Hmmm....No way!

[Eternad]

I see that you ignore the 1 year candle pattern prior to what you isolated year. During 2015 pump there’s a long year of sideways and downtrend while on the current year was we just hit the ATH last year so this current downtrend that you are emphasizing is different to the pattern on 2015 since today’s downtrend is from a double top while 2015 is from double bottom.

It’s too early to expect for bullrun to come because there’s no record on crypto history that previous ATH has been broken with just 1 year gap. The 4 years cycle is still in play.

[LoyceV]

Halving's are generally quite a exciting time though. Both prior to it, and after. That's simply just because people are optimistic, other than any sort of pattern though.

I like how theymos put it:

Historically, the post-halving runup has happened some time after the halving, presumably after people started to really feel the reduced supply.

I also expect the effect to be less each time, because the block reward is lower already, which reduces it's influence.

[Welsh]

I also expect the effect to be less each time, because the block reward is lower already, which reduces it's influence.

Yeah, and eventually we'll see stability currently the way block rewards are distributed it actually encourages volatility due to high amounts getting pumped into the market every so often. Whereas, the lower the reward becomes, in theory the lower impact it'll have on the market. Therefore, the volatility should be reduced. That's when I believe we'll truly see mainstream adoption, when companies don't have to worry about volatility so much.

That's obviously going to take some time though, due to the nature of halvings.

[Moeda]

Discuss the events from the photos below.





It couldn't of been this easy? Could it?

The top two charts show the increase in price in the same number of days, or as the peak of the bullrun. And the last two charts show price declines in the same number of days, or you can say bearish. Based on chart analysis, maybe we can say that the current Bitcoin price is the bearish end. If we go back to the exchange, and look at the current Bitcoin price movement, it always moves at $ 16k to $ 18k. If we can use this chart as a guideline, of course now is the right time to buy Bitcoin.

[jossiel]

It only proves that bitcoin's and charts are unpredictable. No matter how we the correlation of it as we analyze it, time and time again that it will come that it'll be very going far away from those predictions.

But I'm stuck in one belief that every halving, we'll see new ATH and even it may have that different pattern and motion after each cycle, that's okay. Just looking long term on it.

[o48o]

It couldn't of been this easy? Could it?

It never is, until it is. I remember saying same thing and laughing at this cup and handle -pattern in 2016. I had just experienced my first huge bear market and never experienced real huge bull market so not in a millon years could have seen what's coming.

It only proves that bitcoin's and charts are unpredictable. No matter how we the correlation of it as we analyze it, time and time again that it will come that it'll be very going far away from those predictions.
-cut-

How does any of this prove anything about being unpredictable? OP literally pointed out a pattern that could repeat, as we don't yet know the result it isn't proof of being unpredictable.

[Yatsan]

It only proves that bitcoin's and charts are unpredictable. No matter how we the correlation of it as we analyze it, time and time again that it will come that it'll be very going far away from those predictions.

But I'm stuck in one belief that every halving, we'll see new ATH and even it may have that different pattern and motion after each cycle, that's okay. Just looking long term on it.

That is because the market price is solely dependent with demand. And demand is simply a factor which does not have a cycle to ALL things except for seasonal marketable goods. See and observe how this market is being affected by slighest news around the world such as wars and such which are not even directly connected with this industry but are making huge effects. So I think patterns on long runs won't really determine certainty but a different thing could work with short term speculations through the use of TAs. Another thing to consider is; if TAs are not always accurate, how come same thing could work for annual market behavior of the price?

It couldn't of been this easy? Could it?

It never is, until it is. I remember saying same thing and laughing at this cup and handle -pattern in 2016. I had just experienced my first huge bear market and never experienced real huge bull market so not in a millon years could have seen what's coming.

It only proves that bitcoin's and charts are unpredictable. No matter how we the correlation of it as we analyze it, time and time again that it will come that it'll be very going far away from those predictions.
-cut-

How does any of this prove anything about being unpredictable? OP literally pointed out a pattern that could repeat, as we don't yet know the result it isn't proof of being unpredictable.

There no such thing I guess as definite patterns 'coz if there is, why is the market on a downtrend even if the market is assumed to be on upward motion because we are on the 4th quarter of the year already.

[jossiel]

It only proves that bitcoin's and charts are unpredictable. No matter how we the correlation of it as we analyze it, time and time again that it will come that it'll be very going far away from those predictions.
-cut-

How does any of this prove anything about being unpredictable? OP literally pointed out a pattern that could repeat, as we don't yet know the result it isn't proof of being unpredictable.

Is bitcoin predictable? Yes. But it has shown many times that it's also unpredictable. In the past years, we can totally see that it's unpredictable and theories and analyses that we've seen like s2f model.

It only proves that bitcoin's and charts are unpredictable. No matter how we the correlation of it as we analyze it, time and time again that it will come that it'll be very going far away from those predictions.

But I'm stuck in one belief that every halving, we'll see new ATH and even it may have that different pattern and motion after each cycle, that's okay. Just looking long term on it.

That is because the market price is solely dependent with demand. And demand is simply a factor which does not have a cycle to ALL things except for seasonal marketable goods. See and observe how this market is being affected by slighest news around the world such as wars and such which are not even directly connected with this industry but are making huge effects. So I think patterns on long runs won't really determine certainty but a different thing could work with short term speculations through the use of TAs. Another thing to consider is; if TAs are not always accurate, how come same thing could work for annual market behavior of the price?

It's hard to look at long run but we're having that idea that it could be the same or slightly different when the next bull run comes.

We always have to remember that we're all speculating on a speculative market.

[adaseb]

So it’s been a few weeks after and the weekly lows didn’t break yet. I am not saying it was the bottom but if it was and it was this simple then it’s pretty crazy.

If this pattern works out then I can assume that the Next top will be at a similar time. Basically same number of weeks from bottom to top. So if Bitcoin is at like $50K or $80K or $125K make sure you sell this time.

[dansus021]

the history repeat it self, that is why there is trader try to predict the market. but if this true this gonna be last time we stocked up and then ride it to the moon. anyway i have something familiar with your chart to.

[adaseb]

So trading really is this easy... just need to know how to count and you are golden.

[kotajikikox]

So trading really is this easy... just need to know how to count and you are golden.

how I wish it is that easy for me mate, tried counting many times but still a loser lol.

But if only that i follow your thread here then something good will come out from my investment though I have bought at low(17k actually) yet I find this increase a little bit early to sell out.

maybe waiting for at least 25k? possible to come ?