Accumulation phase is out!?

[Cling18]

We have entered the second year of a Bear Market. The market moment we're in has found its support at the peak of 2017's Bull market.

There are those who think that it can still go lower, but the majority agree we have reached a bottom as the selling pressure is losing momentum.

Theoretically, if Bitcoin is able to hold the support at the peak of 2017's bull run, we may see a reverse in the bearish momentum and the start of a new accumulation phase.

I say this phase has already begun. So, what do you guys have to say?

I personally think that the accumulation phase is not yet over and we still have some time left for it to be over.
I guess 6 more months we will be out of the accumulation zone including the breaking of this zone and retesting the support.
May be after that we can enter a bull market. But we never know what the market has to bring for us.

The market has always been unpredictable and surprising at the same time but for me, it's still a good chance for everyone to accumulate good coins, especially those who still took time to save so they will have funds for investment. The bearish season might still take time since there are still lots of economic occurences that affect it but if we'll accumulate during this season, we'll have good preparation when the bull season approaches.

[michellee]

this bearish or sideways situation will still occur in Q1 and make the price decline deeper. Maybe making a short term plan will provide a solution for us to decide so we won't be affected by what will happen in the market. And maybe the last weeks of this year will make the market fluctuate more so we can feel the surprises we never expected. We can only be prepared for everything that will happen and remember to prepare fiat to buy bitcoins.

Yeah, we cannot do anything about the market conditions which is the reason why we need to follow DCA. Keep buying regardless of where bitcoin market is trading will help anyone to get better returns over the times. Some people do stop investing with bitcoins when they do find prices are trading higher than their expected prices (in bullish trend) but in my opinion, we should keep sticking with original plans and same applies even in bearish market as well.

So, unlike OP pointed out, the current bearish market alone not a accumulation phase but we should keep buying from here after until a new ATH in 2025. Then we may take a break in 2026 which might be another bearish trend like 2018 and 2022.

In the current bearish market environment, there are more opportunities for us to buy bitcoins using DCA to control the use of money in purchasing orders. This will help us invest in bitcoin when the price is low and we can stop after the price reaches a certain price so we only have to wait for the price to reach the highest price we want.

We must be observant of market conditions to find out when to buy bitcoins. With the market still in a downturn, this is the perfect time to buy and hold more bitcoins so don't waste time now.

[Yamifoud]

The market has always been unpredictable and surprising at the same time but for me, it's still a good chance for everyone to accumulate good coins, especially those who still took time to save so they will have funds for investment. The bearish season might still take time since there are still lots of economic occurences that affect it but if we'll accumulate during this season, we'll have good preparation when the bull season approaches.

You'll be thinking it was a great opportunity but can't take the higher risk as well especially if you have no experience in a situation like this. The dump can't be all the time a good indication of accumulation, many people just wait for some recovery before investing. That is why I don't encourage people to invest more but also to listen to the market sentiment and feel the trend. Checking the market progress seems to be needed this time.

But of course, if you are just about to hold long-term and have extra money, this will be a good time.

[Oceat]

I believe 10K is the strongest support because it’s a round number and the typical psychological analysis when finding strong support since the known one is already broken.

Whatever the people will say it's still a speculation but if ever $10k is the final bottom then how long does this market has to suffer from the bearish trend? It's quite too deep if you'd ask me about that price but considering that Bitcoin's bottom before the bull run last time was at $3k, so it's possible that $10k would be the strongest support.

Base on previous data, we might experience again long crypto winter that is longer than 6 months like what you are suggesting.

It's been over 6 months now and the market isn't having a plan to move up yet then it's also possible that this bearish trend will continue next year until it hits the bottom. We don't actually know what is the bottom but I hope you are right that it would stick to the $10k as a support.

To OP: Accumulation phase isn't out yet when the market is just like this.

[KingsDen]

We have entered the second year of a Bear Market.

Theoretically, if Bitcoin is able to hold the support at the peak of 2017's bull run, we may see a reverse in the bearish momentum and the start of a new accumulation phase.

I say this phase has already begun. So, what do you guys have to say?

Many people do not believe in the charts ot technical analysis in Bitcoin. They believe that the fundamental analysis drives everything that happens in the market.
They may be very correct about it but I want to let them understand that whatever happens in the fundamental is being replicated in the technical. So the chart might be slow to pick what happens im the fundamental but what the chart helps us to do more is to trace what has happened before (history) and the tendency of it to repeat. So both of the fundamental and technical analysis are important in Bitcoin.

As for what the topic starter is saying I am not an expert in reading chat but I do know that we are in the bottom but $16000 might not be the lowest . My expectation is at worst get the 10000 dollars which may also not happen but this is truly the period where everyone should be accumulating

[Viscore]

I'm not a big fan of chart patterns. It's because I believe Bitcoin reacts in real time. For example, if Elon accepts Bitcoin for Tesla again, the price will skyrocket. On the other hand, if major investors announce their intention to sell Bitcoin, we may see a massive drop as a result of Panic. So how Bitcoin reacts is dependent on various of attributes. So, instead of relying on chart patterns, consider the real-time situation. Because the market is so volatile right now, it's difficult to predict the button.

This has a point. What we see and experienced right now are the effects of real time events, and not because the pattern has its own ups and down. Just like if a bigger country starts to accept and legalized bitcoin, surely it has an effect to bitcoin price. So if there are positive events happening that will create an impact to bitcoin, then as much as possible we can expect that bitcoin will certainly on the rise again.

[GeorgeJohn]

BTC is probably going to 13K, then 9K and so on.

Bitcoin can go to aby price it feels like want to be at this particular point in time, i know quite well that if the price of Bitcoin fall this year to the crash point, definitely it will accelerate to another point, which i believe that the price will definitely increase above, because it's very obvious that the price of Bitcoin is not stagnant and since the origin it has been following the method of going up and going down. So i believe that it's something that will increase any time, so let us not have bias mind or negativity concerning the Bitcoin price regulations, because it will discourage us.

[Ziskinberg]

I'm not a big fan of chart patterns. It's because I believe Bitcoin reacts in real time. For example, if Elon accepts Bitcoin for Tesla again, the price will skyrocket. On the other hand, if major investors announce their intention to sell Bitcoin, we may see a massive drop as a result of Panic. So how Bitcoin reacts is dependent on various of attributes. So, instead of relying on chart patterns, consider the real-time situation. Because the market is so volatile right now, it's difficult to predict the button.

This has a point. What we see and experienced right now are the effects of real time events, and not because the pattern has its own ups and down. Just like if a bigger country starts to accept and legalized bitcoin, surely it has an effect to bitcoin price. So if there are positive events happening that will create an impact to bitcoin, then as much as possible we can expect that bitcoin will certainly on the rise again.

Then we can say that those people who believe that manipulation makes the market prices turn up and down are wrong. But yes, it was to see how the adoption strongly affects the market sentiment and so these FUDs.

More adoption = more demand and leads to a price increase.
More FUDs = more panic selling causing huge price reductions.

[Blawpaw]

It looks like it is holding and in fact we can check that the price is holding right on a support zone which we can sayis where the accummulation is being done. BTC is still trading in the support zone. So, as long as it holds the this zone we should see it go up. Now, if it breaks below the support area ($16.5k) we can see it further down. More picture will clear after the weekly close.

[carlfebz2]

It looks like it is holding and in fact we can check that the price is holding right on a support zone which we can sayis where the accummulation is being done. BTC is still trading in the support zone. So, as long as it holds the this zone we should see it go up. Now, if it breaks below the support area ($16.5k) we can see it further down. More picture will clear after the weekly close.

Now its playing around 16500-17000+ which it is really something that hard to determine whether we would really be going down or have already some change of trend.It is really hard to determine considering that

these moving sideways kind of thingy is really hard to point out which way it would go.Accumulation phase is indeed might happening as of this moment and its really good to see that the price do able to held off

with this strong support in between 15-16k which despite of the bad sentiments and news in the market then this isnt something that do drops hard into the floor
which it does indicate that there is really that demand.

[Hypnosis00]

It looks like it is holding and in fact we can check that the price is holding right on a support zone which we can sayis where the accummulation is being done. BTC is still trading in the support zone. So, as long as it holds the this zone we should see it go up. Now, if it breaks below the support area ($16.5k) we can see it further down. More picture will clear after the weekly close.

I agree that holding is the best thing to do now if you already had fill your bag already but for those who haven't yet, accumulation seems to be a good position as well.

Honestly, after seeing the trend, I have no confidence that the price of Bitcoin will be rallying high surpassing $20k this month. Many had believed that December is a good month in crypto but I say now seems to fail such speculation as I can see that the price will remain in its current range of $16k - $18k.
 

[GeorgeJohn]

Ok so I am not really into trading but if this is right technical analysis then I just hope it is to be true. At least it will break the panic situations for the people around us and we can get back to the normal life. Lolz. For me bitcoin price do not matter as long as we can have it circulated for its current value.

Moreover, I am happy with the bearish market as we can keep buying more and more for time being. Anyways, halving is also coming next year and we can’t deny the fact that it’s gonna have severe affect as well.

What op gave to us is like predicting, and in this scenario you don't have come in conclusion that it's a true or not. So i stand to say that anything concerning cryptocurrency increment can come up at any point in time, and it's not what someone can depend on, so i believe that cryptocurrency when you expect it to rise it might rise and it might not, so nobody is hundred percent sure of it's analysis concerning Bitcoin increment and Bitcoin decrement.

[KingsDen]

Ok so I am not really into trading but if this is right technical analysis then I just hope it is to be true. At least it will break the panic situations for the people around us and we can get back to the normal life. Lolz. For me bitcoin price do not matter as long as we can have it circulated for its current value.

Moreover, I am happy with the bearish market as we can keep buying more and more for time being. Anyways, halving is also coming next year and we can’t deny the fact that it’s gonna have severe affect as well.

What op gave to us is like predicting, and in this scenario you don't have come in conclusion that it's a true or not. So i stand to say that anything concerning cryptocurrency increment can come up at any point in time, and it's not what someone can depend on, so i believe that cryptocurrency when you expect it to rise it might rise and it might not, so nobody is hundred percent sure of it's analysis concerning Bitcoin increment and Bitcoin decrement.

There was when I was thinking that the bear phase will quickly pass away but I have realised that we will dine with the bear market for a very long time. You don't have to panic, just keep DCA-ing at your pace. There is a  whole lot 16months to DCA before expecting huge profits

[Adbitco]

2017/18 bear market was something terrible and unbearable this year 2022 market has broken the record to be worst bear market rising from $68k down to $15k which is about 72 percent lost for those who investing at the ATH. From my view bear might have ended by now but i believe it was because of the recent turbulence caused by Luna and FTX which raise lot of dust / sentiment in the market.

[Mpamaegbu]

I'm not a big fan of chart patterns. It's because I believe Bitcoin reacts in real time. For example, if Elon accepts Bitcoin for Tesla again, the price will skyrocket. On the other hand, if major investors announce their intention to sell Bitcoin, we may see a massive drop as a result of Panic. So how Bitcoin reacts is dependent on various of attributes. So, instead of relying on chart patterns, consider the real-time situation. Because the market is so volatile right now, it's difficult to predict the button.

If you observe it closely too you will discover that the real time situations are somehow inadvertently captured in the charts earlier before they happen. That's what signals leading indicators of pivot points and trendlines do. Sometimes such unannounced "real life" movements are captured in spikes and false buys or sells. That's when you find a solid buy position suddenly turns sell but doesn't linger on the sell for long before it goes back to buy. For me, charts are like compass to navigate the murky speculative water which is the major characteristic of this industry. I like looking at charts.

[cabron]

I'm not a big fan of chart patterns. It's because I believe Bitcoin reacts in real time. For example, if Elon accepts Bitcoin for Tesla again, the price will skyrocket. On the other hand, if major investors announce their intention to sell Bitcoin, we may see a massive drop as a result of Panic. So how Bitcoin reacts is dependent on various of attributes. So, instead of relying on chart patterns, consider the real-time situation. Because the market is so volatile right now, it's difficult to predict the button.

If you observe it closely too you will discover that the real time situations are somehow inadvertently captured in the charts earlier before they happen. That's what signals leading indicators of pivot points and trendlines do. Sometimes such unannounced "real life" movements are captured in spikes and false buys or sells. That's when you find a solid buy position suddenly turns sell but doesn't linger on the sell for long before it goes back to buy. For me, charts are like compass to navigate the murky speculative water which is the major characteristic of this industry. I like looking at charts.

Those real-time spikes also trigger dumps because they easily can be seen as false pumps for short-term traders.

I think I will also be accumulating slowly this time DCAing while many speculators are already thinking we are at the bottom already base on the indicators they use. They just can't tell when we can see spikes that can increment up to 5% in a week. 

[Blawpaw]

Trading is at a slow state due to the holiday season. BTC is still trading below the $17k level. we can look at this in two positive perspectives:

1-If BTC is able to hold and got through the middle line of the bearish flag then we may see a pump up to the $18k-$18.5k level.
2- If the price starts moving down from here, it may test the $16k level again, and if it holds there, then we see an upside movement up to $18k from there.

If any of these propositions becomes true, then we may consider an accumulation phase for sure.

[Finestream]

I think there is still more time for people who would like to invest and join the market considering that the results of FTX collapse haven't ended yet whereas more companies and exchanges are declaring their pankruptcy. Apart from this, we recently read some rumors about investigating Binance for money laundering suspicion, these news confirm that the war between exchanges haven't settled which might lead the market for further depreciation.

With more expected scandals next to FTX, I can say that the market will be more dumping and will provide more opportunities especially for newly investors to enter the market. Seems that the more centralized exchanges are going to collapse, the market will be more attractive for greater accumulation of potential coins. So everything that is happening today are not seen in the chart or patterns, but all are real life events that brought massive changes in the market.

[kawetsriyanto]

2017/18 bear market was something terrible and unbearable this year 2022 market has broken the record to be worst bear market rising from $68k down to $15k which is about 72 percent lost for those who investing at the ATH. From my view bear might have ended by now but i believe it was because of the recent turbulence caused by Luna and FTX which raise lot of dust / sentiment in the market.

It is not 72% lost but 75+% lost from its ATH. Check again CMC or Coingecko, mate. 
NO, there is no way that the bearish season ends now or ends in the near future. You can see that BTC price is below $17k, it is even very hard to increase to $17k- $18k. How can BTC recover very soon with this condition? By the way, if we consider the 4 year cycle, we just begin 2nd year bearish season in the next year (2023). So, in theory, we still have 1 year more for the bearish season.

Luna and FTX crashes are just the factors that drive the price drop further. Actually, it is not very surprising during this bearish season.

[LUCKMCFLY]

A month after this thread is being created, we can say that we are still in the accumulation phase.

Although some green lights happened just recently, we can't say that it's now the start of the expectation of a bull run. What's the next thing to do? Just to accumulate as much as we can as we don't know if something like this, on the price level like this, will still happen in the future after a bull run.

These might be a different 4Q to anyone as they used on seeing a rocketing price during this month.

Well, in part, what I have always done in my personal analysis is that we are in a phase of re-accumulation, of course I am saying this based on the Wyckoff method, which I have always been guided to do my corresponding analysis, this is One way to do it, for example, it works for me to apply the Wyckoff method in Accumulation, re-accumulation, Distribution phase and redistribution phase, when we are in a trend, whether it is a bullish or bearish trend, I apply other things, such as Elliot waves and I really see them with a higher success rate, so these are some of my tricks to be able to study the market.