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Author Topic: New Contest  (Read 2321 times)
cypherdoc
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December 12, 2011, 05:17:04 AM
 #1

ok, lets do this.

at 8:00pm tomorrow nite, Monday 12/12, i will note the mtgoxlive price out to its normally displayed 5 decimal place as in 3.22400.  it will be my discretion as to which winning price i end up choosing in the 60 sec btwn 8:00 and 8:01pm altho i will try to take note of it at 8:00:00 pm.  the only reason i'm hedging is just in case i'm distracted by something else at that precise time.  and if i'm busy and miss it completely i will attempt to glean the winning price from all participants or we'll just have to do it again.

if you wish to compete for the 1 BTC, you may guess at what price it will be at that time and leave your btc address in your post.  this thread will keep track of who guessed what price.  if you want the whole btc, you'll avoid overlapping a price with someone else.  if you really want to guess a certain price that someone already has, then you'll just have to split the 1 BTC with however many ppl overlap you if you are right.

i leave it up to S3052 if he wants to throw his 1 BTC in as well.  if you see a problem let me know now.

edit:  1 guess per person.  you have to have a minimum of 50 posts to participate (prevent someone from setting up new accts just to get a guess).  I stop taking guesses at 7:00 pm tomorrow so i have a chance to tally.  doesn't matter if you go over; just whoever is closest.  Pacific Std Time.
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S3052
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December 12, 2011, 05:28:22 AM
 #2

1 BTC thrown in by me

Revalin
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December 12, 2011, 05:29:28 AM
 #3

What time zone?

      War is God's way of teaching Americans geography.  --Ambrose Bierce
Bitcoin is the Devil's way of teaching geeks economics.  --Revalin 165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g
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December 12, 2011, 05:32:12 AM
 #4

1GAw8pCEfcFYm9KrpWEQyQKy1dCwgNmGZy

3.29999

is this like the price is right, closest without going over wins?
by what time does my vote have to be cast? can i put in my vote 5 mins b4 8:00 tomorrow?

cypherdoc
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December 12, 2011, 05:35:56 AM
 #5

look at op; added a few conditions.
bittenbob
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December 12, 2011, 05:37:27 AM
 #6

3.24555
1GZQ3UfEoooLQV5BfWF65aEkUivm5mXcUw
julz
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December 12, 2011, 05:46:55 AM
 #7

3.32888

15pStXDj67o6AAet9RNJwGNxm9h6Vu75pM


@electricwings   BM-GtyD5exuDJ2kvEbr41XchkC8x9hPxdFd
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December 12, 2011, 05:49:46 AM
 #8

You can get an exact quote here:  http://bitcoincharts.com/t/trades.csv?symbol=mtgoxUSD&start=1323748785&end=1323748815

It'll give you all trades for Mon Dec 12 20:00:00 -0800 2011 +/- 15 seconds.  I suggest whichever one is immediately before 1323748800.  Note that it runs on a bit of a delay.

Edit: And I guess 3.23151.  Smiley

      War is God's way of teaching Americans geography.  --Ambrose Bierce
Bitcoin is the Devil's way of teaching geeks economics.  --Revalin 165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g
trogdorjw73
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December 12, 2011, 05:50:07 AM
 #9

1AhFbcdwU4TDg3rr1wk4TstRwFZfDXNFvg

3.15935

cypherdoc
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December 12, 2011, 05:54:39 AM
 #10

You can get an exact quote here:  http://bitcoincharts.com/t/trades.csv?symbol=mtgoxUSD&start=1323748785&end=1323748815

It'll give you all trades for Mon Dec 12 20:00:00 -0800 2011 +/- 15 seconds.  I suggest whichever one is immediately before 1323748800.  Note that it runs on a bit of a delay.

thats a good idea.  we'll use that.  but what is "1323748800"?
Revalin
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December 12, 2011, 06:02:56 AM
 #11

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unix_time

tl;dr: Unix stores time as the number of seconds since Midnight, Jan 1, 1970 (GMT/UTC).  1323748800 is 20:00:00 PST tomorrow.  The start= and end= in the URL are 15 seconds before and after that point.  When you get data, the timestamps will be the first thing on each line.

Example: http://bitcoincharts.com/t/trades.csv?symbol=mtgoxUSD&start=1323648785&end=1323648815

You'll get CSV sets of [unix time, price, quantity].

Edit: Handy converter: http://www.perturb.org/code/js-unixtime.html

      War is God's way of teaching Americans geography.  --Ambrose Bierce
Bitcoin is the Devil's way of teaching geeks economics.  --Revalin 165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g
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December 12, 2011, 06:12:50 AM
 #12

Also: which side of the spread are we guessing?  Buy, sell, or pure luck of whichever order posts just before the buzzer?

      War is God's way of teaching Americans geography.  --Ambrose Bierce
Bitcoin is the Devil's way of teaching geeks economics.  --Revalin 165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g
jimbobway
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December 12, 2011, 06:26:35 AM
 #13

3.80000

1JAUWs58hxrHq7uxszgdt25VLt5Fk5pUjy
BurtW
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December 12, 2011, 06:31:34 AM
 #14

3.14159 - my lucky number

1BurtWEejbnKeBRsvcydJvsNztB1bXV5iQ


Our family was terrorized by Homeland Security.  Read all about it here:  http://www.jmwagner.com/ and http://www.burtw.com/  Any donations to help us recover from the $300,000 in legal fees and forced donations to the Federal Asset Forfeiture slush fund are greatly appreciated!
finway
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December 12, 2011, 06:32:02 AM
 #15

3.46666
1CchVM1AfdGQvhioYeqbwguUBHnyddtXkW

LightRider
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I advocate the Zeitgeist Movement & Venus Project.


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December 12, 2011, 08:33:00 AM
 #16

3.09

Address in sig.

Bitcoin combines money, the wrongest thing in the world, with software, the easiest thing in the world to get wrong.
Visit www.thevenusproject.com and www.theZeitgeistMovement.com.
P4man
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December 12, 2011, 08:42:18 AM
 #17

You should have a longer period between posting deadline and price estimate. Its kinda stupid to guess now when you can post your guess up to 1 hour before the deadline. But hey, Il be stupid and post my guess now:

3.2020202

12qLqDrUT1RvsvnKkFNubnJSs8JEQH5sCN

cypherdoc
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December 12, 2011, 04:57:12 PM
 #18

i will lock the thread at 7pm tonite to prevent anyone changing his guess.  i will also try to take the last settled price at 8pm.
trogdorjw73
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December 12, 2011, 05:19:40 PM
 #19

I'd say lock the thread now; the longer you wait, the closer we are to the deadline, and the easier it becomes to be "right". Those who guessed 22 hours before the deadline are going to have to be a lot luckier (or whatever) than those who guess one hour before close.

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December 12, 2011, 05:31:04 PM
 #20

I'll guess 3.10

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BTCurious
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December 12, 2011, 07:05:52 PM
 #21

3.12312312

Any address in sig will do.

farfiman
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December 12, 2011, 07:11:20 PM
 #22

3.04444

1MZx357xF1454zFAgRH6GFWRijrhK4eLDA


"We are just fools. We insanely believe that we can replace one politician with another and something will really change. The ONLY possible way to achieve change is to change the very system of how government functions. Until we are prepared to do that, suck it up for your future belongs to the madness and corruption of politicians."
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December 12, 2011, 08:21:43 PM
 #23

3.13246

address in sig

1DxP5iL6hN5Gd3cwmDz9uFSntW8ALBQaGK

http://gamerkeys.net/common/home.htm <- the best place to get games!

my portfoio: http://windowsofamind.com
adamstgBit
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December 12, 2011, 08:43:44 PM
 #24

I'd say lock the thread now; the longer you wait, the closer we are to the deadline, and the easier it becomes to be "right". Those who guessed 22 hours before the deadline are going to have to be a lot luckier (or whatever) than those who guess one hour before close.

 i plan to edit my post last min  Cheesy

Vandroiy
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December 12, 2011, 08:55:40 PM
 #25

Pacific Std Time.

I just wanted to make a post quoting this for its randomness.

Why didn't you choose 8 am to place the date barrier at Greenwich? Then, I might have found it a funny trolling attempt, as people start debating why the other half posts on the wrong date.

Edit: lol, nevermind, I think you're doing this quite well already. Saying "tomorrow" in UTC-8 at the evening, when it was already the 12th for the rest of the world... Grin

Deadline: 2011-12-13 4:00 UTC.
btc_artist
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Bitcoin!


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December 12, 2011, 09:04:11 PM
 #26

3.18062

1CDCLDBHbAzHyYUkk1wYHPYmrtDZNhk8zf

Thanks!

BTC: 1CDCLDBHbAzHyYUkk1wYHPYmrtDZNhk8zf
LTC: LMS7SqZJnqzxo76iDSEua33WCyYZdjaQoE
adamstgBit
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December 12, 2011, 10:04:34 PM
 #27

Pacific Std Time.

I just wanted to make a post quoting this for its randomness.

Why didn't you choose 8 am to place the date barrier at Greenwich? Then, I might have found it a funny trolling attempt, as people start debating why the other half posts on the wrong date.

Edit: lol, nevermind, I think you're doing this quite well already. Saying "tomorrow" in UTC-8 at the evening, when it was already the 12th for the rest of the world... Grin

Deadline: 2011-12-13 4:00 UTC.

I'm trying to figure this out .. so the deadline is:

2011-12-12 8:00pm Pacific Std Time.
2011-12-12 11:00pm Eastern Time (my time zone)
2011-12-13 4:00am UTC

edit: wait isn't the deadline 1 hour b4 the time of prediction!?

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December 12, 2011, 10:53:21 PM
 #28

I'd say lock the thread now; the longer you wait, the closer we are to the deadline, and the easier it becomes to be "right". Those who guessed 22 hours before the deadline are going to have to be a lot luckier (or whatever) than those who guess one hour before close.

I say its a good time to lock in the bets. Anything closer than 5 hours and more recent guessers have too good of a chance.

Please lock the thread until after the deadline.
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December 13, 2011, 12:18:53 AM
 #29

3.06500
(sneaking in my bet)
1PMkySQc5Wm5Hd5W3HUSfkvLoqxjTkvdMc
michaelmclees
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December 13, 2011, 01:38:44 AM
 #30

3.34232
mjcmurfy
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December 13, 2011, 01:42:48 AM
 #31

I'd say lock the thread now; the longer you wait, the closer we are to the deadline, and the easier it becomes to be "right". Those who guessed 22 hours before the deadline are going to have to be a lot luckier (or whatever) than those who guess one hour before close.

I say its a good time to lock in the bets. Anything closer than 5 hours and more recent guessers have too good of a chance.

Please lock the thread until after the deadline.

LOL!
Why didn't you both do the smart thing and wait until closer to the deadline before entering your guesses?
The rules were clearly stated from the outset - the thread will be locked at 7pm PST.

http://www.bitcointorrentz.com/images/bct_button_117_30.png - BitCoinTorrentz.com: High-speed HTTP torrent downloads. 0.05 btc/gb. Up to 50% discount with free membership!
marhjan
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December 13, 2011, 01:45:29 AM
 #32

3.19736

1CYXeDtweeubVmn5RETWDVwbuc7BgCP8bM

Thanks ;-)

Donations happily accepted @ 15qxNsc7pBiz5kXpAJykw4etzMbZitm2mk
cypherdoc
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December 13, 2011, 04:09:43 AM
 #33

looks like Goat is the winner, am I right?

.00751 difference from price of 3.23151
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