Alik Bakhshi
Armenia is again in search of patrons Armenia once again found itself in the role of Buridan's donkey (1). This is some kind of obsession for the Armenian people, which can be traced throughout its history. The fact is that Armenia, refusing Russia as a strategic ally for a well-known reason, places great hopes on France, which in the future, according to Yerevan's idea, can replace Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh. France, as a country with the largest Armenian diaspora, undoubtedly influencing its policy, which was manifested in the adopted resolution condemning the allegedly aggressive actions of Azerbaijan against Armenia, in the opinion of Yerevan, is ideally suited as a peacemaker and patron. However, with such a biased attitude towards Azerbaijan, France is unlikely to get Baku's consent to send peacekeepers to Karabakh. On the other hand, the President of Azerbaijan explained that nothing threatens the Armenians living in Karabakh. They will have all civil rights, like the rest of the multinational population of Azerbaijan, and those who do not want to be citizens can leave the country without hindrance. That is, there is no need for peacekeepers.
I want to note one important circumstance regarding the peacekeeping mission. In my opinion, a fundamental error was made from the very beginning. Russia, as a strategic ally of Armenia, a priori should not have been a peacekeeper, or Turkey, which in turn is a strategic ally of Azerbaijan, should have also carried out a peacekeeping mission in Karabakh together with Russia. Only in such a variant would equal conditions be observed for both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Of course, it would be better to entrust the peacekeeping mission to a country that is, firstly, neutral, and secondly, which is neither Christian nor Muslim, for example, China or Japan, South Korea.
Whatever it was, the reality is that Armenia, which signed the final agreement two years ago in Moscow, has not violated its implementation on any point. Yerevan not only did not agree to the construction of a road connecting Nakhichevan with Baku, which was stipulated by the agreement, but also opposes the demarcation of borders, which is the main condition for normal relations with the neighboring state. There is only one conclusion from this - Armenia has not abandoned its territorial claims against Azerbaijan, but it cannot fulfill them alone after a devastating defeat. Moscow, because of the war in Ukraine, is not able to help Armenia, even if it wanted to, as was the case in the first Karabakh war. Undoubtedly, Armenia and Iran have good relations, and taking into account their common enemy in the region represented by Azerbaijan, they have every reason for military-political cooperation, but there are serious obstacles to this. Despite the seemingly already existing strategic axis Moscow-Yerevan-Tehran, Armenia is ready to break the strategic alliance with Moscow, which refused to help it in the war with Azerbaijan for the sake of an alliance with France. But in this case, Armenia will be forced to stop cooperation with Iran, which is helping Russia in the Ukrainian war, that is, it is an adversary for France, which supports Ukraine. The latest events related to the attack of either drones or missiles, either from Israel or from the territory of Azerbaijan to Iranian military facilities, put Armenia in a very delicate situation before choosing a patron. Thus, if Yerevan counts on France, it will be forced to break not only with Moscow, but also with Tehran. To look for Armenia in Iran as a replacement for Russia is generally absurd. Iran faces major internal problems, the theocratic regime will not last long. Those threats that Tehran throws out towards Saudi Arabia and Israel will return to him like a boomerang. Attacks on Iranian military facilities are just the beginning. It is quite possible that Iran will disintegrate even before Russia and South Azerbaijan with a population of 30-40 million will be reunited with its northern part.
I must say that seeing France as an ally, Armenia carries a big risk. The fact is that France as an ally is a very unreliable partner.
After Napoleon's Bonaparte, France seems to have forever lost the status of a strong European power. France was unable to resist England in the struggle for possession of North America, France was squeezed out of Algeria and Morocco, France lost all its colonies. Moreover, if England, having ceased to be an empire, reformatted its connection with the former colonies into the "Commonwealth of Nations", then France did not create anything similar. France left NATO, then returned, which indicates its fickleness as an ally. Keitel's words at the signing of the surrender are involuntarily recalled: "How, did these also defeat us?" By the way, the other day, President Macron announced that French peacekeepers were leaving Mali after almost a decade of presence in the country, where a civil war between government forces and Islamists continues. So, the Armenians should think hard before choosing France as a patron, especially a country far from the Middle East region. Wouldn’t it be better to leave the idea of creating by someone else’s hands the never-existing “Great Armenia” from sea to sea (2,3) and deal with the problem of peace with neighbors, otherwise you can regain the status of a people deprived of a state, as it has been for millennia.
I hope the Armenian people realize that there is no alternative to peace with neighbors and for this there is no need for intermediaries, it is enough to abandon the Nazi ideology of the “Dashnaktsutyun” and the myths about "Great Armenia". Imagine what it can lead to if, for example, Macedonia gathers to fight in the depths of centuries with the intention of reviving the empire of Alexander the Great, which is not a myth at all, and not a legend.
1. Armenia in the role of Buridan's donkey.
https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/58251.html 2. Were there "Great Armenia".
https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/71952.html 3. Great Armenia or Great Lie.
https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/91885.html 1.02.2023
