Ark Investment lanches report Big Ideas 2023: bitcoin price above 1mi in 2030

[ChiBitCTy]

I helped a couple buddies set up their Trezor wallets for the first time and one of them told me about ARK so I decided to buy a few shares of ARKK.  It's literally the only investment inside of my IRA's that is in the red lol.  I'm not sold on Cathie Wood at all.  She tends to make a lot of very speculative claims that I feel are a bit outlandish.  Like right now, I think predicting that bitcoin will hit 1 million per coin is insane.  How about we try and get to 100k first?  I'm a bit jaded I guess, being that her fund has been shit since I been in it.

[franky1]

everyone should know some basics about wholesale retail markets of bitcoin and value:premium windows the markets fit inside

if world costs of planetary minimal acquisition costs are X and planetary maximum costs are Y to mine 1 bitcoin
then the speculative market will speculate between those

after all who would pay a market premium if they can, even in most expensive mining cost country can mine for less or obtain in wholesale OTC markets for less. so the buyer premium top at the retail(spot) market has a top limit

2021 had a $10k to $75k limit and the market speculated $30k-$70k within that limit
2022 had a $15k to $90k limit and the market speculated $50k-$16k within that limit

for there to be even a possible $1,5m spot market price ATH
requires the wholesale/mining market window of value:premium to be above $1.5m

this is like a mining cost multiplier of 16x (current 90k top lifted to 1,5m)

..
obviously with efficiency gains this can become more then 16x mining cost increase.
but also inflation and electric costs can make the $$$ amount be inflated to not require real world energy increases of 16x and instead less than 16x energy usage. and instead just the cost of that less energy going up
..
so lets just stick with a 16x effort in 7 years
meaning ~2.3x a year
.. recent years has not seen a 2.3x of mining hashrate/cost per year.
but this can change as we have seen these large jumps in costs in other years

so in my view $1.5m is a stretch.. its "possible" but at a stretch

however a 2.6x window lift is easier to expect in 7 years. so yes $250k bitcoin could see a $250k+ in 7 years without much effort
though no guarantee.. just that the window of possible $250k is achievable without much effort

[boyptc]

I see people doubting Cathie Wood because of how she interacts with the people. It's obvious that she's a bitcoin maxi and it's almost looking like she's shilling it to everyone to buy bitcoin.

Yeah, as she's obviously bias, people are seeing that and we as bitcoin investors we understand where she's coming from. That prediction is high and 2 halvings will come before that year comes. 1 is for 2024 and the other is for 2028. Who knows if they're right.

Well, they'd say that about Saylor and just about any bull. It's very hard for investors to believe in such astronomical prices when we are in the middle of one of the worst bear markets we ever experienced.

Exactly.

But if we get there and they're right, it's a win for us and if we don't get there yet the price still goes up higher than it was with the last bull run, we're still at win.

Deep inside, I want to see those prices happen and having it still on my hand holding bitcoin by that time is surely going to be celebrated not just by me but by the majority.

[Lucius]

But that is not a blindly prediction, they made a report show where this money comes from. You can even see in the image I posted in the OP. Money will flow from 5 to 25% from remittances, 0,3% to 10% from emerging markets, etc

They're just speculating where the investment could come from, but that's an old story that's been around for as long as Bitcoin has existed. Even today, the comparison of gold and Bitcoin is very popular, especially when talking about the possibility that some investors decide to sell gold and buy BTC. If only 10% of the value of gold (market cap $12.36 trillion) was transferred to Bitcoin, what would happen to the price of the same?

The fact is that there is constant speculation about how various companies, funds or individuals will allocate part of their funds to Bitcoin, but wouldn't it be logical if they had already done so or are still doing it today? Some will say that maybe they are waiting for some kind of more favorable legal framework, but in most of the developed world, even today, there are no obstacles for someone to buy Bitcoin.

If I know the potential of Bitcoin and I have the means to invest today, why wait for the price to be x5 or x10 higher? Saylor must have regretted many times that ten years ago he believed that Bitcoin would fail, as well as many others who will realize the same in the next ten years.

[bitmover]

The fact is that there is constant speculation about how various companies, funds or individuals will allocate part of their funds to Bitcoin, but wouldn't it be logical if they had already done so or are still doing it today? Some will say that maybe they are waiting for some kind of more favorable legal framework, but in most of the developed world, even today, there are no obstacles for someone to buy Bitcoin.

In my opinion,  It is not a matter of obstacles,  but these things takes time.

For example, money flow from emerging markets. It takes times for those countries get their economies collapsed (like turkey and Argentina for example)   and people decide to go into bitcoin. Bitcoin is easier to buy now than it was 5 years ago.
And people don't want to go all in bitcoin, but in some situation that might be the only option i emerging markets.

now look at brazil situation.the new president (who was im jail for corruption a few years ago) wants to destroy our economy , create a common currency with argentina and venezuela and so on. but these things takes time.

People will take time to get convinced to invest a big part of their life savinga into bitcoin, use it for remittances, etc. It is not only a matter of obstacles to buy only

[cryptosize]

now look at brazil situation.the new president (who was im jail for corruption a few years ago) wants to destroy our economy , create a common currency with argentina and venezuela and so on.

He's the Biden of Brazil, right?

I'll never understand why people cheer for him...