Possible fakeout due debt ceiling not priced in

[takuma sato]

The debt ceiling clusterfuck will start in the following months. Checks in right at the breakout of the SP500 and the BTC chart, as well as the dollar bouncing off its main trendline, may cause a hawkish move by the FED.

So both the fundamentals and the technicals check in for a fakeout which would wipe contrarians trying to go long on this thesis. We'll see something in the coming weeks.

[adaseb]

We all know what will happen with the debt ceiling. And same with the FOMC rate. I think both of these events are priced in. Right now it seems we are heading for a soft landing hence why everything is pumping, stocks and both crypto.

I am expecting an echo bubble of some sort for stocks and crypto. Most likely might end in $35-40K and then will start to head back down. We need a black swan event if stocks or crypto are to head lower.

[philipma1957]

This is priced in as follows.

0.25 on Jan 31- Feb 1

no debt fix for at least all of feb.

0.25 around March 15th

do debt fix all of March.

April 1 zero ideas. some wild guesses below:

Black swan event would Russia wins war with Ukraine and kills 5 to 10 million Ukraine 🇺🇦 people.
A real crashing bear market.


White swan event would be putin and the correct two or three generals die.
Russia leaves Ukraine 🇺🇦 offers to pay war damages. = huge bull rally world wide

[hugeblack]

The government can operate as a reserve until June, when the closure may occur, but the issue of the debt ceiling is purely political and will not greatly affect the economy, given the government's ability to borrow without retroactive effect.
I created this thread about the debt ceiling, you can read it here ----> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5432143.msg61509448#msg61509448

Therefore, there is no great economic dependence on this issue, and I do not think that politicians will be that stupid to make America default.

[retreat]

And it seems that the problem regarding the debt ceiling is just an ordinary political issue and you don't need to worry too much about it and also in my opinion it doesn't have too much of a significant impact on the general American economy. However, this is also a problem that cannot be taken lightly, bearing in mind that by raising the debt ceiling, it means that the amount of government debt will increase and this will become a burden in the future. But if the Joe Biden administration and the Republicans can meet on this issue, it will provide a breath of fresh air to the American economy and will avoid a much bigger crisis.

[OgNasty]

People always overreact about the debt ceiling. They’re obviously going to raise it or play some games to be able to spend more. Nothing will change. This happens all the time and nothing ever comes of it. The only thing you really need to know is that an unfathomable amount of money has been added to the money supply over the last 3 years and will impact prices for a decade or more.

[STT]

Its priced in on the horizon but can always get worse as we approach.  Same for all relatively major finance news, I think 2023 has enough turbulence overall to keep us moderated in price to just similar range to 2022.   That would be positive to some and disappointing to others, revision of prior pricing is a good thing overall but a bit boring compared to soaring to the moon I guess.   2023 will be a consolidation year, necessary to do.