Did you test this indicator for the past how it would outperform?
yep
after lessons learned mentioned already and below.. if i now trace it the bottom line cost stays below the market at all times
you also notice things more, like why 2016 started at ~$450 and ended up near $900 (halving event caused)
you notice when new gen asics became popular as the main miner. like when the S9 dominated the mining pools the prices went up
as did the s19
take things like
2011 when GPU pool mining took majority over solo GPU mining
or when asics first jumped into pools in 2013
there are many things you can learn by factoring mining variables
EG
2010 first price discovery. 1 year later ATH
2012 first halving. 1 year later ATH
2016 second halving. 1 year later ATH
2020 third halving. 1 year later ATH
you start to see events that effect mining costs booster the confidence in the bottom line value. which then sends market price speculation up
..
its worth noting
in 2018 i did make the mistake of "daily" value checking where value did go up to $5.6k by summer of 2018
however by not staying with periodic value and staying an a low of the start of the period. i raced ahead . where by in autumn 2018 the hashrate declined and so the value declined. which allowed the market to decline
i should have stuck to the start of year value number not the daily number
as i in hindesight now and learned my lesson that its best to stick to cycles(4 year) with periodic checks inbetween
such as6month-2year.
to have the base line number of value that sits below price speculation
so take this lesson with you. dont get ahead of yourself basing underlying support bottom line based on the short term daily/monthly changes of hashrate when calculating mining cost. stretch it out over 6months or more to get the better average.. because thats what the most efficient miners do when they pay their bills 6-24 months at a time.. and not daily
I put a lot of importance to HALVING. Halving day is the last day that I would DCA into BITCOIN
you wrote an interesting theory about how miners affect the price.
However, I have this question:
If the price would drop drastically below $15k, than hashrate would drop drastically. Many miners should turn off their computers. As a result, you would have less competition for mining in the market and the strongest miners will remain. In times of crisis such as recession, the market destroys many companies. So many miners maybe will need to sell under this prices to exit out of this buisnes with positive 0.
So why shouldn't some of the larger miners banropt in coming recesion and sell to us undervalued BITCOINS?
Thank you for the detailed explanation. It makes more sense now.
real bitcoin dominance include only :
Bitcoin (BTC)
Litecoin (LTC)
Ethereum (ETH)
Bsv (BSV)
Bcash (BCH)
Monero (XMR)
DASH (DASH)
Zcash (ZEC)
Bitcoin Gold(BTG)
Ethereum Classic (ETC)
Dogecoin (DOGE)
Decred (DCR)
I think that this list is wrong,
Not important at all, if you look at real dominance or at coinmarketcap dominance ( i look at bouth). Conclusions are the same
coimn market cap is meaningles as ezplained a few posts about of making an alt with 1trill premine for 1cent
here is something you should look into
if a altcoin has any real community behind it. a niche service/feature only that altcoin has where there are a dominant userbase using it. then they would be setting their own sentiments about the utility which convert to individual trading patter of unique pricing compared to bitcoin.. in short the market price wiggles wont be wiggling in same pattern as another coin
however
ethereum is tracing bitcoin prices. which shows that there is not much unique trading happening in ethereum and instead if just bitcoin traders arbitraging that is holding ethereums market inline..
yep if there was another dominant coin it would be trading in its own unique spikes and dips of the market chart
enjoy
https://i.imgur.com/B6HErEj.png1) there is an altcoin season, and there is a bitcoin season
2) From halving to halving, from the top of the cycle to the next top of a new cycle, and from the bottom to the next bottom,.. it is very difficult to get an altcoin that would outperform bitcoin. So if you're betting blind, it's best to buy bitcoin
3) Statistically, bitcoin dominance is highest when bitcoin reach new ATH in the next halving. So altcoins will be worth buying blindly when bitcoin hits $69k.
There are too many altcoins to study them all. And the fact is that 99% of altcoins are scams
4) It is therefore wise to hold Altcoins for a few months max on 4 year cycle
5) look at ada, look at XRP. These are alts that do not outperform bitcoin in the long term and have a lot of believers.
6) then shiba or doge, which have no fundamentals and grow more than other altcoins that have some fundaments
That's why I will change 10% of bitcoin to altcoins during the bitcoin mania phase.
But when it is necessary to sell altcoins, that is a completely different topic.
Ant when to buy ETH is also topic for a new topic
So you will claim that it wasn't any under-20k price good for starting DCA? Interesting...
And how often you suggest buying while doing this DCA? Daily? Weekly? Or?
$16K, $18K, it doesn't make a difference.
While people are getting spooked out of Bitcoin (bad Halloween joke), they are wasting their money on Cyber Monday (!) discounts that could've been spent to buy Bitcoin at these very discount prices.
I mean admit it, we have pretty much the best discount on the entire internet right now. 80% off from $69K FTW!
Don't get me wrong, people are going to wish that they bought this dip in 2025. Mark my words. Feel free to link back to this post then.
Its totaly same buying BITCOIN at 16k or 18k.
But its not same to buy BTC at 30k or at 8k.
DCA is not so easy task. I needed a lot of study and discipline to start DCA under $21k.
Today i added additional 1% to BTC with price under $16k per BTC.
For now i DCA 11% of my total bankroll into BTCPrice in range 15k- $16k are very atractive to me. Becouse many BITCOIN indicators scream botom is very close
So you will claim that it wasn't any under-20k price good for starting DCA? Interesting...
And how often you suggest buying while doing this DCA? Daily? Weekly? Or?
$16K, $18K, it doesn't make a difference.
While people are getting spooked out of Bitcoin (bad Halloween joke), they are wasting their money on Cyber Monday (!) discounts that could've been spent to buy Bitcoin at these very discount prices.
I mean admit it, we have pretty much the best discount on the entire internet right now. 80% off from $69K FTW!
Don't get me wrong, people are going to wish that they bought this dip in 2025. Mark my words. Feel free to link back to this post then.
I completely agree (and see, you are being quoted now too). But my point was not about the exact price, it was more about the "abrupt call for DCA" the OP has made. He cleared up later on that he was DCA-ing since under 21k, so we're good.
And yes, Bitcoin is certainly at Black Friday discount (and pretty much only those who bought in the previous market cycles - and didn't sell - could argue this).
Black friday is here yes
But we also discus how big this disount will be.
No doubt that this price in 2024-26 will be a price that everyone wish to buy at. But those who will wish to buy at this prices, are now claiming BITCOIN will go to 0
[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]
