The Start of a Bull Season on Bitcoin? Or a Trap?

[dimonstration]

I am following markets closely since this big jump happened. I feel like its too good to be bull trap. In bull traps demand would be inconsistent and unbalanced, making price fluctate a lot. But with this move, it felt like some people literally filled their wallets to get ready for greater bull run in next halving period. I think we will all realize if this was trap or not in next 45 days. I would bet my money on it being real start of bull run honestly. I can't say further increases will happen that soon as well, demand can be limited for such short time window. But people would be less interested in selling/shorting.

Are you serious about your statement and all the data you provided especially the 45 days test to determine if this is not a bull trap or not? Do you realize that the current price fluctuation only occurred less than 2 weeks while the price is now on sideways in a low time frame? It will just take a few days after the 2nd weekly candle to determine whether this movement is a bull trap or not. Try to view the chart in a longer time frame before you make such a comment about the current condition of Bitcoin price. There's a high chance for a bull trap instead of a continuous rally if the weekly candle closes below 21k. This kind of relief rally always follow by quick dump on following weeks if my assumption is correct with this price behavior.

[Baofeng]

I am following markets closely since this big jump happened. I feel like its too good to be bull trap. In bull traps demand would be inconsistent and unbalanced, making price fluctate a lot. But with this move, it felt like some people literally filled their wallets to get ready for greater bull run in next halving period. I think we will all realize if this was trap or not in next 45 days. I would bet my money on it being real start of bull run honestly. I can't say further increases will happen that soon as well, demand can be limited for such short time window. But people would be less interested in selling/shorting.

Are you serious about your statement and all the data you provided especially the 45 days test to determine if this is not a bull trap or not? Do you realize that the current price fluctuation only occurred less than 2 weeks while the price is now on sideways in a low time frame? It will just take a few days after the 2nd weekly candle to determine whether this movement is a bull trap or not. Try to view the chart in a longer time frame before you make such a comment about the current condition of Bitcoin price. There's a high chance for a bull trap instead of a continuous rally if the weekly candle closes below 21k. This kind of relief rally always follow by quick dump on following weeks if my assumption is correct with this price behavior.

Right, and we have seen a quick dump when it went from $21,500-$20,800 if I'm not mistaken. And yes 45 days? Lol, that's not a good indication for a bull trap or bull run because of the market's volatility, a good 2 weeks is already enough to determined with direction we are going to take.

So far the price is again above $21k which means the bear is back on the market and taking over again after a dump.

And so we might see a continues rally again till the end of the month and see where we are.

[rhomelmabini]

What do you think?

Historically, bull run has steady phase before the next halving and I'm not being optimistic until we've break some major resistance above $21k. We might see sideways market from here on out, I'm just too optimistic 2024 would feel different so I'm still in DCA mode. For me, I'm just being simple here and breaking resistance/support is my green flag on where the market is heading.

[doomloop]

now the price is dropping dramatically, yesterday it had reached a high of $ 21,400. The market is also getting saturated, already overbought, so it's time to go down and try to go down to the nearest support. gradually the price continues to fall and if it passes $20k it will continue towards $19k.
The movement at the beginning of the year was indeed quite significant, but the correction that will occur will also be deeper. The halving is still a long way off and this year may be a year that doesn't have too much movement.

Since the increase in the last week bitcoin has not decreased very drastically it is still trying to survive at the price level of $ 20,700 but I don't know if this is really a bull-trap or will continue to try at the same level but in terms of graphics bitcoin is still quite strong in $20,000 threshold.
Well I believe this correction will definitely happen but with the movement in 2023 it won't go more than ATH before we still haven't passed the halving in 2024 so maybe it will stay at the $20k or $30k level.

We have been at $20k for a few days now or weeks so I think this wasn't a bull trap anymore. If it's a bull trap then we already go back to $17k or even drop lower than that long time ago. It seems that the history repeats itself again. $20k should be our new support and then later on we will rise up to $24k and will do an attempt to hit $25k.

If it's a success then we should rise continuously. Corrections can happen as it was part of how this marker works but I think it's different from a bull trap right? Because why their terms are not the same then. I too believe that we won't past the ATH this year but I am positive that we will surpass the $30k level.

[bitgolden]

we have seen a quick dump when it went from $21,500-$20,800 if I'm not mistaken. And yes 45 days? Lol, that's not a good indication for a bull trap or bull run because of the market's volatility, a good 2 weeks is already enough to determined with direction we are going to take.

So far the price is again above $21k which means the bear is back on the market and taking over again after a dump.

And so we might see a continues rally again till the end of the month and see where we are.

I agree that we shouldn't make calculations from every movement, is this something that gives us a message on which direction it goes? Maybe, it could be or maybe it isn't and we still do not know. We shouldn't try to read the market just from a few things, it will cause us to lose a lot of money if we try to trade based on every single movement.

It is better to just let it be for a while and we could just calculate it later on when it shows itself a little bit more. If it reaches to 23k and then 25k, then it is obviously a bull run, and it was a bull run since 17k, if it goes down to 18k again then it wasn2t. We just need to give it some more time.

[ivankoh]

I don't think these New Year's positives are a trap, it's the natural driver of the bitcoin trend.  I'm not sure if the winter bear market will actually dissipate, that's just part of the optimism about the market's recovery.  Next time will prove it but clearly the market is not in the bull season yet

[Yaunfitda]

I don't think these New Year's positives are a trap, it's the natural driver of the bitcoin trend.  I'm not sure if the winter bear market will actually dissipate, that's just part of the optimism about the market's recovery.  Next time will prove it but clearly the market is not in the bull season yet

Yeah, I think everyone is very positive with the movement this January, we have touch $23k already. So that is big jump from our lowest low of $15,500. But it seems that $23k is a big barrier that we have to break at this point.

But in any case, even if we remain at $22k, still very good price as the bear market might be over for now.

Let's just remain optimistic for 2023, and hope no events this year like the FTX or Terra Luna will happen so that the market will have a smooth ride to $30k and higher price.

[traderethereum]

I don't think these New Year's positives are a trap, it's the natural driver of the bitcoin trend.  I'm not sure if the winter bear market will actually dissipate, that's just part of the optimism about the market's recovery.  Next time will prove it but clearly the market is not in the bull season yet

I also thought that, maybe it really was time for bitcoin to start increasing and finally to this point bitcoin has been above $20k.
This $22k figure is very good because bitcoin can already start to recover even though it will still be difficult to reach a bullish season and we don't know when.
But this gives us hope, especially new people who don't know about the bitcoin cycle or are confused about the price that hasn't started to rise high again.
And bitcoin is currently trying to come back on the defensive after a correction came into the market again.

[wxa7115]

I don't think these New Year's positives are a trap, it's the natural driver of the bitcoin trend.  I'm not sure if the winter bear market will actually dissipate, that's just part of the optimism about the market's recovery.  Next time will prove it but clearly the market is not in the bull season yet

I also thought that, maybe it really was time for bitcoin to start increasing and finally to this point bitcoin has been above $20k.
This $22k figure is very good because bitcoin can already start to recover even though it will still be difficult to reach a bullish season and we don't know when.
But this gives us hope, especially new people who don't know about the bitcoin cycle or are confused about the price that hasn't started to rise high again.
And bitcoin is currently trying to come back on the defensive after a correction came into the market again.

I am ready to admit I was wrong, I thought a decrease in the price was imminent as the recovery we were experimenting was too fast for my tastes, but even if there was a small decrease a day ago it was nothing like what I expected it could happen.

At this stage I ask myself how high the price will go before we see a stronger pullback? Because even if the growth is welcome it is difficult for me to believe we could make such fast transition between a bear market and a bullish one.

[Joshapat]

I believe that the difficult situation has passed, after the FTX case ended with investors crying, now is the time to be more vigilant and choose exchanges, it's better to use exchanges for instant transactions, don't store large amounts of assets because bad things can happen, at least there isn't negative sentiment yet which makes the market panic so naturally bitcoin will continue to grow positively in 2023.

[DOH!]

I believe that the difficult situation has passed, after the FTX case ended with investors crying, now is the time to be more vigilant and choose exchanges, it's better to use exchanges for instant transactions, don't store large amounts of assets because bad things can happen, at least there isn't negative sentiment yet which makes the market panic so naturally bitcoin will continue to grow positively in 2023.

Yah, Bitcoin has always had momentum and strength in the market but there is always time for a recovery and consolidation. A lot of pain to the market has taken place, which is a hard fact to accept. I believe the power and confidence of the decentralized exchange is coming very close after the fall of FTX. Form a belief and optimism back only bitcoin generates. I think the market will move sideways for a few days before there is a better recovery movement.

[nimogsm]

I believe that the difficult situation has passed, after the FTX case ended with investors crying, now is the time to be more vigilant and choose exchanges, it's better to use exchanges for instant transactions, don't store large amounts of assets because bad things can happen, at least there isn't negative sentiment yet which makes the market panic so naturally bitcoin will continue to grow positively in 2023.

Investors' confidence in the exchanges is returning thanks to a public report on their reserves.And users start their media on the exchange again.While the biggest interest is in bitcoin, alternative coins have not been much in demand lately.The main thing is to keep the level above 23k and then we can expect further growth.

[kawetsriyanto]

I don't think these New Year's positives are a trap, it's the natural driver of the bitcoin trend.  I'm not sure if the winter bear market will actually dissipate, that's just part of the optimism about the market's recovery.  Next time will prove it but clearly the market is not in the bull season yet

I think you are right. It looks like the positive trend in the early 2023 is natural, it is likely not a fake or a trap. In fact, the price of Bitcoin and most altcoins still continue to increase until now, no big dump so far. Even, Bitcoin price can survive above $23k and seems to try achieving $25k as soon as possible. If it is a trap, after the big pump in early January, we already see some dumps now. But until now, crypto trend looks good and no significant bad news. So, the price of crypto coins to stay positive increasing more. However, it is true that the bearish season isn't over yet, it probably ends in the next year.

[Dave1]

I am following markets closely since this big jump happened. I feel like its too good to be bull trap. In bull traps demand would be inconsistent and unbalanced, making price fluctate a lot. But with this move, it felt like some people literally filled their wallets to get ready for greater bull run in next halving period. I think we will all realize if this was trap or not in next 45 days. I would bet my money on it being real start of bull run honestly. I can't say further increases will happen that soon as well, demand can be limited for such short time window. But people would be less interested in selling/shorting.

Yes, and as far as I can understand in a bull trap, the increased will not last this long. But in our case, since the start of January, we are in a continues spike so just maybe we are not in a bull trap anymore. Maybe in the beginning, we have doubts that this could just be a trap set up by the bears.

45 days though is long enough to realized if we are in a bull trap or not, just saying.

Let's see how long can we sustained this run though, it's $21,500, now we are back into the $21'ish range again.

We have sustained it already since you last post and we even had to breach $23k already, so yeah, is not bear trap and we don't know how long will this because it seems to be a sustainable run to $25k at least, or that's where I'm seeing this bull run that we are witnessing.

Although it's crazy, we just started this year and then from $16k-$23k, that is a huge increased and we don't know where the buyer is coming from. I'm just hinting that those who went out and sold at $16k is trying to get back at the market again.

[ethereumhunter]

I don't think these New Year's positives are a trap, it's the natural driver of the bitcoin trend.  I'm not sure if the winter bear market will actually dissipate, that's just part of the optimism about the market's recovery.  Next time will prove it but clearly the market is not in the bull season yet

I think you are right. It looks like the positive trend in the early 2023 is natural, it is likely not a fake or a trap. In fact, the price of Bitcoin and most altcoins still continue to increase until now, no big dump so far. Even, Bitcoin price can survive above $23k and seems to try achieving $25k as soon as possible. If it is a trap, after the big pump in early January, we already see some dumps now. But until now, crypto trend looks good and no significant bad news. So, the price of crypto coins to stay positive increasing more. However, it is true that the bearish season isn't over yet, it probably ends in the next year.

The market is currently still recovering and accumulating again, which is what many people did when the price was still lower. Those who can take advantage of this opportunity can be said to be very lucky because the price is still low and they can continue to hold their bitcoins until the price rises high. But I'm not sure that the $25k price will be reached soon, especially since we are already at the end of January. But there is a possibility that in the next month, the price can go up higher but we don't know how high the price can go up and if it does go up high, will there be a deep correction that might occur?

[$crypto$]

I believe that the difficult situation has passed, after the FTX case ended with investors crying, now is the time to be more vigilant and choose exchanges, it's better to use exchanges for instant transactions, don't store large amounts of assets because bad things can happen, at least there isn't negative sentiment yet which makes the market panic so naturally bitcoin will continue to grow positively in 2023.

Investors' confidence in the exchanges is returning thanks to a public report on their reserves.And users start their media on the exchange again.While the biggest interest is in bitcoin, alternative coins have not been much in demand lately.The main thing is to keep the level above 23k and then we can expect further growth.

Don't trust the public their reserves are still if we keep assets on the exchange it's not our money because they fully recognize it, so it's better to avoid knowing enough with the FTX collapse that once the money is gone it will never come back again.
Use a non-custodial remote wallet recommendation.
In theory investor interest in bitcoin has been around for a long time whereas for altcoins to create hype because they just come there to wait for it so I've always avoided any alternative coins because there's just no interest.

[Yamifoud]

The market is currently still recovering and accumulating again, which is what many people did when the price was still lower. Those who can take advantage of this opportunity can be said to be very lucky because the price is still low and they can continue to hold their bitcoins until the price rises high. But I'm not sure that the $25k price will be reached soon, especially since we are already at the end of January. But there is a possibility that in the next month, the price can go up higher but we don't know how high the price can go up and if it does go up high, will there be a deep correction that might occur?

The current situation is the result of a massive growth of investors during the price drop, it looks like those who never take their opportunity when the price is below $20k are now here to take the risk. Many people only have the courage to invest in Bitcoin when they see the price is increasing and this is what happens now. As long as these new investors will never dump their Bitcoin until we reach back to its peak again or just to say at least $40k, it is possible that in the next couple of month we never experience market correction but a continuous pump.

[Captain Corporate]

I still think that its just "about time" situation. Like we have been low for so long and in the bear market for over a year now, so people basically decided any small increase would be the start of the bull run, only because "its about time", like they are tired of waiting for it to go up, so they are making it go up. I don't know if that's the case or not, but that does feel like a reason for people to buy. How long could it stay low? How long do you think it could be under 25k for example? I do not think that it can stay under 25k for years, it has to be either anytime soon, or it could be in a matter of months at most, not a year. Which is why people are buying.

[Scripture]

I believe that the difficult situation has passed, after the FTX case ended with investors crying, now is the time to be more vigilant and choose exchanges, it's better to use exchanges for instant transactions, don't store large amounts of assets because bad things can happen, at least there isn't negative sentiment yet which makes the market panic so naturally bitcoin will continue to grow positively in 2023.

This is the start that the market will recover after all those issues in 2022, I think we already had enough of bear market and now, Bitcoin is taking over the market again and will about to boom.

This is not a trap, this is the real trend now and if you can’t see a good reason to buy, just search the price of Bitcoin on last halving, usually the pump happens a year before the halving and that time is right now so grab some now and stay positive for the whole yea.

[AmoreJaz]

I still think that its just "about time" situation. Like we have been low for so long and in the bear market for over a year now, so people basically decided any small increase would be the start of the bull run, only because "its about time", like they are tired of waiting for it to go up, so they are making it go up. I don't know if that's the case or not, but that does feel like a reason for people to buy. How long could it stay low? How long do you think it could be under 25k for example? I do not think that it can stay under 25k for years, it has to be either anytime soon, or it could be in a matter of months at most, not a year. Which is why people are buying.

to be honest, no one can know such duration. so yeah, if you do believe that it will go up anytime soon, as we've been in the low price level long enough, then, it is your prerogative to collect some for your portfolio.
it is your own decision how you will react on this market, as it is your own funds, you need to think of what is best for your portfolio.