Bitcoin still looking bearish during the holidays

[bitcoindata21]

Looking at the orderbook, the whales are trying to push the price down, taking advantage of low liquidity during holiday times, especially on coinbase

My latest video goes through each exchange to see where and how the price is being pushed around

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x78YQP-FxyM

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[bitcoindata21]

Some of the whales you think are bearish will soon be bullish, the downtrend in price that you are noticing could be what would start the next bull run. The price is low already, just buy and forget until the the price rise, 1 bitcoin is 1 bitcoin.

I continue my weekly DCA.

Lol its got nothing to do with what i think, i'm simply showing the orders and liquidity that affect and move price. Good for you if you want to DCA, its pretty obvious thats not what i'm talking about.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Looking at the orderbook, the whales are trying to push the price down, taking advantage of low liquidity during holiday times, especially on coinbase

My latest video goes through each exchange to see where and how the price is being pushed around

What part of this orders are spoofing?
What part of this orders are waiting arbitrage orders and will disapear when price will get closer?
What part of this orders are just orders form marketmakers?

Don't you think that looking at this indicator gives you same information as traditional TA but is far more disturbed/blurred by false data?

[yhiaali3]

This behavior is expected, it is normal for whales to try to push the price down to get Bitcoin at the lowest prices, especially during the festive period when the movement is almost at a standstill.

But the question is how far will they continue to push the price down? This is not clear.

In any case, for the long-term investor, this is not important because he set a goal and will not sell before achieving the goal. As for the speculator, he must be careful and stay away from the market in the current period, at least until the beginning of the new year, when some movement is expected in the market.

[bitcoindata21]

Looking at the orderbook, the whales are trying to push the price down, taking advantage of low liquidity during holiday times, especially on coinbase

My latest video goes through each exchange to see where and how the price is being pushed around

What part of this orders are spoofing?
What part of this orders are waiting arbitrage orders and will disapear when price will get closer?
What part of this orders are just orders form marketmakers?

Don't you think that looking at this indicator gives you same information as traditional TA but is far more disturbed/blurred by false data?

Good questions, that is not the conclusion i've come to at all. Combining many exchanges doing the same thing usually gives me strong confluence. The only thing i've found that counteracts my orderbook bias is either strong stock market moves and/or strong market buying/selling

Obviously some are spoofing, but that doesnt mean they dont work. Human nature is easy to manipulate, so the same patterns happen again and again including effective spoofing or other whale strategies. Like i said, combining all the exchanges usually provides a clearer possibility. Right now more are bearish than bullish

[bitcoindata21]

This behavior is expected, it is normal for whales to try to push the price down to get Bitcoin at the lowest prices, especially during the festive period when the movement is almost at a standstill.

But the question is how far will they continue to push the price down? This is not clear.

In any case, for the long-term investor, this is not important because he set a goal and will not sell before achieving the goal. As for the speculator, he must be careful and stay away from the market in the current period, at least until the beginning of the new year, when some movement is expected in the market.

I am a long term investor, but i speculate aswell to maximise my accumulation. I'm sure there are many like me, not everyone being either an investor or trader only.

[boltz]

Without a doubt!

The entire market is still in a heavy bear trap and I don't see anything to change in the coming months so don't be surprised if we gonna see Bitcoin under 16k until new year comes or even during the day. I also remember well that whenever we had a crossing between years and Bitcoin was in bear market , it always dropped in price at 12:00 and the next day as well so this might be just another situation like that.

Meanwhile , take a break from Bitcoin and cryptos at least for 2 days and enjoy your time with your loved ones.

[Welsh]

Not sure they're using the holiday low liquidity I'd say it's more the recession that's basically looming. We've already had record breaking increases in inflation, and obviously what comes with that is higher prices for everything, thus lower investment potential. People are struggling to clothe, and feed themselves let alone invest in Bitcoin which has shown the potential to swing from one extreme to another.

That's the real reason; I don't think its whales looking to push the price down. It's simply because there's less buying power due to the fact that everyone is skint right now, and have higher priorities.

[dimonstration]

Do you try to compare the liquidity on all the orderbook of different major exchange to established a conclusion?

Having a thin orderbook usually imply that there’s less traders during holiday but that doesn’t mean the price will dump since there’s no big movement on either side. I really want to see same analysis with comparison on multiple exchange orderbook liquidity. This is a good basis to determine if there’s already a trend built-up or the thin orderbook just a result of the CEX reputation itself like what happened on Binance which user remove there balance due to fear on losing money.

[bitcoindata21]

Do you try to compare the liquidity on all the orderbook of different major exchange to established a conclusion?

Having a thin orderbook usually imply that there’s less traders during holiday but that doesn’t mean the price will dump since there’s no big movement on either side. I really want to see same analysis with comparison on multiple exchange orderbook liquidity. This is a good basis to determine if there’s already a trend built-up or the thin orderbook just a result of the CEX reputation itself like what happened on Binance which user remove there balance due to fear on losing money.

yes if you look at the video i have compared all the main exchanges and i also change the order size for each chart to make it more clear. this leaves only the orders that correlate with price reversals with support/resistance. most of the time price does reverse. occasionally the price can break through with volatility but with risk management this is not a problem

[bitcoindata21]

i see many are sceptical of order book data. i should add that i combine it with the following: macro + liquidity, stock market movements, technical analysis, onchain data + my models created from them. the only time i use orderbooks in isolation is for intra day scalping. overall i use the books for short term and medium term. it is too unreliable for long term moves, and there are better sources for that anyway.

[OgNasty]

I’m sure a lot of it is harvesting losses for tax purposes. The market has been so stable lately I don’t see signs of manipulation. I see signs of exchanges buying up BTC and keeping the price stable to recoup customer funds they traded away. Meanwhile the retail trader is probably selling all their coins at the bottom, which ironically the exchange sold at the top and is now paying them bottom market prices for.

[pixie85]

Some of the whales you think are bearish will soon be bullish, the downtrend in price that you are noticing could be what would start the next bull run. The price is low already, just buy and forget until the the price rise, 1 bitcoin is 1 bitcoin.

I continue my weekly DCA.

I have a comparable strategy. At 50k+ I was only spending everything, but doing it slow to benefit from possible long term bull market and 100 thousand dollars.

When we came below 30 thousand I started to accumulate slow, doing some DCA with the money I had on my exchange accounts.

When we went below the psychological level of 20 thousand I said to myself that I'm not throwing away bitcoin this cheap. I went into heavy, constant DCA using only the money that I need to pay the bills every month and spending all the rest on bitcoin.

I don't care what the whales are doing. There's a reason why the time we're in is called the accumulation phase.
The time to sell was in distribution. If you managed that you made some money.

[adaseb]

Nothing has been happening during the holidays. Everything is trading sideways. The only coin I can see that is getting volatility is Solana due to what is happening with FTX.

Apparently as soon as he was free, sol started to tank. And then there was news of devs leaving. And it broke to a new low, it’s heavily shorted due to funding rate and getting squeezed. Everything else , not doing anything.

[TheGreatPython]

Some of the whales you think are bearish will soon be bullish, the downtrend in price that you are noticing could be what would start the next bull run. The price is low already, just buy and forget until the the price rise, 1 bitcoin is 1 bitcoin.

I continue my weekly DCA.

I have a comparable strategy. At 50k+ I was only spending everything, but doing it slow to benefit from possible long term bull market and 100 thousand dollars.

When we came below 30 thousand I started to accumulate slow, doing some DCA with the money I had on my exchange accounts.

When we went below the psychological level of 20 thousand I said to myself that I'm not throwing away bitcoin this cheap. I went into heavy, constant DCA using only the money that I need to pay the bills every month and spending all the rest on bitcoin.

I don't care what the whales are doing. There's a reason why the time we're in is called the accumulation phase.
The time to sell was in distribution. If you managed that you made some money.

Spending everything but doing it slowly? I think this is confusing. When you said everything then you don't have anything left to spend later on but it's fine as long as you can HODL and don't sell at a loss. Your decision of doing a DCA by the time the price falls to 30k dollar is a good move because there are more dips that are being recorded after that. Imagine if you don't do a DCA but you just buy the normal way then maybe you are regretting now because you found out that the price didn't stop from falling yet.

It's no surprise on why BTC is still bearish during these times, because BTC have been on this state even before. If whales dumped it even more then that's great.

[el kaka22]

You see bitcoin market bearish but I feel like it is rock stable during these festival days. In December, we got chances to test $18k levels but from that we came back and keep trading around $16500 levels till today. At the end of year, bitcoin market trading 'stable' must be a good sign for rising; usually failing to break resistance levels and coming back to range bound alone will lead to further fall but keep trading stable definitely will lead to bounce back.

All signs are leading us to have a stronger bulls in the first quarter of 2023. Probably, 2nd quarter could be another round of bearish to sideways market but we may not see below $20k at those times.

[traderethereum]

The current state of the market gives us an opportunity to take a short break to enjoy the New Year's moment.
And if market conditions also don't change until the new year ends, we still have to wait and use it to buy more because bitcoin conditions can change immediately after this moment.
We also don't know if bitcoin will surprise us because it seems the price of bitcoin is not moving much.
But stay alert because we don't know when bitcoin will move again, so we have to set up an alarm to follow the market on time.

[STT]

Significance of the price currently is that we are just below the 23% pullback fib level for low to high range of 2020 selloff onto its initial peak in Spring a year later.   It makes some sense that we have revise such prices to confirm this whole area as long term valid not just part of a bull run where too many speculators have sold off their holdings.
   Its fairly typical that the initial run in any pricing will not hold without a proper test for actual holders over the long term.  Clearly we've found a large difference from those who will buy to speculate and the portion of the market that will trade, use and retain BTC on their balance sheet to any extent.  The most reliable holders are the distributed masses in very small amounts across numerous wallets.

[S A KHAIR]

This behavior is expected, it is normal for whales to try to push the price down to get Bitcoin at the lowest prices, especially during the festive period when the movement is almost at a standstill.

But the question is how far will they continue to push the price down? This is not clear.

In any case, for the long-term investor, this is not important because he set a goal and will not sell before achieving the goal. As for the speculator, he must be careful and stay away from the market in the current period, at least until the beginning of the new year, when some movement is expected in the market.

I am a long term investor, but i speculate aswell to maximise my accumulation. I'm sure there are many like me, not everyone being either an investor or trader only.

Me, I am a long-term investor and what I want is for bitcoin to drop more, as much as possible, because I want to own cheap bitcoin. I don't want bitcoin to rise again too soon. A lot of people are expecting bitcoin to increase in price in the new year, but I am expecting the opposite, and I am glad that many people believe bitcoin will rise again. Because I see bitcoin always tends to go against the crowd, and this time I hope it will repeat.

[Yatsan]

We cannot really help it. The market is down before holidays so it would be hard to flip it to a positive one during the said period. Also, the factors which affected and yield to bearish market is still being felt or are still existing at the present. More likely, the chance would be for next year but that does not assure recovery but for sure many of us hope for such thing because this industry will have a hard time to recover afterwards.

This behavior is expected, it is normal for whales to try to push the price down to get Bitcoin at the lowest prices, especially during the festive period when the movement is almost at a standstill.

But the question is how far will they continue to push the price down? This is not clear.

In any case, for the long-term investor, this is not important because he set a goal and will not sell before achieving the goal. As for the speculator, he must be careful and stay away from the market in the current period, at least until the beginning of the new year, when some movement is expected in the market.

I am a long term investor, but i speculate aswell to maximise my accumulation. I'm sure there are many like me, not everyone being either an investor or trader only.

Me, I am a long-term investor and what I want is for bitcoin to drop more, as much as possible, because I want to own cheap bitcoin. I don't want bitcoin to rise again too soon. A lot of people are expecting bitcoin to increase in price in the new year, but I am expecting the opposite, and I am glad that many people believe bitcoin will rise again. Because I see bitcoin always tends to go against the crowd, and this time I hope it will repeat.

Good for you that you can afford seeing how the market behaves right now. This is simply the advantage of long term holding because it would somehow save you from bigger worries caused by a change on the market prices of crypto from time to time.

[Ziskinberg]

Looking at the orderbook, the whales are trying to push the price down, taking advantage of low liquidity during holiday times, especially on coinbase

My latest video goes through each exchange to see where and how the price is being pushed around

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x78YQP-FxyM

It is sometimes hard to accept the reality but I see this event happen in the past holiday season. However, I don't make myself worried about the current situation as this will come to an end someday.

I'd see the economic crisis continue which has a huge impact on our financial capabilities bringing some limitations to investment. We are leaving the year 2022 a few hours from now (forum time) but see no changes since the market, still remains bearish. It is really hard to speculate how long that we are in this situation - red market.

[bestcoins1]

Me, I am a long-term investor and what I want is for bitcoin to drop more, as much as possible, because I want to own cheap bitcoin. I don't want bitcoin to rise again too soon. A lot of people are expecting bitcoin to increase in price in the new year, but I am expecting the opposite, and I am glad that many people believe bitcoin will rise again. Because I see bitcoin always tends to go against the crowd, and this time I hope it will repeat.

Those who hope for an increase in Bitcoin are those who have had time to buy when the price of Bitcoin is cheap, so it's only natural that they expect an increase because they already have Bitcoin in their wallet, while those of you who expect the opposite is to get Bitcoin at a cheap price because you still don't dare to buy at the current price or may not have time to buy at a time when the Bitcoin price is cheaper than the current price. So there is nothing wrong with any expectation of some people in Bitcoin for now because in the end you will also be happy with the improvement in Bitcoin.

[_BlackStar]

It is sometimes hard to accept the reality but I see this event happen in the past holiday season. However, I don't make myself worried about the current situation as this will come to an end someday.

I'd see the economic crisis continue which has a huge impact on our financial capabilities bringing some limitations to investment. We are leaving the year 2022 a few hours from now (forum time) but see no changes since the market, still remains bearish. It is really hard to speculate how long that we are in this situation - red market.

Yes, we are still in a bear market at the moment. There hasn't been much movement and it's been going on for a while. We are also still at -76% since last year's ATH, possibly more dumps in the event of a recession.

Anyway, I can say the market looks saturated at the moment, traders and investors seem more patient and avoid panic when facing certain moments such as Christmas celebrations and the end of the year. But I still hope a lot that we can look forward to the price movement in 2023 or to be precise in Q1. I don't expect $10K to take a hit in the event of a recession, but of course we can't prevent it any more than we can.

[maydna]

While bitcoin still looks bearish, it will surely be replaced by bullish ones, and maybe in 2023, that will all start to change. And it seems we still have to be patient in waiting for price changes in the market, and don't be afraid if the market experiences another correction because that's what usually happens. And I'm sure many people will still be waiting for the market to return in a better direction. They still buy many potential coins besides bitcoin because they also believe the crypto market will get better again.

[S A KHAIR]

Me, I am a long-term investor and what I want is for bitcoin to drop more, as much as possible, because I want to own cheap bitcoin. I don't want bitcoin to rise again too soon. A lot of people are expecting bitcoin to increase in price in the new year, but I am expecting the opposite, and I am glad that many people believe bitcoin will rise again. Because I see bitcoin always tends to go against the crowd, and this time I hope it will repeat.

Those who hope for an increase in Bitcoin are those who have had time to buy when the price of Bitcoin is cheap, so it's only natural that they expect an increase because they already have Bitcoin in their wallet, while those of you who expect the opposite is to get Bitcoin at a cheap price because you still don't dare to buy at the current price or may not have time to buy at a time when the Bitcoin price is cheaper than the current price. So there is nothing wrong with any expectation of some people in Bitcoin for now because in the end you will also be happy with the improvement in Bitcoin.

If bitcoin goes up from now on, I will still be profitable because I already have some bitcoins at 17k, but I want it to drop more, I want to own more. Because once bitcoin bounces back, I believe we won't have a chance to see $16k worth of bitcoins again. In 2018 when bitcoins were at 3k, people who didn't buy them never had a chance, and now we have also run out of opportunities to buy bitcoins for 3k.
Do you prefer 100% profit or 200% profit, or 300% profit? The more bitcoin falls, the more profit we have.

[GeorgeJohn]

Bitcoin as i said before now in other thread, the Bitcoin price is not longer trustworthy, shall i know that since the existence of bitcoin it never be trustworthy, and i from my observation it seems that Bitcoin price will continue fall and when it can get it resistance, should be by the middle of the year 2023, so in another way round let us believe that we will have investors.

[Mpamaegbu]

Honestly speaking, I long expected that price will stay down around the holidays and that's simply because this is the period most investors tend to take out profit to be with families. Holidaying with families involves spending cash. Going forward, I expect price to continue to rally down throughout this January. Any bullish momentum observed should be seen as a bull trap.

[AakZaki]

people are still enjoying their holidays and the market of course still hasn't moved significantly. Before the winter holidays investors start to take their profits for the cost of vacationing and relaxing. In January 2023, I think the market price will remain the same and tend to go down, purchasing power is still not able to provide a bullish market. You have to be patient and keep monitoring the market price, if it keeps dropping it's the right time to buy.

[Quidat]

people are still enjoying their holidays and the market of course still hasn't moved significantly. Before the winter holidays investors start to take their profits for the cost of vacationing and relaxing. In January 2023, I think the market price will remain the same and tend to go down, purchasing power is still not able to provide a bullish market. You have to be patient and keep monitoring the market price, if it keeps dropping it's the right time to buy.

Just like before on which every holiday season or when we are approaching the last months of the year is really making out some significant movement but now it seems that they arent really that
making such movement but rather it is really just staying on where it is and after all the years had passed then im not already anticipating nor expecting myself to be on that way
because market could neither make a move or not.It is really just you cant blame out people on having this kind of impression considering that it do make out
some recognizable movement back in the past which it cant really be avoided not for you to expect.

[AakZaki]

Just like before on which every holiday season or when we are approaching the last months of the year is really making out some significant movement but now it seems that they arent really that
making such movement but rather it is really just staying on where it is and after all the years had passed then im not already anticipating nor expecting myself to be on that way
because market could neither make a move or not.It is really just you cant blame out people on having this kind of impression considering that it do make out
some recognizable movement back in the past which it cant really be avoided not for you to expect.

More likely to hold and stagnate at the current price. The best thing to do right now is to monitor the market sentiment and what will happen. If there are several strong FUDs that appear, they will tend to go down and we must be prepared with the reserve money we have to buy again. some past cycles will probably occur, but of course, there will be differences because each cycle will not be exactly the same. Expecting a bullish market to arrive soon even though the last ATH is still unable to pass.