profit in Bitcoin investment is to buy on the dip and hold till the bull Run, while using the DCA strategy, there may be a need to adjust your buy price, but you cannot predict the price movement, which is why I think that it's better to buy at the current price, at least since the price is not currently so bullish. Some people are readjusting their buy orders to buy at a very low price, but sometimes the market can just have a quick jump in price, and you will lose the opportunity to buy at that low price that you already experienced. There was a friend of mine last year who had the opportunity to buy Bitcoin at $16k but was always adjusting it because he was hoping to buy at $12, but unfortunately for him the price went up and he ended up buying above $20k, which he regrets not buying when the price was still around $16k. So, I think it's wise to buy when the price is not still so bullish.

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