Bitcoin's Future: What Happens When the Block Reward is Lower Than Fees?

[DaveF]

Looking at the last days worth of blocks you also have to think about the fee amount that people are willing to pay.
There are still a significant number of transactions paying 100+ sat /vb when 1 sat / vb will get you into the next block.

As BTC gets more popular and widely used I don't see that changing, and if anything it's going happen more and more.
So, in the end the regular fees will probably top block rewards sooner then we seem to be talking about here.

Still 20+ years away.

-Dave

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[yhiaali3]

My question on this topic is what is the role of whales in such a situation?

I mean how would whales who own thousands of bitcoins worth millions of dollars react when they see mining rewards drop and miners abandon their machines as the price of bitcoin continues to drop?
Will they be content to watch their bitcoins collapse in value in front of their eyes? Or will they do everything they can to raise the price of Bitcoin again?

I think it's an important question.

[philipma1957]

My question on this topic is what is the role of whales in such a situation?

I mean how would whales who own thousands of bitcoins worth millions of dollars react when they see mining rewards drop and miners abandon their machines as the price of bitcoin continues to drop?
Will they be content to watch their bitcoins collapse in value in front of their eyes? Or will they do everything they can to raise the price of Bitcoin again?

I think it's an important question.

Duh whales will move to doge.


 Doge has endless legs as the 10000 coin reward never ends.

So the supply is not limited like BTC, but the 'printing' of coins interns of percent gets smaller every year.

ie:

year 1  x coins
year 2 2x coins 100% inflation rate.

year 5 5x coins
year 6 6x coins 20% inflation rate

year 10 10x coins
year 11 11x coins 10% inflation rate

year 20 20x coins
year 21 21x coins 5% inflation rate

year 50 50x coins
year 51 51x coins         this is 2013 + 51 = 2063

rewards for btc would be about 0.00305 in 2064 see below





All of above is why I said we should go to 8 year ½ ing to stretch the dropping of rewards out over a longer time.

same 21 mill coins but making 20 minute block times and 72 blocks a day gives system more time to adjust to the drop-off.

I would argue the  worst things for btc are

1) 4 year ½ ing
2) is only 8 digits not 10
3) LN
4) block size should go up on a regular basis we can get to 32 we are at 2

those four things make doge look really good in 2064

[RahbabaKahn]

For a transaction to be validated either quickly or slowly depends on the fee rewards for those transactions.  Bigger transactions usually require larger fees, making them more attractive for miners to process.  Smaller transactions with very small fees may wait a long time in the queue before being validated by miners.  In 2024, when block rewards will be half what they are today, the miners will need to make up the loss by getting higher fees, or processing more large transactions than small ones in order to maintain their profits.  So while the blockchain network may not be slower, the end-user wait time will be perceived to be much longer than it is now.  I believe that will have an impact on users who want rapid financial transactions, not slow ones, resulting in either  less demand for bitcoins, or higher transaction fees for all rewards.

[Sr.Urbanist]

I see a lot of problems with BTC and current scaling issues and a shift to LTC/DOGE as a more likely solution than BTC continuing to work well.

Script mining can be fun, and the merge mining of LTC and DOGE could potentially be beneficial as it provides two revenue streams to miners. It's interesting to note that one used to mine LTC and receive DOGE, but now the reverse happens, demonstrating the volatility and uncertainty of the market. The rise of Bitcoin as the dominant cryptocurrency seems inevitable, with its first-mover advantage and recent recognition as legal tender in El Salvador. As history has shown, the actions of one nation often inspire imitation in others.

Doge will thrive and BTC will falter.

LN really hurts BTC in the not so distant future.

That is why I mine both DOGE and BTC

Quoted for when it doesn't happen

The lessons learned from the scaling debate and the enduring strength of Bitcoin as market money serve as a reminder of the power of staying true to one's principles.

So, in the end the regular fees will probably top block rewards sooner then we seem to be talking about here.

Still 20+ years away.

The inherent design necessitates that the number of transactions within a block must either increase or the value of the fees for those transactions must increase in order to sustain mining. In this way, we are confronted with a paradox: as the value of Bitcoin increases, so too does the value of each satoshi used to pay the fee. It is a complex balance, one that demands careful contemplation and discernment.